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  1. #11311
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    On the one hand I agree - itís important to survey the landscape before making your move.

    That being said, Iím being stubborn about the Yankees and still expecting them to drop off at some point. Regardless of what we add, 1st is probably out of reach. So it comes down to if your willing to mortgage the future on a WC game.
    ^^ this exact reason is why Iím down to go all in on an Ace with some control. Ace+manoah piggy back can carry us through the WC, or set us up to have a torp in game 1 of the first round.
    Itís no longer a single game for wild cards though. 1st and 2nd WC face each other in a 3 game set while 3rd WC faces 3rd Division winner in a 3 game set. The need for arms both starters and relievers is real.
    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Facts can be hypothetical.

  2. #11312
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    Quote Originally Posted by wamco View Post
    I do hate rentals but Iíd do a robberse-Leo jimenez/hiraldo for a 2022 version of david price all goddamn day
    Prospects on that level, I'm fine trading for rentals. I just wouldn't want to see Orelvis, Moreno, Groshans or Tiedemann dealt for rentals. Specifically, I hope we don't trade Moreno or Tiedemann. But obviously that depends what would be coming back.

    We do have a lot of right handed infielders that probably will struggle to advance in our organization for a lack of opportunity. The names you mention would fit the mold of the players I'd like to see us dangle as well. Bullpen arms usually don't come with too heavy a cost, but the market doesn't look good this year in the early going. Might need to overpay to bring in some reinforcements soon.

    David Bednar is the type of reliever I'd love to see us target. 4 years of team control left for a high leverage reliever who is still 27 years old. There will be a premium to be paid for that of course. I'm curious if people would be comfortable including a player like Groshans in a deal for a back end reliever with term? Not sure Pittsburgh will deal him of course.
    Last edited by pebloemer; 06-27-2022 at 09:45 AM.

  3. #11313
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    Quote Originally Posted by pebloemer View Post
    Prospects on that level, I'm fine trading for rentals. I just wouldn't want to see Orelvis, Moreno, Groshans or Tiedemann dealt for rentals. Specifically, I hope we don't trade Moreno or Tiedemann. But obviously that depends what would be coming back.

    We do have a lot of right handed infielders that probably will struggle to advance in our organization for a lack of opportunity. The names you mention would fit the mold of the players I'd like to see us dangle as well. Bullpen arms usually don't come with too heavy a cost, but the market doesn't look good this year in the early going. Might need to overpay to bring in some reinforcements soon.

    David Bednar is the type of reliever I'd love to see us target. 4 years of team control left for a high leverage reliever who is still 27 years old. There will be a premium to be paid for that of course. I'm curious if people would be comfortable including a player like Groshans in a deal for a back end reliever with term? Not sure Pittsburgh will deal him of course.
    Iíd toss Groshans for Bednar but the likelihood of Pittsburg moving him is pretty low. The Pirates have just begun calling up their prospects so they might want to hold onto him. That and heís a hometown boy.
    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Facts can be hypothetical.

  4. #11314
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    Quote Originally Posted by R. Johnson#3 View Post
    Itís no longer a single game for wild cards though. 1st and 2nd WC face each other in a 3 game set while 3rd WC faces 3rd Division winner in a 3 game set. The need for arms both starters and relievers is real.
    Great point. I had a brain fart there.

    Definitely need to add another torp.
    Ace, manoah, whichever of gausman or berrios is pitching well at the end of the season

  5. #11315
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Great point. I had a brain fart there.

    Definitely need to add another torp.
    Ace, manoah, whichever of gausman or berrios is pitching well at the end of the season
    I'd be thrilled with a TORP, but I'm not sure I understand the concern for Gausman that often gets mentioned on the radio and in these forums. He has been pitching really great all year IMO. The numbers are really good for the season. And there are indicators that he's been a victim of bad defense or at the very least some unlikely batted ball luck this year.

    Obviously anything can happen before the end of the season. Berrios had a really consistent track record before this season and his game has fallen off a cliff. I knew Kikuchi and Ryu were question marks, but Berrios was definitely supposed to be that third guy. I really hope he starts to figure it out, because that is a long extension he is on...

  6. #11316
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    Quote Originally Posted by pebloemer View Post
    I'd be thrilled with a TORP, but I'm not sure I understand the concern for Gausman that often gets mentioned on the radio and in these forums. He has been pitching really great all year IMO. The numbers are really good for the season. And there are indicators that he's been a victim of bad defense or at the very least some unlikely batted ball luck this year.

    Obviously anything can happen before the end of the season. Berrios had a really consistent track record before this season and his game has fallen off a cliff. I knew Kikuchi and Ryu were question marks, but Berrios was definitely supposed to be that third guy. I really hope he starts to figure it out, because that is a long extension he is on...
    I think people are bracing for impact based off his splits from last year. He was lights out in the 1st half then got lit up in the 2nd half.
    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Facts can be hypothetical.

  7. #11317
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Great point. I had a brain fart there.

    Definitely need to add another torp.
    Ace, manoah, whichever of gausman or berrios is pitching well at the end of the season
    I canít imagine any aces will be available at the deadline. Then again it depends on what is considered to be an ace. Castillo and Montas are probably the top 2 arms unless a deal can be swung with the Marlins. Jose Quintana is another arm Iíd be interested in. Zac Gallen is another interesting arm that could be available who still has plenty years of control.
    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Facts can be hypothetical.

  8. #11318
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    Quote Originally Posted by R. Johnson#3 View Post
    I think people are bracing for impact based off his splits from last year. He was lights out in the 1st half then got lit up in the 2nd half.
    He was still a decent arm in the second half last year though, just not one of the Top 2-3 pitchers in all of baseball like he was in the first half. I don't think anyone expects him to be a 1.80 ERA guy like he was first half of last year. If we even out the numbers over a larger sample, we have a more project-able performance IMO. Over 350 innings, this year, last year and 2020, he sits as a low 3.00's ERA guy that is durable, can pitch deep into games, but occasionally will get hit around a bit because he is constantly attacking the zone and relies heavily on a fastball/splitter combination that hitters know is coming. It's kind of the exact guy we are seeing now I feel.

    To connect to your message above this, adding another guy capable of producing similar results in Montas or Castillo would definitely help tremendously.

  9. #11319
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    Quote Originally Posted by pebloemer View Post
    He was still a decent arm in the second half last year though, just not one of the Top 2-3 pitchers in all of baseball like he was in the first half. I don't think anyone expects him to be a 1.80 ERA guy like he was first half of last year. If we even out the numbers over a larger sample, we have a more project-able performance IMO. Over 350 innings, this year, last year and 2020, he sits as a low 3.00's ERA guy that is durable, can pitch deep into games, but occasionally will get hit around a bit because he is constantly attacking the zone and relies heavily on a fastball/splitter combination that hitters know is coming. It's kind of the exact guy we are seeing now I feel.

    To connect to your message above this, adding another guy capable of producing similar results in Montas or Castillo would definitely help tremendously.
    I wouldnít really call his second half decent. He pretty much fell off a cliff. 4.42 ERA 1.37 WHIP and a .781 OPS are all pretty abysmal. Itís not a consistent case throughout his career so it could just be an outlier. I have him pegged as a low 3 ERA guy though and agree with the rest of your take.

    One thing that got brought up in one of his previous starts is how the shift ends up hurting him. Righties have a tendency to inside out his splitter and hit it to the 2B side. There have been a fair amount of ground balls squeaking through that side in his last few starts.
    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Facts can be hypothetical.

  10. #11320
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    Quote Originally Posted by R. Johnson#3 View Post
    I wouldnít really call his second half decent. He pretty much fell off a cliff. 4.42 ERA 1.37 WHIP and a .781 OPS are all pretty abysmal. Itís not a consistent case throughout his career so it could just be an outlier. I have him pegged as a low 3 ERA guy though and agree with the rest of your take.

    One thing that got brought up in one of his previous starts is how the shift ends up hurting him. Righties have a tendency to inside out his splitter and hit it to the 2B side. There have been a fair amount of ground balls squeaking through that side in his last few starts.
    I'm considering 4.42 ERA to be decent in my post (not for him, but in general - the average ERA in the MLB was 4.53 last year if I'm reading it correctly). But I'm not sure it matters either way - just how we interpret the language. I think in general it sounds like we are both leaning on a larger sample. If the 1.80 ERA is an obvious outlier, it has to work both ways for the 4.42 ERA too.

    I've found the commentary about the shifting to be quite interesting also. It sounds like the Jays have recently adjusted how often they shift when he is on the mound from the broadcasts. I haven't seen the numbers, but curious if it starts having a positive impact on his results. His fielding independent numbers are ridiculous. I think it is fair to wonder if the Jays staff are making the right choices about how they set up the defense behind him.

  11. #11321
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    Quote Originally Posted by pebloemer View Post
    I'm considering 4.42 ERA to be decent in my post (not for him, but in general - the average ERA in the MLB was 4.53 last year if I'm reading it correctly). But I'm not sure it matters either way - just how we interpret the language. I think in general it sounds like we are both leaning on a larger sample. If the 1.80 ERA is an obvious outlier, it has to work both ways for the 4.42 ERA too.

    I've found the commentary about the shifting to be quite interesting also. It sounds like the Jays have recently adjusted how often they shift when he is on the mound from the broadcasts. I haven't seen the numbers, but curious if it starts having a positive impact on his results. His fielding independent numbers are ridiculous. I think it is fair to wonder if the Jays staff are making the right choices about how they set up the defense behind him.
    I wouldnít have guessed the league average ERA was that high. I get what youíre saying now.

    Gausman is leading the league in FIP if Iím not mistaken. Decreasing the amount of times they shift on him could help but thereís one thing that has me feeling uneasy about Gausman. His xwOBA has slowly but surely been trending in the wrong direction. Over his last 50 PA heís been way below league average.
    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Facts can be hypothetical.

  12. #11322
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    Quote Originally Posted by pebloemer View Post
    I'd be thrilled with a TORP, but I'm not sure I understand the concern for Gausman that often gets mentioned on the radio and in these forums. He has been pitching really great all year IMO. The numbers are really good for the season. And there are indicators that he's been a victim of bad defense or at the very least some unlikely batted ball luck this year.

    Obviously anything can happen before the end of the season. Berrios had a really consistent track record before this season and his game has fallen off a cliff. I knew Kikuchi and Ryu were question marks, but Berrios was definitely supposed to be that third guy. I really hope he starts to figure it out, because that is a long extension he is on...
    Iím legitimately more worried about gausmans contract long term than berrios. Just my gut feeling though.

  13. #11323
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Great point. I had a brain fart there.

    Definitely need to add another torp.
    Ace, manoah, whichever of gausman or berrios is pitching well at the end of the season
    Itís also important to note that all 3 games are in the same city. So itís advantageous to get the best record still.

  14. #11324
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike_noodles View Post
    Itís also important to note that all 3 games are in the same city. So itís advantageous to get the best record still.
    That part I didnít know.
    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Facts can be hypothetical.

  15. #11325
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    Quote Originally Posted by pebloemer View Post
    Prospects on that level, I'm fine trading for rentals. I just wouldn't want to see Orelvis, Moreno, Groshans or Tiedemann dealt for rentals. Specifically, I hope we don't trade Moreno or Tiedemann. But obviously that depends what would be coming back.

    We do have a lot of right handed infielders that probably will struggle to advance in our organization for a lack of opportunity. The names you mention would fit the mold of the players I'd like to see us dangle as well. Bullpen arms usually don't come with too heavy a cost, but the market doesn't look good this year in the early going. Might need to overpay to bring in some reinforcements soon.

    David Bednar is the type of reliever I'd love to see us target. 4 years of team control left for a high leverage reliever who is still 27 years old. There will be a premium to be paid for that of course. I'm curious if people would be comfortable including a player like Groshans in a deal for a back end reliever with term? Not sure Pittsburgh will deal him of course.
    Maybe trade Kirk whole his value is high. Get big return. Go with Moreno everyday cater. Jansen his backup

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