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  1. #6031
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    179
    I wish we could acquire 1 of

    Santana (Brewers)
    Pham (Cards)
    Blackmon (Rockies)

    I'd be ok with Alford and Teoscar playing everyday if we had 1 of the others mentioned. I like Pillar but I think something alittle more offensive and speed is needed for the OF. wishful thinking but maybe Morales Pillar and a RP could be moved for a 5th SP

    CF Alford
    LF Pham
    3B JD
    1B Smoak
    RF T. Hernandez
    SS Tulo
    DH Pearce or ??
    C Martin
    2B Travis

  2. #6032
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    28,239
    Quote Originally Posted by mikepelfrey:32094833
    Quote Originally Posted by Raps08-09 Champ View Post
    Bruce is gonna be a negative player when that contract is done. He's not a guy you pay for what he did given that he'll probably crash.
    i dont see it, war is an extremely flawed stat for that reason given the mets situation if he hits 250 and drives in 80 runs hes very valuable

    they dont spend, they just dont. hes a much better hitter then Kevin Pillar yet pillar has 10 war over 3 years and bruce is 3 war over 3

    as a fan of both teams if you ask id take Bruce over Pillar as a player every day from here to eternity

    they arent even comparable. there are players who help you win and players who are defensive replacements.

    yet war says Pillar is 3 times better than bruce. which is ridiculous
    Bruce is a better hitter, but Pillar plays plus defense at a premium position. Pillar is a better baserunner as well. Pillar helps you win games too. To say otherwise is nonsense. Defense counts too, which you continue to ignore.

  3. #6033
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    2,157
    Quote Originally Posted by Mell413 View Post
    Bruce is a better hitter, but Pillar plays plus defense at a premium position. Pillar is a better baserunner as well. Pillar helps you win games too. To say otherwise is nonsense. Defense counts too, which you continue to ignore.
    he doesnt make up 50 runs a year on defense, no way no how, which you continue to ignore. even if you use Bruce in center and since WAR says Pillar is 3 times better, hed have to save 150 runs better a season
    to warrant that.

    so youre saying Pillar saves 150 runs a season in center?

    fans dont buy tickets to see defense

    if the jays could sign JD Martinez but had to play him in center to get him, theyd do it so fast your head would spin

    so would you and he's bad defensively, thats why WAR is flawed
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 01-11-2018 at 10:27 PM.

  4. #6034
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    28,239
    Quote Originally Posted by mikepelfrey View Post
    he doesnt make up 50 runs a year on defense, no way no how, which you continue to ignore. even if you use Bruce in center and since WAR says Pillar is 3 times better, hed have to save 150 runs better a season
    to warrant that.

    so youre saying Pillar saves 150 runs a season in center?

    fans dont buy tickets to see defense

    if the jays could sign JD Martinez but had to play him in center to get him, theyd do it so fast your head would spin

    so would you and he's bad defensively, thats why WAR is flawed
    Jay Bruce isn't 50 runs better than Pillar with the bat so your first point is irrelevant. Not sure what selling tickets has to do with the topic.I don't have much interest in JD to play a corner spot in the OF much less CF. I doubt any team would sign him to play CF. Teams are too smart now. WAR has it's flaws like all stats, but it doesn't mean it's useless.
    I could tolerate your posts more if you didn't insult other members and act like you're smarter than everyone else. Your act is becoming very tired.

  5. #6035
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    North Shore
    Posts
    8,505
    Count me in the group who's glad we avoided Bruce. Dudes projected to have a 104 wRC+, an OPS under .800 and 1.1 WAR. He also provides negative defensive value. I would rather play Teoscar than sign Bruce.

    As to anyone signing Martinez to play centre, I highly doubt any FO that in this day and age

  6. #6036
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    North Shore
    Posts
    8,505
    Quote Originally Posted by Mell413 View Post
    Bruce is a better hitter, but Pillar plays plus defense at a premium position. Pillar is a better baserunner as well. Pillar helps you win games too. To say otherwise is nonsense. Defense counts too, which you continue to ignore.
    Pillar's defence really took a dip last year which may just be an outlier or could be a sign of things to come. If he keeps regressing in the field, he provides little value to the team. He may become a fourth outfield type sooner rather then later.

  7. #6037
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    Nov 2008
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    28,239
    Quote Originally Posted by Kenny Powders View Post
    Pillar's defence really took a dip last year which may just be an outlier or could be a sign of things to come. If he keeps regressing in the field, he provides little value to the team. He may become a fourth outfield type sooner rather then later.
    It's possible he could be more of a 4th outfielder type. His UZR and DRS took a dip(can't remember the statcast numbers), but they were still a positive. I do wonder if the pitching staff being worse makes him look like a worse defender. I know you weren't arguing this, but even with the dip in the defensive numbers it's not hard to believe why WAR would rate him higher than Bruce over the past few years.

  8. #6038
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    Jun 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mell413 View Post
    It's possible he could be more of a 4th outfielder type. His UZR and DRS took a dip(can't remember the statcast numbers), but they were still a positive. I do wonder if the pitching staff being worse makes him look like a worse defender. I know you weren't arguing this, but even with the dip in the defensive numbers it's not hard to believe why WAR would rate him higher than Bruce over the past few years.
    Oh I get why he has provided more value then Bruce over the last few years. Guys been a beast in the outfield. Diving all over the place on concrete has to take a toll on the body, though.

    The Bruce deal for the Mets is not terrible but I'm glad we stayed away. We have enough 30+ year olds who can't run or play defence worth a lick.

    My OF wish list probably goes something like McCutchen, Cain, Dyson, Nimmo. Mike may be able to speak about the availability of Nimmo but it seems like the Mets have a log jam in the OF

  9. #6039
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    Jan 2009
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    11,324
    Bruce is a lot like Morales IMO.

  10. #6040
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    Jun 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by LanceUpperCut View Post
    Bruce is a lot like Morales IMO.
    I was going to say that but I figured I would get tarred and feathered lol

  11. #6041
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    371
    In the end I am in agreement that there are better options then Bruce, but it's hard to back that Bruce would not be an upgrade to what we had last season, and how he would help the team this season. My hopes are that the Jays do have a better player they are targeting and is being brought in. If not, then I will get on the train that the Jays messed this up and Bruce should have been signed. I guess we sit back and see.

  12. #6042
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
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    Ontario
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    10,818
    Quote Originally Posted by mikepelfrey View Post
    he doesnt make up 50 runs a year on defense, no way no how, which you continue to ignore. even if you use Bruce in center and since WAR says Pillar is 3 times better, hed have to save 150 runs better a season
    to warrant that.

    so youre saying Pillar saves 150 runs a season in center?

    fans dont buy tickets to see defense

    if the jays could sign JD Martinez but had to play him in center to get him, theyd do it so fast your head would spin

    so would you and he's bad defensively, thats why WAR is flawed
    Just because you don't understand how a stat works, doesn't make it wrong.

  13. #6043
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Rogers Centre
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    Bruce would definitely be an upgrade over what we have now. With that being said I'm glad we didn't get him.

  14. #6044
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    6,298
    Quote Originally Posted by Kenny Powders View Post
    I was going to say that but I figured I would get tarred and feathered lol
    I don't think so...cause you would be right. He doesn't post a high OBP. He is someone you hit 4-6 in you lineupt who hits around 30 HR's and drives in around 100 runs when he plays well. Technically he plays the field so he is slightly better than Morales in terms of having him on your roster, but at the plate they are pretty similar over 162 games. The edge goes to Bruce, but the biggest difference over the last 2 seasons is simply Morales has been mostly a lefty killer while Bruce has done all his damage against RHP.


    Pillar would be a great 4th outfielder with a couple left handed hitting starters...But we would need to find 3 new starters in order to make that happen since all of our OF's (including Hernandez and Alford) all hit right handed other than Carrera. Platooning him with Carrera in LF would be a big demotion for a starting CF, but when you post a .300 OBP in back to back seasons with an OPS around .700 you have to expect that your job isn't secure in the AL East. He now has about 2000 MLB PA's , and he has a career slash of .264/.302/.390. Even with 16 HR's and 37 doubles last year he still only managed to post a .704 OPS because he slashed a mere .230/.274/.354 against RHP.


    I wonder what kind of money Melky and Grandy are going to get this off season...I wonder if they are able to trade for Yelich if they could nab them on 1 year deals with team options? They are both getting old, but if they get hurt or don't perform we'd have Pillar as well as guys like Hernandez and Alford waiting for another shot in AAA. Granderson doesn't do much against southpaws, but he still posts pretty decent numbers against RHP and was versatile enough to start 56 games in CF last year. Melky didn't do much in KC, but was solid his entire tenure in Chicago after he left Toronto. Including last season before he was traded at the deadline.


    I would feel better betting on those guys to produce offensively than a couple rookies..

  15. #6045
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    2,157
    Quote Originally Posted by mike_noodles View Post
    Just because you don't understand how a stat works, doesn't make it wrong.
    oh I get what the stat means it's you and mell who dont. You don't understand it at all. Bill James wrote about this specifically 20 years ago in his abstract referring to the great Ozzie Smith and concluded that no player was comparable defensively to another Offensively using WAR. No Player, and considering he Invented the damn statistic Its logical he knew what he was talking about.

    If anything its you guys who dont understand It...he concluded in his essay that there is no relationship whatsoever in Offensive and Defensive WAR other than as a graphical representation WITHIN the subset.

    The fact you guys refuse to accept that your using the stat wrong to mean something it clearly wasn't meant to relate is on you. Not me. Because of my promise to Jamie C I won't go any further but I suggest you take out your Baseball Abstracts and read his essay before you continue to make fools of yourself.

    Defensive components of WAR are not equal to Offensive WAR, never were, never will be. the fact that you and others keep trying to say that It does only shows your own lack of understanding. That Is NOT just my position its Bill James as well.

    If you'd like a year and page citatation from his abstract I'd be glad to provide it for you. WAR was never meant to be added together Offensive and Defensive as they do now. they simply dont have the same value.

    Out simply, 1 WAR of Defense is not equal to 1 WAR of Offense. I get it. YOU however dont. That's not arrogance thats just being better informed

    And Jamie I hope you understand, I just can't let people who continue to spread false information as fact, go on without correcting it. It's not like the info isn't readily available and there for everyone to see it. They are just too lazy to look it up. Bill James has been trying to get this across to people for 20 years. It's his biggest regret.

    Part of his essay is right here (online)

    http://www.espn.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/37682/on-bill-james-the-writer

    Though i'd suggest reading the whole essay in the abstract. He has spoken more about the Falacy of defensive metrics than any other subject in his career. The fact that so many use WAR to spread these misunderstandings grates on his nerves. but how many times must he say that Defensive WAR is not the same as Offensive WAR and is merely a graphical representation In terms we are familiar with.

    Saying Pillar is more valuable than Bruce using WAR just proof of their Ignorance.
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 01-12-2018 at 02:22 PM.

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