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  1. #5971
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    I think that is where we differentiate. I think that is where we see the split among fans and management on when to rebuild. Imo those 4 guys are pieces but still so far from competing in the ALE.

    Dosh is our Stanton or Betts, but the rest of the team does not even close to measure up. Like not close at all. We would need prime Bautista and encarnacion for the window to be open. Right now it's sealed closed. Stroman is a good #2 or 3 and we aren't exactly sure what we have in Sanchez outside of a killer sinker. He could be a #1 if he refines his other pitches or he could be a #2 if he stays the same or a 3,4 if he regresses.

    Happ doesn't move the needle Imo and I would be looking to trade him or a long term piece. Outside of Travis and smoak we do not have any above average hitters to back up dosh. If we were in the NL or a weaker division we could make the playoffs right now... But not in this division. And regardless I don't want a team with a slim chance to make the playoffs before the vets expire. I want sustained success.
    Donaldson will be like 36 in 2021 too. Can't hope Alford, Vlad and Bo will be ready in their 1st or 2nd year in the big leagues to make up for the drop in production and make up for everyone else too.

  2. #5972
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Dosh is our Stanton or Betts, but the rest of the team does not even close to measure up. Like not close at all. We would need prime Bautista and encarnacion for the window to be open. Right now it's sealed closed. Stroman is a good #2 or 3 and we aren't exactly sure what we have in Sanchez outside of a killer sinker. He could be a #1 if he refines his other pitches or he could be a #2 if he stays the same or a 3,4 if he regresses.
    Couldn't he be the Jays #1? He's two years removed from posting the best ERA in the AL. I'd say he could be #1 if he stays healthy. I can see why you wouldn't consider him #1 because of his K/BB ratio though.

    Stroman looks like he can match up well against other teams #2 also.

  3. #5973
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raps08-09 Champ View Post
    That most of that post is wishful thinking given we don't have the farm to make it happen.

    The remaining 3 starters will probably cost another $25-30 million.

    Arbitration/extension guys probably accounting for another $30-40 million too (Pillar, Biagini, Diaz Travis, Smoak, etc).

    Half the bullpen we have now will probably flop so we have to sign guys via FA and those will probably be on an AAV of $2-5 million.

    So that's like $150 million for half the roster (and you're probably signing high risk guys at that point to save money) and you'd need to rely on the prospects to make up the rest (where we don't have a deep farm at the moment) or hope those guys you signed as bounce back candidates work out.
    Wishful thinking eh? They've been spending the majority of the payroll on half the roster for years. It's nothing new.

  4. #5974
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    Quote Originally Posted by FLeays View Post
    Couldn't he be the Jays #1? He's two years removed from posting the best ERA in the AL. I'd say he could be #1 if he stays healthy. I can see why you wouldn't consider him #1 because of his K/BB ratio though.

    Stroman looks like he can match up well against other teams #2 also.
    Stromans a 2 or 3. I don't see him getting much better than already is. Which is fine. He's great. We all remember Wang's sinker and what it did for a short time in the AL. Sanchez will need more to truly be an ace. Sanchez is awesome too but do we need a torp or do we need a happ style depth 3? That is what we don't know yet.

  5. #5975
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    No way Stroman is a 3. If he's a 3 there a few 1's and 2's.

  6. #5976
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raps08-09 Champ View Post
    Donaldson will be like 36 in 2021 too. Can't hope Alford, Vlad and Bo will be ready in their 1st or 2nd year in the big leagues to make up for the drop in production and make up for everyone else too.
    Tbh dosh should still be a good player at 36 but who knows. Look at tulo. But I agree we can't expect bautista/encarnacion production from Vlad/bo at that point and also look at the other stars that needed to align to get this team in the playoffs. Needed tulo and price too. We'll also need to sign smoak by then.

    I'm just highly in favor of a true rebuild obviously. I'd rather accelerate it by a couple years than stretch it out trying to sell tickets for a meh team. But that's a fans perspective.

  7. #5977
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    Stroman is more rich Hill than kayton Kershaw - so he's not a 1. For me the line between 2/3 is just the depth on the team. But to win in the playoffs you need an ace and a couple 2/3's. Saying he is a 3 isn't a dis. That's saying he can be a go to guy in a huge game.

  8. #5978
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    Quote Originally Posted by bartron_44 View Post
    Wishful thinking eh? They've been spending the majority of the payroll on half the roster for years. It's nothing new.
    And look where it led us. It led to unsustainable playoff success and 2 playoff appearances in like 8 years. And we have had guys like Encarnacion and Bautista at a discount during those times, something we'd need to get lucky with this time around (signing Smoak to a deal and hoping he keeps it up would be the equivalent). Committing $70-80 million to those 4 is risky considering half of that will be to a guy in his late 30s and a closer.

    I'm fine if they go all in like that for a season or 2, but to say we're not far from contending is stretching.
    Last edited by Raps08-09 Champ; 12-31-2017 at 07:40 PM.

  9. #5979
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    Tbh dosh should still be a good player at 36 but who knows. Look at tulo. But I agree we can't expect bautista/encarnacion production from Vlad/bo at that point and also look at the other stars that needed to align to get this team in the playoffs. Needed tulo and price too. We'll also need to sign smoak by then.

    I'm just highly in favor of a true rebuild obviously. I'd rather accelerate it by a couple years than stretch it out trying to sell tickets for a meh team. But that's a fans perspective.
    Bautista and Encarnacion were signed to massive discounts. We couldn't have afforded guys like Happ and Estrada if Bautista and Encarnacion were signed to market deals.

    We would need to sign like Smoak to a similar deal $8-12 million deal and hope he keeps it up to have a chance if you're committing $40 million to Donaldson (late 30s) and Osuna (closer) in 2021.

  10. #5980
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    No, they dont. Their payroll has risen since 2015 quite significantly.

    Counting everything(including retained salaries), they spent about 145.5M on player salaries in 2015. Last year they spent just over 200M. The problem last year was around 70M went to retained salaries and disabled list players.

    To put that in perspective, they only had about 21M go to disabled list players and retained salaries in 2016, and 31M in 2015. The extra 40M was Tulo being hurt (20M) and the retained money from Melvin Upton and Liriano.

    They currently have only 500K in retained salaries for 2018. They should be able to resign JD, go get a solid SP and a replacement for Bautista and still have a lower operating cost than 2017.

  11. #5981
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    Quote Originally Posted by bartron_44 View Post
    No, they dont. Their payroll has risen since 2015 quite significantly.

    Counting everything(including retained salaries), they spent about 145.5M on player salaries in 2015. Last year they spent just over 200M. The problem last year was around 70M went to retained salaries and disabled list players.

    To put that in perspective, they only had about 21M go to disabled list players and retained salaries in 2016, and 31M in 2015. The extra 40M was Tulo being hurt (20M) and the retained money from Melvin Upton and Liriano.

    They currently have only 500K in retained salaries for 2018. They should be able to resign JD, go get a solid SP and a replacement for Bautista and still have a lower operating cost than 2017.
    They can do all of that and they'd still be far away from the playoffs.

  12. #5982
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raps08-09 Champ View Post
    They can do all of that and they'd still be far away from the playoffs.
    I dont agree. I think a rotation that goes 5 deep with a solid bullpen and good defence is going to win a lot of games.

    Also, a full season of JD, a real #3/4 hitter to replace Bautista and even average MLB hitters up the middle would drastically improve their lineup.

    Not sure what they will do, just saying they have the money to be legitimately in on pretty much anyone. They don't need to go shopping at the bargain bins hoping to get lucky.

  13. #5983
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    Quote Originally Posted by bartron_44 View Post
    I dont agree. I think a rotation that goes 5 deep with a solid bullpen and good defence is going to win a lot of games.

    Also, a full season of JD, a real #3/4 hitter to replace Bautista and even average MLB hitters up the middle would drastically improve their lineup.

    Not sure what they will do, just saying they have the money to be legitimately in on pretty much anyone. They don't need to go shopping at the bargain bins hoping to get lucky.
    Think it's multiple pieces to take us over the hump, so even if we have the money for 1 or 2 guys, you need to rely on a ton of young players to make up the rest. That's a lot to ask for Vlad, Bo and Alford 2-3 years from now.

  14. #5984
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raps08-09 Champ View Post
    Think it's multiple pieces to take us over the hump, so even if we have the money for 1 or 2 guys, you need to rely on a ton of young players to make up the rest. That's a lot to ask for Vlad, Bo and Alford 2-3 years from now.
    But people are saying the rebuild would be over in three years. So you'd still be asking the same thing of those same young players in that same time frame.

  15. #5985
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike_noodles View Post
    But people are saying the rebuild would be over in three years. So you'd still be asking the same thing of those same young players in that same time frame.
    I think people are saying a rebuild would offer more hope of a Championship. And their right. This current team would have to get lucky with career years and no injuries to make the wild card. I would rather drive drunk than be a passanger in a car with a drunk driver.

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