The Future is Bright - Blue Jays Minor League Thread 4.0

[bartron_44]

It all depends how old you are when you are drafted. The kids normally take 5+ years, but a lot of college players only take 3 or 4 since they are ready to play full season baseball right away. 5 years probably isn't a bad average though overall.

That 5 year average is why it is so hard to take over a team and build it up from scratch in baseball. You can't just have 1 or 2 good drafts and be good like in other sports. Even doing it in 5 years is rushed. Look at all the major trades AA needed after taking over for Ricciardi. He didn't even wait for the prospects. He traded most of them to expedite things and it still took 5 years.

[ChongInc.]

That 5 year average is why it is so hard to take over a team and build it up from scratch in baseball. You can't just have 1 or 2 good drafts and be good like in other sports. Even doing it in 5 years is rushed.

I agree. the only way to do it quickly is through trades. either selling MLB pieces for high end specs or expiditing the MLB club by trading off specs. usually both if done correctly.

[statquo]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-34-p...nto-blue-jays/

Fangraphs top 34 prospects for the Jays

1.Vlad
2. Bichette
3. Jansen
4. Pearson
5. Groshans

Notables:
12. Biggio
13. Zeuch
17. Tellez
22. McGuire
23. Alford
29. Luciano

Jon Harris nowhere to be seen

[ChongInc.]

I don't like seeing rookie ball guys in the top 100 because we really have no idea yet. The vast majority of rookie ball guys don't ever make it.

[hanton]

I don't like seeing rookie ball guys in the top 100 because we really have no idea yet. The vast majority of rookie ball guys don't ever make it.

Who?

[ChongInc.]

Groshans, but we have seen it many times before. I hope he has the talent to stay on there but you see the rookie ball guys drop off the list often.

[hanton]

Groshans, but we have seen it many times before. I hope he has the talent to stay on there but you see the rookie ball guys drop off the list often.

Struggling a month into pro ball and some drop like a rock, another year and it could mean dropping out of the top 20 (in a teams system). This actually happens quite a bit. Groshans is 18 so he has a bit of time, a player coming out of college is a little different you are expected to pretty much rake in your first year of pro

[bartron_44]

How could it possibly be a bad thing to have a young kid like Grohans in the top 100? The ranking just means they think he has a lot of talent. He's young, but he's got international experience with team USA. He's been seen by scouts quite a bit.

[R. Johnson#3]

How could it possibly be a bad thing to have a young kid like Grohans in the top 100? The ranking just means they think he has a lot of talent. He's young, but he's got international experience with team USA. He's been seen by scouts quite a bit.

It's not necessarily a bad thing. It's the fact that it should be taken with a grain of salt. He still has multiple levels to climb and like Chong said the vast majority of rookie ball guys don't make it. Having rookie ball prospects in the top 100 is sort of like watching the first 10 minutes of a movie and saying, "This is going to be a great movie!"

[ChongInc.]

How could it possibly be a bad thing to have a young kid like Grohans in the top 100? The ranking just means they think he has a lot of talent. He's young, but he's got international experience with team USA. He's been seen by scouts quite a bit.

Of course it's not a bad thing and it's a sign of good drafting to land guys that everyone thinks could be top talent.
All I'm saying is those guys have high Bustability.

I prefer lists that pay more attention to guys with high ceilings than guys who are close to becoming utility guys in the majors so I'm being kind of contradictory.

[bartron_44]

Counting on those guys to be the future may be like that, but not just him being on a top 100 list. If anything he us going to be a trade piece since he is likely going to end up a 3B. Having guys like him and Smith behind Vladdy and Bo is going to make trading to fill holes rather easy next off season.

There is a world where Stroman and Sanchez bounce back and guys like Borucki and SRF come in and have solid seasons. Maybe even get someone like Patrick Murphy either in the rotation or bullpen in Sept throwing high 90's and touching triple digits.

Down the stretch they are going to be able to add from within all over the field (if needed). Even withoit Vladdy and Jansen they should have Bichette, Biggio, McKinney, Tellez, Alford, Copping, Perez, Pannone, Mayza and McGuire likely in AAA and guys like Murphy and Smith in AA to start the season. Their depth has gone from non existent in 2016 to ridiculous in 2019 in the upper minors.

[Jamiecballer]

It's not necessarily a bad thing. It's the fact that it should be taken with a grain of salt. He still has multiple levels to climb and like Chong said the vast majority of rookie ball guys don't make it. Having rookie ball prospects in the top 100 is sort of like watching the first 10 minutes of a movie and saying, "This is going to be a great movie!"

I dont know about that. I don' think I've ever been wrong, my intuition is pretty much perfect

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[R. Johnson#3]

I dont know about that. I don' think I've ever been wrong, my intuition is pretty much perfect

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You ever see The Revenant?

[Jamiecballer]

You ever see The Revenant?

No but if you give me the first 10 mins of it I can tell you if its good

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[ChongInc.]

That's the bear movie right? First 10 minutes are that movies peak.