The Future is Bright - Blue Jays Minor League Thread 4.0

[ChongInc.]

So no one knows who our catcher guru is?

[ChongInc.]

I found this https://theathletic.com/266067/2018/...mselves/?amp=1

[Sasky05]

I found this https://theathletic.com/266067/2018/...mselves/?amp=1

Nice find Chong! Good read.

[wamco]

https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-s-top-50-blue...25-1-1.1910851

Jays top 25 prospects per tsn

50-26 also avail

[Kenny Powders]

https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-s-top-50-blue...25-1-1.1910851

Jays top 25 prospects per tsn

50-26 also avail

It's easy to dream on a Tiedmann/Barriera 1-2 punch

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[town123]

5 year old story still running true. Thx for this!

[pebloemer]

Nice article about Tucker Toman.

https://www.si.com/mlb/bluejays/.amp...man-to-toronto

[pebloemer]

Anyone have an Athletic subscription? Curious how Keith Law ranked Jays in his Top 100 that recently released.

[town123]

Anyone have an Athletic subscription? Curious how Keith Law ranked Jays in his Top 100 that recently released.

Why really? Just to torture yourself. The guy is hack, just go back and recap his predictions and rankings from the last 5 years for fun.

I would think he has only one Jay on his list, Ricky, and probably in the 10-20 range.

[hanton]

Anyone have an Athletic subscription? Curious how Keith Law ranked Jays in his Top 100 that recently released.

Tiedemann is the only one in his top 100 at 47

47. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 20 | 6-4 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 91 in 2021

Last year’s ranking: Unranked

Tiedemann went undrafted out of high school in 2020, then went to junior college and ended up a third-round pick of the Jays in 2021. His velocity started to creep up as soon as instructional league. He topped out at 97-98 mph in 2022, although he tapered off over the course of the season and was sitting 93-94 when I saw him in September at Double-A Somerset, when the Jays had him on a strict three-inning limit to manage his workload. When fully healthy, he’s got power stuff, with big horizontal break to the slider that makes it a weapon against left- and right-handed batters, and an above-average changeup that he will need more as he gets to Triple A and the majors. He has a tough delivery to repeat, starting on the extreme first-base end of the rubber and never quite getting online, so locating to his glove side is a challenge. If he can develop his command and control — which might mean getting him more online to the plate — he has front-line starter potential. There’s also reliever risk here, although in that role he’d probably be an elite, 35-40 percent strikeout rate pitcher.

[pebloemer]

Tiedemann is the only one in his top 100 at 47

47. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 20 | 6-4 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 91 in 2021

Last year’s ranking: Unranked

Tiedemann went undrafted out of high school in 2020, then went to junior college and ended up a third-round pick of the Jays in 2021. His velocity started to creep up as soon as instructional league. He topped out at 97-98 mph in 2022, although he tapered off over the course of the season and was sitting 93-94 when I saw him in September at Double-A Somerset, when the Jays had him on a strict three-inning limit to manage his workload. When fully healthy, he’s got power stuff, with big horizontal break to the slider that makes it a weapon against left- and right-handed batters, and an above-average changeup that he will need more as he gets to Triple A and the majors. He has a tough delivery to repeat, starting on the extreme first-base end of the rubber and never quite getting online, so locating to his glove side is a challenge. If he can develop his command and control — which might mean getting him more online to the plate — he has front-line starter potential. There’s also reliever risk here, although in that role he’d probably be an elite, 35-40 percent strikeout rate pitcher.

Thanks.

[wamco]

Batters box-There have been a lot of articles in the Toronto press about the new facility in Dunedin and the usefulness of the hitting and pitching labs there. They have even suggested that some players have asked to be drafted by the Jays or signed with the Jays because of the facility. How unique is the Jays facility?

KL: I can't speak to that at all, sorry. I haven't done any real research into the specifics of teams' facilities. I don't want to speak out of turn.


BB: When I look at player development I see three aspects, the draft, player development and luck. With luck I include injuries and when a low round pick turns into a player with major league value. I have several questions about this. First, the Jays drafting doesn't seem to have a theme, or a philosophy, behind it. In 2021 it was almost all pitchers. In 2022 mostly hitters and hitters with a bat first profile, generally non athletic. How would you grade the Jays drafting generally?

KL: I think they're more geared towards best player available than to a specific category of players. Last year's draft ('22) was a terrible college crop, with almost no college pitching up top, so they made a pretty clear adjustment around that. I'm not sure they'd normally go for a HS arm in the first round, but given who was on the board at that point, you could easily argue Barriera was the BPA. Anyway, I think they're drafting quite well over the last three or four years, especially if you consider their ability to convert some high picks into help for the major-league roster via trades.


BB: What do you think of the 2022 draft approach, drafting good bat to ball guys.

KL: I don't think that was their draft approach last year, though. Toman isn't necessarily that, and I don't think that's Doughty's defining characteristic. It is definitely true of Kasevich, though.


BB: In regard to player development, some teams have earned a reputation for their development (Dodgers, Guardians and Rays for example). When you think of the Jays and player development what comes to mind?

KL: No single thing comes to mind here. They're around the middle of the pack in development. They've had enough successes and failures on both sides of the ball that I wouldn't say that they're especially good or bad at developing any category of player. They do have a big group of position-player prospects from high A to the DSL who came into the org through international free agency who present them with a big player development opportunity, but also a challenge. These are talented kids who have a lot of work ahead of them to become the players we think they can become. I hope the struggles of Orelvis Martinez this year lead the Jays to reconsider pushing some of those kids.


BB: Minor league strikeout rate is often used as a statistical scouting method for pitchers. You have ranked two pitchers in your Jays top 10 that have a lower strikeout rate in Sem Robberse and Hayden Juenger. Is this where pitchability and the ability to pitch to (weak) contact is an offset to the lower strikeout numbers?

KL" Yeah, 'statistical scouting' isn't really a thing. You can and should look at strikeout rates for pitchers, but it's a supplement to scouting, not a replacement for it. Both those guys have reasons why they're in my top 10 with those lower rates. Robberse has everything you want in a mid-rotation type except for power - he lost velocity last year versus 2021, and that meant he missed fewer bats. If he returns to his 2021 velocity levels, on all his pitches, his strikeout rate will almost certainly go up, and with his command and feel for pitching that will make him that potential mid-rotation guy. Or maybe he even gains a little more velocity than that. I like guys who miss bats, but I'm willing to project on some pitchers to improve in that area, or to boost guys who show other ways to get around higher contact rates (e.g., weak contact/groundball tendencies).


BB: A number of the Jays international signings had poor 2022's. I am thinking of Luis Meza, Manual Beltre, Estivan Machado and others. They are all still young and you have Beltre in your top 20. At what age, or stage, do you start to give up on a young prospect?

KL: I don't have a hard and fast rule on this, but I like to see progress of some sort - adjustments on the field, improvements in the stat line, even progress in Trackman data. If a kid doesn't have a better year at the plate but he's hitting the ball harder, that's still progress. When players stop making progress, that's when I start to give up. And I agree that their IFA group as a whole didn't do as well last year as I'd hoped.


BB: You still have hope for Orelvis, despite his free swinging ways. Are there major league players you can think of who have gone from a swing for the fences approach and had a successful major league career?

KL: Sure, tons. Whatever you might think of Joey Gallo now, he's generated almost 15 WAR before turning 29. If Orelvis is only a .290 OBP guy with this power and good defense at third, he'd be a starter on at least a handful of teams. I don't think he's that player right now, but that's within reach - and he's only 21 this year. Start him at AA again with some real help on swing decisions and see if he makes any adjustments.


BB: Are there new technologies that help a player develop more selectivity at the plate? I would think that there are visual training systems that simulate at-bats that should help a player and grade his swing decisions.

KL: Yes, I wrote about some of that in my piece on Austin Riley back in August of 2021. There are simulators that help hitters work on pitch recognition and tracking.

[pebloemer]

Fangraphs did an interesting projection for a Top 100 prospects in baseball using their Zips projections.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-202...100-prospects/

Different than traditional scout rankings as it is all based on algorithms, but it has a good evidence base behind it. Plenty of hits and misses on the projections historically (like any other list) of course.

Blue Jays:

# 5: Orelvis Martinez - the ranking has him as a power hitting shortstop. The swing and miss isn't considered a huge detriment because he is way younger than the level he is playing at. Seems optimistic adjustments will be made. Doubt he sticks at SS though.

#14: Ricky Tiedemann

#27: Addison Barger

[hanton]

Fangraphs did an interesting projection for a Top 100 prospects in baseball using their Zips projections.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-202...100-prospects/

Different than traditional scout rankings as it is all based on algorithms, but it has a good evidence base behind it. Plenty of hits and misses on the projections historically (like any other list) of course.

Blue Jays:

# 5: Orelvis Martinez - the ranking has him as a power hitting shortstop. The swing and miss isn't considered a huge detriment because he is way younger than the level he is playing at. Seems optimistic adjustments will be made. Doubt he sticks at SS though.

#14: Ricky Tiedemann

#27: Addison Barger

Yea saw this yesterday and was shocked at the Orelvis ranking then I started reading how zips is calculated and it made more sense. I don't normally pay attention to projections but it was fun read

Barger just hit a blast of Bednar

[Robbie]

Lopez looks like be a good player. With his versatility and speed. Energy player