Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Results 1 to 6 of 6
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    946

    What does Lough-for-Valencia do to the Royals lineup?

    Early reactions on the Lough for Valencia trade indicate that there is more to come, and the initial speculations point to Bonifacio as the one who will be moved next. His salary if somewhat high for a utility infielder, and the Royals have Colon waiting to come to the big league team.

    That sounds nice and tight and all, but I'm not buying it.

    Another theory has the Royals moving Maxwell, carrying only 4 outfielders. Apparently, that idea is based on keeping Dyson...because he can run fast. He cant hit worth a damn, and has been known to misjudge fly balls.....but can run fast.

    The additions of Aoki, Infante, and now Valencia will have big impacts on the Royals OBP, Slugging Pct., team batting average, strikeout rate, and BABIP....based on their numbers compared to the players they are replacing numbers from last year. Valencia isnt necessarily here to replace Moose, but his .371 batting average vs left handed pitchers is hell and gone better than Moose vs left handed pitchers. Aoki doesnt strike out. He would have been the Royals best hitter last season with a .315 average, and batting leadoff....will get the Royals off to a good start more often than not. He also allows Gordon to move down into an RBI spot in the lineup.

    Infante coming off a .318 season, would bat second and suddenly.....the third and fourth hitters have one golden opportunity after another to drive in runs. If it were up to me, I'd slot Gordon at #3, Hosmer at #4, and Maxwell, the DH at #5.

    Yes, Maxwell.

    Billy Butler is expensive. He is a liability at first base, cant run the bases, and grounded into double plays more than any other player in the American League last year. He also manages to bat near .300 every year, and carries the highest trade value of any Royals player from last years team. Its no secret that the Royals would like to sign a #2 starting pitcher, and dumping Butler's $9 million salary would clear payroll space to make that happen. Take back good prospects in trade and we're golden.

    With the adjustment to 15 teams in both the AL and NL, inter-league play will be a season long occurrence. When the Royals go to a National League city, they have to figure out a way to get Butler into the lineup....usually by putting Hosmer in right. That was fine when it meant benching Lough/Dyson/Maxwell for a game or three, but now....do you bench Cain? Aoki? Do you bench Moose and move Gordon to Third? No...by trading Butler, you maintain outfield rotations and use a rotation of Maxwell/Bonifacio/Valencia as the DH. Then, when you go to Atlanta, the DH being out of the lineup doesnt force you to play 52 card pickup with the rest of the roster just so one guy can play.

    By trading Butler, you are able to keep your role players from going long stretches without playing, have a pinch runner, a pinch hitter, and not have to hit a double to score Billy Butler from 2nd.....It also allows you to maybe re-sign Ervin Santana

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    13,924
    Quote Originally Posted by royal bob View Post
    Valencia isnt necessarily here to replace Moose, but his .371 batting average vs left handed pitchers
    What .371 average? The one in 100 PA's last year?
    100 plate appearances isn't near enough to make a judgement.

    In his MLB career, he's hit .367/.183/.140 (OBP/ISO/wRC+) and a .380 wOBA vs lefties. Which is, still, quite good (league average wOBA for non-pitchers was .320 last year) but only in 400 plate appearances.

    According to this article, we need about 2200 PA's against left-handed hitters before we can say what a hitter's true skill is. Valencia is 1800 PA's short.

    If we use the method described above and STEAMER and Oliver projections for 2014 we get Valencia hitting for a .330 wOBA vs lefties and .298 vs lefties.

    So, he does look like a decent hitter vs lefties (remember, league average wOBA is probably going to be around .320 next year) but not excellent.

    He might be worth a roster spot as a bench player. But his defense hasn't been average, and his bat doesn't look average either.

    I'd much rather have Lough.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Queens, NY
    Posts
    63,905
    I like Lough too and he's more valuable, but I understand why they made the move.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    S.L. Puerto Rico
    Posts
    1,555
    Hopefully this trade will light a fire under Mous, he is hitting.500 since the trade last week at a small sample size at 6 for 12 to raise his avg. to .288 but is better than the .233 he had going before Dec 18, and I agree on Butler, he would clog the bases and after letting DLo go over Dyson and getting Aoki looks like Ned will go small ball

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    946
    I'd much rather have Lough.
    That may be, but there is no place for Lough in this outfield. Frankly, there is no place for Dyson, either....but Ned thinks we have the luxury of having someone around to pinch-run for Butler in the late innings when we're behind.

    Get rid of Butler, and there is no longer a need for Dyson. We would still have 4 outfielders on the 25 man roster, and Bubba will be showing up looking for a spot in 2015.

    Everyone loves to shout Moooooose, when he does something good, but the fact is.....when we need him to come up big offensively, he pops out to 3rd base. He is a below average offensive 3rd baseman....even though he is above average defensively. Yes, there is something to be said about not giving opponents 4 outs in an inning, but we also won more than we lost while scoring nearly 1 run per game below the league average

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    S.L. Puerto Rico
    Posts
    1,555
    This is the year for Moouse ! He is just 25 and has this year to show that he is more than a .240 15 HR hitter, he has a .360 OBP and hitting .348 with runners in scoring position playing for Pedro Grifol, so he has more one on one time with his hitting coach, Dayton will give him all the chances to be the Royals 3rd baseman cause if they didn't shipped him to Omaha last season with him struggling and Miguel Tejada raking they won't give up that easy over Valencia

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •