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  1. #4951
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    midwest
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I don't see how we would get Thor without giving up a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. Martinez would be the start of a Thor trade I'd think, which is a redundant matter entirely.



    I have turned the page on wanting Harper though. The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of getting him, if he's willing to take a large deal with it heavily backloaded so we can absorb his payroll.

    Realistically, the guy has the character and personality that would do well here. He is Mormon, is goal orientated, and expects to be in Cooperstown one day.

    I would want to give him 13% of our annual projected payroll for the next 10-14 years. If the Cards can figure out what their payroll will be for that time frame, that's what I'd give him. Like I had above, that would be something like 13/$390 or 14/$434 range.

    I'm a huge fan of signing Donaldson and a reliever though. And ideally, also trading for an additional reliever. If we could find a way to get Harper, then trading someone like Tyler O'Neill could be an option (though I like him in left starting in 2020).

    If we have $170M in payroll to spend, and are sitting at $137M

    Signing Donaldson is a huge chunk of those funds. So adding another reliever and Harper means we'd have to move a lot of other salary.

    I'm a huge fan of trading Cecil and having the acquiring team pay one of the next two years, and us paying the other (ideally, they pay 2019, we pay 2020). This allows them to get a free year of a player they could hopefully rebuild with. If Cecil can be worth anything in 2019, they can easily flip him for a prospect, or he only costs $3.75M per year for two years, which is cheap.

    That might pay half of one year of either Miller, Britton, Robertson, Ottavino etc.

    Nobody wants Fowler, nobody wants Cecil. But trading Martinez could net us a reliever with some control depending on the deal (someone mentioned Taylor Rogers from Minnesota, that's an example).

    We have some flexibility. But we have to come out of this off-season with Donaldson and two relievers. If we can find a way to get Harper for the next decade, I'm all for it. But I don't know how they can realistically do that without shedding some payroll elsewhere. And I wouldn't want Harper at the expense of landing Donaldson.

    But if they can backload these guys correctly, imagine this roster for 2019

    C - Molina
    1B - Carpenter
    2B - Wong
    3B - Donaldson
    SS - DeJong
    LF - Ozuna
    CF - Bader
    RF - Harper

    Rotation
    1. Flaherty
    2. Martinez
    3. Mikolas
    4-5 Gant/Wacha/Weaver/Hudson/Wainwright/Gomber/etc etc etc

    Add in one of Robertson, Britton, Miller, Allen, Ottavino, etc to the bullpen, and an additional one via trade

    That's a 95+ win team.

    We probably wouldn't/couldn't extend Ozuna, but I'd like to look at extending Mikolas. Depending how 2019 goes for both of them. I still think 4/60 might extend Mikolas, which is good IMO.

    Harper can shift to left in 2020, and to first in 2022.
    I could get on board with this for sure
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  2. #4952
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    56,574
    I’m struggling to fall asleep, so I’m just playing around with this:

    Zack Grienke
    Paul Goldschmidt
    Archie Bradley
    And
    Andrew Chafin

    D’Backs cover Greinke’s deferred salaries, making him an even $21M per year in each 19, 20, and 21

    Bradley with three years of control, through 21, arb estimate is $2.0 for 19
    Chafin with two years of control, through 20, arb estimate is $1.8 for 19
    Goldie with one year of control at $14M


    Surplus values are:
    Chafin - $35M
    Bradley - $40M
    Goldie - $25M
    Greinke - $25M
    Total surplus value - $125M
    Added $38.8M to 2019 payroll

    For
    Dakota Hudson
    Elherius Montero
    Tyler O’Neill
    Carson Kelly
    Jose Martinez
    Dexter Fowler
    Brett Cecil

    we’d pay Fowler’s signing bonuses still

    Surplus values
    Hudson - $40M
    Montero - $30M
    O’Neill - $45M
    Kelly - $30M
    Martinez - $15M
    Fowler - -$25M
    Cecil - -$10M

    Total - $125M

    We cut $14.5M for Fowler, and $7.5M for Cecil, so now we have added $16.8M to our 2019 payroll, and the D’Backs have reduced theirs by the same.


    Make a corresponding move to trade Wacha and his $6.3M for anything, even a PTBNL if that’s what it takes, though we could probably get a top 250ish spec for him.

    And then, sign Harper, we’ll call it 10/$350M, but backloaded as such

    19 - $25M
    20 - $25M
    21 - $25M
    22 - $35M
    23 - $35M
    24 - $35M
    25 - $35M
    26 - $45M
    27 -$45M
    28 -$45M

    We have added the $35M we can afford to our 2019 payroll, and made it work.

    Roster
    C - Molina
    1B - Goldschmidt
    2B - Wong
    SS - DeJong
    3B - Carpenter
    LF - Ozuna
    CF - Bader
    RF - Harper

    Bench
    C - any defensive minded backup for 1-2M
    IF - Gyorko
    IF - Munoz or Sosa
    OF - Williams, Thomas, or Garcia, whoever wins it out of ST

    Rotation
    1. Greinke
    2. Flaherty
    3. Martinez
    4. Mikolas
    5. Gant

    Long - Wainwright
    R - Brebbia
    R - Gregerson
    R - Leone
    L - Chafin
    L - Shreve/Webb
    Setup - Hicks
    Closer - Bradley

    Reyes starts the year in Memphis

    Works on our 40 man too

    D’Backs new roster has a new
    Catcher
    CFer
    RFer
    Starter
    1B
    A reliever
    And Montero

    Save $16.5M in 19
    Save $10M in 20
    And save $17M in 21

    Save $45M in total, while collecting four very good prospects.


    I’d throw in Gomber and another pitching prospect to make it happen, like Cabrera or whomever.

    Extend Goldschmidt for 6/150, replacing his 2019 contract
    Extend Ozuna for 6/120, replacing his 2019 contract
    Extend Mikolas for 4/60, starting in 2020
    Replace Carpenter’s $18.5 club option for 2020, with a new 2/$30M cover 20 and 21 like we did with Chris Carpenter many years ago.

    Entire team is under control for 19 and 20, and within budget.

    Lineup
    1. Bader - CF (if he can reach base at a .360 clip)
    2. Carpenter - 3B
    3. Goldschmidt- 1B
    4. Harper - RF
    5. Ozuna - LF
    6. Molina - C
    7. DeJong - SS
    8. Pitcher
    9. Wong - 2B

    If Bader can’t reach base at a .360 clip, then

    1. Carpenter - 3B
    2. Ozuna - LF
    3. Goldschmidt - 1B
    4. Harper - RF
    5. Molina - C
    6. DeJong - SS
    7. Wong - 2B
    8. Pitcher
    9. Bader - CF

    Big drop from 4 to 5 haha

    I’d prefer the first lineup.


    Obviously this isn’t realistic. But you could have a trade with Arizona in place IF you can get Harper to agree and Fowler and Greinke to waive their NTC’s

    So we’d have to clear those three hurdles, and then we’d have to actually have Arizona agree this solves their problems. Taking back Fowler and paying Greinke’s deferred money would be unlikely. And we could keep Fowler under this scenario, and not paying Greinke’s deferred money, but then we can’t extend Ozuna, and we’d be over on payroll for 2019 by a bit. But, that probably makes the deal both more realistic and more likely

    Chafin+Bradley+Greinke+Goldschmidt for
    Martinez+Cecil+Montero+Gomber+O’Neill+Hudson+Kelly

    Chafin is ideal in any deal we could get in with Goldie. He’d be the other target in all of this.

    This would certainly shake things up, and we’d be a 95-100 team in 2019.



    But, it’s also not realistic at all. We’d have so many hurdles. But we’d be the team to beat in the NL for the next 5 years for sure. Only prospect that would be untouchable would be Gorman for me. And I’d prefer to hang on to Bader and Flaherty if possible.

    I don’t think moving Carpenter, Wong, or DeJong makes any sense under any scenario.


    Again, I’m restless and can’t fall asleep so just typing this so it’s off my mind haha



    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  3. #4953
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    56,574
    If we did the second scenario above (keeping Fowler, and Arizona paying the Greinke defer)

    Our 2019 payroll, would be at $185M

    Which is for sure over what they’ll want to be

    And I’m 2020, we couldn’t extend one of Ozuna or Mikolas. So that would be the catch.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  4. #4954
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Posts
    1,668
    the hell happened to most of the posts since 23rd? nothing in there was offensive or broke policy

  5. #4955
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I’m struggling to fall asleep, so I’m just playing around with this:

    Zack Grienke
    Paul Goldschmidt
    Archie Bradley
    And
    Andrew Chafin

    D’Backs cover Greinke’s deferred salaries, making him an even $21M per year in each 19, 20, and 21

    Bradley with three years of control, through 21, arb estimate is $2.0 for 19
    Chafin with two years of control, through 20, arb estimate is $1.8 for 19
    Goldie with one year of control at $14M


    Surplus values are:
    Chafin - $35M
    Bradley - $40M
    Goldie - $25M
    Greinke - $25M
    Total surplus value - $125M
    Added $38.8M to 2019 payroll

    For
    Dakota Hudson
    Elherius Montero
    Tyler O’Neill
    Carson Kelly
    Jose Martinez
    Dexter Fowler
    Brett Cecil

    we’d pay Fowler’s signing bonuses still

    Surplus values
    Hudson - $40M
    Montero - $30M
    O’Neill - $45M
    Kelly - $30M
    Martinez - $15M
    Fowler - -$25M
    Cecil - -$10M

    Total - $125M

    We cut $14.5M for Fowler, and $7.5M for Cecil, so now we have added $16.8M to our 2019 payroll, and the D’Backs have reduced theirs by the same.


    Make a corresponding move to trade Wacha and his $6.3M for anything, even a PTBNL if that’s what it takes, though we could probably get a top 250ish spec for him.

    And then, sign Harper, we’ll call it 10/$350M, but backloaded as such

    19 - $25M
    20 - $25M
    21 - $25M
    22 - $35M
    23 - $35M
    24 - $35M
    25 - $35M
    26 - $45M
    27 -$45M
    28 -$45M

    We have added the $35M we can afford to our 2019 payroll, and made it work.

    Roster
    C - Molina
    1B - Goldschmidt
    2B - Wong
    SS - DeJong
    3B - Carpenter
    LF - Ozuna
    CF - Bader
    RF - Harper

    Bench
    C - any defensive minded backup for 1-2M
    IF - Gyorko
    IF - Munoz or Sosa
    OF - Williams, Thomas, or Garcia, whoever wins it out of ST

    Rotation
    1. Greinke
    2. Flaherty
    3. Martinez
    4. Mikolas
    5. Gant

    Long - Wainwright
    R - Brebbia
    R - Gregerson
    R - Leone
    L - Chafin
    L - Shreve/Webb
    Setup - Hicks
    Closer - Bradley

    Reyes starts the year in Memphis

    Works on our 40 man too

    D’Backs new roster has a new
    Catcher
    CFer
    RFer
    Starter
    1B
    A reliever
    And Montero

    Save $16.5M in 19
    Save $10M in 20
    And save $17M in 21

    Save $45M in total, while collecting four very good prospects.


    I’d throw in Gomber and another pitching prospect to make it happen, like Cabrera or whomever.

    Extend Goldschmidt for 6/150, replacing his 2019 contract
    Extend Ozuna for 6/120, replacing his 2019 contract
    Extend Mikolas for 4/60, starting in 2020
    Replace Carpenter’s $18.5 club option for 2020, with a new 2/$30M cover 20 and 21 like we did with Chris Carpenter many years ago.

    Entire team is under control for 19 and 20, and within budget.

    Lineup
    1. Bader - CF (if he can reach base at a .360 clip)
    2. Carpenter - 3B
    3. Goldschmidt- 1B
    4. Harper - RF
    5. Ozuna - LF
    6. Molina - C
    7. DeJong - SS
    8. Pitcher
    9. Wong - 2B

    If Bader can’t reach base at a .360 clip, then

    1. Carpenter - 3B
    2. Ozuna - LF
    3. Goldschmidt - 1B
    4. Harper - RF
    5. Molina - C
    6. DeJong - SS
    7. Wong - 2B
    8. Pitcher
    9. Bader - CF

    Big drop from 4 to 5 haha

    I’d prefer the first lineup.


    Obviously this isn’t realistic. But you could have a trade with Arizona in place IF you can get Harper to agree and Fowler and Greinke to waive their NTC’s

    So we’d have to clear those three hurdles, and then we’d have to actually have Arizona agree this solves their problems. Taking back Fowler and paying Greinke’s deferred money would be unlikely. And we could keep Fowler under this scenario, and not paying Greinke’s deferred money, but then we can’t extend Ozuna, and we’d be over on payroll for 2019 by a bit. But, that probably makes the deal both more realistic and more likely

    Chafin+Bradley+Greinke+Goldschmidt for
    Martinez+Cecil+Montero+Gomber+O’Neill+Hudson+Kelly

    Chafin is ideal in any deal we could get in with Goldie. He’d be the other target in all of this.

    This would certainly shake things up, and we’d be a 95-100 team in 2019.



    But, it’s also not realistic at all. We’d have so many hurdles. But we’d be the team to beat in the NL for the next 5 years for sure. Only prospect that would be untouchable would be Gorman for me. And I’d prefer to hang on to Bader and Flaherty if possible.

    I don’t think moving Carpenter, Wong, or DeJong makes any sense under any scenario.


    Again, I’m restless and can’t fall asleep so just typing this so it’s off my mind haha



    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I'm not going to lie, both of those scenarios are horrible. Trade O'Neill, Kelly, Hudson and Montero for a couple ok relievers, 1 year of Goldy, and an aging Greinke?
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  6. #4956
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Posts
    1,743
    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    I'm not going to lie, both of those scenarios are horrible. Trade O'Neill, Kelly, Hudson and Montero for a couple ok relievers, 1 year of Goldy, and an aging Greinke?
    I actually agree with rap here. That's just too much. O"Neill has a ton of potential, and Kelly still has a bunch of value.

  7. #4957
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    midwest
    Posts
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    I actually agree with rap here. That's just too much. O"Neill has a ton of potential, and Kelly still has a bunch of value.
    I think this is the first time we have agreed lol
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  8. #4958
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Posts
    1,668
    I'd throw in Montero for Haniger and Seager although Seager has had his issues since getting his "big" contract. If Seattle would take back Fowler to basically was the contracts that would be a trade I'd do.

    I like Bradley but i'd rather spend money on bullpen arms than prospects, just me though.

  9. #4959
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    56,574
    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    I'm not going to lie, both of those scenarios are horrible. Trade O'Neill, Kelly, Hudson and Montero for a couple ok relievers, 1 year of Goldy, and an aging Greinke?
    I feel like the values are equitable and gives us a 5 year window at the top of the league.

    You guys want all-in, there it is


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  10. #4960
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    Jul 2010
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    I’d really want Chafin in any Goldie trade


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  11. #4961
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    Oct 2017
    Posts
    1,743
    For the record... I don't want ALL-IN. I want a yearly 90 win team. Sometimes we win 85, sometimes 95... but I want to average 90 wins a year for the next 5 decades.

    They have basically done that the past 20 years. 89.8 average wins per year. That's freaking unbelievably good! Breaking down "averages" a little... just to show how consistent they are, they averaged 89.8 wins in each of the last 10 years. (same win totals counting back). Next year, 1999's 75 win total will drop off of that, and put the average over 90 (unless we win 78 or fewer games next year).

    Keep it rolling! Any Cardinal fan who has been the SLIGHTEST bit disappointed in the past two decades knows very little about baseball odds. A team that wins 60% of their games is one of the best teams in any given season. The Cardinals have average 56% for 20 years!!!!

    So... no "all-in" moves. Just keep yourself out of bad situations!

  12. #4962
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    Nov 2007
    Location
    midwest
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    There’s a difference between going all in and making your team better
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  13. #4963
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    56,574
    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    For the record... I don't want ALL-IN. I want a yearly 90 win team. Sometimes we win 85, sometimes 95... but I want to average 90 wins a year for the next 5 decades.

    They have basically done that the past 20 years. 89.8 average wins per year. That's freaking unbelievably good! Breaking down "averages" a little... just to show how consistent they are, they averaged 89.8 wins in each of the last 10 years. (same win totals counting back). Next year, 1999's 75 win total will drop off of that, and put the average over 90 (unless we win 78 or fewer games next year).

    Keep it rolling! Any Cardinal fan who has been the SLIGHTEST bit disappointed in the past two decades knows very little about baseball odds. A team that wins 60% of their games is one of the best teams in any given season. The Cardinals have average 56% for 20 years!!!!

    So... no "all-in" moves. Just keep yourself out of bad situations!
    If I could copy and paste every time I see a Cards fan complaining.

    Hell, we just won 88 games

  14. #4964
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
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    56,574
    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    There’s a difference between going all in and making your team better
    $35M

    The team needs anywhere from 3-7 wins to upgrade

    So wherever they can get them with that amount of payroll, and we should be favorites to make the post-season.

  15. #4965
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Illinois
    Posts
    10,293
    The fact that Donaldson signed so early kills me. Any other plan involves Harper and I’d say the odds of that signing is 10% or less.

    If I had to put money on it, I’d say Moose, resigning Norris, and Britton is our offseason lol

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