Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Page 329 of 329 FirstFirst ... 229279319327328329
Results 4,921 to 4,927 of 4927
  1. #4921
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    midwest
    Posts
    30,382
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Fwiw, I think that's a fair trade.

    Carlos probably has the same trade value that Q did when the Cubs acquired him. And before they did, I felt that a trade for Q was going to cost a top 10 prospect.

    It's not that Q was some elite starter. It's that he was a consistently durable, 3 win, 200 inning starter with 4 years of control on a favorable contract.

    That's worth a top 10 prospect, maybe some filler behind it.

    Martinez is as effective as Q, and other than a brief stint this year, is as durable.


    But Martinez is also the type of asset a team like us would want to acquire, not trade away. If we wanted to rebuild, then we would be shipping him off.

    That said.

    When the Cubs acquired Q, they received 3.5 years (age 28-31) of a 3-5 win pitcher. 3 win is his base line, 5 win is his potential upside.

    His contract was going to pay him $33M for about 14 WAR. That's a surplus value of about $93M (14X9=126M)

    A top 10 prospect is worth about $85-100M.

    Eloy was considered a top 3 prospect when he was traded.

    Carlos has the same production value (3-5 win pitcher, worth probably 4 win each year) and he's under control for 5 more years and through his peak.

    Meaning, he should be worth about 20ish WAR to an acquiring team.

    He has $180M in total value to an acquiring team (20X9). Subtract his salary of $69M, and he's worth $111M

    That's worth a top 10 prospect in the game, plus two more good prospects behind him (maybe not top 100, but at least close to that).




    But guys, Carlos is entering his age 27 season. He isn't even in his peak yet. And we have 5 years of control over a guy who has the potential to be a TORP. A prospect we'd acquire would only give us one additional year of control, and that player is going to have a much higher probability of failure than Carlos.


    I wouldn't even consider trading Carlos this off-season. He'll still have a top 10 prospect value in an acquisition in 2 years from now if he simply maintains his output. If we decide to rebuild, he'd be our headliner.

    If we remain competitive for the next 5 years though, we'd really need to keep him in the rotation. And it sends the wrong message to guys we want to extend long term when they are young.
    I can respect what you are saying. I don't consider Tucker being a sign for us to rebuild though. I see our rotation this year not needing Martinez. Next year its possible but then again, if we bring Mikolas back, I don't see the need for Martinez. He's a good pitcher, I get that. But we have the pitching, a surplus of it. Hudson/Weaver/Gomber/Gant/Ponce/Helsley...Flaherty/Mikolas/Reyes is a great top of the rotation with the rest of the guys as very solid 4/5 starters.

    Tucker easily slips into LF when Ozuna leaves. Clearing up more money for us. Tucker/Bader/O'Neill in the outfield for years to come would be outstanding, and to have our pitching not drop off at all, I don't see it as a rebuild, but I see it as us competing this next year, and then after that having a very good lineup. Either we get Donaldson this year for 2 years, or if we take this route, we would have the money to go out and snag Arenado next year.

    That's how I look at it, at least.
    Quote Originally Posted by heimdog8 View Post
    I didn't want to throw this information out here. I was a 3 year varsity starter at QB in high school. I played quarterback in junior college as well. I was considering playing division 1 football as well but chose to pursue my career in business instead. However, currently I am helping train with Derek Carr from Fresno State get ready for his pro day and the draft. I am also working with Cody Kessler, the USC quarterback.

  2. #4922
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Posts
    936
    In the NL the Cardinals were 4th in scoring per game. They were 6th in ERA.

    4 out of the 5 teams that made the playoffs had a better ERA. The team that didn't was Colorado.

    My point is... we have to lower the team ERA if we want to make the playoffs. Moving Carlos Martinez is not the way to do that.


    Without a MONSTER offer, trading him right now is not a good idea.

  3. #4923
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    54,059
    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    I can respect what you are saying. I don't consider Tucker being a sign for us to rebuild though. I see our rotation this year not needing Martinez. Next year its possible but then again, if we bring Mikolas back, I don't see the need for Martinez. He's a good pitcher, I get that. But we have the pitching, a surplus of it. Hudson/Weaver/Gomber/Gant/Ponce/Helsley...Flaherty/Mikolas/Reyes is a great top of the rotation with the rest of the guys as very solid 4/5 starters.

    Tucker easily slips into LF when Ozuna leaves. Clearing up more money for us. Tucker/Bader/O'Neill in the outfield for years to come would be outstanding, and to have our pitching not drop off at all, I don't see it as a rebuild, but I see it as us competing this next year, and then after that having a very good lineup. Either we get Donaldson this year for 2 years, or if we take this route, we would have the money to go out and snag Arenado next year.

    That's how I look at it, at least.
    And I can respect that.

    This year, we probably don't NEED Carlos, but with injuries, he'll get his starts. Best case, he's a fantastic number 3 starter, with the upside to be a TORP. Worst case, he battles injuries or regressed performance and lack of control. But, with 5 years of control for cheap, he has plenty of time to turn into a stud, and we can backout if he doesn't

    After this year though, we lose Wacha, Wainwright, and Mikolas

    I could see Wainwright doing his same contract again if he has a good year, but I imagine he'll retire after this year (thought he would after last year honestly).

    Mikolas could be re-signed, but it depends how well he does and how much he'll want. I would assume the team would want him back. Wacha is unlikely to be retained I feel. If he has a great year, then they'll QO him. But he has horrible xwOBA numbers, is widely inconsistent, and not the stud they thought he'd become. If he has a poor year, it's a guarantee they won't extend him. If he has a 3.60 ERA year and 200 innings, then maybe a reunion can happen on a relatively shorter agreement (4 years?)

    I see 2020 rotation locks as

    1. Flaherty, who I love, but can easily regress. He is no lock
    2. Mikolas, if we can talk him into coming back and he has another great year
    3. Gant, if he continues to pitch like he did last year
    4. ????
    5. ????

    We have a host of options though
    Weaver, Gomber, Hudson, Ponce, Reyes, Woodford, Helsley, Cabrera, Kruz, etc

    But where are the locks for 30 starts?

    Martinez is the kind of guy we would want to be acquire.

    And I see the outfield as a little jammed up. O'Neill deserves every opportunity, so does Bader. Justin Williams will deserve chances, were stuck with Fowler, and we have good prospects behind these guys, like Chapel, Thomas, Pinder, Carlson, etc.



    The ideal prospect to get for Carlos Martinez, IMO, would be Fernando Tatis Jr. And I don't see why the Padres would move him at this point, and I don't see why would want to move Carlos when he is the ideal pitcher for us over the next 5 years. He could be our rotation anchor, and we have some turnover coming.

    I'd say my reasoning is that I like our outfield prospects long term more than I like our pitching prospects. Dylan Carlson and Lane Thomas both strike me as guys that will be patrolling our outfield by 2021 with Bader and O'Neill. With the exception of Bader, these are three potentially big power prospects. And Justin Williams isn't a slouch either.

    But, it would be amazing to get a long term, stud shortstop and allow DeJong to play second or third (or that prospect).

    We have some nice prospects basically every where but SS and C, and we have a lot of average starting pitching prospects.

    So I wouldn't get rid of a potential anchor rotation for an outfield prospect, but that's me.


    So many directions we can, and I'm excited to see the steps that Carlson, Gorman, Montero, Knizer, Woodford, and Thomas all take this year. That will be a big sign of things to come for us.

    I want Donaldson, and then I want two relievers. And I'd prefer to keep Martinez and our prospects, minus if we can land someone like maybe Paxton or something simple that doesn't drive too deep into our prospect pool (basically, if it doesn't touch one of those guys, who I just personally really like).

  4. #4924
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    54,059
    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    In the NL the Cardinals were 4th in scoring per game. They were 6th in ERA.

    4 out of the 5 teams that made the playoffs had a better ERA. The team that didn't was Colorado.

    My point is... we have to lower the team ERA if we want to make the playoffs. Moving Carlos Martinez is not the way to do that.


    Without a MONSTER offer, trading him right now is not a good idea.
    Realistically


    If the Padres offered us (in this made up world, Preller is as crazy as he seems) Tatis Jr and Logan Allen for Carlos

    Do you take it?

  5. #4925
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    midwest
    Posts
    30,382
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Realistically


    If the Padres offered us (in this made up world, Preller is as crazy as he seems) Tatis Jr and Logan Allen for Carlos

    Do you take it?
    I honestly don't know how you couldn't...I will admit though that I'm not the biggest fan of Carlos though, so perhaps I'm biased.
    Quote Originally Posted by heimdog8 View Post
    I didn't want to throw this information out here. I was a 3 year varsity starter at QB in high school. I played quarterback in junior college as well. I was considering playing division 1 football as well but chose to pursue my career in business instead. However, currently I am helping train with Derek Carr from Fresno State get ready for his pro day and the draft. I am also working with Cody Kessler, the USC quarterback.

  6. #4926
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    midwest
    Posts
    30,382
    Y'all talked me into letting the trading Carlos soooo

    Trade for Goldschmidt with Jose Martinez and Luke Weaver.

    Trade Gyroko for whatever

    Trade Kelly + Wong to the Twins for Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker, Stephen Gonsalves

    Sign JD, Adams, and Kimbrel

    Carpenter 2B (utility)
    Donaldson 3B
    Goldschmidt 1B
    Ozuna LF
    Molina C
    O'Neill RF
    DeJong SS
    Bader CF

    Bench
    Adams 1B
    Fowler OF
    Munoz INF/OF
    Suzuki C
    Schrock INF

    Rotation
    Flaherty
    Martinez
    Mikolas
    Wacha
    Waino

    Gant Long Relief
    Leone RHP
    Ponce RHP
    Rogers LHP
    Cecil LHP
    Hicks SU
    Kimbrel CL
    Quote Originally Posted by heimdog8 View Post
    I didn't want to throw this information out here. I was a 3 year varsity starter at QB in high school. I played quarterback in junior college as well. I was considering playing division 1 football as well but chose to pursue my career in business instead. However, currently I am helping train with Derek Carr from Fresno State get ready for his pro day and the draft. I am also working with Cody Kessler, the USC quarterback.

  7. #4927
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Posts
    936
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Realistically


    If the Padres offered us (in this made up world, Preller is as crazy as he seems) Tatis Jr and Logan Allen for Carlos

    Do you take it?
    Yes. Only because Allen replaces whatever Carlos was going to bring on the pitching side of things.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •