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  1. #5131
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    midwest
    Posts
    31,491
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I'd argue that you do care what he's making, because you use that as your argument for being justifiably frustrated with him.

    Play wise, only. He's 8th in fWAR and 8th in wRC+. Worth a starting role, but not to the hit in the top of the lineup, but rather the back end.
    Or that just means our team is lacking. He hasn't earned anything. And you dont play a guy who isnt helping just because hes paid a lot of money. Hes not getting it done.
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  2. #5132
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    56,155
    Quote Originally Posted by rapjuicer06 View Post
    Or that just means our team is lacking. He hasn't earned anything. And you dont play a guy who isnt helping just because hes paid a lot of money. Hes not getting it done.
    He shouldn't play because of his contract, and I don't think he was or is.

    Carpenter has a history of his success, and was successful as recently as just last year. It isn't typical for a player to completely lose his success that rapidly in baseball, especially to a true 3 outcome hitter. The faster regression guys (historically) are guys whose production is comes from their legs (though not always - Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Ichiro are certainly exceptions). But the three outcome hitters have longer aging curves https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...r-aging-curves. It is still a mystery why Carpenter has regressed so hard the last 12 months, but he does have stronger periphs and has been trending upward since he came back from his injuries. He is going to get every shot to earn his job back next year, and he should.

    But even with those regressions, he is still the 8th most productive player on the roster this year. Maybe that says more about our roster than it does Carpenter, but it would be silly to squash his rebound potential due to impatience.

    Next off-season, I see the infield being Goldie, Wong, DeJong, with Edman and Carpenter splitting third. If Carpenter manages to rebound, third is hit, and Edman is a full time utility player getting a lot of starts, playing everywhere and being the injury replacement. If Carpenter struggles, then he's going to spend 2020 and 2021 as our primary pinch hitter off the bench with spot starts at third. We won't be able to move his contract if that's the situation. And if he fails, they'll just outright release him in 2021, but they'll continue to hold out hope that he can rebound while he is under team control. But that's because of his history, not because of his contract.


    I look at our 2020 roster as such

    C - Molina (last year of current contract)
    C - They may want another veteran backup so Knizner can start the season playing everyday in Memphis, but at some point, he needs to be on the everyday roster and getting spot starts until he can steal Yadi's job long term. I think the bounce in Yadi's step next spring will determine Knizner's future more than Knizner's performance. But I can see a vet backup like a Wieters or Pena brought back again in the spring for depth
    1B - Goldie
    2B - Wong
    SS - DeJong
    3B - Carpenter
    LF - Fowler
    CF - Bader
    RF - Martinez (won't start much, depends on his and Carpenter's performances, but the young outfielders will do the majority of these starts).

    Bench
    Util - Edman - getting 5 starts per week, if Carpenter is doing well, then RF a lot, if not, then 3B a lot
    C - backup or Knizner
    IF - One of Munoz, Shrock, Urias, or Sosa
    OF - Thomas
    1B/OF - Martinez

    Prospects to watch

    3B - Mendoza will certainly start the year in Memphis, but I expect him to get a spring invite. Has a plus arm and should eventually turn into a pretty good contact hitter, could surprise and eventually get some starts at third as early as 2020
    RF - Carlson. Top prospect, the moment he's ready, he'll be starting in right field, and it should be no later than mid-season (assuming health)
    C - Knizner, depends on Yadi
    OF - Capel. Is basically another Ben Gamel. Probably needs a platoon partner (lefty hitter). But can play all three outfield positions.
    OF - Arozarena. Will be in the outfield mix all year
    OF - Wiliams. Same as Arozarena
    IF - Lopez. Another Tommy Edman


    I doubt Ozuna is back next year, but if they do bring him back, I expect O'Neill to be traded, though he has limited prospect value because he aged another year and didn't perform like hoped in his limited opportunities. If they don't bring him back, he'll likely be held onto, as well the other younger outfielders.

    I think they'll use the remaining $20-25M on pitching.



    I say all of this, but our weakness this year wasn't the rotation or bullpen, it was the offense. But we have the offense that is capable of doing so much more. But I can see them spending that money on offense instead because the performances this year were rather weak. I am not sure how they would address it in free agency though. Likely through trades from the outfield depth, or maybe they just bring Ozuna back.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 09-16-2019 at 10:22 AM.

  3. #5133
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    midwest
    Posts
    31,491
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    He shouldn't play because of his contract, and I don't think he was or is.

    Carpenter has a history of his success, and was successful as recently as just last year. It isn't typical for a player to completely lose his success that rapidly in baseball, especially to a true 3 outcome hitter. The faster regression guys (historically) are guys whose production is comes from their legs (though not always - Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Ichiro are certainly exceptions). But the three outcome hitters have longer aging curves https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...r-aging-curves. It is still a mystery why Carpenter has regressed so hard the last 12 months, but he does have stronger periphs and has been trending upward since he came back from his injuries. He is going to get every shot to earn his job back next year, and he should.

    But even with those regressions, he is still the 8th most productive player on the roster this year. Maybe that says more about our roster than it does Carpenter, but it would be silly to squash his rebound potential due to impatience.

    Next off-season, I see the infield being Goldie, Wong, DeJong, with Edman and Carpenter splitting third. If Carpenter manages to rebound, third is hit, and Edman is a full time utility player getting a lot of starts, playing everywhere and being the injury replacement. If Carpenter struggles, then he's going to spend 2020 and 2021 as our primary pinch hitter off the bench with spot starts at third. We won't be able to move his contract if that's the situation. And if he fails, they'll just outright release him in 2021, but they'll continue to hold out hope that he can rebound while he is under team control. But that's because of his history, not because of his contract.


    I look at our 2020 roster as such

    C - Molina (last year of current contract)
    C - They may want another veteran backup so Knizner can start the season playing everyday in Memphis, but at some point, he needs to be on the everyday roster and getting spot starts until he can steal Yadi's job long term. I think the bounce in Yadi's step next spring will determine Knizner's future more than Knizner's performance. But I can see a vet backup like a Wieters or Pena brought back again in the spring for depth
    1B - Goldie
    2B - Wong
    SS - DeJong
    3B - Carpenter
    LF - Fowler
    CF - Bader
    RF - Martinez (won't start much, depends on his and Carpenter's performances, but the young outfielders will do the majority of these starts).

    Bench
    Util - Edman - getting 5 starts per week, if Carpenter is doing well, then RF a lot, if not, then 3B a lot
    C - backup or Knizner
    IF - One of Munoz, Shrock, Urias, or Sosa
    OF - Thomas
    1B/OF - Martinez

    Prospects to watch

    3B - Mendoza will certainly start the year in Memphis, but I expect him to get a spring invite. Has a plus arm and should eventually turn into a pretty good contact hitter, could surprise and eventually get some starts at third as early as 2020
    RF - Carlson. Top prospect, the moment he's ready, he'll be starting in right field, and it should be no later than mid-season (assuming health)
    C - Knizner, depends on Yadi
    OF - Capel. Is basically another Ben Gamel. Probably needs a platoon partner (lefty hitter). But can play all three outfield positions.
    OF - Arozarena. Will be in the outfield mix all year
    OF - Wiliams. Same as Arozarena
    IF - Lopez. Another Tommy Edman


    I doubt Ozuna is back next year, but if they do bring him back, I expect O'Neill to be traded, though he has limited prospect value because he aged another year and didn't perform like hoped in his limited opportunities. If they don't bring him back, he'll likely be held onto, as well the other younger outfielders.

    I think they'll use the remaining $20-25M on pitching.



    I say all of this, but our weakness this year wasn't the rotation or bullpen, it was the offense. But we have the offense that is capable of doing so much more. But I can see them spending that money on offense instead because the performances this year were rather weak. I am not sure how they would address it in free agency though. Likely through trades from the outfield depth, or maybe they just bring Ozuna back.
    Or Nicholas Castellanos. Hes a valid option long term too
    2019

    QB-Lock
    RB-Montgomery
    WR-AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler
    TE-TJ Hockenson
    Edge-Allen
    LB-Devon White, Blake Cashman
    CB-Joejuan Williams
    S-Dieonte Thompson

  4. #5134
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Posts
    1,474
    Tommy Edman is playing like a rockstar. What is his trade value at the end of the season? I mean... I feel like it would be an opportunity to sell high.

  5. #5135
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Posts
    1,474
    Just wondering if he would be of any value in a trade for someone like Thor. Along with prospects.

  6. #5136
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    56,155
    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    Tommy Edman is playing like a rockstar. What is his trade value at the end of the season? I mean... I feel like it would be an opportunity to sell high.
    It would be fairly high, but we gotta keep him. 5 years of a great utility player is ideal for a playoff caliber team.

  7. #5137
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    56,155
    Quote Originally Posted by Obabikon View Post
    Just wondering if he would be of any value in a trade for someone like Thor. Along with prospects.
    I'd rather have Edman because of what it allows us to do everyday. Obviously an ace is invaluable, but a good utility player who can justify starts is really really valuable.

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