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  1. #1
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    OT: Betting on Baseball Using Sabermetrics

    The way we view the game, more importantly player worth and value, has evolved over the years with the help of sabermetrics. The use of sabermetrics helps us analyze each player on an individual basis.

    Are there any good books and/or websites that utilize sabermetrics in terms of handicapping baseball games? I know baseball prospectus predicts standings, etc. But short of finding trends by yourself, are there any sites out there that do "the dirty work" for you and handicap daily?

    I'm not talking about these BS betting tip sites that claim to have "experts" either. I'd like to know if there is a site solely dedicated to using saber formulas to help handicap games.

  2. #2
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    Not that I know of. And I would think that given everything we know about baseball(how much randomness comes in day to day) that you won't find much because there isn't much.

    My guess would be if you ever see a big line where one team is heavily favored, take the underdog. I don't think there are many circumstances where one team can reasonably be considered more than a 60-65% favorite.


  3. #3
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    There was a story about a Pirates fan a few years back who bet the same amount against them for every game of the season. He wound out coming pretty far ahead, wishing he bet more.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yagyu View Post
    There was a story about a Pirates fan a few years back who bet the same amount against them for every game of the season. He wound out coming pretty far ahead, wishing he bet more.
    I think it all depends on what the lines look like. You're never going to get good odds of predicting single games. So even if you went with Accuscore from ESPN or something you're still going to have to make hundreds of bets to make any real money, because except for the most extreme examples(Yankees on a Sabathia day versus Astros on their 5th starter's day) you're never going to get more than a 60% shot of predicting a single game. So you'd have to bet a ton of times and basically win something like 300/500 to make some real money.

    On the other hand, if you find somewhere dumb enough to put big odds on games I think you could take advantage. If a team is a 4:1 shot going up against Halladay, you bet on them every time because they're going to win more than 20% of the time. You could game this system by betting on severe underdogs. It would still take a large number of bets to make real money, but not anything crazy like above.


  5. #5
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    I've thought about doing something where you pick a team that's likely to win 90+ games and just bet the same amount on them every day.

    Depending on the odds, I'd think you'd come out ahead at the end of the season, even if it wasn't by much.

    Either way, betting on baseball is pretty difficult because of the nature of the game. There are so many possible outcomes of any one pitch that predicting what will happen is extremely difficult.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Milnertime View Post
    I've thought about doing something where you pick a team that's likely to win 90+ games and just bet the same amount on them every day.

    Depending on the odds, I'd think you'd come out ahead at the end of the season, even if it wasn't by much.

    Either way, betting on baseball is pretty difficult because of the nature of the game. There are so many possible outcomes of any one pitch that predicting what will happen is extremely difficult.
    I wonder how much you'd net if you did that on the Yankee team that won nearly 120(?) games.

  7. #7
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    Or alternatively, bet against the Cubs every Opening Day. You are bound to come out ahead!

    But more on-topic, the standard deviation on a small sample size of games is bound to be huge. You would have to put in serious volume to have a positive expectation.

  8. #8
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    Wouldn't baseball bets have a spread?
    So it wouldn't matter if the Yankees won 120 games, they would still have to win by a few runs per games to cover the spread. That is, if they were favored that game

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chazm View Post
    Wouldn't baseball bets have a spread?
    So it wouldn't matter if the Yankees won 120 games, they would still have to win by a few runs per games to cover the spread. That is, if they were favored that game
    Unless you simply moneyline it.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chazm View Post
    Wouldn't baseball bets have a spread?
    So it wouldn't matter if the Yankees won 120 games, they would still have to win by a few runs per games to cover the spread. That is, if they were favored that game
    Yes, as noted above you can bet a baseball game without a "spread" by betting the moneyline. The team has to win and you win. Sounds easy right? Well not really. That's because favorites won't pay even odds, or even close to it. In fact, you'll typically see something like -140 or higher for favorites. What that means is you have to bet $140 to win $100. Considering even the best teams in baseball lose 60+ games in a season, well, you can do the math.

    Conversely using the example above, if a betting site places odds using the "dime line", then the underdog above would have a line of +130. You bet $100 to win $130.

    You can also bet baseball using a "spread" by betting the run line where most of the time you either give 1.5 runs or get 1.5 runs as the underdog.

    I've never done it nor have I ever tracked this sort of thing, but supposedly if you consistently bet underdogs in the long run you'll come out ahead. What that spread or variance is or how many games at what dollar amount you'd have to bet, I have no idea.
    Last edited by SonnyD; 01-19-2012 at 12:51 AM.

  11. #11
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    nearly every game, the spread is +/- 1.5
    Not always, but that is the most common spread.

    If you ever bet on baseball, I would always bet the money line for the underdog.
    Over the course of the year, you will have a better chance of profiting.

    You don't even have to hit 50% of your bets. If you get 4 out of 10 correct, you're going to come out ahead.

    You just have to be lucky and pick the correct upsets

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by croce_99 View Post
    nearly every game, the spread is +/- 1.5
    Not always, but that is the most common spread.

    If you ever bet on baseball, I would always bet the money line for the underdog.
    Over the course of the year, you will have a better chance of profiting.

    You don't even have to hit 50% of your bets. If you get 4 out of 10 correct, you're going to come out ahead.

    You just have to be lucky and pick the correct upsets
    Cubs. Everytime the Cubs.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Cubs. Everytime the Cubs.
    Well if they win 75 games......
    75-87

    Likely be underdogs every game

    Out of 162 games, if you correctly guess 75 of the games, you'll come out ahead quite a bit.

  14. #14
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    I get worked up enough as it is watching the Cubs, I couldn't imagine having money on the game as well.

  15. #15
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    Baseball betting is very difficult. My friend who has been pretty successful betting in other sports stays away from baseball except for a few bets here and there bc it kills his bankroll betting big.
    MUST BE REAL BAD TO BRING ME BACK

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