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  1. #16
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    44,353
    Quote Originally Posted by quinnjack View Post
    ISaltalamacchia: He's never been an OBP warrior, far from it. His strikeout numbers have kept his averages down his entire professional career. But, and granted it's a TINY sample size, last year in his cup o' coffee with the Sox he drew 6 BB to only 4 K. I know, I know.. It's hard to read anything in to that, BUT it does show me that he arrived in Boston and they immediately put emphasis on taking pitches. This is only going to help him be a better offensive player.

    If you look at his accomplishments, across all levels, assuming 500 AB in a season his average season looks like this:

    16.9 HR 70.4 RBI .256 BA <--- Good numbers for a catcher, but you have to anticipate the possibility that he improves given the new system he is in, new coaches, and the fact that he's still only 25.

    Lowrie: Sure, he hit 9 HR in September, but let's bear in mind he did this off of expanded roster pitchers. Power has never been Lowrie's game, although I do not think that 18 over the course of 550 AB's is out of the question.

    Look through his career accomplishments and he's got a tremendous eye at the plate, and exceptional patience - A career .380 OBP in the minor leagues.

    In the end I think we all know what a HEALTHY 1-7 gives us (Ellsbury, Pedroia, Crawford, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Ortiz, Drew) -- The real wild card is the aforementioned, what the Sox get out of the 8 and 9 spots.
    I doubt Salty gets 550 AB's in fact I assure you he will not.

    Beckett is going to want his binky - Tek, one of the other SP's is going to get Tek as well - in particular if he doesn't start before or after Beckett. That's a 3/5 split for Salty - at probably the #8 line-up slot. That would be about 645 PA's for the #8 slot in this line-up. I see ~387 PA's (not AB) for Salty - assuming we don't make a deal for a better catcher.

    I still think Drew & Ortiz (decline) and Youk & Pedroia & Ellsbury (return from injury) are the bigger question marks. If they all come through, Salty and Tek can hit .230/.310/.385 combined, and play neutral defense and we'll be golden.

    As for Lowrie, above average D at SS and 3B, a .350+ OBP, and a nice brace of doubles would be a good get from him.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  2. #17
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    CT
    Posts
    2,769
    ya absolutely.....we woulda competed last yr if it wasnt for injuries.....i just hate how people are like who cares that they got crawford and agon....they lost beltre and vmart.....those ppl have to put in perspective that beltre put up the best numbers of his career and actually one of the better yrs a 3b has had in a while.....and vmart was dookie for most of the yr.....i think he had like 9 hrs at the all star break....it wasnt till late august/september until he started padding his stats, i remember he had like 7 jacks in like 10-14 days or sotin like that....so our offense will be better this yr....and should expect bounce back yrs for beckett and lackey....

  3. #18
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    Posts
    17,930
    With the lineup the Sox have I will not worry too much about Beckett and Lackey until the playoffs. While Lackey was prone to some terrible outings he was better than league average for 4/6 months during the season and his ERA+ of 99 should not be a terrific concern with a lineup capable of scoring 6 runs per game. Similarly Beckett will either be injured or not, and if he is then we've still got a small stable of potential replacements that can be in the ERA+ 90 range and survive as a #5 with a strong lineup.

    As for return from injury, I am not too concerned about Pedroia. The foot injury may limit his range defensively at the start of the year but should not effect his offense too dramatically (IMO). Maybe a few less singles stretched to doubles and fewer SB but we're net positive in that department anyway.

    Youk is probably the bigger concern. A hand injury has got to be tough for a hitter. Add to that the move across the diamond to a more physically demanding position and we're likely to see a bit less offense from him. I don't think it will be a dramatic drop.

  4. #19
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    255
    The Red Sox clearly have a lineup good enough to win the division. Last year's division winner-Tampa Bay has lost key parts of their lineup and will have to rely almost solely on pitching. The Yankees lineup is strong and maybe just as good if not better than the Red Sox lineup but look at their starting pitching...

    Even if those returning from injury get off to slow starts the Red Sox should have the most complete and well-rounded roster in the division and come away as the AL East champs in 2011.

  5. #20
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    239
    We have a good enough line-up to win the division and even the WS. If Lackey can step it up (which personally think is a little over rated) and have Beckett get back to form. If they don't I don't know we have enough even for the wild card, because of the Tigers and White Sox.

  6. #21
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    35,855
    The offense is the last thing we have to worry about being good enough

  7. #22
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    The North Pole
    Posts
    3,774
    Quote Originally Posted by rayallenjfb View Post
    Do the Red sox have a good enough lineup to win the Division?

    I think they do because of Adrian Gonzalez and their Free agent acquisitions.
    I'm not sure how to answer your question, but on paper we have the best lineup in baseball. I think that should be enough to win the division. It's not like they have to make up for a bad rotation or bullpen. Our rotation is one of the 5 best in baseball and our bullpen looks pretty solid this year.

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