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  1. #16
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    Jul 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by athlete9393 View Post
    why can't we post pictures in a thread? That's ****ing gay!
    Usually more harm than good can happen when you allow users to post photos.

  2. #17
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    Nov 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunedinjays View Post
    PAP is the MAN!!
    Sadly that appears true...

    On 4-13-09 I wrote:

    Papelbon's stats 2006-2008:

    year - K/9 - AVE RAA LOB% Dera WHIP BABIP

    2006 09.88 .172 041 92.4 1.70 0.78 .239
    2007 12.96 .154 028 88.1 2.73 0.77 .237
    2008 10.00 .229 002 69.5 4.69 0.95 .313

    There is a notable decline over these three years, anyone that can't see it live, or understand it on paper is delusional or doesn't know anything about pitching.

    I wrote that I thought it was unlikely that we would deal him this year, and would be more likely to let him walk at the end of a year.

    The more I think about his big mouth, his shoulder, and his notable decline, the more I want Theo to be BB, and deal this guy while he is at or near his max value.

    Then later that day:

    I said over three years it is a notable decline - so that's what we are talking about, not what he might be in 2013. A:

    2.5X change for the worse in Dera from '06 to '08
    50% increase in BA from '07 to '08
    40% increase in BABIP from '07 to '08
    20x reduction in runs saved from '06 to '08, and a 14x reduction from '07 to '08 is notable.
    4x worse LOB% from '06 to '08.
    > 20% increase in WHIP in '08 over '06 and '07

    I stand by what I wrote. His lack of command he has shown at times is notable. If you can't see it, and/or cannot understand these numbers (I didn't make them up) it doesn't make them false.

    Factor in his shoulder, and his not being a typical Theo guy, he seems like a heck of a target to me.

    Then later that day:

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sawxfan
    I agree with you, but statistics are tough to look at if that is the reason you think he should be gone.


    Statistics support my opinion that he has developed a command issue over his breaking balls in '08. If was Calvin Schiraldi in '06 and '07, his '08 would have been seen as a giant success. But Papelbon like every other sports star in Boston that started at the top gets no mercy when he falters. In '06 Paps probably put up one of the 12 best closer seasons in history. His '07 was good, but if someone said it was statistically #47, it wouldn't surprise me. His '08 was down again. That is a trend. A trend in the stats and trend to the eye. That's what I see.

    Quote:
    He has not given up a run in the postseason. You speak of his command and last game I agree, but the guy had 8 walks in 69 innings. I realize he's not always hitting his spots, but I don't know anyone who always hits his spots. 8 walks in 69 innings means he is pounding the strike zone, which is ultimately what we want him to do.

    But the point is here, not the BB's per inning which were good. For him last year the problem was the amount of batted balls that fell - it was a lot higher then before. The reason is BB's were down and his BA up is that he was throwing fastballs over the plate.

    Quote:
    Because I disagree does not mean I don't understand. Please ease up on the condescension. Just because you stand by what you write does not make it right. Oh, did I mention he still has not given up a run in the playoffs? And that is why we play the games? Excuse the sarcasm.

    <edit> How's that scoreless streak doing now? By all means DO NOT excuse my sarcasm>

    Excuse me, it is clear to me that between the stats and the actual visible performance he has gone downhill since '06 - '08. You can feel free to think what you want, but it is what it is.

    Today:

    I was right then, we could have picked up ~half of what we dealt for Agon if we dealt him. I took a lot of crap for a long time over his "decline" and the advisability of dealing him then. Well, that was fun. I can get a laugh out of all of you that posted Papelbon was going to be better then Rivera.... ho ho.

    Papelbon is just another closer running off of guts, because his stuff is fading and has been fading. One more year, and BTW, no chance at draft picks anymore. One of Theo's failures was hanging onto this stiff past 2008 or mid season 2009.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 12-31-2010 at 01:01 PM.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  3. 12-31-2010, 03:03 PM
    Reason
    Unnecessary

  4. #18
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    Nov 2010
    Location
    Clearwater
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Sadly that appears true...

    On 4-13-09 I wrote:

    Papelbon's stats 2006-2008:

    year - K/9 - AVE RAA LOB% Dera WHIP BABIP

    2006 09.88 .172 041 92.4 1.70 0.78 .239
    2007 12.96 .154 028 88.1 2.73 0.77 .237
    2008 10.00 .229 002 69.5 4.69 0.95 .313

    There is a notable decline over these three years, anyone that can't see it live, or understand it on paper is delusional or doesn't know anything about pitching.

    I wrote that I thought it was unlikely that we would deal him this year, and would be more likely to let him walk at the end of a year.

    The more I think about his big mouth, his shoulder, and his notable decline, the more I want Theo to be BB, and deal this guy while he is at or near his max value.

    Then later that day:

    I said over three years it is a notable decline - so that's what we are talking about, not what he might be in 2013. A:

    2.5X change for the worse in Dera from '06 to '08
    50% increase in BA from '07 to '08
    40% increase in BABIP from '07 to '08
    20x reduction in runs saved from '06 to '08, and a 14x reduction from '07 to '08 is notable.
    4x worse LOB% from '06 to '08.
    > 20% increase in WHIP in '08 over '06 and '07

    I stand by what I wrote. His lack of command he has shown at times is notable. If you can't see it, and/or cannot understand these numbers (I didn't make them up) it doesn't make them false.

    Factor in his shoulder, and his not being a typical Theo guy, he seems like a heck of a target to me.

    Then later that day:

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sawxfan
    I agree with you, but statistics are tough to look at if that is the reason you think he should be gone.


    Statistics support my opinion that he has developed a command issue over his breaking balls in '08. If was Calvin Schiraldi in '06 and '07, his '08 would have been seen as a giant success. But Papelbon like every other sports star in Boston that started at the top gets no mercy when he falters. In '06 Paps probably put up one of the 12 best closer seasons in history. His '07 was good, but if someone said it was statistically #47, it wouldn't surprise me. His '08 was down again. That is a trend. A trend in the stats and trend to the eye. That's what I see.

    Quote:
    He has not given up a run in the postseason. You speak of his command and last game I agree, but the guy had 8 walks in 69 innings. I realize he's not always hitting his spots, but I don't know anyone who always hits his spots. 8 walks in 69 innings means he is pounding the strike zone, which is ultimately what we want him to do.

    But the point is here, not the BB's per inning which were good. For him last year the problem was the amount of batted balls that fell - it was a lot higher then before. The reason is BB's were down and his BA up is that he was throwing fastballs over the plate.

    Quote:
    Because I disagree does not mean I don't understand. Please ease up on the condescension. Just because you stand by what you write does not make it right. Oh, did I mention he still has not given up a run in the playoffs? And that is why we play the games? Excuse the sarcasm.

    <edit> How's that scoreless streak doing now? By all means DO NOT excuse my sarcasm>

    Excuse me, it is clear to me that between the stats and the actual visible performance he has gone downhill since '06 - '08. You can feel free to think what you want, but it is what it is.

    Today:

    I was right then, we could have picked up ~half of what we dealt for Agon if we dealt him. I took a lot of crap for a long time over his "decline" and the advisability of dealing him then. Well, that was fun. I can get a laugh out of all of you that posted Papelbon was going to be better then Rivera.... ho ho.

    Papelbon is just another closer running off of guts, because his stuff is fading and has been fading. One more year, and BTW, no chance at draft picks anymore. One of Theo's failures was hanging onto this stiff past 2008 or mid season 2009.
    wow thats a lot to vent. Lighten up, its new years eve!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  5. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Youkahhhhhh View Post
    good grief.. one of the best closers in team history and you're calling him a stiff now.. and basically downplaying all of his accomplishments.. you are one bitter fan ill tell you that much
    I don't see how Papelbon being one of the best closers in team history and him having some nice accomplishments is a reason to keep him on board.

    He isn't calling him a stiff, he's showing how Papelbon has declined sharply through the years.

  6. #20
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    Nov 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Youkahhhhhh View Post
    good grief.. one of the best closers in team history and you're calling him a stiff now.. and basically downplaying all of his accomplishments.. you are one bitter fan ill tell you that much
    It has nothing to do with bitterness (besides all the crap I took in '08 and '09 for wanting him dealt). He's in decline and has been in decline, his value is now less then his contract (does that mean he is a stiff? It doesn't mean he is great, does it??). And this mythic #1 draft pick we were going to get for him when he left is also gone, long gone.

    I could care less about loyalty, that was for the pre FA generation. I want the best guys. I appreciate deeply what Manny, Ortiz, Damon, Schilling (and more) did for this team. I'm glad they are all gone (or will be gone), I'll be glad when Paps is gone as well.

    Discussing '04 and '07 is one thing. But this thread is totally in the context of 2011. In 2011 I don't want Paps, I want what we could have had for him at the end of 2008.


    You argue for Peyton Manning as better then Brady in one thread (and label me a homer, and then choose the top 5 of all time w/o Unitas, Young, Staubach, Starr, Graham), then start complaining about team loyalty here. How big a ring do you have in your nose? Do you speak for yourself, or are you a media creation of some sort? Look in the mirror and take stock, and most importantly do not presume to tell me what to think, since no matter if you agree or disagree - these thoughts are mine and mine alone.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 12-31-2010 at 05:00 PM.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  7. #21
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    Nov 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunedinjays View Post
    wow thats a lot to vent. Lighten up, its new years eve!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    I celebrate Festivus. I have a iPOD with Festivus engraved on it, and an aluminum pole in my family room.

    This is now the time to air grievances prior to the feats of strength.

    Please do not try and alter my religious practices.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  8. #22
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    Aug 2009
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    Canada
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    1,371
    Quote Originally Posted by Youkahhhhhh View Post
    good grief.. one of the best closers in team history and you're calling him a stiff now.. and basically downplaying all of his accomplishments.. you are one bitter fan ill tell you that much
    I don't think he's calling him a stiff, rather pointing out the obvious, he hasn't been as effective over the last 3 years, and there is a trend developing, ufortunately in the downward direction,and I agree with him on that.
    The numbers are there to substantiate that. The glare into homeplate from under the bill of his cap, doesn't seem to be intimidating too many any longer. When I see him coming into a tight game now, I don't have that "well the game is in the bag now " feeling any longer. Papelbon still seems to have good life on his fastball, but he is missing too often in the middle of the strikezone, and he is getting hit more. He may have to lean on his splitter and another 2ndary pitch to keep hitters off balance, rather than just trying to blow it by them still.

    I agree with you that numbers wise, he is one of the best closer in team history, and hopefully having Jenks and CO. will help inspire him to try and get back to the level he was at a few years ago. I do think he will be on a somewhat short leash though.

  9. #23
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    oh i agree.. i agree that hes on the downswing.. and hes gone after this year no doubt about that.. i just think the word stiff is a little harsh considering all the great numbers hes put up as a closer here

  10. 12-31-2010, 05:36 PM
    Reason
    Unnecessary

  11. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    I celebrate Festivus. I have a iPOD with Festivus engraved on it, and an aluminum pole in my family room.

    This is now the time to air grievances prior to the feats of strength.

    Please do not try and alter my religious practices.
    Your a little late, festivus is before new years

  12. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunedinjays View Post
    Your a little late, festivus is before new years
    I'm Orthodox.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  13. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunedinjays View Post
    Your a little late, festivus is before new years
    the real question is do you have the pole?

  14. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Youkahhhhhh View Post
    the real question is do you have the pole?
    Reread post #21.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  15. #28
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    5,060
    Nostradamus type stuff.......

  16. #29
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    Greenville, SC
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    It has nothing to do with bitterness (besides all the crap I took in '08 and '09 for wanting him dealt). He's in decline and has been in decline, his value is now less then his contract (does that mean he is a stiff? It doesn't mean he is great, does it??). And this mythic #1 draft pick we were going to get for him when he left is also gone, long gone.
    Not sure exactly what you meant by the bolded part. Just in case it's relevant, Papelbon was #8 on projected Elias rankings for RP. Closers fit into the broader RP market in the rankings and a #8 slot puts Paps solidly in the top third of Type A ranking. He'd have to have a Wayback Wasdin year to lose Type A status.

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