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  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by taffi101 View Post
    If his velocity does not return, he is going to have a tough time adjusting.
    He may have to re-invent himself somewhat. Become more of a pitcher, than a "here it is see if you can hit it type" ......
    Bingo, I've been talking about this for it seems like over a year. He needs to transition if he cannot maintain the power pitcher routine, and I see that as more difficult for him due to his mindset, and ways of doing things, then the average pitcher in his position.

    That's why I'm somewhat more trusting in Lackey, because he seems to be adapting more to that "limited stuff" and "foxy pitcher" mind set.

    I hope they are both great, but if I was a betting man I'd bet neither would get over a 135 ERA+ even once, and over a 112+ no more then 3 times each during the contract run. That means best case they are innings eating #3 SP's. If Lester and Buchholz play #1 and #2, then that's just fine.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Bingo, I've been talking about this for it seems like over a year. He needs to transition if he cannot maintain the power pitcher routine, and I see that as more difficult for him due to his mindset, and ways of doing things, then the average pitcher in his position.

    That's why I'm somewhat more trusting in Lackey, because he seems to be adapting more to that "limited stuff" and "foxy pitcher" mind set.

    I hope they are both great, but if I was a betting man I'd bet neither would get over a 135 ERA+ even once, and over a 112+ no more then 3 times each during the contract run. That means best case they are innings eating #3 SP's. If Lester and Buchholz play #1 and #2, then that's just fine.
    I'm hoping in Beckett's case, that his injuries played a bigger part in his loss in velocity, than just a downturn in his career. The conditioning aspect a few posters' have discussed may be a factor. I will bet anyone a chicken dinner, that you are almost dead on balls right in regards to his ERA+ not over 135. I think the 112 is attainable for him, but anything resembling the 75+ from last year, well ,the Sox may want to do some re-evaluting.

    I think Lackey will be ok. I thought he wasn't that bad after mid July or so. Call it first day jitters or what ever, but I think once he settled in,I felt he pitched to his capability. His WHIP was a little high at 1.42, but if he can get that back down around 1.25 or so, for a number 4 SP, I think he will be OK. If memory serves me, I think he was the recipient of a few of the bullpen's 8th inning meltdowns last year, which may have added possibly 2 maybe 3 wins to his total, which may have helped ease some of his critics.

    A WAR of around 3 for each of them is about what you might hope to expect if they are both pitching to potential?

  3. #93
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    I'm not sure where the talk about Beckett losing velocity is coming from. His average fastball velocity was 0.8 mph slower in 2010 his fastest average fastball velocity over the last four years and he was hurt/not in his normal conditioning routine much of the season. Perhaps it will be an issue down the line at the end of his contract, but it's not one right now.

  4. #94
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    Beckett's velocity when he came back was still pretty good, movement was too. Pitching is 90% mental.....he needs to locate and bear down during the first inning. He last yr anyway seemed to have that Wakefield inning where they score 3-4 runs off him then he became a mess.
    I'd have to go look through boring stats to know for sure, but my memory serves well most of the time.

    He needs to shore up his conditioning. End of story......he doesn't seem to grasp that detail. Maybe he learned last yr after sitting out so long. Again we won't know until the ST games start. Lester should open the season though. Beckett lost that right!

    The BP and offense for sure will take the heat off the SP's. But we need to beat good offensive teams with good pitching , not just offense. That doesn't work if they throw out two tough hombres.
    We will though score a ton of runs and scare teams into mistakes , lots of them. Screw the runs saved crap for stats class. I prefer a balance of defense, speed and offense. We seemed to have done that , also added some pop.

    Look for the SP's win totals to go up. I am hopeful though. Beckett took a bucket load of money ...I'm bettin that weighs on him some too.

    PS: Papelbon FB is straight the four seamer is like an arrow.
    Last edited by lil'papi; 12-31-2010 at 08:56 AM.

  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by lil'papi View Post
    He needs to shore up his conditioning. End of story......he doesn't seem to grasp that detail. Maybe he learned last yr after sitting out so long. Again we won't know until the ST games start. Lester should open the season though. Beckett lost that right!.

    I agree Lester should definitely get the season opener. He's earned it. As far as Beckett's conditioning goes, well, I'm nobody to talk, as I'm pretty much the same size as Beckett. I do believe though, he will be in top shape come ST, as he seems like a stand up guy, and with a big contract comes big expectations.

    If he can keep his WHIP around 1.20 or a tick below, as compared to his 1.54 from last year, and avoid that 1 meltdown inning as you had also stated,(he did seem to have one all too often last season, as he would be lights out for 4-5 innings, and then bam, the wheels would fall completely off in the next inning...maybe his career is taking the path where he is only going to be a six inning pitcher....) If he regain some of his lost mojo on his fastball, he should hopefully rebound nicely, and be a top notch #3 guy, behind Lester and Buchholz.....I may be placing Buchholz ahead of Beckett a little prematurely, but I think Buchholz earned that last year,so it's Beckett's to reclaim this year........

  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by taffi101 View Post
    I agree Lester should definitely get the season opener. He's earned it. As far as Beckett's conditioning goes, well, I'm nobody to talk, as I'm pretty much the same size as Beckett. I do believe though, he will be in top shape come ST, as he seems like a stand up guy, and with a big contract comes big expectations.
    Yeah, I think Lester's certainly earned the start based on his performance. According to the Red Sox they gave the nod to Beckett last year because he puts so much preparation into each start and he's a leader for the pitching staff so I'm not sure how accurate some of the depictions are of him being lazy. I bet he comes into spring in top shape as well.

  7. #97
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    Beckett has had decline from 2007-2010:

    HR%: 2.1, 2.5, 2.8, 3.5
    HR/FB: 6.7, 6.7, 8.7, 10.5

    SO%: 23.6, 23.7, 22.5, 20.1

    BB%: 4.9, 4.7, 6.2, 7.8

    wFB/C: 0.92, 1.05, 0.36, -1.23) (value of FB per 100 FB's vs league average) His fastball has gone from being his most valuable pitch (curve was #1 in '07, FB #2, but #1 in '08 and '09) to being his worst pitch in '10.

    RE24: 36.5, 21.2, 20.2, -17.3 (RE24: Base out runs saved)

    Beckett's HR% and HR from FB's have gotten worse at 4 in a row, and 3 in a row

    His SO% is on a 3 year decline, and his BB% are also on a 3 year decline.

    His problem could be the batters have him/Tek figured out better, but more likely is leaving meatballs over the center of the plate and in addition not commanding the strike zone (in terms of K's and BB's) as he did before.

    Take away 'Red Sox' and 'Josh Beckett' and consider this 4 years belonged to a pitchers age 27, 28, 29, and 30 season. Now '10 can be seen as an outlier, but '07 also has to be seen as an outlier unless he has another one. The more likely area he's going to be in in 2011 is '08 & '09, which should be fine. But staff ace? ASG? A sub 3.75 ERA? All possible, all unlikely.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 12-31-2010 at 12:37 PM.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  8. #98
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    Dec 2009
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    if beckett can stay in shape and come into camp healthy.. he'll have a damn good year.. i dont take last year seriously because he was hurt for 2 ****in months.. and 09 he was having a damn good year until a rough patch in august.. but im confident in beckett and lackey too.. they'll be our 3 and 4 and you cant get a lot better for a 3 and 4 in the game

  9. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Beckett has had decline from 2007-2010:

    HR%: 2.1, 2.5, 2.8, 3.5
    HR/FB: 6.7, 6.7, 8.7, 10.5

    SO%: 23.6, 23.7, 22.5, 20.1

    BB%: 4.9, 4.7, 6.2, 7.8

    wFB/C: 0.92, 1.05, 0.36, -1.23) (value of FB per 100 FB's vs league average) His fastball has gone from being his most valuable pitch (curve was #1 in '07, FB #2, but #1 in '08 and '09) to being his worst pitch in '10.

    RE24: 36.5, 21.2, 20.2, -17.3 (RE24: Base out runs saved)

    Beckett's HR% and HR from FB's have gotten worse at 4 in a row, and 3 in a row

    His SO% is on a 3 year decline, and his BB% are also on a 3 year decline.

    His problem could be the batters have him/Tek figured out better, but more likely is leaving meatballs over the center of the plate and in addition not commanding the strike zone (in terms of K's and BB's) as he did before.

    Take away 'Red Sox' and 'Josh Beckett' and consider this 4 years belonged to a pitchers age 27, 28, 29, and 30 season. Now '10 can be seen as an outlier, but '07 also has to be seen as an outlier unless he has another one. The more likely area he's going to be in in 2011 is '08 & '09, which should be fine. But staff ace? ASG? A sub 3.75 ERA? All possible, all unlikely.
    Great post. I agree.

    I strongly believe 2007 and 2010 are both outliers. If we're being optimistic we can project to have a 2009 like season, probably around a 3.95 ERA. If he were to do that I would be ecstatic as he would be a very good #3 or 4 starter for us and he should win around 15 games.

  10. #100
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    I agree that 2010 looks like an outlier.

    Beckett's stats that have seen a pattern of decline 2007-2009: HR/9, HR/FB, BB/9, WHIP, FIP
    Beckett's stats that haven't seen a pattern of decline 2007-2009: H/9, K/9, innings pitched GB%, xFIP, K/BB, ERA+, LD%, fastball win value per 100 thrown, curveball win value per 100 thrown, changeup win value per 100 thrown

    The majority of his stats have fluctuated up and down, with no real pattern. Of his stats that have gotten worse, his walk rates and home run rates are the most concerning. The most encouraging are his hit rates, his strikeout rates and his innings pitched per season.

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