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  1. #61
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    Dec 2010
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    I think lackey will have a good year
    14
    8
    High 3 low 4s
    Plus when we make it to the playoffs and this he gets hot he could be a huge peice to another ring...Lester as well can do the same. He's one of the top pitchers in the game..

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    This year we've upgraded 1B, 3B, and LF IMO. If Ellsbury is healthy, we'll have CF upgraded as well. Then downgrade catcher...
    I'd just like to clarify - do you mean Youkilis in '11 will be better than Beltre in '11? Or do you mean Youkilis in '11 will be better than Beltre in '10?

    As great as Youkilis is, I don't see him having a better season than Beltre did last year. That's not a knock on Youkilis, but more a compliment to how much Beltre contributed for us. Especially since Youkilis has hit worse at 3B for his career.

    My opinion on performance (including defense) from various positions compared to last year:
    LF: ++
    CF: +/=
    RF: = (I think Drew will have a bounceback year, but looking at this objectively it's hard to predict)
    3B: -
    SS: +
    2B: +
    1B: +
    C: --

    Lester: =
    Buchholz: -
    Lackey: +
    Beckett: ++
    Matsuzaka: +

    Bullpen: +++

    That's a lot of improvements.

  3. #63
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    Nov 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pittz View Post
    I'd just like to clarify - do you mean Youkilis in '11 will be better than Beltre in '11? Or do you mean Youkilis in '11 will be better than Beltre in '10?

    As great as Youkilis is, I don't see him having a better season than Beltre did last year. That's not a knock on Youkilis, but more a compliment to how much Beltre contributed for us. Especially since Youkilis has hit worse at 3B for his career.

    My opinion on performance (including defense) from various positions compared to last year:
    LF: ++
    CF: +/=
    RF: = (I think Drew will have a bounceback year, but looking at this objectively it's hard to predict)
    3B: -
    SS: +
    2B: +
    1B: +
    C: --

    Lester: =
    Buchholz: -
    Lackey: +
    Beckett: ++
    Matsuzaka: +

    Bullpen: +++

    That's a lot of improvements.
    Yes, I believe that Youk '11 is a better hitter then Beltre in '10 - mostly because of OBP. I also believe Youk is good enough at fielding meaning Beltre's defensive portion of WAR won't tower over Youk - in particular because he made so many errors in 2010 compared to his average, which gave him one of his lower UZR/150 numbers the past 5 seasons at 12.7. Youk got a +20.0 and a -4.9 those two years, and overall is 6.9. That's not as good of course, but its not bad, and fielding counts less then hitting in he WAR stats - even for catching and SS, so its even smaller for 3B.

    As far as Youk hitting at 3B, most of his PA's at 3B came when he was a young and less accomplished hitter. Since he broke out with the bat:

    In 2008 Youk at 3B: PA: 135 .328/.415/.595
    In 2009 Youk at 3B: PA: 246 .286/.378/.549

    In 2010 Beltr at 3B: PA: 621 .321/.365/.553

    Youk's two year average is better where it counts - in OBP and SLG. Part of the reason Youk's WAR was so good those two years in the bump he got for playing 3B over 1B. Consider that he'll hit in the heart of a very strong order unlike Beltre which can't hurt.

    If healthy Youk has an excellent chance of beating Beltre's '10, if not he should be close.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  4. #64
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    Aug 2009
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    214
    ERA is a crappy stat.

    Beckett's WHIP (1.14-1.19) 07-09 and WAR have been outstanding. '10 was a slip up, and the injuries are worrisome. But if he is healthy, I expect him to return to 07-09 form.

    Lackey is a bit more confusing. Did he struggle adjusting to the AL East? Or was the AL West merely inflating his statistical performance the whole time?

    His traditional WHIP (1.22) is outstanding given how late he can take his team in to games. Given he is our #4 starter, we don't need him to be dominant, but if he doesn't drastically improve from last year that 87mil will start to look like a serious waste.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by slimcharles View Post
    ERA is a crappy stat.
    OK, I'll play. Do you mean just ERA, or in all its forms such as ERA+, DERA, tRA, etc.?

    Beckett's WHIP (1.14-1.19) 07-09 and WAR have been outstanding. '10 was a slip up, and the injuries are worrisome. But if he is healthy, I expect him to return to 07-09 form.
    I don't see WHIP as being nearly as useful as the ERA family of stats. WHIP for instance might be real nice for a pitcher giving up a slash line of .240/.300/.550 - but it doesn't account for SLG and production hitting.

    Beckett's probelm in '08 and '09 is that for part of the season he was great - top 5-7 in the AL, and for the remainder of those years, he was outside the top - I'm not sure w/o looking - but perhaps outside the top 30 would be a good guess.

    Lackey is a bit more confusing. Did he struggle adjusting to the AL East? Or was the AL West merely inflating his statistical performance the whole time?
    I am continually amazed by the crap heaped upon Lackey for 2010, in particular when you look at his trends by month.

    ERA: 4.50, 5.17, 3.86, 3.67, 5.75, 3.46

    With a league average of 4.14, Lackey had

    2 very good months
    1 good month
    1 somewhat above average ERA month
    1 poor month
    1 awful month

    the fact that he clusterd the good ones towards the end is a very positive sign. In fact per FG WAR $ - Lackey nearly earned his salary due in no small part to his 215 IP and average ERA+ (99).

    Beckett OTOH was a flaming disaster:

    ERA per month 2010: 7.22 7.41 2.84 6.03 4.50

    Sadly for Beckett his only good ERA month he pitched 12 2/3 IP - the least of all his months pitching last year. His replacement - Wakefield for 12 starts - was awful, but he was better then Beckett.

    His traditional WHIP (1.22) is outstanding given how late he can take his team in to games. Given he is our #4 starter, we don't need him to be dominant, but if he doesn't drastically improve from last year that 87mil will start to look like a serious waste.
    In another thread it is being argued by some that he is our ace. I'm glad your feet are planted enough to see that as of right now, he's #4 here - only ahead of the bizarre Dice.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Yes, I believe that Youk '11 is a better hitter then Beltre in '10 - mostly because of OBP. I also believe Youk is good enough at fielding meaning Beltre's defensive portion of WAR won't tower over Youk - in particular because he made so many errors in 2010 compared to his average, which gave him one of his lower UZR/150 numbers the past 5 seasons at 12.7. Youk got a +20.0 and a -4.9 those two years, and overall is 6.9. That's not as good of course, but its not bad, and fielding counts less then hitting in he WAR stats - even for catching and SS, so its even smaller for 3B.

    As far as Youk hitting at 3B, most of his PA's at 3B came when he was a young and less accomplished hitter. Since he broke out with the bat:

    In 2008 Youk at 3B: PA: 135 .328/.415/.595
    In 2009 Youk at 3B: PA: 246 .286/.378/.549

    In 2010 Beltr at 3B: PA: 621 .321/.365/.553

    Youk's two year average is better where it counts - in OBP and SLG. Part of the reason Youk's WAR was so good those two years in the bump he got for playing 3B over 1B. Consider that he'll hit in the heart of a very strong order unlike Beltre which can't hurt.

    If healthy Youk has an excellent chance of beating Beltre's '10, if not he should be close.
    Interesting. Thanks for expanding on it.

  7. 12-23-2010, 01:04 PM
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  8. #67
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    Hard to give an answer due to injuries and there current status...I guess Beckett? Lackey isn't living up to his contract at all.

  9. 12-23-2010, 01:59 PM
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    Unneccessary/Quoting Deleted Posts

  10. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Algmuskrats View Post
    Hard to give an answer due to injuries and there current status...I guess Beckett? Lackey isn't living up to his contract at all.
    Lackey was expected to be a 115-120 ERA+ W/ 200+ IP, given that he had a 99 ERA+, and was well above that 3 of his last 4 months gives me optimism, and he didn't under perform that badly IMO.

    Lackey has also adjusted IMO much better to life after he lost his "A" fastball then Beckett has. He doesn't try and K everybody, and he places the ball in a way that it seldom can be smashed, although, it can be hit. That's adaptation 101.

    Beckett loves to K everybody, cannot and has never been able to throw the ball pinpoint, but merely to areas he can reach.

    Look at Tiant. He was a nasty flame thrower in the late 60's, blew out his arm, and came back as a control guy - able to throw about 8 pitches from 3 or 4 arm slots - each. I don't think Beckett can do that - nor could many - nor does Beckett need to. But he has to disguise what he is doing better now thru guile, change of speed, and location. A power pitcher that doesn't adapt is dead when his hammer goes under 93 MPH.

    According to FanGraphs, Beckett's speed on his fastball has only dropped from 94.7 to 93.5 in the last 5 years, I dunno seems like it was more then that earlier, or its more straight with worse location now.

    His use of his curve ball dropped from ~24% the past few years to 18% in 2010. Often a sign of wear and pain. His cutter jumped to 15% from the mid/low single digits. So that's the CB replacement on purpose or by need. I think he badly needs a second change, he throws his at 87-88 MPH close to his cut and not so far from his FB velocity. He should throw one with a different grip or the ball further back in his palm to slow it down to about 82 MPH, which will give more break on it - which would mimic his curve somewhat, but be of enough offset in speed and trajectory to be a whole new thing for hitters to worry about. He only needs 3-4 per 100 pitches thrown, and cut his current CH down to 7-8%.

    Deception of batters isn't just from speed, although that's the single best skill to have when you try and deceive batters. He's in the land of artist/old hand/master now. He needs to learn how to pitch and not to just throw. Beckett isn't Ryan, so that path is just a dead end.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  11. 12-23-2010, 03:27 PM
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    Unneccessary/Quoting Deleted Posts

  12. 12-23-2010, 03:49 PM
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    Unneccessary/Quoting Deleted Posts

  13. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by riveramk2 View Post
    i think beckett has a better chance of bouncing back vs lackey

    homer reasons: ive seen beckett do it here and in a more dominant fashion n i was never a fan of john lackey with the Angels...i respected him thought he was a good pitcher not great

    fact reasons: john lackey pitches more to contact compared to beckett whos more of a strike out pitcher....fenway is a hitters park and to pitch to contact in fenway is tough especially compared to the angels park and the wider ball parks he pitched in the AL West....
    Lackey pitches more to contact but with the effect of inducing many more ground balls, ground ball outs, and DPs than Beckett. He's been doing that his whole career. Beckett is beginning to "pitch" more and is starting to get some of those traits... but while he's learning he's also giving up many more HRs. With that in mind I'd take Lackey because he's been more of a pitcher than a thrower and has less to adjust as he ages.

    Quote Originally Posted by yankswin27 View Post
    Beckett is awful and Lackey can't pitch in the AL East. Just my two cents.
    Lackey had trouble with TOR and TBR in two starts against each but also dominated both in two starts last year. 2-1, 2.80 vs BAL and 1-1, 3.20 vs NYY. Overall not a terrible line in the AL East.

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsox19 View Post
    We can all agree on this... Beckett will be back to the 2007 Beckett this year. I feel he will rebound nicely. He still has front of the roation stuff all he needs to do is forget about 2010 and worry about 2011. When heathly and he's on a nice roll he is one of the top pitchers in the game. Beckett never got on a roll last year due to nagging injuries.
    Beckett in 2011,
    17-8
    3.60 era
    So he's going to post his second-best season ever in the AL? Hm..

  14. #70
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    Sep 2006
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    5,060
    Beckett's problems are physical, end game. He has poor posture , bad back, obliques made of margarine , he needs to GET IN SHAPE. As you age you MUST start that process earlier and earlier.
    As a professional BB player you would think going to API would be a prerequisite it's only one state over. He could probably go hunting and end up there. Beckett can still hump it up there 95plus ....but hitting spots besides -dead red- is his achilles heel. I believe its all in his physical problems and being able to drive into the ball.

    My new years resolution -if I were beckett- would be a 8 week course at API ....no margarine , no butter either.

    Geez, half his team is already there. Bring Lackey too....not like he couldn't use a little treatment.

  15. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by lil'papi View Post
    Beckett's problems are physical, end game. He has poor posture , bad back, obliques made of margarine , he needs to GET IN SHAPE. As you age you MUST start that process earlier and earlier.
    As a professional BB player you would think going to API would be a prerequisite it's only one state over. He could probably go hunting and end up there. Beckett can still hump it up there 95plus ....but hitting spots besides -dead red- is his achilles heel. I believe its all in his physical problems and being able to drive into the ball.

    My new years resolution -if I were beckett- would be a 8 week course at API ....no margarine , no butter either.

    Geez, half his team is already there. Bring Lackey too....not like he couldn't use a little treatment.
    Exactly this. In other words, Beckett wouldn't have nagging injuries if he wasn't so effing fat. Ever see his jersey fly up? His belly looks like my granddad's.

  16. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Lackey was expected to be a 115-120 ERA+ W/ 200+ IP, given that he had a 99 ERA+, and was well above that 3 of his last 4 months gives me optimism, and he didn't under perform that badly IMO.

    Lackey has also adjusted IMO much better to life after he lost his "A" fastball then Beckett has. He doesn't try and K everybody, and he places the ball in a way that it seldom can be smashed, although, it can be hit. That's adaptation 101.

    Beckett loves to K everybody, cannot and has never been able to throw the ball pinpoint, but merely to areas he can reach.

    Look at Tiant. He was a nasty flame thrower in the late 60's, blew out his arm, and came back as a control guy - able to throw about 8 pitches from 3 or 4 arm slots - each. I don't think Beckett can do that - nor could many - nor does Beckett need to. But he has to disguise what he is doing better now thru guile, change of speed, and location. A power pitcher that doesn't adapt is dead when his hammer goes under 93 MPH.

    According to FanGraphs, Beckett's speed on his fastball has only dropped from 94.7 to 93.5 in the last 5 years, I dunno seems like it was more then that earlier, or its more straight with worse location now.

    His use of his curve ball dropped from ~24% the past few years to 18% in 2010. Often a sign of wear and pain. His cutter jumped to 15% from the mid/low single digits. So that's the CB replacement on purpose or by need. I think he badly needs a second change, he throws his at 87-88 MPH close to his cut and not so far from his FB velocity. He should throw one with a different grip or the ball further back in his palm to slow it down to about 82 MPH, which will give more break on it - which would mimic his curve somewhat, but be of enough offset in speed and trajectory to be a whole new thing for hitters to worry about. He only needs 3-4 per 100 pitches thrown, and cut his current CH down to 7-8%.

    Deception of batters isn't just from speed, although that's the single best skill to have when you try and deceive batters. He's in the land of artist/old hand/master now. He needs to learn how to pitch and not to just throw. Beckett isn't Ryan, so that path is just a dead end.
    All good points. His fastball at 93-94 now and straight as a string is bound to end up in the stands 30 times a year. I like your breakdown of his offspeed pitches, didn't he used to throw more of a circle change? I seem to remember that, maybe I'm wrong...

  17. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Lackey was expected to be a 115-120 ERA+ W/ 200+ IP, given that he had a 99 ERA+, and was well above that 3 of his last 4 months gives me optimism, and he didn't under perform that badly IMO.

    Lackey has also adjusted IMO much better to life after he lost his "A" fastball then Beckett has. He doesn't try and K everybody, and he places the ball in a way that it seldom can be smashed, although, it can be hit. That's adaptation 101.

    Beckett loves to K everybody, cannot and has never been able to throw the ball pinpoint, but merely to areas he can reach.

    Look at Tiant. He was a nasty flame thrower in the late 60's, blew out his arm, and came back as a control guy - able to throw about 8 pitches from 3 or 4 arm slots - each. I don't think Beckett can do that - nor could many - nor does Beckett need to. But he has to disguise what he is doing better now thru guile, change of speed, and location. A power pitcher that doesn't adapt is dead when his hammer goes under 93 MPH.

    According to FanGraphs, Beckett's speed on his fastball has only dropped from 94.7 to 93.5 in the last 5 years, I dunno seems like it was more then that earlier, or its more straight with worse location now.

    His use of his curve ball dropped from ~24% the past few years to 18% in 2010. Often a sign of wear and pain. His cutter jumped to 15% from the mid/low single digits. So that's the CB replacement on purpose or by need. I think he badly needs a second change, he throws his at 87-88 MPH close to his cut and not so far from his FB velocity. He should throw one with a different grip or the ball further back in his palm to slow it down to about 82 MPH, which will give more break on it - which would mimic his curve somewhat, but be of enough offset in speed and trajectory to be a whole new thing for hitters to worry about. He only needs 3-4 per 100 pitches thrown, and cut his current CH down to 7-8%.

    Deception of batters isn't just from speed, although that's the single best skill to have when you try and deceive batters. He's in the land of artist/old hand/master now. He needs to learn how to pitch and not to just throw. Beckett isn't Ryan, so that path is just a dead end.
    You keep saying that without really an substance. Beckett's walk rates were very goof in 07 and 08 (Both lower bb/9 then any of Lackey's seasons), and good in 09.

    Career wise Lackey barely has better walk rates
    Jackie Bradley Junior.... that is all

  18. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    You keep saying that without really an substance. Beckett's walk rates were very goof in 07 and 08 (Both lower bb/9 then any of Lackey's seasons), and good in 09.

    Career wise Lackey barely has better walk rates
    In 07 and 08 though he used his curve ball alot more, and he used it well. His wFB rates in 07 and 08 were also outstanding at +17-+18, but he also had more life on his fastball. As his velocity dipped, so has his success...

  19. #75
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    his success took a dip this year only, something that people refuse to accept.

    And in 2010 he was injured/Plus bad luck/ plus never really getting on track

    His BABIP was high, his LD, GB, and FB% all remained stable

    The man is 30, the only knock on him is his conditioning, needs to fix that or we will have a problem
    Jackie Bradley Junior.... that is all

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