Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Page 4 of 7 FirstFirst ... 23456 ... LastLast
Results 46 to 60 of 100
  1. #46
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    44,353
    Quote Originally Posted by Soxfan View Post
    I said clearly "But to say his reputation rests on beating the Yankees and 2007 LIKE IT IS NOTHING is ignorant." I said that because you glanced over it, barely recognizing it, I did not say your post was ignorant because I agree Lester is the better pitcher and should start opening day. I did not once say Josh Beckett should start opening day, nor did I state Beckett is a better pitcher then Lester. Like I said in my previous post our disagreement is that I believe Beckett can regain past greatness and you clearly do not.
    The moral here is not to use the word ignorant, then you won't have to back track like someone with greased feet on an icy incline.

    To bring up David Ortiz is just laughable, a 35 year old out of shape DH past his prime, compared to a 30 year old pitcher with good stuff, who has the potential to have some strong seasons ahead, can you be serious?
    You left out the important part, didn't you? You want to crown Beckett and crow about his great post seasons in 2003 (not even for the Sox) and 2007. That's basically akin to judging Ortiz by what he did in 2004 and 2007 - not in a historical sense, but in the sense of where he belongs in the 2011 line-up. He hit better then any Sox players on the 2011 roster in those two years did he not? Seemingly you missed the total absurdity of that concept in your rush to try and criticize me, entertaining to watch that one go right over your head....

    Bunning had some great years after age 30 and his career before 30 was also great, the reason why his is a HOFer.
    Bunning had more good years after age 30, and he's the 10th closest comp BTW, and also a very low tier HoF'er, I wouldn't try to read too much into that comparison.

    Beckett after age 30 year: IP: 1528 ERA: 3.96 ERA+ 112
    Bunning after age 30 year: IP: 1619 ERA: 3.38 ERA+ 118

    after age 35 Bunning was: IP: 3059 ERA: 3.07 ERA+ 124

    if Beckett pitches 1500 IP, and drops his career ERA to 3.75, and his ERA+ to 118 or better, it would be like a person from 1953 being woken up in the 1980's and finding out Reagan was President. Possible but massively unlikely.

    Also you can not compare wins and losses, Beckett through his first 607 innings pitching for the Marlins was 39-34 with a 3.47 ERA most likely should have a few more wins if his team could hit. Lester is 61-25 with a 3.55 career ERA in his first 766 innings with one of the most potent lineups in the league behind him. Again, I will reiterate I do not see Beckett as the better pitcher at this point but to bring up wins and losses is shall I say....ignorant?
    OK. I don't really like wins and losses anyhow. Explain his 112 career ERA+ as that of a great pitcher to date or as a HoF wannabe.

    These posts have become off topic, and I can see you will not believe Beckett can have anymore good seasons, and I believe he can and will. Chris Carpenter is a great example of someone who overcame injuries to pitch great past 30, would you believe Carpenter never posted an ERA below 4 until after he turned 30? My post was not to make you mad, I just think you undervalue Beckett and what he is capable of, I am not here to insult your baseball knowledge, I can tell you know your stuff. That was a compliment, not a recant of my posts.
    I believe Beckett can have more good seasons - but compared to league average ERA, or compared to his contract? In the case of the first level - he's got 2-4 of those in him, in the case of the second 0-2. If Lester has two more years like 2008-2010 he will have more very good/great seasons then Beckett will likely ever see.

    Carpenter is also in the hands of the best pitching coach of all time.

    At this point, I will defer to RedSoxtober's post, a model of clarity if there ever was one - #40.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 12-22-2010 at 03:58 PM.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  2. #47
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    44,353
    Quote Originally Posted by Redsox19 View Post
    We can all agree on this... Beckett will be back to the 2007 Beckett this year. I feel he will rebound nicely. He still has front of the roation stuff all he needs to do is forget about 2010 and worry about 2011. When heathly and he's on a nice roll he is one of the top pitchers in the game. Beckett never got on a roll last year due to nagging injuries.
    Beckett in 2011,
    17-8
    3.60 era
    If Beckett goes back to 2007 form in 2011, then we'll win 108+ games. I do not agree we are looking at 2007 in 2011. I think 2008 or 2009 is quite possible. With this line-up he could toss 210 IP, with a 4.10 ERA and win 21 games - but that is nothing like what he did in 2007. A 3.27 ERA on this team is 24-4 sort of season if the pen doesn't blow too many of his wins.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  3. #48
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    44,353
    Beckett's suitability as an ace going forward from the injury standpoint:

    July 23, 2010 Missed 56 games (back injury).
    July 16, 2010 Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (back injury).
    May 19, 2010 Back injury, 15-day DL.
    May 18, 2010 Missed 9 games (back injury).
    May 11, 2010 Back injury, day-to-day.
    October 3, 2009 Missed 5 games (back injury).
    September 28, 2009 Back injury, day-to-day.
    April 25, 2009 Missed 5 games (suspension).
    April 14, 2009 Suspened by MLB for 6 games.
    September 5, 2008 Missed 15 games (right elbow injury).
    August 20, 2008 Right elbow injury, day-to-day.
    April 27, 2008 Missed 5 games (neck injury).
    April 22, 2008 Neck injury, day-to-day.
    April 6, 2008 Missed 6 games (back spasms).
    March 24, 2008 Back spasms, 15-day DL.
    May 29, 2007 Missed 14 games (finger injury).
    May 17, 2007 Finger injury, 15-day DL.
    May 14, 2007 Finger injury, day-to-day.
    October 2, 2005 Missed 8 games to the end of the regular season (shoulder injury).
    September 28, 2005 Shoulder injury, day-to-day.
    July 23, 2005 Missed 13 games (oblique injury).
    July 8, 2005 Oblique injury, 15-day DL.
    July 5, 2005 Oblique injury, day-to-day.
    June 30, 2005 Missed 13 games (blister).
    June 17, 2005 Blister, 15-day DL (retroactive to Jun 15).
    June 15, 2005 Blister, day-to-day.
    July 30, 2004 Missed 19 games (right finger injury).
    July 6, 2004 Right finger injury, 15-day DL.
    July 5, 2004 Missed 16 games (left side).
    June 25, 2004 Left side, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 18).
    June 17, 2004 Missed 15 games (blister).
    May 30, 2004 Blister, 15-day DL.
    July 1, 2003 Missed 49 games (elbow injury).
    May 9, 2003 Elbow injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to May 8th).
    May 8, 2003 Elbow injury, day-to-day.
    September 11, 2002 Missed 17 games (blister).
    August 23, 2002 Blister, 15-day DL.
    July 16, 2002 Missed 33 games (finger injury).
    June 6, 2002 Finger injury, 15-day DL.
    May 14, 2002 Missed 13 games (blister).
    May 1, 2002 Blister,15-day DL (retroactive to April 29th).
    September 30, 2001 Missed 9 games (finger injury).
    September 24, 2001 Finger injury, day-to-day.

    Jon Lester:

    June 11, 2007 Missed 62 games (lymphoma) and optioned to Pawtucket (AAA).
    March 28, 2007 Lymphoma, 15-day DL (retroactive to March 23rd).
    October 2, 2006 Missed the last 36 games of the regular season (back strain).
    September 2, 2006 Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (back strain).
    August 28, 2006 Back strain, 15-day DL (retroactive to August 24th).

    Lester has 1/2 the innings of Beckett and about 1/9 of the injury/healthy episodes..... and Lester has nothing the last 3 years, and the only year Beckett missed putting up an entry was in 2006.

    stats from sbnation.com
    Last edited by bagwell368; 12-22-2010 at 04:18 PM.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  4. #49
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    122
    Hahahaha if beckett goes back to the 07 form in 2011 we will win 108+ games....how can u even say that? its a long season.

  5. #50
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    122
    Beckett is 30 years old and can still put up some very nice numbers. Some of u guys act like he's 38 with a shot elbow...if Beckett wins 20 games(not saying it's gunna happen) I won't be shocked cuz the dude still has top of the line stuff

  6. #51
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    16,915
    When a team finds their guy, it’s usually pretty easy to spot. You can see it when a team chooses one player, perhaps multiple times, over comparable alternatives. In the winter following the 2005 season, it looked pretty clear that Josh Beckett was the Red Sox’ guy. They traded Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez, their Nos. 1 and 5 preseason prospects, for a pitcher who, through the first four years of his career, had spent 222 days on the disabled list. Teams don’t do that for ordinary players. The Sox clearly saw something in Beckett that they couldn’t find in another pitcher obtainable for the price of Ramirez and Sanchez — which probably would have been plenty.

    That trade appeared to backfire on the Red Sox from the start. Beckett had plenty of problems in his transition to the AL, the long ball not least among them. His strikeout rate dipped, his walk rate rose, and, despite a career-low .270 BABIP he still allowed more hits per nine than he had since 2003. All the while, 1,500 miles to the south, Ramirez stepped into the Marlins starting lineup and immediately started fulfilling his potential. While his defense was shaky he still produced a .364 wOBA and 4.1 WAR, good enough to earn him NL Rookie of the Year honors. With Boston missing the playoffs for the first time since 2002, it was easy to second guess the trade. But Boston remained confident in Beckett’s ability to rebound.

    They were so confident of Beckett’s abilities, in fact, that during his beleaguered 2006 campaign they signed him to a three-year, $30 million extension with a $12 million club option for 2010. The announcement came at an odd time in that it happened during a postgame press conference with manager Terry Francona, but it also came at an opportune time in that Beckett had just completed eight shutout innings against the Royals. Prior to that he had a 5.12 ERA and 5.57 FIP — which means, of course, that the Sox signed him when he was at his lowest. Even after that start against KC he didn’t fare well, a 5.36 ERA and 4.41 FIP the rest of the way.

    In 2007, of course, the league finally realized the full potential of Josh Beckett. The National League had its fits with him from 2002 through 2005, but never had they experienced a full 30 starts of Beckett dominance. That’s what he unleashed on the American League in 2007. In those 30 starts he struck out 8.7 per nine while walking just 1.8. He also halved his home run rate, which was probably the single biggest difference between his first two seasons in Boston. The result was a 3.27 ERA and 3.08 FIP through 200.2 innings, good enough for second in the AL Cy Young voting. Much to Boston fans’ collective delight, he then led the team to its second World Series in four years with 30 brilliant innings.

    While Beckett hasn’t repeated his 2007 greatness, he has still been Boston’s ace ever since. Some bad luck on balls in play, plus some time off in September due to injury, hurt his 2008 a bit; his 3.24 FIP and xFIP looked a lot better than his 4.03 ERA. In 2009 he reached a career high 212.1 innings, though his strikeout walk, and home run rates all trended in the wrong direction, though it wasn’t an overly significant change.

    Still, it didn’t seem like the Red Sox were very concerned. They had so much faith in Beckett that they signed him to a four-year, $68 million extension in early April. The contract calls for a $15.75 million salary from 2011 through 2014, which is half a million more each year than John Lackey will earn in that span. It might seem, then, like Beckett has some type of contract aversion. He tripped and stumbled after signing his first long-term deal with the Red Sox and pulled a similar act the second time. But the relapse was quite a bit worse. In his first eight starts Beckett pitched just 45.2 innings and allowed a 7.29 ERA, which included uncharacteristically high hit and walk rates. His FIP, 4.31, looked a bit better, but it was clear when watching him that a lack of command played a large role in his high hit and walk rates. After he allowed five runs in 4.2 innings against the Yankees on May 18, he hit the DL with back issues, not to return for two months.

    Sox fans might have winced upon Beckett’s return. He did put together a few good starts right after the comeback, just five runs during his 20.2 innings against the Mariners, Angels, and Indians. But those are three below-average offenses. In his next two starts, against New York and Texas, he allowed 13 runs in 9.2 IP, and then let up six against the Angels in 6.1 IP. It looked like another downhill slide for Beckett. Again, as was the case after the first time the Red Sox signed him to a long-term deal, it was easy to second guess this move.

    Lately, Beckett has turned things around a bit. He’s not his dominant self from a few years ago, but that can’t really be expected at this point in the season. But even without top-notch stuff he’s still managed to strike out 28 in his last 25.2 innings, walking just nine in that span. Five of those walks came in yesterday’s six-inning, three-run performance against Oakland. His hit and walk rates, plus his BABIP, are all still above his career averages, signaling a continued lack of command. But he certainly looks better on the mound than he did earlier in the season. It’s an encouraging sign for 2011.

    Josh Beckett is always going to spend some time on the shelf. He has, in fact, spent time on the DL, 115 days, in every season with the Sox except 2006 and 2009. But the Sox have done a good job of limiting that time, and have for the most part kept Beckett a healthy and effective pitcher. He hit a road block in 2010, but that’s one that can be overcome with a winter’s rest. Given the way he bounced back last time he experienced a poor season, I expect that 2011 will be yet another quality one for Beckett and the Sox.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...r-sox-in-2011/

  7. #52
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    156
    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    The moral here is not to use the word ignorant, then you won't have to back track like someone with greased feet on an icy incline.



    You left out the important part, didn't you? You want to crown Beckett and crow about his great post seasons in 2003 (not even for the Sox) and 2007. That's basically akin to judging Ortiz by what he did in 2004 and 2007 - not in a historical sense, but in the sense of where he belongs in the 2011 line-up. He hit better then any Sox players on the 2011 roster in those two years did he not? Seemingly you missed the total absurdity of that concept in your rush to try and criticize me, entertaining to watch that one go right over your head....



    Bunning had more good years after age 30, and he's the 10th closest comp BTW, and also a very low tier HoF'er, I wouldn't try to read too much into that comparison.

    Beckett after age 30 year: IP: 1528 ERA: 3.96 ERA+ 112
    Bunning after age 30 year: IP: 1619 ERA: 3.38 ERA+ 118

    after age 35 Bunning was: IP: 3059 ERA: 3.07 ERA+ 124

    if Beckett pitches 1500 IP, and drops his career ERA to 3.75, and his ERA+ to 118 or better, it would be like a person from 1953 being woken up in the 1980's and finding out Reagan was President. Possible but massively unlikely.



    OK. I don't really like wins and losses anyhow. Explain his 112 career ERA+ as that of a great pitcher to date or as a HoF wannabe.



    I believe Beckett can have more good seasons - but compared to league average ERA, or compared to his contract? In the case of the first level - he's got 2-4 of those in him, in the case of the second 0-2. If Lester has two more years like 2008-2010 he will have more very good/great seasons then Beckett will likely ever see.

    Carpenter is also in the hands of the best pitching coach of all time.

    At this point, I will defer to RedSoxtober's post, a model of clarity if there ever was one - #40.
    I did not backtrack one bit, read all of my posts, I have been saying the same exact things. Find one post where I took back anything I have said. I called one of your sentences ignorant, and you took it as a family insult, get over yourself.

    I did not leave out any important part. Beckett is a 30 year old pitcher, Ortiz is a 35 year old DH. If you had to pick one of them to regain their form from those seasons who would you pick? I sure as hell would pick Beckett for the age factor alone. You seem to have an expanded vocabulary, but cant read simple sentences. These posts should not be that hard for you to grasp. If I was chosing an opening day starter based on those years alone I would no doubt pick Beckett, but I did not state that.

    Never said Beckett was on his way to the Hall. I took Bunnings name from a list that you, personally, first chose names from. All the names you picked were exact matches, but I pick a couple more names from the list and they are in completely wrong, and you go into full out analyzing mode. I didn't make the list or mention it, you brought it up. How do you call someone in the HOF a low tier HOFer, if you make it you are a phenominal baseball player. A couple posts ago you bring up W-L and now "I don't like" them anymore, talk about back tracking.

    So basically you are saying if Beckett had a great pitching coach it would suddenly turn his numbers upside down, just as Carpenter's did? I fail to see any logic behind your keyboard.
    Last edited by Soxfan; 12-22-2010 at 04:48 PM.

  8. #53
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Portland, Maine
    Posts
    3,481
    I think they both will do better than last year. But I think that Beckett over-all should be much better

  9. #54
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Portland, Maine
    Posts
    3,481
    thats a great read

  10. #55
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    44,353
    Quote Originally Posted by Redsox19 View Post
    Hahahaha if beckett goes back to the 07 form in 2011 we will win 108+ games....how can u even say that? its a long season.
    How can I say that? Well, last year with a normal injury situation and the same performances, I have us figured at 97-98 wins - and that's w/o the mid season move in the pen we would have had if we were actually "in it".

    This year we've upgraded 1B, 3B, and LF IMO. If Ellsbury is healthy, we'll have CF upgraded as well. Then downgrade catcher... Beckett was far and away our worst pitcher last year. I did a large study at/near the end of the 2010 season that showed Beckett was about 5 losses worse (per Pythagorean) then he would have been in 2008-2009. 2007 was even better, so you are saying he could be that pitcher in 2011, that then would be about an 7.5-8 game swing in the standings. 97 + 8 = 105. The addition at those 4 positions (-1) should be seen as a net gain of 3 games at the most conservative - yielding 108.

    Of course I have no faith that Beckett will pull another 2007, so forget 108 wins. Plus so far we still have Wakefield... so call it 99.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  11. #56
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    44,353
    Quote Originally Posted by Soxfan View Post
    I did not backtrack one bit, read all of my posts, I have been saying the same exact things. Find one post where I took back anything I have said. I called one of your sentences ignorant, and you took it as a family insult, get over yourself.
    Sorry I didn't mean backtrack - I mean try and bridge the gap between your obvious and long term issues with me, and your politically incorrect usage of the term "ignorant". Meaning you wouldn't have to explain, fancy step, or label it what you will, keep this stupid thread going because you were intemperate. Isn't that what I'm often accused of? You also got hot instantly with howI termed Beckett's playoff performances in a way that you thought disrespectful. Then you claim that a 3 year period of comparing Beckett to Lester when Lester has no real career before 2008 somehow is some plot by me to discredit Beckett?

    As for wins and losses, many of the less serious fans here use it, not seeing you very often I forgot how amazing your intellect is. Have you addressed the fact that a 112 ERA+ is not that of an ace? In particular for a high budget team?

    How about stick to the point of the thread when I entered it. Beckett vs Lester for opening day pitcher. Lester blows Beckett out of the water the past 3 years. So explain to yourself (please not here) why what he did in 2003 for another team has even an iota of meaning in dealing with this one limited question.

    I did not leave out any important part. Beckett is a 30 year old pitcher, Ortiz is a 35 year old DH.
    LOL. It isn't about who they are now. It's that you actually think who starts on opening day and where they bat in line-up should have ANY thing to do with 2003 and 2007 and 2004. So to close to circle finally for you. For you to go on endlessly about 2003 and 2007 for Beckett is as useful as someone talking about what Ortiz did in 2004 and 2007. It isn't, not one damn bit. Get it now?

    Never said Beckett was on his way to the Hall
    OK, he isn't - we agree.

    So basically you are saying if Beckett had a great pitching coach it would suddenly turn his numbers upside down, just as Carpenter's did? I fail to see any logic behind your keyboard.
    Carpenter is healthy, Beckett is not. Can't compare them that much, Carpenter is in an easier park and league to pitch in as well. Carpenter isn't going to the HoF either.

    There are a lot of low tier HOF'ers. Don't you study MLB history? Jim Rice, Maz, Rizzuto... just a sampling of the low tier HOF'ers. Besides it's off the point. The point is Bunning was very strong from 30-35, which should likely take Beckett right off his list.

    All I see is a guy that posts 40 times a year here over a 3-4 year period that argues with me on Lowell, Beckett, and other guys. You blew the argument out of bounds, and I followed. So it is OK for you, but not for me? I know then when RedSoxtober and I are fairly close on issues, the other guy is OTL.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 12-22-2010 at 07:58 PM.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  12. #57
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    44,353
    Quote Originally Posted by Redsox19 View Post
    Beckett is 30 years old and can still put up some very nice numbers. Some of u guys act like he's 38 with a shot elbow...if Beckett wins 20 games(not saying it's gunna happen) I won't be shocked cuz the dude still has top of the line stuff
    If he wins 20 games in 2011, it could be more due to the 950+ run offense we will have then his efforts. And BTW, wins are a team stat, not individual stat.

    The only stat connected with winning that matters is a career long comparison of a pitchers winning % vs his team. In the post 1988 era that number is somewhat false due to the earlier use of relievers in games.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 12-22-2010 at 09:45 PM.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  13. #58
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    1,371
    Quote Originally Posted by Redsox19 View Post
    Beckett is 30 years old and can still put up some very nice numbers. Some of u guys act like he's 38 with a shot elbow...if Beckett wins 20 games(not saying it's gunna happen) I won't be shocked cuz the dude still has top of the line stuff
    I don't really believe anyone is saying Beckett has a shot elbow, moreover people are more or less in agreement that, in regards to the original post of Beckett Vs. Lester for opening day, he plain and simply just doesn't deserve the nod over Lester.
    Beckett has been a model of inconsistency over pretty much his entire tenure with Boston. Where as,on the other hand, Lester has continued to grow and develop into one the best pitchers in all of baseball.
    Beckett I believe has "good" stuff, but I think it a stretch to say top notch stuff. He has lost a few miles an hour off his fastball, where back in 2006- 2008 he was working around what seemed like 95-96 consistently, and over the past 2 years, I would say he is more likely to be around 92- 93 or so, but I don't have those #'s to confirm that.
    He is still a very "good" # 2,3 or 4 guy,and hopefully does win 20, but I don't believe he is in any way shape or form, the ace of this staff.

  14. #59
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    122
    All u guys got great points... Go red sox and **** the Yankees!!!!

  15. #60
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    MASS
    Posts
    55,374
    i think beckett has a better chance of bouncing back vs lackey

    homer reasons: ive seen beckett do it here and in a more dominant fashion n i was never a fan of john lackey with the Angels...i respected him thought he was a good pitcher not great

    fact reasons: john lackey pitches more to contact compared to beckett whos more of a strike out pitcher....fenway is a hitters park and to pitch to contact in fenway is tough especially compared to the angels park and the wider ball parks he pitched in the AL West....


    First Sim League Title!

Page 4 of 7 FirstFirst ... 23456 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •