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  1. #31
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    I prefer Josh Beckett
    With the deepest of regrets I am announcing that I will be leaving Pro Sports Daily. No reason in particular but wanted to thank everyone for a great 6 years here. Lots of great discussion and good poll series as well. Also fun re-drafts. Best of luck to you all in the future.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by todu82 View Post
    I prefer Josh Beckett
    Why is that? Giving the opening day nod to Beckett is extremely irrational and unloyal. Lester pitched better than Beckett two years in a row now, he's earned it.

    Bobby V is all in!

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedSox>Yankees View Post
    Why is that? Giving the opening day nod to Beckett is extremely irrational and unloyal. Lester pitched better than Beckett two years in a row now, he's earned it.
    Not only does Lester deserve it, let's look at by how much:

    In 2008-2010:

    Lester

    Average year:

    IP: 207.1
    ERA: 3.29

    Playoffs total:

    IP: 32.2
    ERA: 2.80

    Beckett:

    Average year:

    IP: 171.1
    ERA: 4.39

    Playoffs total:

    IP: 21
    ERA: 7.71


    Not only has Lester dominated Beckett in the last 3 years, but if you go to Beckett's best 3 year run in his career: 2007-09 - Lesters 3 years above is better. Basically Beckett has two playoff runs which his reputation rests on: beating the Yanks as a kid pitching for Florida and 2007. After that you have frequent (very) trips to the DL, stretches of dominance pock marked with stretches of downright ugliness. If he's an ace, then Lester is a slam dunk HoF.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Not only does Lester deserve it, let's look at by how much:

    In 2008-2010:

    Lester

    Average year:

    IP: 207.1
    ERA: 3.29

    Playoffs total:

    IP: 32.2
    ERA: 2.80

    Beckett:

    Average year:

    IP: 171.1
    ERA: 4.39

    Playoffs total:

    IP: 21
    ERA: 7.71


    Not only has Lester dominated Beckett in the last 3 years, but if you go to Beckett's best 3 year run in his career: 2007-09 - Lesters 3 years above is better. Basically Beckett has two playoff runs which his reputation rests on: beating the Yanks as a kid pitching for Florida and 2007. After that you have frequent (very) trips to the DL, stretches of dominance pock marked with stretches of downright ugliness. If he's an ace, then Lester is a slam dunk HoF.
    First off, I will say I agree Lester is the ace, and has performed much better then Beckett in recent years. But you totally discount Beckett's playoff performaces like they are nothing. In his first 72.2 innings pitched in the playoffs Beckett posted a 1.73 ERA. In his last 21 innings pitched, yes, he has posted an ugly 7.71 ERA. But to say his reputation rests on beating the Yankees and 2007 like it is nothing is ignorant. He had a major hand in winning two WS Championships while posting an ERA under 2 in over 70 innings. The guy was an absolute horse, and at age 30 it is not out of the realm for him to pitch well ever again. Like I said I agree with you, but you use the stats to make Beckett look like an absolute donkey, which he has been recently, but in reality he can and I believe will be a very good pitcher in years to come. BTW Lester has a 2.57 career ERA in the postseason in 42 innings, Becketts career ERA in the playoffs may be worse now, but his complete postseason resume is obviously better.

  5. #35
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    Soxfan^^^ I believe Bags was comparing their playoff performances since Beckett and Lester have been teamates. Obviously Beckett has playoff experience before Lester got to the majors. But Lester gets the opening day start, he's a top 8 pitcher in all of baseball and can give Cliff Lee a battle as the top lefty in the game. That being said i think the Sox bump Beckett ahead of Buchholz to start the 2nd game of the season. I feel the Sox will name Beckett as their #2 starter to reenforce their faith in him.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Soxfan View Post
    First off, I will say I agree Lester is the ace, and has performed much better then Beckett in recent years. But you totally discount Beckett's playoff performaces like they are nothing. In his first 72.2 innings pitched in the playoffs Beckett posted a 1.73 ERA. In his last 21 innings pitched, yes, he has posted an ugly 7.71 ERA. But to say his reputation rests on beating the Yankees and 2007 like it is nothing is ignorant. He had a major hand in winning two WS Championships while posting an ERA under 2 in over 70 innings. The guy was an absolute horse, and at age 30 it is not out of the realm for him to pitch well ever again. Like I said I agree with you, but you use the stats to make Beckett look like an absolute donkey, which he has been recently, but in reality he can and I believe will be a very good pitcher in years to come. BTW Lester has a 2.57 career ERA in the postseason in 42 innings, Becketts career ERA in the playoffs may be worse now, but his complete postseason resume is obviously better.
    I didn't discount them - at all. I said "Basically Beckett has two playoff runs which his reputation rests on". In fact if you take away 2003 and 2007 the rest of his playoff career is crap. Now I well understand he was hurt in 2008, but in 2009, he still didn't do all that well with a 5.40 ERA, did he? Half of your post is about his playoffs, so how is my comment any different from yours here? I should have slathered some subjective worshipful terms around his playoffs? Would that make it more kind and considerate for you?

    How is it "ignorant" to talk of his playoffs as the key to his reputation? His first 5 years, he never pitched over 179 innings once, was on the DL constantly. In 2003 he was an "ace" in a 142 innings + post season, his other years there were not as good. In fact if you toss out the good 2005, he was average when he wasn't on the DL.

    In Boston:

    2006 - below league average - #4 SP type year
    2007 - great year - a #1A ace
    2008 - excellent at times, meh at times, ended with a #2A SP sort of year
    2009 - excellent at times, meh at times, was a #1B sort of pitcher
    2010 - a near disaster all round - at best a #5, more like replacement value

    So in his Boston career, he's averaged about a #2.5 SP level, w/o the very great 2007 season + post season not one person here would defend that trade or the player for one second. "Ignorant"? Hahaha.

    Now go ahead and tell me what his playoffs records that came before 2008 have to do with his being named the opening day starter this year???

    This isn't a career match up or comparison as I understand the thread. I believe - which I posted facts to refute - that people here are living in the past re: Beckett's current abilities. As the longest running fan of the Sox here, and someone who wanted his extension signed, I would like nothing better then a complete repeat of 2007 by him and the team. But that doesn't blind me to the clear fact that that Josh Beckett is an artifact of the past, and he isn't walking through that door this year, or any year in the future - IMO.

    Beckett is a donkey? Well, all I wanted to prove is that Beckett doesn't deserve the opening day start. But since you bring it up, he'll be 31 in May, has managed 112 wins on 1528 IP with a very non ace like ERA+ of 112. I don't see him getting to 200 wins, or 3k IP. His closest age comps are: Millwood, Lackey, Freddy Garcia, Jack McDowell, Colon, Hentgen, Penny, Alex Fernandez. He is what he is.....
    Last edited by bagwell368; 12-22-2010 at 11:21 AM.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    I didn't discount them - at all. I said "Basically Beckett has two playoff runs which his reputation rests on". In fact if you take away 2003 and 2007 the rest of his playoff career is crap. Now I well understand he was hurt in 2008, but in 2009, he still didn't do all that well with a 5.40 ERA, did he? Half of your post is about his playoffs, so how is my comment any different from yours here? I should have slathered some subjective worshipful terms around his playoffs? Would that make it more kind and considerate for you?

    How is it "ignorant" to talk of his playoffs as the key to his reputation? His first 5 years, he never pitched over 179 innings once, was on the DL constantly. In 2003 he was an "ace" in a 142 innings + post season, his other years there were not as good. In fact if you toss out the good 2005, he was average when he wasn't on the DL.

    In Boston:

    2006 - below league average - #4 SP type year
    2007 - great year - a #1A ace
    2008 - excellent at times, meh at times, ended with a #2A SP sort of year
    2009 - excellent at times, meh at times, was a #1B sort of pitcher
    2010 - a near disaster all round - at best a #5, more like replacement value

    So in his Boston career, he's averaged about a #2.5 SP level, w/o the very great 2007 season + post season not one person here would defend that trade or the player for one second. "Ignorant"? Hahaha.

    Now go ahead and tell me what his playoffs records that came before 2008 have to do with his being named the opening day starter this year???

    This isn't a career match up or comparison as I understand the thread. I believe - which I posted facts to refute - that people here are living in the past re: Beckett's current abilities. As the longest running fan of the Sox here, and someone who wanted his extension signed, I would like nothing better then a complete repeat of 2007 by him and the team. But that doesn't blind me to the clear fact that that Josh Beckett is an artifact of the past, and he isn't walking through that door this year, or any year in the future - IMO.

    Beckett is a donkey? Well, all I wanted to prove is that Beckett doesn't deserve the opening day start. But since you bring it up, he'll be 31 in May, has managed 112 wins on 1528 IP with a very non ace like ERA+ of 112. I don't see him getting to 200 wins, or 3k IP. His closest age comps are: Millwood, Lackey, Freddy Garcia, Jack McDowell, Colon, Hentgen, Penny, Alex Fernandez. He is what he is.....
    Ok, you are getting very defensive considering I said I agree that Lester has been better in recent years. You pat yourself on the back constantly, and the moment someone disagrees even slightly you go absolutely nuts with a full page post, please relax I said at the beginning I agreed with your post for the most part, I just thought you undersold his value in the postseason which can and should not be understated regardless of how he has pitched recently. You say if you throw out his 2003, and 2007 performances? He pitched 72 innings, how about you through out his last 21 postseason innings and he is one of the best postseason pitchers of all time.

    It amuses me that you would "throw out" his great 2007. How does that make sense? How about you throw out his 2006, and his injury plauged 2010, how do his stats look then? Pretty good I'd say. If you do what I said instead he's had 2 seasons with an ERA over 4 in his career (4.1 and 4.03).

    I did not say your post was ignorant, I believed that instead of looking at the stats in an objective manner you took some of the stats and put them together to benefit your argument which you always do. I believe Beckett can regain form, you do not, that is the basis of our disagreement, and we should take it no further. Just as I said you take some stats and use them to your benefit: You conveniently name Millwood, Colon, Garcia, Penny, etc., etc., but you fail to name Halladay and Bunning which would toss your argument.....I have baseball-reference.com too.
    Last edited by Soxfan; 12-22-2010 at 12:09 PM.

  8. #38
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    Beckett in 07<3
    With out Beckett back in 2007 no world series ring.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Soxfan View Post
    Ok, you are getting very defensive considering I said I agree that Lester has been better in recent years. You pat yourself on the back constantly, and the moment someone disagrees even slightly you go absolutely nuts with a full page post, please relax I said at the beginning I agreed with your post for the most part, I just thought you undersold his value in the postseason which can and should not be understated regardless of how he has pitched recently. You say if you throw out his 2003, and 2007 performances? He pitched 72 innings, how about you through out his last 21 postseason innings and he is one of the best postseason pitchers of all time.

    It amuses me that you would "throw out" his great 2007. How does that make sense? How about you throw out his 2006, and his injury plauged 2010, how do his stats look then? Pretty good I'd say. If you do what I said instead he's had 2 seasons with an ERA over 4 in his career (4.1 and 4.03).

    I did not say your post was ignorant, I believed that instead of looking at the stats in an objective manner you took some of the stats and put them together to benefit your argument which you always do. I believe Beckett can regain form, you do not, that is the basis of our disagreement, and we should take it no further. Just as I said you take some stats and use them to your benefit: You conveniently name Millwood, Colon, Garcia, Penny, etc., etc., but you fail to name Halladay and Bunning which would toss your argument.....I have baseball-reference.com too.
    I guess it was the "ignorant" crack that did it - and that wasn't a defensive response, that was more detail to hold up my contention. If you want to see it as defensive, that's your issue.

    As of 2011, pitching performances from 4 and 8 years ago don't have as much relevance as that of performances from the last 3. If not, why isn't Ortiz batting 3rd this year?

    You are the one that made this a Beckett career gabfest. 2007 is four years ago, Lester now has 3 years in a row (very much the typical time period to use when talking about projecting the future BTW) that Beckett has not matched in any year of his career but 2007. All three of those years are more recent then 2007. Which recent resume makes for a better choice for opening day starter? You're the one that started tossing insults, and dragging performances from years ago into this conversation because your nose got out of joint about my comments on Beckett. I responded, and I'm the issue here? Nice try. Next time confine your objections to a more manageable size and leave the "ignorant" cracks at the door.

    As for Beckett's comps I listed the top 8 and didn't look at the next two because they were covered by another window. Let's look at Lester while we are at it: Hudson, Santana, Hamels, McDowell, Smiley, Pettitte, Shantz, Halladay (higher similarity score to Lester then JB BTW), Busby, Oswalt - fairly clear from the two lists that Lester is on a higher trajectory then Beckett - (If I'm so dedicated to making arguments go my way - why didn't I list that?) In half the innings, he's got a 130 ERA+, and a sterling 61-25 record - yet more reason to start him over Beckett. BTW, how does Bunning "toss my argument"? He had 4 of his best 7 years after age 31, and pitched until he was 39. Beckett will not trod a ML mound at that age.

    You need help with English composition. You said for me to dismiss Beckett's playoffs performances in '03 and '07 was ignorant. So either you are saying I am, or my post is. Well in this last post you claim "I did not say your post was ignorant," Hung by your petard.... And for all my awful reputation, I've behaved like a lamb - except that when I'm right I won't back to down - and that makes me defensive? - unh unh.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 12-22-2010 at 01:02 PM.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Redsox19 View Post
    Haha w/e Beckett will get The nod opening day, Tito is very loyal to his players. Beckett has gotten the ball every opening day since 09 (08 he was hurt)
    Why would that be more loyal than giving it to Lester. Isn't he one of "Tito's players"? Though his innings were more limited in 2006 and 2007 due to cancer, Lester has pitched for the Sox in every season that Beckett has pitched for them.

    Quote Originally Posted by Soxfan View Post
    It amuses me that you would "throw out" his great 2007. How does that make sense? How about you throw out his 2006, and his injury plauged 2010, how do his stats look then? Pretty good I'd say. If you do what I said instead he's had 2 seasons with an ERA over 4 in his career (4.1 and 4.03).
    Actually, that's not an unreasonable argument. His point is that Beckett's reputation is largely built on two post season runs. It's pretty reasonable to point out that if you remove those two runs that his track record is otherwise unimpressive.

    As for the 2006 and 2010 seasons, that's also a reasonable response. I'd mine a bit more and suggest that you look at the splits for the 2008 and 2009 seasons; he was pretty rough when the money was on the line since his spectacular performance in the 2007 post season. I think four or five of his second half months those years had ERA's north of 5.00

    Quote Originally Posted by Soxfan View Post
    I did not say your post was ignorant, I believed that instead of looking at the stats in an objective manner you took some of the stats and put them together to benefit your argument which you always do. I believe Beckett can regain form, you do not, that is the basis of our disagreement, and we should take it no further. Just as I said you take some stats and use them to your benefit: You conveniently name Millwood, Colon, Garcia, Penny, etc., etc., but you fail to name Halladay and Bunning which would toss your argument.....I have baseball-reference.com too.
    Isn't it reasonable to present stats in a way that support your argument? Isn't that the point, really?

    Halladay? Where in the world does he fit into the argument about regaining form? Broken legs and appendicitis do not generally fit into the category of recurring injuries of the sort that Beckett is battling. He's routinely (since 2007) had issues with his back.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    I guess it was the "ignorant" crack that did it - and that wasn't a defensive response, that was more detail to hold up my contention. If you want to see it as defensive, that's your issue.

    As of 2011, pitching performances from 4 and 8 years ago don't have as much relevance as that of performances from the last 3. If not, why isn't Ortiz batting 3rd this year?

    You are the one that made this a Beckett career gabfest. 2007 is four years ago, Lester now has 3 years in a row (very much the typical time period to use when talking about projecting the future BTW) that Beckett has not matched in any year of his career but 2007. All three of those years are more recent then 2007. Which recent resume makes for a better choice for opening day starter? You're the one that started tossing insults, and dragging performances from years ago into this conversation because your nose got out of joint about my comments on Beckett. I responded, and I'm the issue here? Nice try. Next time confine your objections to a more manageable size and leave the "ignorant" cracks at the door.

    As for Beckett's comps I listed the top 8 and didn't look at the next two because they were covered by another window. Let's look at Lester while we are at it: Hudson, Santana, Hamels, McDowell, Smiley, Pettitte, Shantz, Halladay (higher similarity score to Lester then JB BTW), Busby, Oswalt - fairly clear from the two lists that Lester is on a higher trajectory then Beckett - (If I'm so dedicated to making arguments go my way - why didn't I list that?) In half the innings, he's got a 130 ERA+, and a sterling 61-25 record - yet more reason to start him over Beckett. BTW, how does Bunning "toss my argument"? He had 4 of his best 7 years after age 31, and pitched until he was 39. Beckett will not trod a ML mound at that age.

    You need help with English composition. You said for me to dismiss Beckett's playoffs performances in '03 and '07 was ignorant. So either you are saying I am, or my post is. Well in this last post you claim "I did not say your post was ignorant," Hung by your petard.... And for all my awful reputation, I've behaved like a lamb - except that when I'm right I won't back to down - and that makes me defensive? - unh unh.
    I said clearly "But to say his reputation rests on beating the Yankees and 2007 LIKE IT IS NOTHING is ignorant." I said that because you glanced over it, barely recognizing it, I did not say your post was ignorant because I agree Lester is the better pitcher and should start opening day. I did not once say Josh Beckett should start opening day, nor did I state Beckett is a better pitcher then Lester. Like I said in my previous post our disagreement is that I believe Beckett can regain past greatness and you clearly do not.

    To bring up David Ortiz is just laughable, a 35 year old out of shape DH past his prime, compared to a 30 year old pitcher with good stuff, who has the potential to have some strong seasons ahead, can you be serious? Bunning had some great years after age 30 and his career before 30 was also great, the reason why his is a HOFer. Also you can not compare wins and losses, Beckett through his first 607 innings pitching for the Marlins was 39-34 with a 3.47 ERA most likely should have a few more wins if his team could hit. Lester is 61-25 with a 3.55 career ERA in his first 766 innings with one of the most potent lineups in the league behind him. Again, I will reiterate I do not see Beckett as the better pitcher at this point but to bring up wins and losses is shall I say....ignorant?

    These posts have become off topic, and I can see you will not believe Beckett can have anymore good seasons, and I believe he can and will. Chris Carpenter is a great example of someone who overcame injuries to pitch great past 30, would you believe Carpenter never posted an ERA below 4 until after he turned 30? My post was not to make you mad, I just think you undervalue Beckett and what he is capable of, I am not here to insult your baseball knowledge, I can tell you know your stuff. That was a compliment, not a recant of my posts.

  12. #42
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    ^^^ The problem with your comparison is that Bunning:
    1. Never had a "bad" season before age 38. To that point his worst season was a 3.89 ERA.
    2. Did not throw fewer than 219IP until age 36. He never missed time due to injury


    The question about Beckett has a lot more to do with him being able to put together a FULL season of effective work, not simply finish with a nice stat line. That's why there were questions about him before he arrived in BOS and why they've returned after three consecutive injury shortened seasons.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedSoxtober View Post
    Why would that be more loyal than giving it to Lester. Isn't he one of "Tito's players"? Though his innings were more limited in 2006 and 2007 due to cancer, Lester has pitched for the Sox in every season that Beckett has pitched for them.


    Actually, that's not an unreasonable argument. His point is that Beckett's reputation is largely built on two post season runs. It's pretty reasonable to point out that if you remove those two runs that his track record is otherwise unimpressive.

    As for the 2006 and 2010 seasons, that's also a reasonable response. I'd mine a bit more and suggest that you look at the splits for the 2008 and 2009 seasons; he was pretty rough when the money was on the line since his spectacular performance in the 2007 post season. I think four or five of his second half months those years had ERA's north of 5.00



    Isn't it reasonable to present stats in a way that support your argument? Isn't that the point, really?

    Halladay? Where in the world does he fit into the argument about regaining form? Broken legs and appendicitis do not generally fit into the category of recurring injuries of the sort that Beckett is battling. He's routinely (since 2007) had issues with his back.
    It is unreasonable to throw away seasons that do not fit your argument, I would not throw out any season good or bad, he did the pitching its not like it was someone else in his uniform. I made the example of throwing out 2006 and 2010 because the point was made that if you take away 2007 he is nothing. He has had injuries and other great pitchers have had injuries and overcome them as well. The comparison to Halladay was not about regaining form, rather similar pitchers at age 30, Halladay was one on the list as comparable to Beckett at age 30, that was not included when he put his list together. In all of my posts I am not downplaying Lester, or really trying to divulge far into the stats; I am looking at a 30 year old pitcher, with good stuff (yes he has had injuries), that, I believe, can be a great asset in years to come. This is all I am saying.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedSoxtober View Post
    ^^^ The problem with your comparison is that Bunning:
    1. Never had a "bad" season before age 38. To that point his worst season was a 3.89 ERA.
    2. Did not throw fewer than 219IP until age 36. He never missed time due to injury


    The question about Beckett has a lot more to do with him being able to put together a FULL season of effective work, not simply finish with a nice stat line. That's why there were questions about him before he arrived in BOS and why they've returned after three consecutive injury shortened seasons.
    I did not make the comparison. Go to Josh Beckett's page on baseball-reference.com and you will see Bunning under the list of comparable pitchers at age 30. Also in that time period IP was not monitored as it is today pitchers would routinely throw 300 innings like it was nothing, you do not see that today.
    Last edited by Soxfan; 12-22-2010 at 01:52 PM.

  15. #45
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    We can all agree on this... Beckett will be back to the 2007 Beckett this year. I feel he will rebound nicely. He still has front of the roation stuff all he needs to do is forget about 2010 and worry about 2011. When heathly and he's on a nice roll he is one of the top pitchers in the game. Beckett never got on a roll last year due to nagging injuries.
    Beckett in 2011,
    17-8
    3.60 era

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