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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pavelb1 View Post
    Pah...I meant to say "In the league"...and still don't see how Aardsma and Gregg were worse...I haven't looked at the others much yet.

    A closers job is to close. Papelbon was among the league leaders in failing to do that, AND he led the league in losses for a closer. Allthe SABR stats in the world won't change that. His position is results based, and FIP, and the FBI and the NAACP won't change that.
    Losses are terrible way to judge any pitcher, especially closers. They're rarely put in positions where they can pick up a win but are almost always put in situations where they can pick up a loss. If you don't believe me, look at Mariano Rivera's .500 W-L record since 2006.

  2. #62
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    I can't see the Sox being in on Fuentes. There is an old saying of having too many cooks in the kitchen, and I think a Fuentes signing would be this to a tee. They basically have 3 closers right now, and I can't see them adding another. They have right now, what seems to be a very talented bullpen, on paper. I would be more inclined to go the route of a guy like Joe Beimel maybe, if I'm shopping for a lefty, if I were the boss. He isn't as flashy a signing as Fuentes, nor would he be as expensive. I feel for the sake of adding a lefty, he would be a better option at this point for the Sox.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by North Country View Post
    Losses are terrible way to judge any pitcher, especially closers. They're rarely put in positions where they can pick up a win but are almost always put in situations where they can pick up a loss. If you don't believe me, look at Mariano Rivera's .500 W-L record since 2006.
    Very true..... also, if they do have alot of wins, they still have a pile of blown saves anyway...

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by North Country View Post
    Losses are terrible way to judge any pitcher, especially closers. They're rarely put in positions where they can pick up a win but are almost always put in situations where they can pick up a loss. If you don't believe me, look at Mariano Rivera's .500 W-L record since 2006.
    Losses are a terrible way to judge a closer? orly? Maybe if they have a little league defense behind them.

    That's like saying missed field goals are a terrible way to judge a kicker.

    And I didn't say anything about w-l or win pct.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pavelb1 View Post
    Losses are a terrible way to judge a closer? orly? Maybe if they have a little league defense behind them.

    That's like saying missed field goals are a terrible way to judge a kicker.

    And I didn't say anything about w-l or win pct.
    Yes really. Losses are a terrible way of judging any pitcher, let alone a closer.

    It has nothing to do with defense behind them or luck. Think about the situations closers come into. They almost never have a chance to pick up a win because their team usually hast a lead already. They often come into games late that are very close, with little chance for the offense to bail them out if they have a bad inning. And a lot of the times they inherit runners and then get pegged with a blown save or a loss if they allow a hit or two.
    Last edited by North Country; 12-29-2010 at 12:00 AM.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pavelb1 View Post
    I don't understand this love affair Sox fans have with names. A pen of Bard, Jenks, Paps and Fuentes would be excellent?

    Paps was arguably the worst closer in baseball last year. Jenks was replaced. Had an era+ of 97. Yes, he had a great K/9, but its a results-based business. Fuentes was effective at least and we all know about Bard.

  7. #67
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    right now i have Rich Hill Pegged as the lefty in the pen.
    Last edited by Celtic AL; 12-29-2010 at 01:16 AM.
    FIGHT OWENS FIGHT
    POWER. BOMB. EVERYBODY.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by North Country View Post
    Yes really. Losses are a terrible way of judging any pitcher, let alone a closer.

    It has nothing to do with defense behind them or luck. Think about the situations closers come into. They almost never have a chance to pick up a win because their team usually hast a lead already. They often come into games late that are very close, with little chance for the offense to bail them out if they have a bad inning. And a lot of the times they inherit runners and then get pegged with a blown save or a loss if they allow a hit or two.
    "Or 2"? Please. Defense and bad luck. Yeah, thats why the amazing Papelbot lead the league in BS's and losses. It was just bad luck.

    And that LOB% of 68.7%? The one that places him in 65th place out of 76 relievers with 40 or more innings? Luck. That ground ball % of 38.3? 54th place out of 76.

    BUT ALLRIGHT: I did an in-depth sabr study of last year. Papelbon did enter into a lot of high-leverage situations, so ill give HIM something of a pass on losses. A deep study would seem to bear out some luck issues, so Ill STFU about it. But if he repeats this year? I feel sorry for the team that he leaves for. They're getting a walking broken mirror.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by trigimon View Post
    I'm interested in seeing how Papelbon takes this going into next year. Is it going to effect his ability on the field, knowing he's got to put out better than last year? Or will he be oblivous to it all and rebound with a great year? Personally I've been saying for a couple years, that teams are onto his game and hav adjusted to it and he hasn't evolved which led to declining stats in every year.

    Remember when he first came in the league and was striking everyone out with that high fast ball out of the strike zone for strike 3? Yeah that one. Well, they figured out to not swing at at the strike 3 pitch cause it would most likely be called a ball. They figured him out. He rarely pitched strike 3 within the zone. it was always high and they kept swinging at it for like 3 years. He's gotta change and develop a new strike 3 caliber pitch. He could'nt do that last year. The question is, will he?
    Definitely agree with this.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by North Country View Post
    Yes really. Losses are a terrible way of judging any pitcher, let alone a closer.

    It has nothing to do with defense behind them or luck. Think about the situations closers come into. They almost never have a chance to pick up a win because their team usually hast a lead already. They often come into games late that are very close, with little chance for the offense to bail them out if they have a bad inning. And a lot of the times they inherit runners and then get pegged with a blown save or a loss if they allow a hit or two.
    I'm with you on starting pitchers, but losses are as good a measurement as any to judge closers.
    The closer's job is to get three outs without any trouble. "A bad inning" is a crappy game for a closer. "Allowing a hit or two" means they blew the game. Sure, it happens to everyone, but if you do it a bunch of times then it means you're just not doing your job as a closer. Not to mention the fact that more often than not they come in to a clean inning, no inherited runners.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by North Country View Post
    Losses are terrible way to judge any pitcher, especially closers. They're rarely put in positions where they can pick up a win but are almost always put in situations where they can pick up a loss. If you don't believe me, look at Mariano Rivera's .500 W-L record since 2006.
    No, not really. If a closer comes in with the bases loaded and ahead two runs he can give up a bases clearing double and NOT take the loss. A closer's loss really is his own doing.

    Since 2006 Rivera is .500.

  12. #72
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  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedSoxtober View Post
    No, not really. If a closer comes in with the bases loaded and ahead two runs he can give up a bases clearing double and NOT take the loss. A closer's loss really is his own doing.

    Since 2006 Rivera is .500.
    That's my point. If losses are a valuable indicator of the performance of a closer, then why does the best closer of all-time have a .500 record since 2006? It's not like he's been in decline over that time period, to the contrary 2007-2010 appears to be the best 3 year run of his career.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pavelb1 View Post
    "Or 2"? Please. Defense and bad luck. Yeah, thats why the amazing Papelbot lead the league in BS's and losses. It was just bad luck.

    And that LOB% of 68.7%? The one that places him in 65th place out of 76 relievers with 40 or more innings? Luck. That ground ball % of 38.3? 54th place out of 76.

    BUT ALLRIGHT: I did an in-depth sabr study of last year. Papelbon did enter into a lot of high-leverage situations, so ill give HIM something of a pass on losses. A deep study would seem to bear out some luck issues, so Ill STFU about it. But if he repeats this year? I feel sorry for the team that he leaves for. They're getting a walking broken mirror.
    Nowhere did I say that Papelbon was good last year. I just don't think it's fair to say that the was the worst closer in baseball based on his loss totals. Like you said, he did enter into a lot of high leverage situations and he was relied on quite heavily considering the lack of depth in our bullpen.

    I'm with you on your overall assessment of him though. He's not very good, and I was all for non-tendering him before he were stuck with his $11 million salary next year. But now we're stuck with him. If we're lucky, he performs up to his contract year. But if not, I think we could find a more capable closer in either Bard or Jenks.

  15. #75
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    What about Will Ohman? He's held lefties to a .223/.303/.386 slash line the last three years and wouldn't cost us any draft pick compensation.

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