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View Poll Results: Which of the following will reach 3000 base hits

Voters
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  • Derek Jeter (2926)

    170 93.92%
  • Ivan Rodriguez (2817)

    51 28.18%
  • Omar Vizquel (2799)

    13 7.18%
  • Alex Rodriguez (2672)

    145 80.11%
  • Manny Ramirez (2573)

    18 9.94%
  • Johnny Damon (2571)

    10 5.52%
  • Chipper Jones (2490)

    0 0%
  • Vlad (2427)

    16 8.84%
  • Miguel Tejada (2285)

    3 1.66%
  • Bobby Abreu (2257)

    4 2.21%
  • Edgar Renteria (2252)

    0 0%
  • Ichiro (2244)

    112 61.88%
  • Todd Helton (2236)

    2 1.10%
  • Mags (2072)

    4 2.21%
  • Carlos Lee (1967)

    2 1.10%
  • Orlando Cabrera (1948)

    1 0.55%
  • Scott Rolen (1944)

    1 0.55%
  • Albert Pujols (1900)

    133 73.48%
  • Adrian Beltre (1889)

    4 2.21%
  • Luis Castillo (1889)

    0 0%
  • Paul Konerko (1861)

    1 0.55%
  • Mike Young (1848)

    11 6.08%
  • Juan Pierre (1843)

    1 0.55%
  • Jimmy Rollins (1714)

    8 4.42%
  • Carl Crawford (1480)

    36 19.89%
  • Miguel Cabrera (1400)

    61 33.70%
  • David Wright (1149)

    35 19.34%
  • Jose Reyes (1119)

    11 6.08%
  • Robinson Cano (1075)

    60 33.15%
  • Alex Rios (1065)

    3 1.66%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 1 to 15 of 57
  1. #1
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    Who will reach 3000 base hits?

    Poll coming, vote for all those that will reach 3000 base hits in YOUR OPINION. If you think this player will get a 3000th base hit in their career, and vote for them.

  2. #2
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    I will.

  3. #3
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    I picked guys that either had the outside chance based on age, and career base hits, no one, under the age of 27 or with under 1000 career base hits was included.

  4. #4
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    Jeter, Pudge, A-Rod, Pujols

    Then you have a list of possibles with Miguel Cabrera, Ichiro and D. Wright.

    Looking from a homerish stand point. Rollins has an outside shot with under 1300 to go. Given his incredible defensive tools, he could hang around long enough to have a shot.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by MooseWithFleas View Post
    Jeter, Pudge, A-Rod, Pujols

    Then you have a list of possibles with Miguel Cabrera, Ichiro and D. Wright.

    Looking from a homerish stand point. Rollins has an outside shot with under 1300 to go. Given his incredible defensive tools, he could hang around long enough to have a shot.
    Rollins reminds me of Renteria a few years ago, in terms of 3000 hits as a possibility (and actually a little bit behind). But you just never know with guys entering their 30's, they could still Barry Bonds produce, or fall off like Ralph Kiner

  6. #6
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    Yeah, a lot of it depends on how long he wants to play. We don't know at this point if he can go Omar Vizquel long, but a lot of it depends on his desire to play into his late 30's and early 40's

  7. #7
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    Actually, I should have voted for Omar Vizquel, I should have giving him more consideration from what I saw out of him this year. His arm is not as stong, but his range and near flawless hands could have him out-defending most of the league for at least 3 more years. 3 years of 300-ish ABs could see him easily getting 201 more hits. I don't think he will be doing that with the White Sox because they have found a great defensive rookie in Morel, but I hope another team picks up Vizquel... Especially a garbage team that can't do anything better with their time.

    Lol, I propose one of the teams that isn't good is the designated team that takes older players looking to get their last swings in.

  8. #8
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    thanks for this great thread!

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rdy2PlayBall View Post
    Actually, I should have voted for Omar Vizquel, I should have giving him more consideration from what I saw out of him this year. His arm is not as stong, but his range and near flawless hands could have him out-defending most of the league for at least 3 more years. 3 years of 300-ish ABs could see him easily getting 201 more hits. I don't think he will be doing that with the White Sox because they have found a great defensive rookie in Morel, but I hope another team picks up Vizquel... Especially a garbage team that can't do anything better with their time.

    Lol, I propose one of the teams that isn't good is the designated team that takes older players looking to get their last swings in.
    You mean the Mariners?

  10. #10
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    Would anyone like to know the statistical chances of certain players reaching?

    Jeters current career pace would end him with 3491, and has a 97% chance of reaching 3000.

    I will post the rest, a friend just got in town from Montana for our wedding Saturday, and my fiancee just returned from the airport with her, I'll post the rest later.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by MooseWithFleas View Post
    You mean the Mariners?
    Haha, Griffey is an icon for them though. I don't really blame them.

    I'm talking about a team full of Griffeys.
    They could catch a bunch of lightnings in a bottle.

    ----
    Jeter at 97%? Does he even have an injury history? I can't believe it's not 99%. Who am I kidding though, 97% is still pretty high!

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Rollins reminds me of Renteria a few years ago, in terms of 3000 hits as a possibility (and actually a little bit behind). But you just never know with guys entering their 30's, they could still Barry Bonds produce, or fall off like Ralph Kiner
    You do realize a severe back injury forced Kiner to retire in his prime don't you? Its not like he just fell off.

    "It's hard to win an argument with a smart person, but it's damn near impossible to win an argument against a stupid person." - Bill Murray
    Sabermetric Myths
    FIP=better pitcher
    WAR is fact
    Pythagorean records and win expectancy have value
    Strikeouts are overrated
    Best regular season record = best team
    Regular season > Post season
    The difference between me and you is I don't need the internet to discuss baseball intelligently.

  13. #13
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    Ichiro, Jeter A-Rod and Pujols for sure, I think, barring collapse.

    Also chose Miggy and DWright but they're still too young to say anything.

    Personally, I hope that people like Abreu, Damon, Tejada and the like don't stay playing just to reach the milestone crawling.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rdy2PlayBall View Post
    Haha, Griffey is an icon for them though. I don't really blame them.

    I'm talking about a team full of Griffeys.
    They could catch a bunch of lightnings in a bottle.

    ----
    Jeter at 97%? Does he even have an injury history? I can't believe it's not 99%. Who am I kidding though, 97% is still pretty high!
    Mike Sweeney too

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Would anyone like to know the statistical chances of certain players reaching?

    Jeters current career pace would end him with 3491, and has a 97% chance of reaching 3000.
    Quote Originally Posted by RTL View Post
    You do realize a severe back injury forced Kiner to retire in his prime don't you? Its not like he just fell off.
    yes, the point is that some people play well into their 30's and are effective, and others disappear for one reason or another

    Bill James gives this disclaimer. (responding to the poster who said Jeter only has a 97% chance?)

    Bill James invented Career Assessments as a projection method to predict final career totals for players. The formula presumes that a player has (42 - age)/2 seasons remaining, but not less than 1.5 seasons, and it is determined using the player's age on June 30 of the previous year. If the player is a catcher, his remaining seasons are multiplied by 0.7. Using the established norms and years remaining, the final total is projected, and the chance to reach that total can be derived. No player can have more than a 97-percent chance to reach any goal.
    Pudge has a 68% shot of reaching 3000 base hits, he is on pace to reach 3033 career base hits.

    Omar Vizquel has a 0% chance of reaching 3000 base hits, and is on pace to reach 2899 career base hits. Basically, he only has a max of one more season left. a 0% is a strong prediction, but I didn't make the rules.

    Alex Rodriguez has a 97% chance of reaching 3000 career base hits (same as Jeter) and is on pace to reach 3243. Hey, I didn't make the calculator, Bill James did. But it suggests A-Rod only has 4 more productive seasons ahead of him.

    Manny has a 15% chance of reaching 3000 base hits, and is on pace to reach 2850.

    Damon has a 62% chance of reaching 3000 base hits. He is on pace to reach
    3051.


    Chipper Jones has a 4% chance of reaching 3000 base hits. He is on pace to reach 2764.

    Vlad has a 41% chance of reaching 3000 base hits. He is on pace to reach 2949.

    Miguel Tejada has a 27% chance of reaching 3000 base hits. He is on pace to reach 2838

    Ichiro has a 36% chance of reaching 3000 base hits. He is on pace to reach 2895.

    Pujols has a 51% chance of reaching 3000 base hits. He is on pace to reach 3016.

    Miggy has a 37% chance of reaching 3000 base hits. On pace to reach 2795.



    The chances raise the closer you get to 3000, obviously, so potential of reaching is nearly as important as actually acquiring the hits, example, Miggy vs Damon.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 10-26-2010 at 01:47 AM. Reason: bolded those projected to do it

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