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Thread: 2011 Salary Cap

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by AI4LIFE View Post
    Beltre (Gold glove defense at 3B, keeps Youk at 1st, high BA and power bat)

    VMart (Has improved on his defense and a very good offensive catcher)

    Werth (High OB % with power and decent defender that can replace Drew at RF once his contract is up)

    They all bring very good value to the team. You can say let's trade for A-Gon or sign him when he becomes a FA but that means moving Youk to 3rd which will eventually shorten his career unless you plan on moving him to DH and playing one of your gold glove caliber corner IFs at DH isn't the best idea.

    Getting Werth and the emergence of Kalish all but sure makes trading Ellsbury a 100% chance. Maybe we can ship him out with Dice-K and get Ethier? Or we ship Ells and Paps this offseason to create space ($) for a DH signing, maybe Dunn?
    Well, the crux of the argument is that $45M for Werth, Beltre and Victor puts the 2011 payroll somewhere around $170M. I dont think they are going to go that high in 2011. Even if they did, you've spent $170M and haven't addressed the bullpen and don't have a DH. So the plan simply isnt economically feasible in 2011.

    Aside from that, Werth, Beltre and Victor are all going to get deals for minimum 4 years. (Werth and Beltre likely 5 years). So, in 2014 when Werth, Beltre and Victor are all 35, this squad is in big trouble. It would be a repeat of 2010, with tons of $ locked into old versions of Lowell, Varitek. and Ortiz.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisKeg View Post
    Well, the crux of the argument is that $45M for Werth, Beltre and Victor puts the 2011 payroll somewhere around $170M. I dont think they are going to go that high in 2011. Even if they did, you've spent $170M and haven't addressed the bullpen and don't have a DH. So the plan simply isnt economically feasible in 2011.

    Aside from that, Werth, Beltre and Victor are all going to get deals for minimum 4 years. (Werth and Beltre likely 5 years). So, in 2014 when Werth, Beltre and Victor are all 35, this squad is in big trouble. It would be a repeat of 2010, with tons of $ locked into old versions of Lowell, Varitek. and Ortiz.
    The budget does seem to disallow such a set of moves.

    If you go with Lowrie/Hall you can replace Beltre (or try) for 2011, and have dough for the pen.

    Or, if you go with Cameron/Kalish in LF in 2011, you can avoid Werth's decline years and the NL transition issues, and again have dough for the pen. If the Sox patch things up with Ellsbury, you've got a base of Ellsbury and Kalish for '12. You sign a masher LF for '12.

    I'm starting to think the best moves:

    (again) given the lack of 3B that you may have try Youk there 1/2 games, and Lowrie for the rest.

    Then Youk at DH for a smidge less then 1/2 and VMart for a smidge more then 1/2.

    VMart at C for about 50 games, and a stud defensive catcher for the rest (not Salty).

    I would advise a stud corner OF be added via trade (sorry no to CC and Werth). When they get this player, deal Ellsbury for a good reliever, and go with MC/Kalish in CF.

    In this plan you need to get a FA 1B (not that hard - Konerko, Overbay, Pena - or Dunn at a higher price tag), a FA catcher (also not that hard - Buck, Laird?), and you avoid the final decline and fall of Ortiz which is coming soon. In fact if you are budget minded enough you could get a C and a 1B for what Ortiz will cost or a bit more. Don't need Beltre either. That would probably be the most cost effective way to go, and leaves some flexibility to adjust for '12 when the window appears to be opening wider. I do think that 2-3 years at half time at 3B is about the most of what Youk could handle so it would be great if they could develop one from within.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 10-02-2010 at 08:05 AM.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

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  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisKeg View Post
    Well, the crux of the argument is that $45M for Werth, Beltre and Victor puts the 2011 payroll somewhere around $170M. I dont think they are going to go that high in 2011. Even if they did, you've spent $170M and haven't addressed the bullpen and don't have a DH. So the plan simply isnt economically feasible in 2011.

    Aside from that, Werth, Beltre and Victor are all going to get deals for minimum 4 years. (Werth and Beltre likely 5 years). So, in 2014 when Werth, Beltre and Victor are all 35, this squad is in big trouble. It would be a repeat of 2010, with tons of $ locked into old versions of Lowell, Varitek. and Ortiz.
    Well you could let Beltre walk, not sign Werth and have Dunn split time at LL/1B with Youk splitting that time at 3B/1B.*

    That way you only sign Dunn + re-sign VMart leaving room to reboot the pen. Then we leave room open for a possible Ethier trade or get him in FA 2012. Slide Ethier in LF, Dunn at 1st and Youk at 3rd unless Dunn buys in to the whole DH idea then we can DH him and maybe put Felipe Lopez/Lowrie over at 3B until one of the boys over at the farm is ready to come up.

    But we could afford Beltre, VMart and Werth if we could unload Papelbon and Dice-K this offseason.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by AI4LIFE View Post
    But we could afford Beltre, VMart and Werth if we could unload Papelbon and Dice-K this offseason.
    When you trade players, you get players back. You have to pay those new guys. In the case of Dice-K, there is no way they move him without taking a significant contract back and/or pay a portion of his salary. So, IF we are able to unload those 2, you spent the $ savings on the players we received back in the deal and MAYBE have a few bucks left to pay the Beltre/Vmart/Werth trio. And we still haven't fixed the bullpen or found a DH. In fact, now the bullpen and rotation are in worse shape. This plan would likely cost the Sox even more $ than your last scenario.

    The notion of just "unloading contracts" has seemed popular lately. It normally doesn't work quite so simply. I'm not so sure why everyone thinks we can easily part with a closer who is in obvious decline and a well-known underachieving starter and it won't cost us anything. In the case of unloading Dice-K and Papelbon, we also would be unloading key players who happen to play expensive positions. So we need to spend $ to fill those positions. It just doesn't seem likely that such deals would be a cost-cutting measure.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisKeg View Post
    When you trade players, you get players back. You have to pay those new guys. In the case of Dice-K, there is no way they move him without taking a significant contract back and/or pay a portion of his salary. So, IF we are able to unload those 2, you spent the $ savings on the players we received back in the deal and MAYBE have a few bucks left to pay the Beltre/Vmart/Werth trio. And we still haven't fixed the bullpen or found a DH. In fact, now the bullpen and rotation are in worse shape. This plan would likely cost the Sox even more $ than your last scenario.

    The notion of just "unloading contracts" has seemed popular lately. It normally doesn't work quite so simply. I'm not so sure why everyone thinks we can easily part with a closer who is in obvious decline and a well-known underachieving starter and it won't cost us anything. In the case of unloading Dice-K and Papelbon, we also would be unloading key players who happen to play expensive positions. So we need to spend $ to fill those positions. It just doesn't seem likely that such deals would be a cost-cutting measure.
    There are a number of teams that need starting pitching and have a payroll that can allow them to take on a contract like Dice-K's. We could end up unloading Dice-K, Cameron, Papelbon, etc and not pay a big portion of their contract. As for filling the voids left by trading our 5th SP and closer, we could slide Doubront as our 5th SP and slide down Bard to the closer spot with Theo probably signing a couple pen arms this offseason. There are solution from within the organization as well from FA and trades and we are blessed to have such a great GM that takes all that into consideration and can make it all happen.
    Last edited by AI; 10-02-2010 at 01:58 PM.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by AI4LIFE View Post
    Well you could let Beltre walk, not sign Werth and have Dunn split time at LL/1B with Youk splitting that time at 3B/1B.*

    That way you only sign Dunn + re-sign VMart leaving room to reboot the pen. Then we leave room open for a possible Ethier trade or get him in FA 2012. Slide Ethier in LF, Dunn at 1st and Youk at 3rd unless Dunn buys in to the whole DH idea then we can DH him and maybe put Felipe Lopez/Lowrie over at 3B until one of the boys over at the farm is ready to come up.

    But we could afford Beltre, VMart and Werth if we could unload Papelbon and Dice-K this offseason.

    Ethier is making $9.25M in 2011. According to Fangraphs, his production was worth $12.3 in 2009 and $9.3M in 2010. Based on his service time, I think the Dodgers have control over him (arbitration eligible) for the 2012 season also. So if the Dodgers are looking to shed cash, Ethier doesn't seem like the most likely trade candidate. If the Sox wanted to sign Ethier, they'd have to wait until the offseason prior to the 2013 season.

    Many have suggested that the Sox deal Paps and/or Dice to the Dodgers. But both of the RS guys will make more than Ethier in 2011. And Dice will make another $10M in 2012. Maybe the Dodgers would be interested in Ellsbury, since he is cheaper, but Ethier has been too productive to merit dumping.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by AI4LIFE View Post
    There are a number of teams that neef starting pitching and have a payroll that can allow them o take on a contract like Dice-K's. We could end up unloading Dice-K, Cameron, Papelbon, etc and not pay a big portion of their contract.
    You gotta think this all the way through...
    *You didn't address that the RS will be taking players back in those trades that cost money.
    *Every GM in baseball has seen Paps decline. Every GM knows that Cameron was hurt all year long. They aren't blind. This really hurts those guys market values.
    *Listen carefully here... According to fangraphs WAR, Papelbon's 09 and 10 performances were worth $8.8M and $4.5M respectively. He will likely get $11M or $12M in arbitration (he got $9.35M in 2010). That means he won't be a good value. When GM's trade for people who cost more in salary than their performance merits, they expect financial compensation. That compensation would mean the Sox would chip in cash towards his salary or the Sox would have to take on one of the other GM's overpaid players. What GM would be happy to just take on $11M in salary for a guy who just performed at a $4.5M level? Think about it.
    *Papelbon and Cam are free agents after 2011, so they would be 1-yr rentals for trading teams.
    *Dice-K is a 2-yr rental (and has a full no-trade clause).
    *The Sox could hang onto Cam and Papelbon, get production out of them in 2011, then let them walk next offseason and get 2 compensation picks for each. Any trade offer the Sox receive would need to provide more value than the draft picks.
    *If the Sox trade Paps, they need LOTS of bullpen help this season. That costs money.

    You have to think the whole thing through. It's not as easy as dumping contracts on teams who have cash. All this info paints a picture that Papelbon specificly, is an extremely unlikely trading piece.

  8. #23
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    Since this thread started with a pretty good breakdown of our budget going into the offseason I thought it would be a good place to update where we stand right now. Based on this article we are estimated to be at $182 million, $4 million over the luxury tax limit. >>>

    http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/ba...xury-item-2011

    It's a pretty good estimate for where we are right now.

    The budget buster was Crawford, and like him or not we own him. For the record I could never get my head around the cost for him, but he'll earn his keep, +/-. The more I look forward the more I like him.

    The article says we should trade Cameron or Scutaro to get under the Luxury Tax, but I don't see any budget saving member of this team I would trade. Next year we have a lot of money coming off the budget, so I would rather pay tax than weaken the team.

    In case you haven't noticed pitching is winning more and more games, so stop with the let's trade Dice & Paps ideas. They should both be on the roster next year. Ya I know, fool me twice shame on me but they have manageable problems.

  9. #24
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    I've been meaning to update the numbers here but it looks like that article has it right. I believe the Sox will make a move but I'm not sure that Cameron is it. He may well be; $7.5M for a bench guy is very expensive. Other likely targets are Dice-K and Scutaro, both depending strongly on the readiness of their potential replacements (Doubront and Lowrie respectively).

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedSoxtober View Post
    I've been meaning to update the numbers here but it looks like that article has it right. I believe the Sox will make a move but I'm not sure that Cameron is it. He may well be; $7.5M for a bench guy is very expensive. Other likely targets are Dice-K and Scutaro, both depending strongly on the readiness of their potential replacements (Doubront and Lowrie respectively).
    I 'm thinking you're probably spot on on Cameron. That is very expensive for a 4th outfielder, but something tells me they won't move him, at least until Ellsbury shows he all the way back. The more I think about it though, I think if anyone is going to be moved, it's going to be Scutaro. I think there is a greater need out there for a capable starting SS, than Cameron. (The Reds come to mind possibly.) I know Dice-K's name has been mentioned, but I can't see them dealing a starting pitcher unless they get really blown away with an offer.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by taffi101 View Post
    I 'm thinking you're probably spot on on Cameron. That is very expensive for a 4th outfielder, but something tells me they won't move him, at least until Ellsbury shows he all the way back. The more I think about it though, I think if anyone is going to be moved, it's going to be Scutaro. I think there is a greater need out there for a capable starting SS, than Cameron. (The Reds come to mind possibly.) I know Dice-K's name has been mentioned, but I can't see them dealing a starting pitcher unless they get really blown away with an offer.
    I believe they don't make a move until ST , at the earliest. If someone is dire and we see a solid move to make in July maybe then. But, I believe this year after last year they are out to prove something both financially and on the field. People need to understand the RS lost huge market share last year. Winning and new high profile guys create revenue and TV ratings are won over by winning.

    My guess is no moves. 75% sure......25% chance in ST someone steps up and someone else gets moved. Lowrie or Scutaro would be silly at this point both for health reasons. Inglesias shows in ST he can handle it defensively, maybe a move is made. (doubts)

    Our OF'ers are brittle , Crawford might be the only non brittle OF'er. Drew=brittle, Cameron= Brittle , Ellsbury ?? He has brittle tendencies. We do have a kid or two that can come up and play , but at what level. McDonald? Not an everyday guy.

    Unless a solid catcher is dangled....then all bets are off. Also Pedy is coming off major foot problems. Lowrie and Scuts need to relieve one another. Depth is critical ....

    From reading articles nobody has offered us squat on Daisuke. He is a perfect NL starter imo. He would be fine over there ...but he has that clause.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by lil'papi View Post
    Unless a solid catcher is dangled....then all bets are off. Also Pedy is coming off major foot problems. Lowrie and Scuts need to relieve one another. Depth is critical .....


    Great point on needing the depth.....not having that Bill Hall type supersub kinda takes away from the depth, and you're probably right, with no moves being made for a while. This team is better with both Lowrie and Scutaro right now. I'm guessing though, that come the end of July, Scutaro will be playing somewhere else..........

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by lil'papi View Post
    I believe they don't make a move until ST , at the earliest. If someone is dire and we see a solid move to make in July maybe then. But, I believe this year after last year they are out to prove something both financially and on the field. People need to understand the RS lost huge market share last year. Winning and new high profile guys create revenue and TV ratings are won over by winning.

    My guess is no moves. 75% sure......25% chance in ST someone steps up and someone else gets moved. Lowrie or Scutaro would be silly at this point both for health reasons. Inglesias shows in ST he can handle it defensively, maybe a move is made. (doubts)

    Our OF'ers are brittle , Crawford might be the only non brittle OF'er. Drew=brittle, Cameron= Brittle , Ellsbury ?? He has brittle tendencies. We do have a kid or two that can come up and play , but at what level. McDonald? Not an everyday guy.

    Unless a solid catcher is dangled....then all bets are off. Also Pedy is coming off major foot problems. Lowrie and Scuts need to relieve one another. Depth is critical ....

    From reading articles nobody has offered us squat on Daisuke. He is a perfect NL starter imo. He would be fine over there ...but he has that clause.
    I agree that we'll wait until Spring Training to make a move. It's important to note that the luxury tax figure is calculated by the average team salary over each day of the season. So if we did something like trading Cameron on the last day of May, it would shave almost $5 million of his $7.25 million salary off our luxury tax figure.

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