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Thread: 2011 Salary Cap

  1. #1
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    2011 Salary Cap

    The state of the salary cap has arisen once again so I thought that I would go through a simple blow-by-blow of the structure. Feel free to disagree or offer alternatives where necessary. Right or wrong it seemed like a helpful guide to have in mind heading towards the offseason.

    Revenue sharing/other expenses:
    Total: $10.5M

    Guaranteed contracts:
    Note: The average annual value (AAV) of the contract counts towards the cap, not the particular value in any given year. It also includes the value of major league contracts given to minor league players.
    Beckett $17M
    Lackey 16.5
    Drew 14
    Youkillis 10.28
    Cameron 7.75
    Pedroia 6.75
    Dice-K 6.5
    Scutaro 6.25
    Lester 6.0
    Wakefield 2.5
    Iglesias 2.06
    Tazawa 1.1

    Total: $96.7M


    Minimum salaries (Club controlled)
    Note: I've included club-controlled players from the current roster most likely to return.
    Atchison
    Bard
    Buchholz
    Doubront
    Lowrie
    McDonald

    Total: $3.0M (est)

    Arbitration Eligible
    Note: Okajima is eligible but I do not believe he will return.
    Paplebon $11M
    Ellsbury $2M
    Salty $0.6M

    Total: $13.6M (est)


    Options
    Ortiz $12.5M/no buyout
    Hall $9.25M/$0.5M buyout

    Total: $0.5M


    Free Agents
    Beltre
    Cash
    Hill
    Lowell
    Lopez
    V-Mart
    Varitek


    Others
    Anderson
    Bates
    Bowden
    Brown, Dusty
    Coello
    Fox
    Kalish
    Manuel
    Nava
    Navarro
    Okajima
    Patterson
    Ramon A Ramirez


    Grand total: $124.3M (est)

  2. #2
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    It's painful seeing Beckett at the top of the list with a $17M salary. With $124.3M already committed in salary I would think that the Sox would be in the market to spend up to $40M-$50M next season.

  3. #3
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    Agreed Pedroia.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pedroia_MVP View Post
    It's painful seeing Beckett at the top of the list with a $17M salary. With $124.3M already committed in salary I would think that the Sox would be in the market to spend up to $40M-$50M next season.
    Just to be clear, the $124M is an estimate. It includes best guesses for six club-controlled guys (avg $500K per) and three arb signings (bulk going to Papelbon). I'd guess it's within 2-3M of being accurate depending on Paps and how generous they get with the kids.

    The biggest change to that could be deciding to trade Papelbon. If they did that then the likely relief corps would drop several $Mil.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedSoxtober View Post
    Just to be clear, the $124M is an estimate. It includes best guesses for six club-controlled guys (avg $500K per) and three arb signings (bulk going to Papelbon). I'd guess it's within 2-3M of being accurate depending on Paps and how generous they get with the kids.

    The biggest change to that could be deciding to trade Papelbon. If they did that then the likely relief corps would drop several $Mil.
    Sure, I saw the (est) at the bottom. It seems to be pretty accurate though.

  6. #6
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    Bard is absolutely ready to close. He probably had the zenith in high pressure innings this year, more than most pigeon bounded 9th inning only wonders.
    Last edited by Station 13; 09-30-2010 at 05:31 PM.

  7. #7
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    Bard's more valuable in his current role. Pedroia, I don't know how likely the Front Office is to reach a $160M salary again. I had the impression that it was an outlier.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pittz View Post
    Bard's more valuable in his current role. Pedroia, I don't know how likely the Front Office is to reach a $160M salary again. I had the impression that it was an outlier.
    Yeah, I don't know. I said 'up to' though because you never really know. It wouldn't surprise me much either way.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pittz View Post
    Bard's more valuable in his current role. Pedroia, I don't know how likely the Front Office is to reach a $160M salary again. I had the impression that it was an outlier.
    People need to understand the business side. NESN ratings were down something in the ballpark of 33 to 40% thats got to be at least a $150 million loss. They also didn't make the playoffs, tickets sales hurt there as well as NESN ratings once again and merchandise and new bandwagon fans. They're not going to raise payroll they will most likely have to lower it by 10 million next year, still keeping it high enough to field a team thats capable of winning but still you have to look at both sides. Henry lost a ton of money this year due to the lousy play and injuries.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheHughesUnit View Post
    People need to understand the business side. NESN ratings were down something in the ballpark of 33 to 40% thats got to be at least a $150 million loss. They also didn't make the playoffs, tickets sales hurt there as well as NESN ratings once again and merchandise and new bandwagon fans. They're not going to raise payroll they will most likely have to lower it by 10 million next year, still keeping it high enough to field a team thats capable of winning but still you have to look at both sides. Henry lost a ton of money this year due to the lousy play and injuries.
    Not too worried. Henry has one of the fatter wallets in terms of MLB owners. And they are not stupid enough to think it was more of an aberration than a longterm thing.

    Im expecting the payroll to be between 145-165 million, or that is the range that they are willing to spend in anyways. Either way they got what looks like 40 million to play with this offseason.
    Jackie Bradley Junior.... that is all

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheHughesUnit View Post
    People need to understand the business side. NESN ratings were down something in the ballpark of 33 to 40% thats got to be at least a $150 million loss. They also didn't make the playoffs, tickets sales hurt there as well as NESN ratings once again and merchandise and new bandwagon fans. They're not going to raise payroll they will most likely have to lower it by 10 million next year, still keeping it high enough to field a team thats capable of winning but still you have to look at both sides. Henry lost a ton of money this year due to the lousy play and injuries.
    Advertising rates do not drop by 33-40% just because ratings have dropped (and I don't recall the drop being that severe throughout the season). Since many of the advertising deals were struck much earlier the effective rates were likely still high for the majority of the season. Your estimate for the loss is far too high. The biggest impact will be on the 2011 ad rates.

    The immediate problem for them would be the advertising, ticket, concessions, and other financial compensation they missed out on by missing the playoffs. Given the "bridge period" talk I suspect they were fairly well positioned for that.

    More importantly, there is a misperception at work here (I believe). The Sox are not likely working at a loss or a break even point that the dip in revenue would cause a significant issue. For the sake of consistency they have taken a very hard line on the luxury tax issue. They intend to honor it. They are self-limiting in that way, not revenue limited.

    The salary cap for 2011 is up another 5% to $178M.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedSoxtober View Post
    Advertising rates do not drop by 33-40% just because ratings have dropped (and I don't recall the drop being that severe throughout the season). Since many of the advertising deals were struck much earlier the effective rates were likely still high for the majority of the season. Your estimate for the loss is far too high. The biggest impact will be on the 2011 ad rates.

    The immediate problem for them would be the advertising, ticket, concessions, and other financial compensation they missed out on by missing the playoffs. Given the "bridge period" talk I suspect they were fairly well positioned for that.

    More importantly, there is a misperception at work here (I believe). The Sox are not likely working at a loss or a break even point that the dip in revenue would cause a significant issue. For the sake of consistency they have taken a very hard line on the luxury tax issue. They intend to honor it. They are self-limiting in that way, not revenue limited.

    The salary cap for 2011 is up another 5% to $178M.
    Quite so. The ratings and concession sales didn't start to really dip until later in the season when the realists felt it was over.

    TV ratings were soft from the beginning however, and tailed down later. A lot of advertisers probably sign 2-5 year deals that may have clauses in them to allow a lowering of the rates if certain threshold conditions are met, and this may have happened in a few cases.

    The Red Sox brand overall is a speeding Mack Truck and only a 3-4 year period of 2nd Division finishes will really cause it major problems.

    The best way to get everything back for the average fan is make a splash in FA, and then follow it up by a very strong season. If they think CC or Werth fills the bill, then that may be what we get. Few probably really understand who Adrian Gonzalez is.

    Another interesting angle is that the Sox system is starting to bristle with players again. Sadly not at the top echelon (I don't count Kalish and Doubront as specs anymore), but just below. They may harness that for hot stove moves, or more likely make serious moves at the deadline unlike this year to prove that this may be the year. What is available and what it will cost then is only speculation at this time.

    My winter guess would be:

    Sign Beltre or VMart
    Take the year on Ortiz
    Sign Werth or CC (probably Werth) - or make deal for a LF (Ethier ?)
    Buy 2-3 RP's (use Ellsbury to gets some RP arms?)

    Deadline:

    Trade for a set-up or closer
    If Ortiz is ineffective or a 1B/3B is hurt/ineffective deal for a LaRoche type who is FA in '12. If SD is really out of it, maybe move on AGON, but it will be a pretty sized package (Kelly, Pimentel, Vitek (PTBNL), and Fuentes ?), and to extend him you'll have to drown him in cash.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 10-01-2010 at 10:20 AM.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Quite so. The ratings and concession sales didn't start to really dip until later in the season when the realists felt it was over.

    TV ratings were soft from the beginning however, and tailed down later. A lot of advertisers probably sign 2-5 year deals that may have clauses in them to allow a lowering of the rates if certain threshold conditions are met, and this may have happened in a few cases.

    The Red Sox brand overall is a speeding Mack Truck and only a 3-4 year period of 2nd Division finishes will really cause it major problems.

    The best way to get everything back for the average fan is make a splash in FA, and then follow it up by a very strong season. If they think CC or Werth fills the bill, then that may be what we get. Few probably really understand who Adrian Gonzalez is.

    Another interesting angle is that the Sox system is starting to bristle with players again. Sadly not at the top echelon (I don't count Kalish and Doubront as specs anymore), but just below. They may harness that for hot stove moves, or more likely make serious moves at the deadline unlike this year to prove that this may be the year. What is available and what it will cost then is only speculation at this time.

    My winter guess would be:

    Sign Beltre or VMart
    Take the year on Ortiz
    Sign Werth or CC (probably Werth) - or make deal for a LF (Ethier ?)
    Buy 2-3 RP's (use Ellsbury to gets some RP arms?)


    Deadline:

    Trade for a set-up or closer
    If Ortiz is ineffective or a 1B/3B is hurt/ineffective deal for a LaRoche type who is FA in '12. If SD is really out of it, maybe move on AGON, but it will be a pretty sized package (Kelly, Pimentel, Vitek (PTBNL), and Fuentes ?), and to extend him you'll have to drown him in cash.
    I think that's the most likely scenario. I wouldn't be surprised if they resigned Beltre and Vmart then signed Werth too. That would be the dream scenario right there.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by avrpatsfan View Post
    I think that's the most likely scenario. I wouldn't be surprised if they resigned Beltre and Vmart then signed Werth too. That would be the dream scenario right there.
    Well, that sure would surprise me. Those 3 guys will likely cost $45M combined next year... and the next year, and the next year, and the next year.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisKeg View Post
    Well, that sure would surprise me. Those 3 guys will likely cost $45M combined next year... and the next year, and the next year, and the next year.
    Beltre (Gold glove defense at 3B, keeps Youk at 1st, high BA and power bat)

    VMart (Has improved on his defense and a very good offensive catcher)

    Werth (High OB % with power and decent defender that can replace Drew at RF once his contract is up)

    They all bring very good value to the team. You can say let's trade for A-Gon or sign him when he becomes a FA but that means moving Youk to 3rd which will eventually shorten his career unless you plan on moving him to DH and playing one of your gold glove caliber corner IFs at DH isn't the best idea.

    Getting Werth and the emergence of Kalish all but sure makes trading Ellsbury a 100% chance. Maybe we can ship him out with Dice-K and get Ethier? Or we ship Ells and Paps this offseason to create space ($) for a DH signing, maybe Dunn?
    Last edited by AI; 10-02-2010 at 02:05 AM.

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