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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    chicago, illinois
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    The Myth of Free Agency Home Court Advantage

    There's been a long-running argument that should maximum-contract free agents like LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade opt to sign a contract with a new team instead of working up a sign-and-trade deal the players would be leaving a bunch of cash on the table.

    It's simply not true.

    It's true that players who re-sign with their old teams get bigger raises (10.5 percent) than they could by signing with a new team (8 percent). But it's really not that much money in the grand scheme. If LeBron James re-signs with Cleveland, his salary over the next five years would total $101.6 million. If he signs with the Nets, Heat, Knicks or Bulls outright for the max (with no sign-and-trade), his salary over the next five years would total $97.4 million. That's a $4.2 million difference, which is far less than what most make it out to be.

    There is the matter of the sixth year, which is a feature only incumbent teams can offer. This is how analysts can get away with saying LeBron would be leaving $30 million on the table by signing with a new team outright -- he'd lose the $4.2 million for the annual raise disparity, as well as $25.6 million in guaranteed salary for the sixth season of the deal (the 2015-16 season, in this case).

    But to say he's leaving that money on the table is to assume LeBron will make zero dollars in 2015-16 should he sign with a new team now, which is patently ridiculous. In July 2015, LeBron will be 30 years old. Rival Kobe Bryant is nearly 32, and a few months ago signed a three-year extension worth $86.2 million.

    In fact, it's a lock LeBron will have an early termination option for either 2014 or 2015 in any contract he signs this summer. And, unless the NBA really shreds the players union next summer in collective bargaining negotiations, it's almost a lock LeBron will be able to make a bigger salary by opting out when he has the chance. For a player of LeBron's reputation and age, that sixth season is a total red herring. Bosh, also young, fits the same bill. Wade is a slightly different story, as he's two years older than his friends. But I'd argue he can feel comfortable in the idea he'll make at least $10 million in 2015-16. It's not like these guys are going to fall off the planet.

    Teams do have an advantage when it comes to keeping their own players in free agency. But, like so many other things, that advantage doesn't really apply to the superstars. The home court advantage in NBA free agency isn't built to keep players like LeBron at home, and chances are that it won't.
    http://nba.fanhouse.com/2010/06/30/t...urt-advantage/

    Interesting article...... gives you a little more insight.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    1,695
    Good point. Endorsements will make up for that difference too if he signs with New York, Chicago, Nets, or Clippers. Money definitely isn't the matter with a superstar player. It just dpends on where his heart wants him to go at the end of the day.


    MJ + Allan Houston= The Good Ol' Days.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    chicago, illinois
    Posts
    12,160
    Quote Originally Posted by S-Dot View Post
    Good point. Endorsements will make up for that difference too if he signs with New York, Chicago, Nets, or Clippers. Money definitely isn't the matter with a superstar player. It just dpends on where his heart wants him to go at the end of the day.
    yea..... a lot of misconceptions

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