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  1. #1
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    Predictions: Top 5 Offensive Teams and Top 5 Defensive Teams in 2009-10 NBA Season

    2009-2010 NBA Season


    Top 5 Defensive Teams (Opponent's PPG)

    1. Boston Celtics
    2. Cleveland Cavaliers
    3. Los Angeles Lakers
    4. Charlotte Bobcats
    5. San Antonio Spurs



    Top 5 Offensive Teams (Team's PPG)

    1. Phoenix Suns
    2. Los Angeles Lakers
    3. Dallas Mavericks
    4. Orlando Magic
    5. Denver Nuggets


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  2. #2
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    dude, if you think the New York Knicks won't be in the top 5 of PPG, then I think your rankings lose all cred. Mike D'antoni...tries to win games by scoring over 100 ppg. No defense.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by swissle View Post
    dude, if you think the New York Knicks won't be in the top 5 of PPG, then I think your rankings lose all cred. Mike D'antoni...tries to win games by scoring over 100 ppg. No defense.
    there could be 8 teams avg over 100 ppg. but that is not the question.


    question is who will be top 5 in scoring overall. knicks may avg over 100 ppg, but so can 5 teams ahead of them.


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  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by swissle View Post
    dude, if you think the New York Knicks won't be in the top 5 of PPG, then I think your rankings lose all cred. Mike D'antoni...tries to win games by scoring over 100 ppg. No defense.
    Some might argue that if you think that being top 5 in ppg equates to being a top 5 offensive team, you may be losing a bit of credibility yourself.

    ------------------------------

    Offensive efficiency stats are a much better reflection of a team's true offensive caliber since pace is accounted for. Two good examples of this difference from last season would be:

    Cleveland - 13th in the league in ppg at 100.3. But would anybody seriously attempt to argue that their offense was mediocre enough to be ranked 13th in the league? Hopefully not. And if you look at their offensive efficiency rating, it's 109.7 which puts them at 4th in the league - which appropriately looks a lot more like what we actually saw from them last season.

    Golden State - 2nd in the league in points per game at 108.6, but again, I'd hope not to see anybody trying to make the case that they actually that elite of a team offensively after they managed to put together only a 29 win season. And again, if you look at their offensive efficiency rating, it's 106.6, putting them at 11th in the league which sounds a whole lot more reasonable.

    And an even better example of the same situation as GSW is... yep, you guessed it:

    New York - 4th in the league in ppg (105.2), but 17th in offensive efficiency (105.3)


    The bottom line is that the offenses of teams that play at a very fast pace tend to get overrated. Why? Because the faster pace they play at gives them more possessions per game, which leads to more scoring opportunities and, of course, more points. But if you're wondering what those offensive efficiency ratings actually mean, it's the number of points scored per 100 possessions, which means pace is not taken into consideration any longer. So while the Cavs scored 4.9 fewer points per game than the Knicks on account of playing at a much slower pace, if you look at what each team scored per 100 possessions, Cleveland scored 4.4 points more than the Knicks, meaning their offense was more efficient and effective.


    FWIW, Golden State was the fastest team in the league last season, with a pace factor of 101.0. New York was 2nd at 99.0. And Cleveland was 25th at 91.2 - and being so much slower is the main reason for those big reversals when you compare their ppg/off eff with that of GSW and NYK.

    -----------------------

    So, according to efficiency ratings, the top 10 offenses last season were:

    Code:
    RNK	Team		Pace	Off*Eff
    1	Phoenix		98.4	111.2
    2	Portland	89.2	110.7
    3	L.A. Lakers	96.9	109.8
    4	Cleveland	91.2	109.7
    5	Dallas		93.9	108.1
    6	Boston		92.7	108.1
    7	Denver		97	107.5
    8	Orlando		94.6	107.2
    9	Utah		95.6	107.1
    10	Atlanta		92	106.6
    And the top 10 defenses were:

    Code:
    RNK	Team		Pace	Def*Eff
    1	Orlando		94.6	98.9
    2	Boston		92.7	99.4
    3	Cleveland	91.2	99.4
    4	Houston		92.7	101.4
    5	L.A. Lakers	96.9	101.9
    6	San Antonio	90.4	102
    7	Charlotte	90.8	103.4
    8	Denver		97	103.5
    9	New Orleans	90	104.1
    10	Portland	89.2	104.5
    -------------------------

    By the way, all the stats I used in this post came from here and here.

  5. #5
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    Muthafrickin Bobcats baby!!!

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsams50 View Post
    Muthafrickin Bobcats baby!!!
    Offense or defense? Seems to me their trading Okafor for Chandler could hurt them on the defensive end.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by DenButsu View Post
    Offense or defense? Seems to me their trading Okafor for Chandler could hurt them on the defensive end.
    Defense, chandler is a more legit C than okafor though, he has size and athleticism something okafor lacked. chandler is also a much better shot blocker

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsams50 View Post
    Defense, chandler is a more legit C than okafor though, he has size and athleticism something okafor lacked. chandler is also a much better shot blocker
    Ok that's not true. Also I don't think Tyson Chandler is very athletic at all. Emeka is better by a good deal IMO.




  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by DenButsu View Post
    Some might argue that if you think that being top 5 in ppg equates to being a top 5 offensive team, you may be losing a bit of credibility yourself.

    ------------------------------

    Offensive efficiency stats are a much better reflection of a team's true offensive caliber since pace is accounted for. Two good examples of this difference from last season would be:

    Cleveland - 13th in the league in ppg at 100.3. But would anybody seriously attempt to argue that their offense was mediocre enough to be ranked 13th in the league? Hopefully not. And if you look at their offensive efficiency rating, it's 109.7 which puts them at 4th in the league - which appropriately looks a lot more like what we actually saw from them last season.

    Golden State - 2nd in the league in points per game at 108.6, but again, I'd hope not to see anybody trying to make the case that they actually that elite of a team offensively after they managed to put together only a 29 win season. And again, if you look at their offensive efficiency rating, it's 106.6, putting them at 11th in the league which sounds a whole lot more reasonable.

    And an even better example of the same situation as GSW is... yep, you guessed it:

    New York - 4th in the league in ppg (105.2), but 17th in offensive efficiency (105.3)


    The bottom line is that the offenses of teams that play at a very fast pace tend to get overrated. Why? Because the faster pace they play at gives them more possessions per game, which leads to more scoring opportunities and, of course, more points. But if you're wondering what those offensive efficiency ratings actually mean, it's the number of points scored per 100 possessions, which means pace is not taken into consideration any longer. So while the Cavs scored 4.9 fewer points per game than the Knicks on account of playing at a much slower pace, if you look at what each team scored per 100 possessions, Cleveland scored 4.4 points more than the Knicks, meaning their offense was more efficient and effective.


    FWIW, Golden State was the fastest team in the league last season, with a pace factor of 101.0. New York was 2nd at 99.0. And Cleveland was 25th at 91.2 - and being so much slower is the main reason for those big reversals when you compare their ppg/off eff with that of GSW and NYK.

    -----------------------

    So, according to efficiency ratings, the top 10 offenses last season were:

    Code:
    RNK	Team		Pace	Off*Eff
    1	Phoenix		98.4	111.2
    2	Portland	89.2	110.7
    3	L.A. Lakers	96.9	109.8
    4	Cleveland	91.2	109.7
    5	Dallas		93.9	108.1
    6	Boston		92.7	108.1
    7	Denver		97	107.5
    8	Orlando		94.6	107.2
    9	Utah		95.6	107.1
    10	Atlanta		92	106.6
    And the top 10 defenses were:

    Code:
    RNK	Team		Pace	Def*Eff
    1	Orlando		94.6	98.9
    2	Boston		92.7	99.4
    3	Cleveland	91.2	99.4
    4	Houston		92.7	101.4
    5	L.A. Lakers	96.9	101.9
    6	San Antonio	90.4	102
    7	Charlotte	90.8	103.4
    8	Denver		97	103.5
    9	New Orleans	90	104.1
    10	Portland	89.2	104.5
    -------------------------

    By the way, all the stats I used in this post came from here and here.
    Now that is what I call ownage.
    Quote Originally Posted by effen5 View Post
    2 years ago, this team was worth 650 million dollars. Derrick Rose has played ten games since and now this team is worth a billion dollars. Clearly, it's Tom Thibodeu.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChiSox219 View Post
    Now that is what I call ownage.
    Thanks, but not trying to "own". I just think a lot of people (including, notoriously, TV commentators who call NBA games who are supposed to be somewhat "expert" at what they do) tend to put too much stock into "easy", simplified stats that aren't as accurate of measurements of things such as, roughly speaking, "best offense", as other slightly more complicated and obscure stats are.

    It's the same thing with field goal percentage/effective fg%/true shot percentage. So for example if you look at Billups' fg% straight up, it's .420, which is fairly lowly among NBA point guards. But it really belies how efficiently he actually scores, and when you look at his TS%, which takes the impact of 3-shooting and FTs into consideration, it's .595, which is 5th among pgs, and a much better representation of where his offensive game is really at.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by ko8e24 View Post
    2009-2010 NBA Season


    Top 5 Defensive Teams (Opponent's PPG)

    1. Boston Celtics
    2. Cleveland Cavaliers
    3. Los Angeles Lakers
    4. Charlotte Bobcats
    5. San Antonio Spurs



    Top 5 Offensive Teams (Team's PPG)

    1. Phoenix Suns
    2. Los Angeles Lakers
    3. Dallas Mavericks
    4. Orlando Magic
    5. Denver Nuggets
    That is a horrible way to determine the Top 5 Offensive and Defensive teams. A better way would be to use the offensive ratings (an estimate of points produced [players] or scored [teams] per 100 possessions) and defensive ratings (an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions) to determine which teams are really the best offensive/defensive teams in the league. In which case, my rankings would look like this:

    Top 5 Offensive Teams (Team's Offensive Rating)

    1. Phoenix Suns
    2. Los Angeles Lakers
    3. Dallas Mavericks
    4. Portland Trailblazers
    5. Boston Celtics
    Honorable Mentions: Denver Nuggets, Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic


    Top 5 Defensive Teams (Team's Defensive Rating)

    1. Orlando Magic
    2. Boston Celtics
    3. Cleveland Cavaliers
    4. San Antonio Spurs
    5. Los Angeles Lakers
    Honorable Mentions: Charlotte Bobcats, New Orleans Hornets and Utah Jazz

    Super Bowl LIII: Los Angeles Rams vs Jacksonville Jaguars

  12. #12
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    Dallas will be a top 5 offensive and top 10 defensive team this year
    Dallas Mavericks
    2010 - 2011 WORLD CHAMPIONS!!!

  13. #13
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    people, is it that hard?????

    Just list the 5 teams who will average the most ppg, and the top 5 teams who will give up the least points per game. Not one time did I mention "efficiency". You guys brought that up when I wasn't even referring to it. im not even talkin about efficeincy or per 100 possessions or per 48 minutes.


    IT'S A SIMPLE QUESTION! STOP COMPLICATING THINGS!


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  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mavrix View Post
    Dallas will be a top 5 offensive and top 10 defensive team this year
    Who do you think will fall out of last season's top 10? With most of the teams there, I'm not feeling there should be all that much movement.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by ko8e24 View Post
    2009-2010 NBA Season


    Top 5 Defensive Teams (Opponent's PPG)

    1. Boston Celtics
    2. Cleveland Cavaliers
    3. Los Angeles Lakers
    4. Charlotte Bobcats
    5. San Antonio Spurs



    Top 5 Offensive Teams (Team's PPG)

    1. Phoenix Suns
    2. Los Angeles Lakers
    3. Dallas Mavericks
    4. Orlando Magic
    5. Denver Nuggets
    how do ya figure sportsfan?

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