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  1. #286
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    The reason would be because segura would bring back more value. Segura would be fine at 2nd, but defense is one of his best attributes. And his defense at shortstop s much more valuable than it is at 2nd.

    I think we have enough playable guys at 2nd who could provide similar value to segura, so if someone is willing to give up some value for him, then we should pull the trigger.
    Segura's defense is average at best. Too lazy to look it up but he is probably in 15-20 range among shortstops defensively. I agree, any decent value in return and Segura should be gone.

  2. #287
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    Depends which metrics you use to gauge defense. UZR , which less and less people seem to trust, has him graded out at average at best. Baseball Prospectus has a stat called fielding runs above average, which labels segura as one of the best defenders at short the last 3 years.

    No defensive metric is perfect in baseball. Realistically, there's no perfect stat in general, but defensive metrics are especially volatile. How can anyone with 100% certainty say that X player got to a ball that Y player wouldn't have. But either way, the truth is that he's at least average, if not better. I don't think it would be out of the question to find multiple teams who view him as plus defender at short.

    And while segura is not a good hitter, anyone who follows MLB or even plays fantasy baseball knows how miserable offensive output from shortstop has been lately. There's been a recent influx of hopefully more talented offensive shortstops into the upper minors and as rookies last year, but there's still quite a few bad offensive shortstops. So being a bad hitter doesn't really kill his value, especially since he provides value ion the bases and on defense. He's likely an upgrade currently for the white sox and San Diego. He could probably start for he twins. And even teams like Toronto have been rumored to check in, where he'll start at 2nd while travis rehabs, then likely is insurance at short for Tulo, who's likely to get hurt and at the very least will likely need some fielding days off.
    Last edited by crewfan13; 12-31-2015 at 05:07 PM.

  3. #288
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    Here is my preseason top 25 prospects
    1. Orlando Arcia I would wait until 2017 to bring him up, probably around May 2017 to stretch out his years in Milwaukee before free agency.
    2. Brett Phillips If nothing works out in center I would give him a shot at some point this year.
    3. Jorge Lopez September calll-up, and rotation 2017
    4. Josh Hader Wowed at the AFL, could be ready next year.
    5. Trent Clark Has a while but great tools, I expect him to be a top 20 mlb prospect with-in a year and a half.
    6. Devin Williams Will be a top 100 prospect next year at this time.
    7. Kodi Mederios I'm still pretty high on him, but he needs to show better accuracy.
    8. Isan Diaz Could easily be top 100 at the preseason rankings with a good start
    9. Gilbert Lara Wasn't bad needs to develop a better eye.
    10. Monte Harrison Wasn't ready for A ball last year, will be this year.
    11. Jacob Gatewood Same as Harrison, needs to cut down strikeouts.
    12. Demi Orimoloye Probably the most intriguing prospect in the system, could easily be a top 20 prospect in the league in a couple of years.
    13. Tyrone Taylor I'm not sure what to make of him, he didn't impress last year but is still young.
    14. Clint Coulter If he can hit more over say .270 he could jump up the list a bunch.
    15. Kyle Davies I think he will be a safe 4/5 pitcher for a while, will get his chance to beat out Anderson or take over when the 1st injury occurs.
    16. Cody Ponce Good stuff, I would like to see him for a year before I boost him into the top 10.
    17. Marcos Diplan Reminds me of a smaller Jorge Lopez 2ish years ago.
    18. Michael Reed Will be a good 4th OF next year and beyond
    19. Adrian Houser Kind of the forgotten pitcher but has the stuff to be a #3 down the road.
    20. Rymer Liriano I'd like to see him get a shot a center this year, great tools.
    21. Victor Roache Power and discipline, probably needs to cut down on his swing with 2 strikes.
    22. Yadial Rivera Defense should get him a shot at some point this season.
    23. Garrin Cecchini 2 years ago I thought he'd be a sure fire All-Star down the road, might get a shot at 3rd.
    24. Javier Betancourt Young, needs to develop.
    25. Miguel Diaz Power arm, needs a couple years.

    These rankings are a little more based on the players ceilings than there floor, than I normally would do.

    Domingo Santana and Wei-Chung Wang aren't prospects any more by the definition, although I'd put Santana at 5 and Wang might sneak into the top 25.

    I left Nathan Kirby off because of his injury and Taylor Williams until we see what he looks like coming off his.

    Keon Broxton and the 3 guys we got for Lind all could have made the list as well.

  4. #289
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay87shot View Post
    Here is my preseason top 25 prospects
    1. Orlando Arcia I would wait until 2017 to bring him up, probably around May 2017 to stretch out his years in Milwaukee before free agency.
    2. Brett Phillips If nothing works out in center I would give him a shot at some point this year.
    3. Jorge Lopez September calll-up, and rotation 2017
    4. Josh Hader Wowed at the AFL, could be ready next year.
    5. Trent Clark Has a while but great tools, I expect him to be a top 20 mlb prospect with-in a year and a half.
    6. Devin Williams Will be a top 100 prospect next year at this time.
    7. Kodi Mederios I'm still pretty high on him, but he needs to show better accuracy.
    8. Isan Diaz Could easily be top 100 at the preseason rankings with a good start
    9. Gilbert Lara Wasn't bad needs to develop a better eye.
    10. Monte Harrison Wasn't ready for A ball last year, will be this year.
    11. Jacob Gatewood Same as Harrison, needs to cut down strikeouts.
    12. Demi Orimoloye Probably the most intriguing prospect in the system, could easily be a top 20 prospect in the league in a couple of years.
    13. Tyrone Taylor I'm not sure what to make of him, he didn't impress last year but is still young.
    14. Clint Coulter If he can hit more over say .270 he could jump up the list a bunch.
    15. Kyle Davies I think he will be a safe 4/5 pitcher for a while, will get his chance to beat out Anderson or take over when the 1st injury occurs.
    16. Cody Ponce Good stuff, I would like to see him for a year before I boost him into the top 10.
    17. Marcos Diplan Reminds me of a smaller Jorge Lopez 2ish years ago.
    18. Michael Reed Will be a good 4th OF next year and beyond
    19. Adrian Houser Kind of the forgotten pitcher but has the stuff to be a #3 down the road.
    20. Rymer Liriano I'd like to see him get a shot a center this year, great tools.
    21. Victor Roache Power and discipline, probably needs to cut down on his swing with 2 strikes.
    22. Yadial Rivera Defense should get him a shot at some point this season.
    23. Garrin Cecchini 2 years ago I thought he'd be a sure fire All-Star down the road, might get a shot at 3rd.
    24. Javier Betancourt Young, needs to develop.
    25. Miguel Diaz Power arm, needs a couple years.

    These rankings are a little more based on the players ceilings than there floor, than I normally would do.

    Domingo Santana and Wei-Chung Wang aren't prospects any more by the definition, although I'd put Santana at 5 and Wang might sneak into the top 25.

    I left Nathan Kirby off because of his injury and Taylor Williams until we see what he looks like coming off his.

    Keon Broxton and the 3 guys we got for Lind all could have made the list as well.
    As excited for the group of minor league prospects the Brewers have since the days when Prince, Braun, Weeks were in the minors. Some great potential with a lot of guys. I am intrigued by Demi. Dude has a shot to be an All-Star with the tools he has and he isn't in top-10 prospects.

  5. #290
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    I'll put Nottingham at 7 and Derby just misses out on the top 25. I love Demi and if he has success with the T-Rats this year I will move him up a ton. Success in Rookie ball, doesn't mean a ton always just ask Monte Harrison and Jacob Gatewood.

  6. #291
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    I'm sure most of us have seen it by now, but really nice to see that many outlets have us rated as best or at least amongst the best farm systems in baseball after the deadline.

    Some, like Jon heyman in particular, weren't overly excited about our haul for lucroy, but that still doesn't mean we don't have a loaded farm. Unfortunately, we still didn't really solve the major holes we have still in the farm, mainly corner if, but we added some good pitching depth and a young, controllable catcher who can bridge the gap for awhile.

    We are pretty heavy on OF prospects, but it's not the worst thing to have. Not all of the guys will likely turn out, and like te Cubs have shown, it's typically a good idea to load up on the best talent possible and worry about fits and moving guys if they all hit.

    We also have a ton of arms that I'm excited about. Some of them are risky and may be bullpen peices (bickford and hader come to mind), but if this trade deadline has shown anything, dominant relivers are still super valuable. Ortiz will likely never be an ace, but he's probably a high floor guy and should be a middle of the rotation starter and possibly even a two. I love ponce as well and he projects similarly. And we have some still high upside live arms that are young and have time like medioros and Williams.

  7. #292
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    There's also plenty of if talent left too in the lower minors. Isan Diaz is looking like a great get. He's still pretty far off, but is putting up very good numbers while still being pretty young compared to the league. He's definitely a guy to watch.

    I'm loving Lucas erceg as well. It's very early in his career too, but he looks like a hitter. I would love for him to continue to develop more pop, but he's looking like a bright spot in a position of relatively little depth for us. I'm interested to see where those two go from here. They are both outside the top 100, but I have to imagine they are guys who are starting to get noticed more.

    It doesn't look like we have Bryce Harper or Clayton kershaw in our org. I don't think we have an mvp bat or a cut young pitcher, but I do think we have a ton of guys who project to be very good major leaguers. Instead of having a future lineup with 2 8 WAR players and a bunch of 1-2 WAR players, I think we might be able to field a lineup with a bunch of 4-5 WAR guys and have a rotation where filled with 5 2-3 type pitchers which is sort of what you look for in baseball.

  8. #293
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    In Stearns I trust, just like Ted. How he was able to get Diaz thrown in was brilliant move. Diaz is a beast. Going to be up with team faster than people even think IMO. I think he will be up in 2018 in September. He has all the tools and tremendous pop for a young MI. I am really getting concerned with Lopez at AAA. Dude has been horrendous. I like Burgos more than most and hope he gets a start or two in September this year.

  9. #294
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    As stacked as our system is, I'm really worried about the development of our hitters. Every prospect we had hit worst than they did last year or so it seems. Do you think this is an organization thing, I'm not proposing an overhaul of our minor league coaching staffs but if you look at the guys who where here to start the year they all performed far below expectations.

    Nottingham, Phillips, Clark, Gatewood, Coulter, Lara, Harrison, Orimoloye, Taylor, Roache, Betancourt, and others where all top 30 team prospects who played below level and even guys like Diaz, Reed, and Arcia put up worse numbers than last year. The only prospect I can think of who outperformed expectations was Kyle Wren and he still isn't thought very highly of.

  10. #295
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    I think there's more to it than just looking at numbers though too. A lot of these guys had a few things working against them in a sense. First off, quite a few advanced a level, which in itself hurts. And some of the others were coming off career years.

    Take Phillips for example. Many are down on him beciase of the season he had. But while his numbers lowered and he struck out a ton, he also showed more pop than ever before and was taking a fair amount of walks. It could be a sign of him strugging, or it could be a step in turning him into a lore complete ball player.

    Reed was coming off a career year as well. Outside of last season, his average was pretty low. It regressed back down this year, but he continued to take walks. He demonstrated exactly what he is, which is an adequate defender at all 3 of positions who will take walks, work the count and steal some bases, but he's not really a high average hitter or a guy with pop. Arcia is sort of similar as well. He was coming off a career year where his offensive numbers exploded. It's disappointing to see his numbers go down, but it probably should be expected. It still doesn't diminish what he is as a player. He was always a defensive first guy who's going to rely on contact but does have some gap power.

    Diaz has a great year in a more pitcher friendly environment. The rookie league he came from is all offense. Same goes for guys like Harrison, gatewood, Clark, orimoyle and others. Those are super young, super raw players. They are going to be up and down while they learn the game. I don't think this season hurt the profile for any of those guys. They all needed a lot of work (outside of maybe Clark) and still do. But they are all 20 or under still, so there's a ton of time left.

  11. #296
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    I also think it's dangerous to house minor league stats in their own as well. Pretty much every own of the guys you mentioned is below (sometimes significantly) the average age for the league they were in. I know guys age don't matter as much in the bigs, but it's a big deal in the minors. Guys like Clark, Harrison and gatewood are a year or two removed from playing high school ball, and now they are in a league facing guys who have potentially been with a professional team for 3-5 years, or have been with a pro team for a year or two but played 3-4 years of college ball.

    That's part of the reason our farm system is rated very highly but our farm teams records aren't that great. Some teams don't have great young prospects, so their lower levels of the farm are built on college seniors who are fine baseball players, but don't have the tools to be true major leaguers.

    And the other point I'll make is that our development team may be asking some of the prospects to do something different. I don't know this for sure, but take Nottingham and Phillips for example. We may have found an issue with their swing or approach that we'd like them to change. It could be trying to get them to take more pitches, or trying to get a player to hit with more power. If we are tweaking them, it's not crazy for them to seemingly take a step back statistically while taking a step forward from a developmental standpoint. I don't know if that's true at all, but I could see that being part of the "issue."

  12. #297
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    Obviously I haven't seen much of these guys and I am really just going off of stats but it worries me that with all the talent not 1 of the top guys hit well statistically. I mean our minor league player of the year it .264. Stats don't tell everything but they are a baseline of development. It's possible that the organization made big adjustments on things like plate discipline, approach, or mechanics and we will see those gains next year. I just worry that our systems development staff is not up to par, we haven't produced an all-star quality player from our system since Escobar, Odirizzi, and Cain were shipped out for Grienke (that I can think of), which was 2010/2011.

  13. #298
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    Semantics, but I believe Khris Davis was an all star this year, but your point is still valid.

    That being said, that same minor league player of the year was also 43% better than the average hitter in low A while being almost 2 years younger than the league average. He's also vaulted himself into top 100 territory for some and is pretty close for others. So he had a really good year despite not having a frat average (which isn't a super telling stat anyway). It is concerning that we haven't home grown an all star in quite awhile, but we also gutted our farm and missed on a couple draft picks. I don't think it's time to hit the panick button on our development team yet. Pretty much every one of the top prospect quality guys we have a super young and still somewhat raw. There's going to be growing pains.

  14. #299
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    Not panicked but concerned for sure. There are at least 10 guys who have the skill set to be all-stars.

    I love Diaz, I think he is definitely a top 100 prospect and had an amazing year. Probably one of the best 2nd halves in the minors.

    Here's a quick look at my top 20 prospects in the system
    1. Brinson
    2. Hader
    3. Bickford
    4. Ortiz
    5. Ray
    6. Diaz
    7. Clark
    8. Phillips
    9. Diplan
    10. Lara
    11. Lopez
    12. D. Williams
    13. Burnes
    14. Ponce
    15. Erceg
    16. Nottingham
    17. Mederios
    18. Cordell
    19. Woodruff
    20. F. Peralta

    I saw mlb.com release new rankings today, we have 8 top 100 prospects Brinson #14. I think the only surprise in my rankings would be Ray behind the pitchers, I just think he needs more consistancy to be a top 40-50 overall (mlb had him at #27).

  15. #300
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    I've always sort of had an issue with the way MLB (and most ranking systems) rank freshly drafted players. It feels like they shouldn't be ranked until a year after they're drafted, just to give them time to prove themselves. I know a lot of them are projected based upon college, which isnt drastically different from some of the rookie leagues from a talent standpoint, but it feels like newly drafted guys are always overrated.

    It's exciting to see Ray that high on the MLB list, but that's just because their scouts loved him in the draft. I'm really excited to see what he can do in his first full season though before we get too carried away with him.

    Ortiz and bickford are interesting. Everything I've heard in bickford has been positive in Milwaukee, but there were some concerns with decline velocity at the time of the trade. He's an interesting guy to keep an eye on next year. Hopefully an offseason of rest will do him wonders. And Ortiz is pretty close to a sure thing in my mind, but in an ideal world, he's probably a really good number 3, so it's a little hard to get too excited about him.

    This goes with the Ray thing too, but I'm also jacked about erceg. I hesitate to jump too high on him, but he's a top 10 in the farm guy for me if he hits to start next year again.

    The final guy I can't wait to see that could rocket up lists is Kirby. He really hasn't pitched since he got here, but if he gets back to his sophomore year levels once his arm is healed, he could easily jump up to being one of our better arms.

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