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  1. #31
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    ^ same from me, man. haha this has actually been one of the more exciting discussions in the padre forum in a while, and i'm enjoying it. it's never been anything personal, of course, and if it seemed that way, i apologize.

    and i completely agree that the blame should fall squarely on the owner and not the statisticians he hires. it's just really convenient for, in this case, moores to hire sandy and depodesta in an effort to save as much money as possible while making a half-hearted attempt at competing. i really should have specified this more in the original post, but honestly, i doubted anyone who wasn't a padre fan/moores hater would care to read it. haha. good discussion though.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhillyLuver View Post
    So I'm not totally getting this.

    Sabermetrics is one form of moneyball, but there are other types.

    Moneyball is a broad topic, and sabermetrics is just one part of it?
    In baseball, Sabermetrics is the easiest way of implementing the Moneyball philosophy. However, Moneyball isn't only something used in baseball, it can be used in all fields. All Moneyball means is that you look for advantages other people don't notice in the market and use those advantages. In baseball, the easiest way of dong that is the use of advanced Sabermetrics, and using your own formulas to look for trends that other GM's/teams don't notice.

    There are also other things you can use, other than Sabermetrics. If in a certain era, very few runs are scored, and GM's undervalue SB's based on the era we're currently in (which become important when few runs are scored, as you need to create runs), then the "Moneyball" thing to do would be get base stealers for cheap before other teams notice how important they are to the game. If we were to revert to the pitching-dominated era of a few years ago, you may see small market teams that use "Moneyball" tactics sign base stealers who are undervalued due to the current philosophies of major league GM's.


    But Moneyball is also used outside of baseball. For example, let's say thirty medicine companies are competing. One day, one of the medicine companies, the lowest budget one, finds a drug that works the same as another drug the other 29 companies are using. They buy a whole warehouse full of that drug before the other companies realize how important it is (in baseball, that drug was OBP and then OPS, and Billy Beane got a warehouse full of those guys and made the playoffs year after year after year). The drug company gets the drug before the price goes up, and they're able to produce as much of the drug as the big-market companies, despite having a lower budget.
    Last edited by jetsfan28; 07-25-2008 at 06:20 PM.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamhead View Post
    A game of feel? Are you gonna feel a player's arm to see if he's good or not? Why not just look at their record of performance, aka their statistics.
    yes feel, this year isnt a good example but over the past few years how great has the pads pen been? outstading. outside of hoffman how many of those guys did you know of at the beginning of the year? towers has an eye for it, some guys have eyes for hitting etc etc etc. you just see a person play and you can tell just a twik here or a twik there and they have it. its your gut feeling. ive said in like 4357209 posts to you but have you ever played the game? i used to pitch and still do and as the course of the game goes on you feel your way through it. the computer doesnt know emotions yea it takes a bunch of #'s and produces a list but that list cant be the only thing you go by, you have to watch players you have to get a feel for what they can do and what their ceiling may be
    Quote Originally Posted by gkar View Post
    Why be rational when you can do this and then keep getting after a great Padre win?

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by jetsfan28 View Post
    But Moneyball is also used outside of baseball. For example, let's say thirty medicine companies are competing. One day, one of the medicine companies, the lowest budget one, finds a drug that works the same as another drug the other 29 companies are using. They buy a whole warehouse full of that drug before the other companies realize how important it is (in baseball, that drug was OBP and then OPS, and Billy Beane got a warehouse full of those guys and made the playoffs year after year after year). The drug company gets the drug before the price goes up, and they're able to produce as much of the drug as the big-market companies, despite having a lower budget.
    this has always bothered me. are we to conclude by your point that they keep making the playoffs that beane has been successful using moneyball? do you know how many playoff series the A's have won since he took over in '97? wait for it....one. he's like the marty schottenheimer of baseball: intelligent and great in the regular season.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by friarfan07 View Post
    this has always bothered me. are we to conclude by your point that they keep making the playoffs that beane has been successful using moneyball? do you know how many playoff series the A's have won since he took over in '97? wait for it....one. he's like the marty schottenheimer of baseball: intelligent and great in the regular season.
    Playoff series? You're using a 5 game sample size to determine success instead of a 1000 game sample size? Seriously? The playoffs are a crapshoot.

    yes feel, this year isnt a good example but over the past few years how great has the pads pen been? outstading. outside of hoffman how many of those guys did you know of at the beginning of the year? towers has an eye for it, some guys have eyes for hitting etc etc etc. you just see a person play and you can tell just a twik here or a twik there and they have it. its your gut feeling. ive said in like 4357209 posts to you but have you ever played the game? i used to pitch and still do and as the course of the game goes on you feel your way through it. the computer doesnt know emotions yea it takes a bunch of #'s and produces a list but that list cant be the only thing you go by, you have to watch players you have to get a feel for what they can do and what their ceiling may be
    I've played the game, but that doesn't mean I can't look at the game objectively. You might want to try that instead of going by things that have practically no effect like emotions.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamhead View Post
    I've played the game, but that doesn't mean I can't look at the game objectively. You might want to try that instead of going by things that have practically no effect like emotions.
    are you trying to say emotions have no effect on the game?
    Quote Originally Posted by gkar View Post
    Why be rational when you can do this and then keep getting after a great Padre win?

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by giles and giles View Post
    are you trying to say emotions have no effect on the game?
    Of course they have some effect, considering the game is played by humans. But like I said, it's not much effect. If you give me a ******* with a .950 OPS and a grinder with a .800, I'm taking the ******* every time.

  8. #38
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    you have no clue what your talking about, the games outcome is on emotions, thats what the game is about!
    Quote Originally Posted by gkar View Post
    Why be rational when you can do this and then keep getting after a great Padre win?

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by giles and giles View Post
    you have no clue what your talking about, the games outcome is on emotions, thats what the game is about!
    Really? I could swear the game was about scoring runs and not allowing that. How do you do that? You get players that are really, really good at baseball. How do you find out if a player is good at baseball? Statistics.

    Seems to me like you're the one that doesn't know what he's talking about and are too caught up in things that have a minimal impact in how baseball games are won, intangibles.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamhead View Post
    Really? I could swear the game was about scoring runs and not allowing that. How do you do that? You get players that are really, really good at baseball. How do you find out if a player is good at baseball? Statistics.

    Seems to me like you're the one that doesn't know what he's talking about and are too caught up in things that have a minimal impact in how baseball games are won, intangibles.
    woah hold on a second there cowboy where do i say that stats werent important? yes stats are how you narrow down players but if you have to chose between two players with similar stats it comes down to intangibles. let me ask you this, jake peavy and josh beckett both want to play for your team but you can only have one. jake peavy has a career 3.26 era and beckett a 3.76 who do you chose?
    Quote Originally Posted by gkar View Post
    Why be rational when you can do this and then keep getting after a great Padre win?

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by giles and giles View Post
    woah hold on a second there cowboy where do i say that stats werent important? yes stats are how you narrow down players but if you have to chose between two players with similar stats it comes down to intangibles. let me ask you this, jake peavy and josh beckett both want to play for your team but you can only have one. jake peavy has a career 3.26 era and beckett a 3.76 who do you chose?
    I wouldn't base it off of career numbers. I'd base it off of true talent level. Given the fact that Peavy has been superior by FIP and ERA+, that he's younger, and that he's under control for more years I'd chose Peavy to start a team with.

  12. #42
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    im not talking about starting a team im saying right now for your braves? is that your team? if they both wanted to play for your team they would both be FA's, duh.
    Quote Originally Posted by gkar View Post
    Why be rational when you can do this and then keep getting after a great Padre win?

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by giles and giles View Post
    im not talking about starting a team im saying right now for your braves? is that your team? if they both wanted to play for your team they would both be FA's, duh.
    Peavy since he's the better pitcher. And I already know what you're gonna do. You'll bring up career playoffs numbers, a small sample size, to say Peavy lacks character or something.

  14. #44
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    peavy doesnt lack character but he chokes in the playoffs. beckett DOMINATES in the post-season. the playoffs are a small sample size because thats how they are formatted. if the playoffs were a large sample size they wouldnt mean anything they mean so much because they are only a handleful of games to determine the champion and you start the season with your goal to be that champion so really the playoffs mean everything
    Quote Originally Posted by gkar View Post
    Why be rational when you can do this and then keep getting after a great Padre win?

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by giles and giles View Post
    peavy doesnt lack character but he chokes in the playoffs. beckett DOMINATES in the post-season. the playoffs are a small sample size because thats how they are formatted. if the playoffs were a large sample size they wouldnt mean anything they mean so much because they are only a handleful of games to determine the champion and you start the season with your goal to be that champion so really the playoffs mean everything
    Wow, so you can actually make the claim that Peavy is a choker after 9 innings pitched? Wow. You might want to get that head checked.

    Has Josh Beckett being very good in the postseason? Yes, but I would still take Peavy any day because he is the better pitcher.

    The playoffs are a small sample. Period. A lot of weird stuff can happen in sample sizes. It's no different than taking a random 15 games and seeing what happens.

    And are you like dumb? When you say he's a choker.....YOU'RE SAYING HE LACKS CHARACTER!
    Last edited by Seamhead; 07-27-2008 at 03:36 PM.

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