Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Results 1 to 14 of 14
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    23,520

    Drafting Big Men: The Risks and Rewards

    Big men, true big men can win you Championships. Look at what Shaq, Tim Duncan and Hakeem did for their teams. But drafting them, now thatís another story. It could be the riskiest thing an NBA GM could do. I mean, if you look at it from a historical perspective, big men take time to develop, and there are very few big men who come out of college (or who came out of high school) a polished and able contributor. Letís just take a look at top 20 picks since 2000 (excluding last year) who were PFís or Cís. Granted that narrows the field a bit, but the reality is, taking anyone outside of 20 is admitting that theyíre probably not going to contribute right away, and that they are going to take some work and polishing to become a productive NBA player. (Yes I know there are exceptions, but there are many more guys who fizzle out than pull a Carlos Boozer)

    They fall into four categories to me.
    1. The following top 20 picks have all pretty much done nothing of note except dissapoint or fizzle out of the league. (21 total players)
    Stromile Swift, Marcus Fizer, Jerome Moiso, Jameer Collier, Kwame Brown, Steven Hunter, Kirk Haston, Michael Bradley, Nickoloz Tskitishvili, Marcus Haislip, Curtis Borchardt, Mike Sweetney, Zarko Cabarkapa, Robert Swift, Rafael Araujo, Ike Diogu, Fran Vasquez, Patrick OBryant, Saer Sene, Cedric Simmons, Oleksiy Pecherov.

    2. Then there are guys picked in the top 20 who have contributed, but are either still needing a ways to go to be real forces, or are just average at best NBA players. (13 total players)
    Chris Mihm, Etan Thomas, Jamaal Magloire, Eddy Curry, Desagana Diop, Troy Murphy, Jason Collins, Brendan Haywood, Melvin Ely, Darko, Sean May, Shelden Williams, Hilton Armstrong.

    3. Then there are those guys that are above average, or have actually shown they can contribute, or have shown real signs of being quality big men.(11 players)
    Drew Gooden, Nene, Nick Collison, Andris Biedrins, Charlie Villanueva, Channing Frye, Hakim Warrick, Andrea Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas, Chris Wilcox, Zach Randolph.

    4. Then there are those guys that will be called good players. (14 Players)
    Lamarcus Aldridge, Andrew Bogut, Andrew Bynum, Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor, Al Jefferson, Bosh, Kaman, David West, Yao, Tyson Chandler, Pau, Kenyon Martin and Amare.
    And it is interesting to note that out of all these guys, the only taken outside of top 10 was West.

    Basically, my point is that big men are a gamble, there are plenty of them out there yeah, but its hard to nab one and have him develop into something good let alone great. So unless you're picking in the top 10, basically the way I see it, big men are a huge gamble, because its pretty tough to land a real diamond in the rough. Yes, you can find some quality, but for the 24 guys that have shown flashes of being quality NBA players, and guys who are average to decent NBA Players, there are 21 big men who have fizzled out and never done a thing on the NBA level.

    Take these two scouting report from http://www.nbadraft.net

    NBA Comparison: Kevin Garnett

    Strengths: Like Garnett, he has freakish athleticism. Already bulkier than Garnett and could turn into more of a Webber type post player. Very graceful running the floor. Tremendous leaping ability. Passes and handles extraordinarily well for a 6-11 player. May still be growing. Touch on shots is excellent, and should only improve. Post game is solid. Very good shot blocker.

    Weaknesses: Inconsistency. Like any 18 year old coming straight to the league will take his lumps and see plenty of pine. Some have questions about his competitiveness.
    Guess who that scouting report is forÖ.

    Give up?

    Kwame Brown.

    Take a stab at this one: (also from http://www.nbadraft.net)

    Comparison: Elton Brand (less athletic)

    Strengths: Substance over style. It doesn't look pretty but he sure gets the job done. You can tell by the way that he plays that he is a hard worker. Lost a lot of weight between his sophomore and junior seasons, and it shows. He is still carrying a little extra weight, but he carries it well (in the NBA he will likely need to continue to trim down and add more muscle). Has an amazing work ethic and hustle to his game. It's apparent with the way he runs the floor, he usually beats some of the faster guys down the court because he doesn't dilly dally around out there, and has a seemingly effortless transition from defense to offense and vice-versa. He knows his position, and lives in the painted area and around the blocks. Has great hands for a big guy, and some nice low post moves. Has decent footwork and a a nice little turnaround jumper, and his hook shot is improving. He is constantly double teamed. Is the type of big guy that guards love to play with because he sets up position in the post, and actually calls for the ball. His hands are always up, letting his guards know that he is ready for the entry pass. Never takes plays off. Always working for position, on both the offense and defensive sides of the ball. It isn't that he is slow, he is actually faster than you might think. Everybody loves big guys, especially ones with the basketball skills Sweetney has. If he were a few inches taller he would be a top 5 pick. He will play in the NBA for a very long time. He is a coaches dream because of his work ethic, and he will surely get better. Has a wonderful, unassuming approach seen in the little things such as his willingness to carry team equipment on trips.

    Weakness: Not a super run jump athlete. He isn't very explosive. This can be seen when he has the ball as well, sometimes his movement is a little methodical. However in no way is he immobile. Will be undersized at the 4 in the NBA. Although he might not be a franchise type player in the NBA, he will be a contributor for sure. With the amount of baby fat that he still has it takes him a while to get going, which limits his rebounding ability somewhat.
    Boy, he must have made it huh?

    Nope a man who is now out of a job in Mike Sweetney.

    My point is there are some big men that seem awfully attractive at draft time, but they usually end up as projects who stay projects and donít pan out to be much if anything at all. And as much as I would love to think I could be a NBA GM, this is the one part of their job I do not envy, because the draft can be so hit or miss, especially on big men. They seem so promising, they're so athletic and such, but when it comes down to it, far too often these guys are more worthwhile to pass on than pick up.
    Quote Originally Posted by Buckwheat View Post
    i don't like girls

  2. 05-13-2008, 10:00 PM
    Reason
    Racism

  3. #2
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    LA
    Posts
    44,833
    Bynum is the only guy whos fighting against all odds. He wasnt suppose to be this good.

    There was a study done about 4 years ago and it revealed that even though Bigmen do take longer to develop into their peak years the increments in their rate of improvement was rather small compared to the rest of the positions. Basically when you draft a 19-20 year old big, you basically know within the first year or 2 how good they will actually be, which is true when you think about it.

    Curry was dynamite as a rookie but as he got older his production was less impressive considering he never improved. Emeka Okafor has stayed around the same level.

    Then look at all the great centers who came into the league at a young age, they all pretty much dominated from the get go.

    About the only players who significantly improve are the ones who transform their bodies. Which is what people were expecting Sweetney to do because in all honesty he was a good player when he was on the court, he just couldnt run or play D because he was so fat. Diop is a prime example, he was about 300lbs as a rook, but slimmed down and retained a spot in this league.

    So unless they dominate college to an insane level, I wouldnt draft bigmen with my lottery pick, or else you could end up wasting countless picks like Seattle has done.
    Last edited by Chronz; 05-14-2008 at 05:06 AM.

  4. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Akron, Ohio
    Posts
    43,030
    There are risks & rewards in drafting at every position. Legit big men are just more rare, so team's are willing to take larger risks to find one.

  5. #4
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    LA
    Posts
    44,833
    Quote Originally Posted by IndiansFan337 View Post
    There are risks & rewards in drafting at every position. Legit big men are just more rare, so team's are willing to take larger risks to find one.
    Most of them end up regretting it because the rewards are too few in between. Look at the Sonics, theyve reached for a bigman in every year. About the only 2 teams to land a bigman worth drafting were the Clippers and Lakers.

  6. #5
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    11,674
    It's funny reading all these breakdowns after the fact....but I agree about this taking a big man idea....it has really been a hit or miss situation over the years especially considering the injury factors....a guy like Brad Daugherty could have been a HOFer if had it not been for his injury issues....same for Ralph Sampson...sadly Yao Ming may fit in that category....Greg Oden as well....hopefully both of those guys as well as Bynum can get healthy and have great careers....especially Yao

  7. #6
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Raised in Mt. Airy
    Posts
    30,034
    I mean, it is not really that much of a decision. I am still one that believes Portland made the right pick last year, and that dominant CENTERS (not big men in general) will win you multiple titles. The dominant power forwards need some help with them.

    So if I was on the board, and had to choose between an injury prone big man who has the potential to be very good, and a wing player who has the potential to average 32.. Give me the big man.

  8. #7
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    23,520
    Quote Originally Posted by Sixerlover View Post
    I mean, it is not really that much of a decision. I am still one that believes Portland made the right pick last year, and that dominant CENTERS (not big men in general) will win you multiple titles. The dominant power forwards need some help with them.

    So if I was on the board, and had to choose between an injury prone big man who has the potential to be very good, and a wing player who has the potential to average 32.. Give me the big man.
    I can understand that, but there have been some "sure fire" big men, especially center types who have just blown ***...esepecially in the top 10 who have sucked who are supposed to be dynamite. I just think that drafting big men is much more risky than drafting guards.
    Quote Originally Posted by Buckwheat View Post
    i don't like girls

  9. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    254
    The Kwame and Sweetney comparison is very interesting to read now. I remember the hype around Kwame and his athleticsm, but I have never seen any of it. At least with someone like Stromile you saw some highlight reel plays amongst all his blunders, but Kwame has always been just slow and inconsistent.

    Good topic. When you put all the names on the board it really brings to light the big men who have gone bad. AND I think you are being generous with guys like Mihm, Sean May, Sheldon Williams and a couple others.

    I remember that Moiso pick - shudder......

  10. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Akron, Ohio
    Posts
    43,030
    Quote Originally Posted by C-Webb View Post
    The Kwame and Sweetney comparison is very interesting to read now. I remember the hype around Kwame and his athleticsm, but I have never seen any of it. At least with someone like Stromile you saw some highlight reel plays amongst all his blunders, but Kwame has always been just slow and inconsistent.

    Good topic. When you put all the names on the board it really brings to light the big men who have gone bad. AND I think you are being generous with guys like Mihm, Sean May, Sheldon Williams and a couple others.

    I remember that Moiso pick - shudder......
    Yeah, I remember Kwame being drafted & touted as athletic. Honestly I think that he's just a big guy now, that lifted weights too much when he was a youngster. He doesn't seem athletic at all. And he also doesn't seem as if he has any offensive game whatsoever.

    He was one of the worst #1 picks ever.

  11. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Posts
    801
    I think this may be because there are a lot more factors in judging the talent of big men rather than guards. They need size, strength, some form of athleticism, etc., while with guards, they really just needs a great basketball IQ, although other things help.

    Thanks to DeeMan for designing this sig.

    Am I the only one who finds it stupid to put politics in your signature? It's not like you're gonna convince anyone.

  12. #11
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    36
    Finding a center in today's NBA is a real gamble and is hard to determine whether they are able to adjust into the NBA style of game. So many of the big me that enter the NBA draft are so overhyped and is hard to tell whether they are as good as they are being promoted. Then again, each team wants a big center in the middle ala Shaq in his prime, Tim Duncan, Alonzo Mourning type of guys. There are so many think seven footers that can't play the middle.

    Dwight Howard is slowly developing into a good player. So is Andrew Bynum.

    I think out of the guys listed in the blog, Andrew Bogut needs a better team around him and someone to work with him on his overall game. Channing Frye was on a less than mediocre Knicks team and now who knows with the Blazers. I'm sure he's in line for a break out season somewhere else. The rest of the names are guys playing out of position or their games were better suited for the college game. I forgot about most of those names on there.

  13. #12
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    12,610
    I wouldnt put Maglorie in that catagory. I mean like seven years ago he was a great player. He made the all star team once if I am not mistaken.
    Kyle Kendrick sucks.

  14. #13
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    209
    I didn't read much so if this was already said as a disadvantage, Most big men don't have long careers.

  15. #14
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    manila
    Posts
    22

    Talking

    Tyson Chandler is turning into a good player too. just needs some time to work on his game.

    The best bigmen today for me:

    Dwight Howard for defense
    Amare Stoudemaire for offense


    imagine them on one team. hehehe

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •