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But why, though? Cam is almost 32 and on the downfall. Lock can still grow, potentially. There so many other better options for Denver that don't involve Cam, looks like, to me.

Well, good on your part for sure. I thought they were going to win too, but we were in the minority is what I am arguing.

I mean, they dominated everyone's SB favorite. That's not exactly chance. It was an impressive team effort, and no doubt you could argue more impressive on the defensive front. Though at the same...

Sure, but there is quite a difference between playoff team and SB winner, is there not?

I mean, yeah, they had a talented roster. Pretty sure that is the primary reason he went there. But they...

Without Brady they are nowhere near a legit SB contender. Even with Brady, who people were labelling as washed, most were acting as if they still weren't. Guess they were wrong.

For the 2018 season, the team with the lowest rate of 3-and-outs across the league had it at 23%. Even if you think Tampa matches that, 23% is still a better chance than converting both the TD and...

:laugh2:

So it's not just that I have a reading comprehension issue, but apparently misusing words and then act like we haven't been going through all of this not only because you can't grasp a...

That's your quote. If the most optimal path for both would involve a 3-and-out, but a 3-and-out is not required for one of the cases, that makes it the deciding factor, mr. BA.

Don't bring up...

I did. After you claimed that having to defend the FG instead of a 3-and-out as the deciding factor and advantage to going for it. And, no, they are not comparable. Defending a slant on 3rd & 2 vs...

Which is what I disagreed with, in the first place. The model is clearly not perfectly built in this case, which is what I've tried over and over to argue. But at this point I'm tired, I have no...

What the BA and another poster was arguing (and then forgot he was doing it, 'cause that's the attention span of a 10-year-old) is that the higher reward in going for it should justify the big...

Not being comparable implies, by definition, that there is no major difference in difficulty between what we've discussed. Figured someone with a BA could grasp that. My bad!



Seeing how we're...

That's not how difficulty is assessed, by people's, or yours, preference. Sorry to burst that bubble to you. Simply say that you prefer, or choose to believe, that one is more difficult than the...

No, two situations are not comparable in difficulty simply because they are both possible scenarios. And if it's about preference, then it's clear they are not at all comparable. Just because you...

No, I'm not arguing that one is easier than the other. I'm saying they are not comparable. Which they're not. For someone that has said repeatedly he understands the logic behind it, you really fail...

There is no terrible logic, it's just common sense. The situational football would've called for different approaches for both teams. Ask any coach at any level of football if that's true. Hence not...

What factors have I ignored? That it's easier to get 10 yards rather than 60? Well, sure, if we go by pure math, 10 < 60. But the two aren't comparable because the situational football played by both...

None of the factors that I've previously mentioned are accounted for in the WP model, nor should they.

I've also never cited it as if it agrees with my belief. I've specifically mentioned that...

If that's the case, a FG, a 3-and-out and a TD wins then the game, so I'd say that's the real best case scenario. I know it sounds like a low-probability event, which it is, but if we're weighing...

All that Seth is saying in his tweet is that one of the biggest factors in justifying going for it is the difference between the rate of converting on a similar down league-wise and the probability...

They are saying go for it, by a 0.5% margin. I've mentioned that. Plenty. You wanted to bring other factors into it, I did too.

Yes, pass rush was a factor. They held GB to their worst pass-block...

Based on what is Rodgers more likely to score a TD on 4th & 8? Based on the previous three failed attempts to do so?

Even if he beats the odds once and scores, GB has about a 22% 2-point...

How about how that historically good RZ offense and that elite-level playing Rodgers didn't make any difference, 0, the previous 3 plays? How about the fact that their OL, according to the same ESPN...

No, he doesn't. WP difference between going for it and kicking the FG is 0.5%. At worst, like I said, it's way, way, way too small a difference either way.

In the two most likely scenarios out of three possible had they gone for it, they were going to need a 3-and-out anyway.

The best case scenario in this version of events (a low, low probability...