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Type: Posts; User: davearm

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  1. Sticky: Poll: GDT: High standard deviation is driven by outliers. ...

    High standard deviation is driven by outliers.

    The only outliers in baseball are the good kind (12, 15 run games). You can't have a -10 run game. The biggest outlier you can have on the negative...
  2. Sticky: Poll: GDT: Feast(>5)/middle(4-5)/famine(

    Feast(>5)/middle(4-5)/famine(<4) data


    tm games feast middle famine feast_p middle_p famine_p
    ARI 128 48 33 47 0.38 0.26 0.37
    ATL 129 48 43 38 0.37 0.33 0.29
    BAL 128 39 29 60 0.30 0.23 0.47...
  3. Sticky: Poll: GDT: Here's the data. Cubs' standard deviation is...

    Here's the data. Cubs' standard deviation is 19th out of 30. Better be careful what you promise.

    As we tried to tell you, the teams with the highest SD are also the teams that score the most...
  4. Sticky: Poll: GDT: Here's what I think happened: You were dead...

    Here's what I think happened:

    You were dead certain that standard deviations would prove your feast/famine theory about the Cubs.

    Then you actually computed standard deviations, and discovered...
  5. Sticky: Poll: GDT: That's my feeling as well. Threads get much...

    That's my feeling as well. Threads get much longer when things are going badly than when the Cubs are clobbering the other team.
  6. Sticky: Poll: GDT: You spent so much time a few days ago trying to...

    You spent so much time a few days ago trying to use statistics to prove this very point.

    Well, that failed miserably, and it was pointed out that the stats actually show the opposite.

    Now today...
  7. Poll: GDT: Aaron Sanchez also won an ERA title not so long...

    Aaron Sanchez also won an ERA title not so long ago.
  8. Poll: GDT: Well said. It's always funny to see the "Cubs...

    Well said.

    It's always funny to see the "Cubs should have X more wins if not for ________" posts.

    Yeah, and they won some games they probably should have lost, too.
  9. Poll: GDT: Well his career numbers include his first couple...

    Well his career numbers include his first couple years, where he was much less productive than he's been for the last 4. His wOBAs were .307 and .311 his first two years; .350 .341 .363 .357 since....
  10. Poll: GDT: I'd put it 10% park effect, 90% hot streak.

    I'd put it 10% park effect, 90% hot streak.
  11. Poll: GDT: Not unless he plays better in LF than RF. The...

    Not unless he plays better in LF than RF. The WAR positional adjustments are the same for LF and RF.
  12. Poll: GDT: My prediction is that he's about the same player...

    My prediction is that he's about the same player he's been since, let's say, 2016: .350-.360 wOBA, 120-130 wRC+.
  13. Poll: GDT: How is it used colloquially? What is the...

    How is it used colloquially?

    What is the difference in meaning between "perennial top 5 player" and just plain "top 5 player"?

    Surely there's a reason to put that extra word in there. I...
  14. Poll: GDT: It's semantics at this point, but "perennial" top...

    It's semantics at this point, but "perennial" top 5 player means usually in top 5, to my way of thinking anyway.

    And with that definition only one player clears the bar (Trout).

    FWIW, count of...
  15. Poll: GDT: The stabilization question absolutely was...

    The stabilization question absolutely was answered.
  16. Poll: GDT: Not if "perennial top 5" player/hitter is taken...

    Not if "perennial top 5" player/hitter is taken to mean a player that finishes in the top 5 most years.
  17. Poll: GDT: Before Bibbs asks, fWAR ranks for Bryant: 2015...

    Before Bibbs asks, fWAR ranks for Bryant:

    2015 9
    2016 3
    2017 6
    2018 110
    2019 14
  18. Poll: GDT: Used in this context, perennial means every year....

    Used in this context, perennial means every year. So it seems to me that if we're arguing over the phrase "perennial top 5", then we have to look at individual year rankings, not rankings spanning...
  19. Poll: GDT: Well RISP isn't a stat. BA with RISP will...

    Well RISP isn't a stat.

    BA with RISP will stabilize at whatever PAs the chart says.
    SLG with RISP will stabilize at whatever PAs the chart says, etc.
  20. Poll: GDT: Just yesterday I was monkeying around with some...

    Just yesterday I was monkeying around with some of the pitcher data, and created a table of the % of PAs that end with a BIP. The dataset I built included every player that has thrown a pitch...
  21. Poll: GDT: Well it depends on which statistic you're talking...

    Well it depends on which statistic you're talking about. They all normalize at different sample sizes.



    https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

    Article is from 2010. There...
  22. Poll: GDT: Don't say stupid things and you have nothing to...

    Don't say stupid things and you have nothing to worry about.

    Or put me on ignore.

    Lots of options for you here.
  23. Replies
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    Sticky: It'd be great to have Castellanos back, but...

    It'd be great to have Castellanos back, but overall, that'd be a very disappointing offseason.

    Zero external improvements, several un-replaced departures (Zo Hamels Cishek Kintzler Strop etc),...
  24. Poll: GDT: Yes, in fact you did.

    Yes, in fact you did.
  25. Poll: GDT: Just because it's as big as it can get doesn't...

    Just because it's as big as it can get doesn't mean it isn't small. Really weird logic here.
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