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Type: Posts; User: davearm

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  1. GDT: Presented without comment: 1173039089408303104

    Presented without comment:

    1173039089408303104
  2. GDT: FWIW, in 10,000 simulations, here are the...

    FWIW, in 10,000 simulations, here are the frequencies of the various tie outcomes:


    Teams NLC WC1 WC2 NLC WC1 WC2
    1 86728 84006 73555 86.7% 84.0% 73.6%
    2 11732 13458 23256 11.7% 13.5% 23.3%...
  3. GDT: Well that's a different question. Both the Cubs...

    Well that's a different question. Both the Cubs and the Brewers have poor odds to win the division. The Cubs' chances are a little higher, because of all the HTH games with the team they're...
  4. GDT: I didn't say I don't think the Brewers will get...

    I didn't say I don't think the Brewers will get in. I said I don't think they'll win the division. Wildcard is a different story.

    I'm basing that off of what the various simulation models are...
  5. GDT: Not sure you want to bench Nico or Zobrist. They...

    Not sure you want to bench Nico or Zobrist. They both have huge numbers this month.
    Nico .351/.400/.568
    Zo .378/.452/.514

    Losing Baez hasn't been an issue (thus far).
  6. GDT: I think the Brewers winning the division is a...

    I think the Brewers winning the division is a longshot.
  7. GDT: Not sure what you're telling me no about. ...

    Not sure what you're telling me no about.

    There's a huge difference between winning the division and being a wildcard.

    If you're a wildcard, the best case is you have to go play the Dodgers,...
  8. GDT: Not a waste of time at all when the stakes are,...

    Not a waste of time at all when the stakes are, one team goes against the Braves, one goes against the Dodgers, and one goes home. Definitely seems like the sort of thing you'd want to resolve on...
  9. Sticky: Difficult to imagine the Cubs are the first to...

    Difficult to imagine the Cubs are the first to try to recruit this guy.
  10. GDT: Can't imagine the bolded would happen. They...

    Can't imagine the bolded would happen. They would surely have to play off for the division in any tie situation. There's a big advantage to being the division champ vs. a WC (obviously).
  11. GDT: If either of you guys would like to make a...

    If either of you guys would like to make a charity bet on the Brewers winning the division, I'll take that action.
  12. GDT: The Reds are more equivalent to a team like the...

    The Reds are more equivalent to a team like the Eagles or Titans in the NFL. Neither good nor bad, just average, not a playoff contender, but capable of upsetting better teams on any given day.
  13. GDT: Better than 2 runs is certainly possible. ...

    Better than 2 runs is certainly possible.

    Better than it's been the last week, not possible.
  14. GDT: How was sonny Gray so bad in New York?

    How was sonny Gray so bad in New York?
  15. GDT: The 5/100 part is just sorta whatever. Seems...

    The 5/100 part is just sorta whatever. Seems high but who knows.

    The part about him doubling his value in two months is the wacko part.
  16. GDT: FWIW, I was just updating the rest-of-season sim...

    FWIW, I was just updating the rest-of-season sim model I cooked up last week. Here are a fresh batch of probabilities.


    ROS Wins Prob NLC WC1 WC2 Playoffs
    0 82 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%...
  17. GDT: The service time thing probably resolves itself...

    The service time thing probably resolves itself in the Cubs' favor anyway. Baez Russell Happ Schwarber have all had extended stretches in the minors, well after their MLB debut. Soler did too...
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    GDT: It would sorta be a fitting final chapter to this...

    It would sorta be a fitting final chapter to this season if the Cubs were to go like 2-6 against the Pirates and Reds.
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    GDT: You shouldn't be fine with either. The path to...

    You shouldn't be fine with either. The path to the WS is much harder as a WC every year, and even more so this year.
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    GDT: So this is what an Orioles Yankees game looks like

    So this is what an Orioles Yankees game looks like
  21. Replies
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    GDT: Someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but...

    Someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but Lester's been on the ropes in all of those games.

    IIRC he escaped three bases loaded innings in one of those "better" starts. Mariners I think.
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    GDT: A week ago we were so close to having legit guys...

    A week ago we were so close to having legit guys in all 8 lineup spots. Rats.
  23. GDT: It could be worse. 2012 Red Sox: last place...

    It could be worse.

    2012 Red Sox: last place
    2013 Red Sox: first place, won WS
    2014 Red Sox: last place
    2015 Red Sox: last place
    2016 Red Sox: first place, didn't win a single game in the...
  24. GDT: It's what made 2015 such an amazing season. All...

    It's what made 2015 such an amazing season. All most of us wanted was for the Bryant/Baez/Schwarber/Russell wave to not crap the bed, and give us something to look ahead to. They blew that out of...
  25. GDT: Two? What's the other one? Thought it was the...

    Two? What's the other one?

    Thought it was the CB that Kimbrel taught him a few weeks ago.
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