Updated mock for NFL Draft

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02-24-2021, 10:48 AM
QB_Eagles

Quote:

Originally Posted by warfelg

Little confused as to what your point is here.

The point is that I'm much more willing to draft a QB high than a RB, even if the QB is expected to be a backup. Both Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts were drafted 53rd overall. I think Hurts was the better pick, but the problem with arguing that is a lot of Eagles fans are also PSU fans who vastly overrate Sanders. Drafting a RB high only really makes sense when you're already a contender, like for example Sony Michel helped the Patriots in their 2019 SB run*. But I think right now they'd rather have drafted a backup QB in that spot, such as Lamar Jackson. Many fans actually agree with trying to find a good RB in the later rounds or as an UDFA, but they don't apply the same considerations for positional value when it comes to (backup) QB. In addition, even if a QB rides the bench for 3 years, they actually maintain their value unlike a starting RB. Compare Jimmy Garoppolo and Leonard Fournette.

EDIT: *) 2018 season
02-24-2021, 10:53 AM
Tg11

Imagine if Hurts has a good season this upcoming season then all of you Eagles fans will have to eat crow and if that happens I personally can't wait
02-24-2021, 11:01 AM
last stand

Quote:

Originally Posted by warfelg

I'll say now what I said then:

Drafting a QB in the 2nd because of wanting better depth isn't stupid, but it is when you have other issues.
Drafting a QB that can be a gadget guy isn't stupid, but it is when you do it in the 2nd round.
Drafting a QB because you have regrets of passing on another guy is stupid.

If Roseman just said parts one and two of that: We needed to make sure that we had depth and we can make a role for him...ok I can get that. But when the part of regretting passing on Wilson is added and it happens in the second round, it becomes a mistake IMO. Especially when you add in his head scratching (to me) wanting to be a QB factory comment. So now he's saying he wants to use high picks, use roster spots, and spend coaching time developing a player you hope to flip for a higher pick in 3-4 years? Huh? Why not use the pick to develop a player who can start for you in 3-4 years.

A quick look at this under Roseman:
2010 4th - Mike Kafka. Kam Chancellor was a All-Pro drafted near him, but his Seattle role was perfect so I won't give Roseman too much crap. But....Kafka never developed.

(Break here to mock Danny Watkins in the 1st with Cam Jordan, Mo Wilkerson, Cam Heyward all on the board)

2012 3rd Nick Foles. Interesting case here. Didn't really develop under Andy, did under Chip, traded, bombed, almost retired, back and did well, bombing somewhat again. Don't faulting the pick, but it's an odd trajectory.

2013 4th Matt Barkley. Did nothing.

2016 1st Wentz. We all know this debate.

2019 5th Clayton Thorston. Honestly don't know if he's even in the NFL.

2020 2nd Jalen Hurts. :shrug:

To me this whole thing is head scratching like I said. He's taken a good number of QB's (a lot like BB), but much of his reasoning for doing so (regrets, "QB factory", gadget player) falls kinda flat.

I’m on the fence about the pick. But it was more of a reaction to wentz going out in the Seattle game than it was to anything else

Eagles got caught empty handed in that scenario. They weren’t happy about it. Caplan and florio both have said backup QB is considered a top 15 player on the roster to Philadelphia

So whether you agree with it or not. The eagles do view backup QB as a starting level player.

I personally believe the eagles felt if they had jalen hurts against the Seahawks in 2019 they win that game. Obviously having nick foles proved beneficial in 2017 and 2018

I think disagreeing with the philosophy is more appropriate than disagreeing with the pick

If your philosophy is that it’s a top 15 player on the roster and you think you have a deficiency there why wouldn’t you draft one in the 2nd round?
02-24-2021, 11:40 AM
QB_Eagles

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tg11

Imagine if Hurts has a good season this upcoming season then all of you Eagles fans will have to eat crow and if that happens I personally can't wait

What would Trey Lance be worth in 2022 if he spent the 2021 season on the Eagles bench? Probably at least a mid-late 1st round pick.
02-24-2021, 12:20 PM
koldjerky

Updated mock for NFL Draft

Quote:

Originally Posted by QB_Eagles

What would Trey Lance be worth in 2022 if he spent the 2021 season on the Eagles bench? Probably at least a mid-late 1st round pick.

Has there been a backup QB who played minimal to no snaps netted a minimal value depreciation in a trade?

I think it’s perceived value it just rarely happens.

EDIT: Brett Fabre back in 92. I guess you can argue Jimmy G.

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02-24-2021, 12:29 PM
BDawk4Prez

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tg11

Imagine if Hurts has a good season this upcoming season then all of you Eagles fans will have to eat crow and if that happens I personally can't wait

Oh no, I would be so upset if the Eagles were good.
02-24-2021, 12:34 PM
last stand

Quote:

Originally Posted by koldjerky

Has there been a backup QB who played minimal to no snaps netted a minimal value depreciation in a trade?

I think it’s perceived value it just rarely happens.

EDIT: Brett Fabre back in 92. I guess you can argue Jimmy G.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It would depend on the final QB class which is a gamble. But I think it’d be pretty surprising on the value we could get if it’s a perceived bad QB class lol.

Gamble of all gambles. Lance is considered a top 10 player this year in a decent QB class. He’s considered anywhere from 2-4 of the main guys

6-4, can run, canon arm

IF and as of right now it’s nothing more than an if, hurts plays outstanding next season, and lance sits no one is going to assume it’s because lance sucks. And IF the 2022 QB is underwhelming there’s no way a QB needy team isn’t giving us a pick in the 12-16 range for lance with likely other picks. Imagine a team like the Vikings for example if their picking in the mid teens with cousins winding down. Why wouldn’t they trade for lance in a weak class?
02-24-2021, 12:34 PM
last stand

Quote:

Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez

Oh no, I would be so upset if the Eagles were good.

You’d be upset if the eagles are good? Lol huh?
02-24-2021, 12:48 PM
koldjerky

Quote:

Originally Posted by last stand

It would depend on the final QB class which is a gamble. But I think it’d be pretty surprising on the value we could get if it’s a perceived bad QB class lol.

Gamble of all gambles. Lance is considered a top 10 player this year in a decent QB class. He’s considered anywhere from 2-4 of the main guys

6-4, can run, canon arm

IF and as of right now it’s nothing more than an if, hurts plays outstanding next season, and lance sits no one is going to assume it’s because lance sucks. And IF the 2022 QB is underwhelming there’s no way a QB needy team isn’t giving us a pick in the 12-16 range for lance with likely other picks. Imagine a team like the Vikings for example if their picking in the mid teens with cousins winding down. Why wouldn’t they trade for lance in a weak class?

Ok but are they giving you more than the 12-16th overall pick?

So the idea is to draft a QB at 6 hypothetically and have him compete with Hurts for starting QB/possible franchise guy. If either one gets beat out they ride the bench (so a 2020 2nd rounder or a 2021 6th overall). The idea is then they would get traded this next offseason.

So Hurts gets traded for what a 2nd rounder maybe? You are getting roughly the same value you used in 2019. You just delayed the benefits.

So #6 gets traded and you get what the 12th to16th overall the next year? You lose value.

I think the only way it makes sense to draft a QB at #6 and to utilize him in the above scenario is IF you value more players in the 2022 draft than you do the 2021. But still I think you can get the same, if not more value, by trading back during the draft.

I can understand the logic of the competition but if you’re passing up better player at #6 just to see what you can recoup in 2022 seems stupid to me

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02-24-2021, 01:12 PM
last stand

Quote:

Originally Posted by koldjerky

Ok but are they giving you more than the 12-16th overall pick?

So the idea is to draft a QB at 6 hypothetically and have him compete with Hurts for starting QB/possible franchise guy. If either one gets beat out they ride the bench (so a 2020 2nd rounder or a 2021 6th overall). The idea is then they would get traded this next offseason.

So Hurts gets traded for what a 2nd rounder maybe? You are getting roughly the same value you used in 2019. You just delayed the benefits.

So #6 gets traded and you get what the 12th to16th overall the next year? You lose value.

I think the only way it makes sense to draft a QB at #6 and to utilize him in the above scenario is IF you value more players in the 2022 draft than you do the 2021. But still I think you can get the same, if not more value, by trading back during the draft.

I can understand the logic of the competition but if you’re passing up better player at #6 just to see what you can recoup in 2022 seems stupid to me

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Well that’s where valuation comes into play. I don’t believe in taking a QB unless he’s at the top of your board.

So to me if I were GM and QB was the best player on my board I’d take him. If not I wouldn’t.

And it’s I guess moreso long term thinking in a way. If you consider 2021 a wash. At best we’re competing for playoffs in the worst division. That’s the top out in 2021. Then you could argue getting QB right AND being able to recuperate the assets in 2022 is long term building

It means going into 2022 you have your QB solidified, and you have potentially 3 first rounders, or 2 1st rounders and 2nd rounders, and possibly more

It’s all a gamble. The worst case scenario would be jalen loses the QB battle or gets hurt and you’re not really in a position to get that value back unless in the most convoluted way imaginable jalen wins job, plays amazing, gets an injury that’s not a long term concern, 1st round pick comes in and plays really well as well

Then you’re doing great lol
02-24-2021, 01:27 PM
QB_Eagles

Quote:

Originally Posted by koldjerky

Ok but are they giving you more than the 12-16th overall pick?

So the idea is to draft a QB at 6 hypothetically and have him compete with Hurts for starting QB/possible franchise guy. If either one gets beat out they ride the bench (so a 2020 2nd rounder or a 2021 6th overall). The idea is then they would get traded this next offseason.

So Hurts gets traded for what a 2nd rounder maybe? You are getting roughly the same value you used in 2019. You just delayed the benefits.

So #6 gets traded and you get what the 12th to16th overall the next year? You lose value.

I think the only way it makes sense to draft a QB at #6 and to utilize him in the above scenario is IF you value more players in the 2022 draft than you do the 2021. But still I think you can get the same, if not more value, by trading back during the draft.

I can understand the logic of the competition but if you’re passing up better player at #6 just to see what you can recoup in 2022 seems stupid to me

Yeah, it would be a loss in value, but you have to consider what that buys you: a year to evaluate a blue chip QB. It's pretty rare to be in this positions and I wouldn't pass on it.

When the owner says 2021 will be a "transition year", why not evaluate two QBs at once?

By the way, I would name Hurts the starter and tell him if he plays well, the rookie QB will be traded after the year. Just for some extra motivation.

Yet the new coaching staff won't have a horse in this race, so they should be able to approach it without bias.

The rest of the team will be bad-mediocre except for the OL most likely, so it should be a good showcase, especially when it comes to passing ability.
02-24-2021, 01:40 PM
last stand

This is also a strange top 10 in that it’s arguable the top 4 QBs are on par with or better prospects than the other 6 players

I like both WRs. But neither are julio Jones can’t miss prospects. Both are a tad undersized, chase is the better overall athlete, smith is faster better route runner

Pitts is the best athletic prospect

But it’s hard to argue against any of the QBs in terms of prospects compared to the other guys and if you’re going BPA then you’re likely looking QB
02-24-2021, 01:41 PM
manbearchef

Quote:

Originally Posted by last stand

It would depend on the final QB class which is a gamble. But I think it’d be pretty surprising on the value we could get if it’s a perceived bad QB class lol.

Gamble of all gambles. Lance is considered a top 10 player this year in a decent QB class. He’s considered anywhere from 2-4 of the main guys

6-4, can run, canon arm

IF and as of right now it’s nothing more than an if, hurts plays outstanding next season, and lance sits no one is going to assume it’s because lance sucks. And IF the 2022 QB is underwhelming there’s no way a QB needy team isn’t giving us a pick in the 12-16 range for lance with likely other picks. Imagine a team like the Vikings for example if their picking in the mid teens with cousins winding down. Why wouldn’t they trade for lance in a weak class?

Lance is a top 10 DRAFT PROJECTION, definitely not a top 10 prospect. I love his potential and if Carolina doesn't trade for someone or trade up for Wilson, I'd love to see him fall to 8, but he's got major bust potential. One year wonder from a middle of nowhere school where his college was the Alabama/Clemson of their conference. He could be epically bad or could be the next Mahomes.

Spot on about the 2022 class. Anyone who doesn't have a franchise QB or potential franchise QB this year is gonna be pretty sad when they see the 2022 class, unless a Cam/Burrow out of nowhere situation happens.
02-24-2021, 01:51 PM
last stand

Quote:

Originally Posted by manbearchef

Lance is a top 10 DRAFT PROJECTION, definitely not a top 10 prospect. I love his potential and if Carolina doesn't trade for someone or trade up for Wilson, I'd love to see him fall to 8, but he's got major bust potential. One year wonder from a middle of nowhere school where his college was the Alabama/Clemson of their conference. He could be epically bad or could be the next Mahomes.

Spot on about the 2022 class. Anyone who doesn't have a franchise QB or potential franchise QB this year is gonna be pretty sad when they see the 2022 class, unless a Cam/Burrow out of nowhere situation happens.

Lance will be a top 10 prospect when all is said and done. Had there been a combine he would’ve leaped. He’s a physical marvel. I think people would’ve seen him and he would’ve shot up the boards. Especially with reports that he’s an all star of a guy. Intangibles, smarts the whole thing

Teams tend to ignore “bust” potential in the process

They just see the boom potential. I’d argue he’ll supplant Justin fields and may challenge Zach Wilson once pro days happen

Lances ball leaps off his hand, he’s 6-4 with size. Looks about 230lbs already and when he inevitably runs a good 40. And I mean good for his size. Like 4.6 or 4.7 he’s gonna leap up boards real fast

He already looks like an nfl QB physically

Also about 2022 there will be 1 guy who leaps up boards but as of now it’s a brutal QB class.

2023 I think is the one where the Clemson guy can come out and I think Bryce young as well who people like a lot
02-24-2021, 01:58 PM
manbearchef

Quote:

Originally Posted by last stand

It would depend on the final QB class which is a gamble. But I think it’d be pretty surprising on the value we could get if it’s a perceived bad QB class lol.

Gamble of all gambles. Lance is considered a top 10 player this year in a decent QB class. He’s considered anywhere from 2-4 of the main guys

6-4, can run, canon arm

IF and as of right now it’s nothing more than an if, hurts plays outstanding next season, and lance sits no one is going to assume it’s because lance sucks. And IF the 2022 QB is underwhelming there’s no way a QB needy team isn’t giving us a pick in the 12-16 range for lance with likely other picks. Imagine a team like the Vikings for example if their picking in the mid teens with cousins winding down. Why wouldn’t they trade for lance in a weak class?

Quote:

Originally Posted by last stand

Lance will be a top 10 prospect when all is said and done. Had there been a combine he would’ve leaped. He’s a physical marvel. I think people would’ve seen him and he would’ve shot up the boards. Especially with reports that he’s an all star of a guy. Intangibles, smarts the whole thing

Teams tend to ignore “bust” potential in the process

They just see the boom potential. I’d argue he’ll supplant Justin fields and may challenge Zach Wilson once pro days happen

Lances ball leaps off his hand, he’s 6-4 with size. Looks about 230lbs already and when he inevitably runs a good 40. And I mean good for his size. Like 4.6 or 4.7 he’s gonna leap up boards real fast

He already looks like an nfl QB physically

Also about 2022 there will be 1 guy who leaps up boards but as of now it’s a brutal QB class.

2023 I think is the one where the Clemson guy can come out and I think Bryce young as well who people like a lot

I'm saying that in vacuum he's not a top 10 prospect in this class. He might end up being a top 10 PLAYER after the draft, but he's literally being projected top 10 entirely based on his raw potential. A great combine wouldn't help him much since it's expected; that said, a bad combine would drop him at least 10 picks.

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