Updated mock for NFL Draft

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Originally Posted by last stand

You’d be upset if the eagles are good? Lol huh?

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That was sarcasm.

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Originally Posted by manbearchef

I'm saying that in vacuum he's not a top 10 prospect in this class. He might end up being a top 10 PLAYER after the draft, but he's literally being projected top 10 entirely based on his raw potential. A great combine wouldn't help him much since it's expected; that said, a bad combine would drop him at least 10 picks.

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No I know. But the word prospect implies potential since none of them are sure things. And if we’re talking prospects I do think a combine and interview process could make him top 10 on peoples boards not just a top 10 draft pick but a top 10 player. Who’s going ahead of him player wise?

In no particular order

Lawrence
Chase
Pitts
Smith
Wilson
Fields
Sewell

And then who? There’s 3 slots left. Parsons? I mean I don’t see who’s a clear cut top 10 player in the draft over lance with 3 slots left

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Originally Posted by last stand

No I know. But the word prospect implies potential since none of them are sure things. And if we’re talking prospects I do think a combine and interview process could make him top 10 on peoples boards not just a top 10 draft pick but a top 10 player. Who’s going ahead of him player wise?

In no particular order

Lawrence
Chase
Pitts
Smith
Wilson
Fields
Sewell

And then who? There’s 3 slots left. Parsons? I mean I don’t see who’s a clear cut top 10 player in the draft over lance with 3 slots left

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But you're looking at his potential rather than his most likely case. Obviously every player has potential and could also bust, but he's literally one of the least safe prospects in this draft. He's probably not in the top 50 prospects, he's literally just a physically gifted player who happens to also play the most important position.

The level of competition he played (and played on a superior team) makes it extremely hard to argue he's a top prospect. If I'm making a top XX prospect list, I can't reasonably assume Lance will succeed compared to all the other players who've proven themselves against real competition.

Again, I love his potential and would grab him in a heartbeat, but if you don't trust your coaches to bring him in slowly and develop him, he's got bust written all over him.

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Originally Posted by manbearchef

But you're looking at his potential rather than his most likely case. Obviously every player has potential and could also bust, but he's literally one of the least safe prospects in this draft. He's probably not in the top 50 prospects, he's literally just a physically gifted player who happens to also play the most important position.

The level of competition he played (and played on a superior team) makes it extremely hard to argue he's a top prospect. If I'm making a top XX prospect list, I can't reasonably assume Lance will succeed compared to all the other players who've proven themselves against real competition.

Again, I love his potential and would grab him in a heartbeat, but if you don't trust your coaches to bring him in slowly and develop him, he's got bust written all over him.

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I’m confused. Isn’t the draft entirely based on potential? That’s why Kyle trask is considered a late 1st rounder and trey lance is considered a high first rounder

Draft boards are all projection and prospect based. Trey lance had a great junior season and would’ve likely had a great senior season had they played a full season.

Like I don’t know where this “he’s not in the top 50 prospects because he’s the least safe” is coming from. He’s clearly in the top 10 prospects. I don’t even think that’s debatable.

The definition of prospects is “ the possibility or likelihood of some future event occurring”

If someone has immense physical talent, and good tape and are widely considered a top 10 pick it’s because people think with good coaching said player can realize his potential. Most players in the history of the draft are reliant on where they are drafted to determine some level of success

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Originally Posted by last stand

I’m confused. Isn’t the draft entirely based on potential? That’s why Kyle trask is considered a late 1st rounder and trey lance is considered a high first rounder

Draft boards are all projection and prospect based. Trey lance had a great junior season and would’ve likely had a great senior season had they played a full season.

Like I don’t know where this “he’s not in the top 50 prospects because he’s the least safe” is coming from. He’s clearly in the top 10 prospects. I don’t even think that’s debatable.

The definition of prospects is “ the possibility or likelihood of some future event occurring”

If someone has immense physical talent, and good tape and are widely considered a top 10 pick it’s because people think with good coaching said player can realize his potential. Most players in the history of the draft are reliant on where they are drafted to determine some level of success

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It's based on tons of things. Your potential, how you project to the next level, how you performed in college, what level of talent you played against, what level of talent you had on your own team, etc. I've seen OTs get raked over the coals for their performances against elite edge rushers; wouldn't it be silly to not consider that if you're evaluating a Division 2 OT who basically was a superior athlete to everyone in D2?

Lance has the tools to be an elite QB. He has the resume to be a used car salesman. Nobody is putting a guy in their top 10 for abusing a bunch of bottom tier guys who are basically a step up from JUCO, BUT somebody will draft him that high to see if they can develop him.

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Originally Posted by QB_Eagles

Yeah, it would be a loss in value, but you have to consider what that buys you: a year to evaluate a blue chip QB. It's pretty rare to be in this positions and I wouldn't pass on it.

When the owner says 2021 will be a "transition year", why not evaluate two QBs at once?

By the way, I would name Hurts the starter and tell him if he plays well, the rookie QB will be traded after the year. Just for some extra motivation.

Yet the new coaching staff won't have a horse in this race, so they should be able to approach it without bias.

The rest of the team will be bad-mediocre except for the OL most likely, so it should be a good showcase, especially when it comes to passing ability.

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Would you be ok if the Eagles traded up to get a QB thus losing additional assets to evaluate two QBs or only if they draft one at 6?

I guess I’d also have to look at how the view the board though. Do they only take a QB with the exact situation you’re laying out but have a couple players ranked higher?

You’re also already saying the team sucks pretty much outside of OL so the team is probably finishing with another high pick in 2022. Why not evaluate Hurts this year and take a QB next year? (I know this class is supposed to be better).

With all that I could get behind a draft of a QB at 6 to take this gamble but it’d have to be a hell of a chess game.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Originally Posted by manbearchef

It's based on tons of things. Your potential, how you project to the next level, how you performed in college, what level of talent you played against, what level of talent you had on your own team, etc. I've seen OTs get raked over the coals for their performances against elite edge rushers; wouldn't it be silly to not consider that if you're evaluating a Division 2 OT who basically was a superior athlete to everyone in D2?

Lance has the tools to be an elite QB. He has the resume to be a used car salesman. Nobody is putting a guy in their top 10 for abusing a bunch of bottom tier guys who are basically a step up from JUCO, BUT somebody will draft him that high to see if they can develop him.

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I watched all of Carson wentz college games and all of trey lance college games. Comparatively, I actually think trey lance is the better prospect (going into their draft). That being said, wentz had more tape so he was probably considered a “safer pick” even though he played at the same school lance did (weak competition). If wentz was deserving of a top 10 pick I don’t see why lance isn’t also deserving.

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Originally Posted by koldjerky

Would you be ok if the Eagles traded up to get a QB thus losing additional assets to evaluate two QBs or only if they draft one at 6?

I guess I’d also have to look at how the view the board though. Do they only take a QB with the exact situation you’re laying out but have a couple players ranked higher?

You’re also already saying the team sucks pretty much outside of OL so the team is probably finishing with another high pick in 2022. Why not evaluate Hurts this year and take a QB next year? (I know this class is supposed to be better).

With all that I could get behind a draft of a QB at 6 to take this gamble but it’d have to be a hell of a chess game.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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It’s one of those moves that people either say was absolute genius or absolute stupidity

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Originally Posted by manbearchef

It's based on tons of things. Your potential, how you project to the next level, how you performed in college, what level of talent you played against, what level of talent you had on your own team, etc. I've seen OTs get raked over the coals for their performances against elite edge rushers; wouldn't it be silly to not consider that if you're evaluating a Division 2 OT who basically was a superior athlete to everyone in D2?

Lance has the tools to be an elite QB. He has the resume to be a used car salesman. Nobody is putting a guy in their top 10 for abusing a bunch of bottom tier guys who are basically a step up from JUCO, BUT somebody will draft him that high to see if they can develop him.

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But they are putting him in the top 10.

He’s not getting drafted in the top 10 if he’s not considered a top 10 prospect. He’s widely considered a top 10 prospect

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Originally Posted by koldjerky

Would you be ok if the Eagles traded up to get a QB thus losing additional assets to evaluate two QBs or only if they draft one at 6?

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I'd only do it staying at 6.

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Originally Posted by koldjerky

You’re also already saying the team sucks pretty much outside of OL so the team is probably finishing with another high pick in 2022. Why not evaluate Hurts this year and take a QB next year? (I know this class is supposed to be better).

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Hurts could just be average, which is the biggest risk.

As for the team sucking, some of that will be temporary. I assume Howie will use 2021 to fix the cap and then will be in the market for free agents again in 2022. The bigger part is hitting on several draft picks to build a new core.

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Originally Posted by QB_Eagles

I'd only do it staying at 6.

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Same

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Originally Posted by QQQ

I watched all of Carson wentz college games and all of trey lance college games. Comparatively, I actually think trey lance is the better prospect (going into their draft). That being said, wentz had more tape so he was probably considered a “safer pick” even though he played at the same school lance did (weak competition). If wentz was deserving of a top 10 pick I don’t see why lance isn’t also deserving.

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I'm not saying he's not "deserving" of a top 10 pick, I'm saying he's not a top 10 player/prospect in this draft class. Players get over drafted all the time or get drafted to a team with a big need. I'm simply saying if I made a list of the 50 best players (NOT where I think they'll be drafted) I'm not putting Lance on it without being dishonest.

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Originally Posted by last stand

But they are putting him in the top 10.

He’s not getting drafted in the top 10 if he’s not considered a top 10 prospect. He’s widely considered a top 10 prospect

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The Raiders draft guys 10 picks ahead of where they belong every year, it has nothing to do with that player being a better prospect.

But then again if I'm the Dallas Cowboys, I'm looking to draft a QB...why? Because if Dak Prescott walks in free agency then what? You guys are basically screwed especially if Dak doesn't want to play for you guys under the franchise tag again. If the Cowboys decide not to tag him again and Dak goes unrestricted in free agency and another team manages to sign Dak, that leaves the Cowboys without a QB. Yeah the Cowboys could sign a QB through free agency or trade for one in a blockbuster trade. That is always an option or they could draft a QB at #10 or move up in the draft to get one.

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Originally Posted by manbearchef

I'm not saying he's not "deserving" of a top 10 pick, I'm saying he's not a top 10 player/prospect in this draft class. Players get over drafted all the time or get drafted to a team with a big need. I'm simply saying if I made a list of the 50 best players (NOT where I think they'll be drafted) I'm not putting Lance on it without being dishonest.




The Raiders draft guys 10 picks ahead of where they belong every year, it has nothing to do with that player being a better prospect.

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You’re talking about 1 team overvaluing a player. I’m talking about draft analysts and most likely more than just 1 team viewing him in the top 10

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Originally Posted by last stand

You’re talking about 1 team overvaluing a player. I’m talking about draft analysts and most likely more than just 1 team viewing him in the top 10

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You’re confusing draft board vs draft predictions. QBs get drafted much higher because of need. The 4th rated QB is not a higher prospect then the number one corner. The fact that the QB will be drafted higher is not a contradiction.