Are you certain a new CBA would RESET the clock? My understanding the CBA negotiates the threshold and penalty tiers. If that were the casr why wouldn't teams blow by the threshold in anticipation of a new CBA?
My understanding penalties are carried forward. The threshold always increases. Penalties/tiers tend to remain fairly stable.
Sportsrac has tax liability going forward until 2024, which I don't quite understand since there is no threshold basis beyond 2021 for the purpose of calcs.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/2024/