Yankee off season thread, news, notes, rumors and ideas

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02-16-2021, 05:01 PM
Posada20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stevemil505

Without reading his post, let me guess- probably a negative comment. Let's see. Gee, golly I was right. I must have ESP.

More like realistic than negative . Just look at the numbers on that link . Only 2 starters out of the 10 listed for the Yankees are projected to have eras below 4 . So if most of the time the Yankees starting pitching will be giving up atleast 4 runs a game , that means the offense is projected to score atleast 4 to 5 runs a game , hence why the high wars for that rotation after cole despite pitching so few innings and having eras over 4 . Outside of kluber and sevy , those projected numbers behind cole are not very encouraging at all . All you have to do is look at the numbers outside of war to see that .
02-16-2021, 05:01 PM
dayners81

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stevemil505

Without reading his post, let me guess- probably a negative comment. Let's see. Gee, golly I was right. I must have ESP.

spot on, who would have guessed
02-16-2021, 05:16 PM
PJO34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Posada20

More like realistic than negative . Just look at the numbers on that link . Only 2 starters out of the 10 listed for the Yankees are projected to have eras below 4 . So if most of the time the Yankees starting pitching will be giving up atleast 4 runs a game , that means the offense is projected to score atleast 4 to 5 runs a game , hence why the high wars for that rotation after cole despite pitching so few innings and having eras over 4 . Outside of kluber and sevy , those projected numbers behind cole are not very encouraging at all . All you have to do is look at the numbers outside of war to see that .

Wrong. An ERA of 4.0 means a starting pitcher would surrender on average 2.2 runs in 5 innings. It would be up to the bullpen to depress runs the rest of the game. If our starters go 5 and surrender 2 runs every four games and 3 runs in the fifth, we are going to win a lot of games considering our bullpen and offense.
02-16-2021, 05:17 PM
drt1010

I don't believe run support is factored into a pitchers WAR! I could be wrong but I seriously doubt it.
02-16-2021, 05:19 PM
drt1010

Quote:

Originally Posted by Posada20

Not sure I understand how the Yankees rotation can be predicted to get higher war than the Padres mets and dodgers when their team era is predicted to be over 4 while the other 3 teams were will have eras of less than 4 . The only thing I can conclude from all those numbers is that outside of cole , the reason why the yanks rotation will have such good war is mainly because of run support . Another thing I find hard to believe about those projections is that the Yankees are shown to get more innings from their rotation than almost all of the other teams listed there and I just find that very hard to believe when they have 4 starters who have not really pitched n the last 2 years and none of them are projected to go more than 155 innings .

Wrong!
02-16-2021, 05:24 PM
PJO34

Twelve days (Sunday February 28) until first spring training game. Anyone have a broadcasting schedule? I really need to see some baseball. :)
02-16-2021, 05:27 PM
drt1010

Quote:

Originally Posted by spliff(TONE)

Probably because Yankee stadium is a bandbox and the other home stadiums mentioned are not.

Really? The numbers would suggest otherwise:

MLB Park Factors - 2019
RK PARK NAME RUNS HR H 2B 3B BB
1 Coors Field (Denver, Colorado) 1.394 1.266 1.300 1.314 2.148 1.093
2 Globe Life Park in Arlington 1.245 1.062 1.142 1.090 1.545 1.092
3 Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan) 1.107 1.086 1.111 0.928 2.011 0.973
4 Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.) 1.101 1.267 1.097 1.169 0.957 1.016
5 Oriole Park at Camden Yards 1.088 1.262 1.063 1.157 0.931 0.930
6 Marlins Park (Miami, Florida) 1.087 0.828 1.018 1.022 2.000 1.057
7 Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas) 1.083 1.195 1.024 0.866 0.815 0.969
8 Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri) 1.074 0.741 1.086 1.205 1.345 0.937
9 Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts) 1.063 0.878 1.010 1.380 1.120 1.108
10 Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) 1.047 1.170 1.028 0.886 0.960 1.026
11 Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio) 1.038 1.130 1.027 1.029 0.437 1.052
12 Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario) 1.031 1.317 0.993 0.918 0.913 0.988
13 Angel Stadium (Anaheim, California) 1.018 1.081 1.009 1.022 0.815 1.028
14 PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) 1.004 0.906 0.997 1.281 1.000 1.161
15 Truist Park (Cumberland, GA) 1.003 1.018 0.998 1.137 0.926 0.995
16 Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona) 0.977 0.888 0.998 1.003 1.654 0.959
17 Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin) 0.976 1.030 0.913 0.899 0.828 0.992
18 Target Field (Minneapolis, Minnesota) 0.975 0.870 1.007 1.151 1.091 1.092
19 Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio) 0.972 1.048 0.952 1.037 0.583 0.979
20 Guaranteed Rate Field (Chicago, Illinois) 0.966 1.238 0.926 0.809 0.349 1.078
21 T-Mobile Park (Seattle, Washington) 0.952 0.934 0.946 0.827 0.486 1.006
22 Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois) 0.931 0.871 0.969 0.938 1.429 0.988
23 Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri) 0.917 0.831 0.943 0.871 0.955 0.934
24 Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California) 0.905 1.128 0.987 0.898 0.333 0.833
25 Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida) 0.895 0.904 0.935 0.975 1.200 0.955
26 Citi Field (New York, New York) 0.891 1.000 0.889 0.841 0.500 0.950
27 Petco Park (San Diego, California) 0.860 0.871 0.908 0.885 0.704 1.049
28 Yankee Stadium (New York, New York) 0.816 0.865 0.880 0.729 0.591 0.901
29 Oracle Park (San Francisco, California) 0.798 0.691 0.941 0.826 1.423 0.886
02-16-2021, 05:31 PM
Posada20

Quote:

Originally Posted by drt1010

Wrong!

How about you prove me wrong instead of just yelling out “wrong” ? Please show me outside of cole , kluber and sevy , what is so encouraging about those projections ? I mean your #2 starter in tailon is projected to have almost a 4.5 era with less than 140 innings thrown , that’s hardly number 2 starter material
02-16-2021, 05:41 PM
Posada20

Quote:

Originally Posted by PJO34

Wrong. An ERA of 4.0 means a starting pitcher would surrender on average 2.2 runs in 5 innings. It would be up to the bullpen to depress runs the rest of the game. If our starters go 5 and surrender 2 runs every four games and 3 runs in the fifth, we are going to win a lot of games considering our bullpen and offense.

That’s the thing most of those

Say it any way you want but an era of over 4 for a starter is not very good at all . Era is over 9 innings so every 9 innings a starter goes they give up atleast 4 runs . That is not that good . And unless tailon starts less than 27 games this year , 132 innings translates to less than 5 innings a start . Again not very good either . I am not saying all those numbers are wrong either . I actually agree with them . Especially the projections from tailon and kluber . I am just trying to understand how the yanks can have the best war in baseball when 3 teams are gonna have better team starting eras than the Yankees .
02-16-2021, 05:49 PM
drt1010

Quote:

Originally Posted by Posada20

How about you prove me wrong instead of just yelling out “wrong” ? Please show me outside of cole , kluber and sevy , what is so encouraging about those projections ? I mean your #2 starter in tailon is projected to have almost a 4.5 era with less than 140 innings thrown , that’s hardly number 2 starter material

You were proven wrong on several issues already.

I am not going to do the work for you. You must substantiate your claims. Suffice to say ERA is only one criteria used in the FanGraphs analysis.
02-16-2021, 05:51 PM
Posada20

Quote:

Originally Posted by drt1010

I don't believe run support is factored into a pitchers WAR! I could be wrong but I seriously doubt it.

Actually run support is a factor in determining war for a pitcher . It is called RA9def or runs per nine innings of Support .
https://www.cooperstowncred.com/stat...-for-pitchers/
02-16-2021, 05:58 PM
dayners81

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kinkotheclown

I saw that in the write up about him. That's why I mentioned he liked pitching to him. I also think this plays into what Day was saying about having an older catcher to work with the young guys. His value may be more to Garcia, Schmidt, Medina.... with the occasional call up for a start.

Yes, he is almost exactly what i was talking about. If he could help out a guy like Austin Wells and work with him to improve his defensive fundamentals, Wells could have a very bright career as a catcher, when alot of scouts think he's destined for LF/1st base.

At the same time he's got a solid rep as a receiver and game caller. A guy like him could help our young pitchers a great deal as well. Any C that has spent 10+ yrs at the MLB level have experience that you just can't teach. He could help the pitchers in AAA work on their game plans, pitch sequencing ect. Having caught Verlander, Morton, Cole, Greinke he certainly has seem what works and what doesn't and passing that onto the kids as they are coming up would be huge advantage for our young pitchers.

IMO, if the Yanks can develop a couple TOR starters and BP arms out of this large group of high talented pitchers that are all within a yr or 2 of being MLB ready i think they could keep this championship window open a bit longer with this group. Having an excellent veteran catcher around that can help with development would be a huge asset if they were to use him as a coach also
02-16-2021, 05:59 PM
Posada20

Quote:

Originally Posted by drt1010

You were proven wrong on several issues already.

I am not going to do the work for you. You must substantiate your claims. Suffice to say ERA is only one criteria he used in the FanGraphs analysis.

That is the response I expected from you , makes me wonder why I bother responding to your posts at all. But Like you said era is just one criteria , as is War . And I wasn’t just using era , I was using innings pitched too . And going by era AND innings pitched , after cole and kluber there isn’t a lot to be encouraged from in that rotation . One thing those projections did do is prove YOU wrong on is kluber and tailon . They show kluber doing better than tailon this season . And if those projections hold true then what I said about the kluber signing will be right .
02-16-2021, 06:08 PM
dayners81

RA9def: runs per 9 innings of support (or lack thereof) from a player’s defense. This puts a pitcher’s performance in the context of the overall defensive numbers of his team. When you find a pitcher with a surprisingly high or low WAR, this is the first place to look to see why.

The way i read that is it has way more to do with how a team plays behind a pitcher defensively not so much what his Offense does when he is on the mound
02-16-2021, 06:19 PM
Posada20

Quote:

Originally Posted by dayners81

RA9def: runs per 9 innings of support (or lack thereof) from a player’s defense. This puts a pitcher’s performance in the context of the overall defensive numbers of his team. When you find a pitcher with a surprisingly high or low WAR, this is the first place to look to see why.

The way i read that is it has way more to do with how a team plays behind a pitcher defensively not so much what his Offense does when he is on the mound

You are right . But I still think the runs their offense scores for a pitcher effects his war unless wins or innings pitched don’t factor into war . And I think the more runs a team scores for a pitcher the more wins a pitcher is likely to get and the more innings he is likely to pitch since starters with leads tend to stay in games longer than pitchers constantly pitching from behind .

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