I literally explained why Nate and Kerr's numbers were what they were. The difference between the metrics I'm using and what you're using is the metrics I'm using are literally just recording what actually happened. PER is just arbitrarily adding up box score numbers to try and spit out some lump sum value. I will breakdown in detail why Moses's peak was not all time level.
Moses's APM was +4.4 on the '83 Sixers, which roughly equates to a strong All NBA/weak MVP level impact. This means that the Sixers had roughly a +4.4 net rating with Moses on the court. We can mostly rule out lineup shenanigans, teammate influence, etc. due to Moses leading the team in minutes. Since he played roughly 80% of all available minutes, we can reasonably assume that he encountered a ton of lineup variety, which again, generally rules out his numbers being weirdly skewed.
Okay, so let's contextualize that +4.4. I've already said 2004 is an all time great season by KG, so for reference, his adjusted plus minus was a staggering +11.5, indicating an all time level impact. Alright, so maybe you want to say KG's number is inflated because he had bad teammates (this is actually a really bad and nonsensical argument, but we'll use it anyways to pivot to another example). Let's look at 2011 LeBron James, where he was playing with a still in prime Wade. He still clocks in at +7.3, a strong, MVP level/best player in the league level impact. Now let me indulge and look at someone who I think has a peak more in line with Moses, 2000 Alonzo Mourning, his definitive MVP level season, clear best player on the team, etc. Mourning's APM is +5.9, which feels harmonious with the level of impact Moses had in '83.
We can even say that APM is too noisy and that it either underrates or overrates Moses. For your sake let's say it underrates him. As I've already mentioned he played roughly 80% of all available minutes, so I don't think his on the court impact is getting siphoned from a specific teammate, however let's say that some of it is. How much higher can Moses possibly be? +5? Sure, that's reasonable. Should we
double his APM? +8.8?? That feels egregious, and I don't see a justifiable argument to do so. The point here is that we could give Moses even more credit than his APM suggests and it's still not in the ball park of the all time greats.
We can move on from APM however. It sounds like you don't like it because there are some wonky low minute or lineup related outliers, which I've already explained. But still, if you want to have a more emotional based approach instead of trying to contextualize the data you're looking at that's fine, we can move on to another metric.
Let's look at his PIPM, which has a luck adjustment methodology that attempts to acknowledge on the court variances that teams don't have control over. In '83 Moses clocks in at +4.8, which again, suggests a strong all NBA/weak MVP level lift. In terms of PIPM wins added he hovers around 16, again a weak MVP level impact, with the next best player on his team Julius Erving hovering around 11 wins added, which is an All NBA level impact. See, now we're closing in on terms to try and determine how much better Moses was than his second best teammate, what that gap looked like, and ultimately what it means for Moses's overall impact at an individual level. This totally aligns with their win pace increase as well from '82 to '83.
Let's move on to WOWYR (With or Without You, Regressed), with admittedly takes a more prime based approach instead of peak, but is still useful in the breadcrumb trail it provides to help paint a larger picture. WOWYR is a game level study, so perhaps it's some you're more attuned to. Regardless, I recommend reading more about it here:
https://backpicks.com/metrics/wowyr/
Diving into Moses' prime ('77-86), we can see that he hovered around 2.8, with a variability of 0.6, suggesting he may have peaked around 4 in a single season. This aligns with his APM, PIPM, and Wins Added estimate, again, helping paint the picture of a low MVP level peak.
To toss in a few other pieces of data that more or less align: Backpicks BPM, bball reference BPM, and WS/48 all paint his peak in the same terms as previously described. Impact metrics will never tell the whole story, but they're especially useful when they are all painting the same picture.
We can move on to more footage based analysis, which is actually my favorite way of going about things. It's visible on tape that beyond the obvious elements of his game (all time great rebounding), he was a viable iso scorer, but was unable to create for teammates. Both on tape and in the numbers (weak box creation, horrid passer rating), it's clear he's an incredibly poor passer, limiting the overall scalability of his offense. Watching him on defense for more than two seconds and it's incredibly obvious his defense does not scale well either. In the era of three second violations he wouldn't be able to paint dwell, and he didn't have the skill set or mobility to deal with modern pick and roll sets. (Happy to provide film on this if you'd like.)
All of this suggests the same idea, that his peak was not transcendent, not all time level, and would not scale particularly well in the modern era. In terms of scoring value he was 22.8 per 75 on +5 rTS. Which, shockingly, once again, is a good, but not all time great scoring season. Other studies, such has Ben Taylor's COPR valuations, which are largely season to season studies driven by film as much as they are numbers, have come to the same conclusion.
https://backpicks.com/wp-content/upl...valuations.png
I'm not going to address all the points about abstract greatness or legacy or whatever because that's not really something I care about. When this question is asked all I'm really concerned about is looking at his makes their team better, who improves their team's chances the win the most? And Moses falls way short in that context.
So now that I've elaborated on my point further, I'd like you to expound upon yours. Are you able to move away from PER and Win Shares and derive his value on the '83 Sixers team using another approach? If so, please elaborate. After you've elaborated on this, please then contextualize his '83 impact versus someone like KG in 04, or '77 Bill Walton, or even someone like '08 Kobe.
We have all these sign posts implying the same thing, so I'm wondering what all you're looking at and seeing that leads you to believe the exact opposite.
