They are getting pre-2019 season Cleveland Brown level hype. Did not turn out like they planned, probably the same will happen to Tampa, I'm sorry, Tompa Boy.
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I hate La Confora with a passion (he's a hack with no sources), but it would not be unfathomable for this team to sputter. Ignore Trubisky for a second and think about just how putrid our offense was as a whole last year. We're hinging our entire success on Nick Foles.
Now just imagine that our defense also isn't as dominant as they were last year and we're going to be absolutely terrible. IMO this team has boom or bust potential. If Foles is legit we'll probably make the playoffs. If he's not we're going to be trash.
I see it kinda the opposite. I think we have a stable average projection for next year. I see no reason to expect as of now why our defense would randomly tank, it's not like the 2011/2012 team where most of our core is old and declining. Our offense should be bad again, but our defense should be too good for us to suck completely. I think 8-8 is the perfect expectation and that anything too high or too low in either direction as a prediction is wrong.
Defensive stability year to year is quite rare. Our defense last year wasn't as great as the year before. I know we added Quinn and Jaylon Johnson, but the natural regression and aging process will hit. My main point though is that us being putrid next year isn't as astonishing as one might think.
In other news, Kyle Long is a monster
https://theathletic.com/1825706/2020...-bears-career/
He has 16 surgical scars. He broke pretty much all his fingers, his shoulder, his neck, his elbow and his hip.Quote:
Long also is learning to play left tackle after two years of playing right guard. His first assignment is to block Green Bay Packers defensive end Julius Peppers, who now has the fourth-most sacks in NFL history. On a third-and-long play in the first quarter, Peppers maneuvers around Long and puts his hands on Cutler. Long lunges with his fingers extended. When he hits the steely Peppers, three fingers dislocate and his knuckle fractures.
It turns out to be the best injury of Long’s life. Long has to wear a cast in games. The cast becomes a weapon. Before each game, he closes his hand on a tennis ball and trainers tape and cast his hand. But they make it appear as if his fingers are extended. In fact, the cast extends about two inches beyond Long’s regular hand length.
“I could use my right hand as a jab and my left hand to grab,” Long says. “I could throw my right hand recklessly at their heads, chests, throats. They hated it. It was hard, and I couldn’t feel anything because I was grabbing the tennis ball.”
Long plays well enough with the cast to be invited to his third Pro Bowl. But in that game, his left hand gets caught between Calais Campbell’s shoulder pads and Travis Frederick’s helmet. He dislocates his index, middle and ring fingers.
“The fingers were lying on my wrist, pulled back all the way,” he says.
I wasn’t thrilled with our offseason, too many older guys brought in and the draft was nothing special. Saying that I don’t get these ridiculously bad predictions with the defense we have. Seeing plenty of 7-9, some 6-10, then a 3-13? Wow, that is just over the top
Even if they're bad, the 3-13 predictions are too low. I'm not expecting a great season or anything, I think their floor is probably 6 wins, not bottom 3 in the league like most of these lists are suggesting.
I guess the one thing that could absolutely tank the season is a bunch of injuries, but you can say that about every team.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we got another 5 years left, but I don't think there's any reason we don't have another 1 or 2 at least. The Vikings have been top 10 in defensive DVOA since 2015, the Broncos since 2013, Baltimore 7 out of the last 8 years. Seattle had their run from 2011-2017, and have still been in the top 15 the last two years.
Pending serious injuries, I'd be pretty surprised if we were awful. I'd also be surprised if we were great.
We had 8 wins last year. Hicks and Roquan are coming off significant injuries. The entire defense is older. The one impactful player we added was an aging Robert Quinn. When you combine that with our well-documented offensive woes, us flopping is not so far fetched.
Do I personally expect us to win 3 games? No. But I'm simply pointing out that it's not pure anti-Bears bias.
Yeah I'm not in love at all with this off-season either.
I wouldn't say far fetched, I just think it's on the tail end of possibilities. If a bunch of outlets were ranking the Bears as 11-5 favorites all over the place, I'd think that was overly rosy. I think both are possible, but both are on the tails for what we should expect. Between 6-10 wins feels like the middle 80% of outcomes. The other 20% is possible, but not what should be projected in general for me. It's weird we aren't seeing more projections in that range.
I also wouldn't say I think it's anti-Bears, I think it's just that most publications tend to bet on bad teams with stability at quarterback in favor of teams that are good elsewhere but bad at quarterback.
The only guy i could see regressing is hicks..... maybe trevathan but smith should be able to begin to increase his role as Trevathan decreases.
Idk if i should expect Johnson to be as good as Prince..... or Gipson as good as Haha...... But these were not exactly our top teir defenders they are replacing either. These were maybe guys 7-11
And with Quinn.... it should add to any pass rush that maybe you loose in Hicks. should take some pressure off mack and hicks.
The big hope is that the offense is better. In unconvinced that the running game will be better..... In unconvinced the QB change will be that great for the offense if we cant support either QB with a run game.... however.... the TE position has to be better. And there is hope that mitch steps up or that foles is just better. There is hope that the OL just is better with Castillo. Im not optimistic.... But it not hard to assume the offense should be better than what it was.... as it was one of the worst and getting worse seems.... well implausible. 29th total leaves basically nowhere to go but up. Running game is similar with the 27th.... 28th.... and 28th ranked rushing attack (yards/TD/YPA)
An 8-8 record would be the absolute worst case scenario for me. Give me playoffs or 3-13 this year with 3 legitimate QBs in the draft
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So at first I was like, bears are at least going 8-8 as I like the offseason and I think they're going to be more like 2018 on defense and their offense will be much better. but looking at the schedule..... wow. 5 wins should be doable, but to get to 8 or 10, these other teams are tough.
Lions - W
Giants - W
Falcons - ?
Colts - ?
Buccaneers - ?
Panthers - W
Rams - ?
Saints - ?
Titans - ?
Vikings - ?
Packers - ?
Lions - W
Texans - ?
Vikings - ?
Jaguars - W
Packers - ?
It certainly looks like a harder schedule than I expected for a 3rd place team.
Still, the 3 win predictions seem outrageous to me. A lot would have to go wrong IMO for that to happen and if it did, Pace better be out the door.