2020 Offseason Thread

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Originally Posted by hester23fan4va

So at first I was like, bears are at least going 8-8 as I like the offseason and I think they're going to be more like 2018 on defense and their offense will be much better. but looking at the schedule..... wow. 5 wins should be doable, but to get to 8 or 10, these other teams are tough.

Lions - W
Giants - W
Falcons - ?
Colts - ?
Buccaneers - ?
Panthers - W
Rams - ?
Saints - ?
Titans - ?
Vikings - ?
Packers - ?
Lions - W
Texans - ?
Vikings - ?
Jaguars - W
Packers - ?

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The Falcons suck too, I'd expect us to win that game even if they do have Ryan & Julio. Anyway, 10? Yeah, that's tough. I think the Bears are heavy favorites for the games you pointed out and probably not far from 50/50 in either direction for the games I bolded. The Bucs are so tough to project, but you kinda have to give Brady the benefit of the doubt. The Titans could also drop off big time since Tannehill probably isn't gonna keep playing like an elite QB. Anyway, I'd stick with 8 wins being my projection.

I know we haven’t seen this team play yet as currently constructed but there’s only one team on the schedule that I have little faith going into the game that we would be able to beat. That’s the Saints. Depending on how healthy our D is and how high above average our Offense is we can beat them too. We were in just about every single game last year with the exception of the Eagles and Chiefs game. Even the game vs the saints was much closer for a huge part of the game than the final score indicates


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Sports Illustrated article out in the past few days about the Bears' (in)ability to run the ball up the middle was rather eye opening..

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/be...ant-run-inside

Where Bears Ranked Running Up the Middle

1999 31st

2000 31st

2001 31st

2002 32nd

2003 31st

2004 29th

2005 32nd

2006 32nd

2007 30th

2008 29th

2009 32nd

2010 31st

2011 32nd

2012 22nd

2013 28th

2014 30th

2015 23rd

2016 32nd

2017 32nd

2018 29th

2019 30th

JFC that's pathetic

Show this to Kreutz

Hard to beleive we have struggled like that mever breaching over 20th.... especially considering Howard was mainly an up the middle type of guy.... and had success. All those years with Forte (not that he was a plodder but he was in the 20th worst) and then getting back to the Jones and Benson days too? Those guys were bottom third (most cases bottom 1/6. Hard to beleive

I see that info and wonder how a guy like Whitehair is graded so well by PFF. I mean, doesn’t it draw some question to the “advanced” rankings? If you play C and your team can’t run the ball up the gut, that has to be a noticeable negative to your grade.


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Originally Posted by Coach100

I see that info and wonder how a guy like Whitehair is graded so well by PFF. I mean, doesn’t it draw some question to the “advanced” rankings? If you play C and your team can’t run the ball up the gut, that has to be a noticeable negative to your grade.


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The last 20 years we have not been able to run up the middel? How about with long and Sitton?

Those numbers Seem too bad to be real IMO.

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Originally Posted by Coach100

I see that info and wonder how a guy like Whitehair is graded so well by PFF. I mean, doesn’t it draw some question to the “advanced” rankings? If you play C and your team can’t run the ball up the gut, that has to be a noticeable negative to your grade.


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I don't think Whitehair is graded all that well outside his rookie year.

2019: 64.9 (29th)
2018: 73.1 (9th)
2017: 70.9 (11th)

He's mostly graded out well in pass protection anyway.

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Originally Posted by La_bibbers

I don't think Whitehair is graded all that well outside his rookie year.

2019: 64.9 (29th)
2018: 73.1 (9th)
2017: 70.9 (11th)

He's mostly graded out well in pass protection anyway.

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Is that just run blocking or his overall grade?

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Originally Posted by DamnGoat

Is that just run blocking or his overall grade?

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Overall grade.

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Originally Posted by La_bibbers

Overall grade.

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That’s my point. I think it shows flaws in PFF grading.

How can Whitehair be graded 11 & 9 when the run game up the middle is so bad? He would have to be off the charts good in pass blocking to be a top 10 Center while be part of one of the worst run games in his area.

This tells me that run coming is undervalued in comparison to pass blocking being overvalued by PFF. That, or Whitehair was making blocks and creating holes that the RB were totally missing.

I am not trying to rag on Cody. I have always had issues with stats that require grading - they are subjective. As soon as subjectivity is involved, so is human bias and error. I think PFF has a place in statistics, but people also need to be honest about its issues and limitations.


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Originally Posted by Coach100

That’s my point. I think it shows flaws in PFF grading.

How can Whitehair be graded 11 & 9 when the run game up the middle is so bad? He would have to be off the charts good in pass blocking to be a top 10 Center while be part of one of the worst run games in his area.

This tells me that run coming is undervalued in comparison to pass blocking being overvalued by PFF. That, or Whitehair was making blocks and creating holes that the RB were totally missing.

I am not trying to rag on Cody. I have always had issues with stats that require grading - they are subjective. As soon as subjectivity is involved, so is human bias and error. I think PFF has a place in statistics, but people also need to be honest about its issues and limitations.


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I don't see why it all falls on Cody Whitehair? Poor scheming, the fact there's two other interior linemen involved, poor runningback play, etc can all play a part in that particular stat. Do you also believe that Olin Kruetz was an awful center too?

Anyway, I don't wanna act like I'm saying PFF is perfect, I tend to get defensive because I think people are far too quick to just dismiss them completely and I think it's insulting for all the work they put in, but frankly, I think this is a pretty lazy argument against them. Cody's been a pretty stout player since we got him. Not great, but I think fringe top 10 is pretty appropriate, though even PFF dropped him down to 29th last year.

nvm

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Originally Posted by La_bibbers

I don't see why it all falls on Cody Whitehair? Poor scheming, the fact there's two other interior linemen involved, poor runningback play, etc can all play a part in that particular stat. Do you also believe that Olin Kruetz was an awful center too?

Anyway, I don't wanna act like I'm saying PFF is perfect, I tend to get defensive because I think people are far too quick to just dismiss them completely and I think it's insulting for all the work they put in, but frankly, I think this is a pretty lazy argument against them. Cody's been a pretty stout player since we got him. Not great, but I think fringe top 10 is pretty appropriate, though even PFF dropped him down to 29th last year.

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The first part of your response is way off base. I never said Whitehair was bad or even mediocre. I certainly never said anything about Olin. I simply said that this is a reflection on the PFF “grading” system. Maybe I should have said “a possible reflection” earlier. To throw in anything suggesting any player - Cody, Olin, etc - did not reflect my original comments at all.

I understand that a variety of factors and players go into a productive run game. I also don’t think it can be overlooked that CHI was so bad at running up the middle while maintaining well graded players that directly effect that outcome. I even offered up that maybe Whitehair is doing his job and the lack of results are on others.

As for the my “lazy argument” - how is looking at other factors/stats in conjunction with PFF to judge them lazy? Lazy is simply taking what they say as gospel or totally discarding it. No one can refute that PFF uses subjective human judgement to create their rankings. That inevitably leads to missteps.

“How can linemen on a poor performing line be graded well by PFF?” I think this is exactly the kind of discussion people should have about PFF’s performance at rating performance. I am not saying I am right - I simply gave my opinion on potential flaws in their grading (ie - over-valuing pass blocking v run-blocking at a time when many people value passing over running) in conjunction with supporting stats.


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