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View Full Version : The Warriors Effect and the Three Point Shot



WestCoastSportz
12-11-2018, 04:25 PM
In 2015, the first title for the Warriors since 1947, the Warriors were third in the league in three point attempts with 27 per game. Only one team took more than 30, which were the Rockets at 32.7. So far this year, 19 teams are taking more than 30 three point shots a game. The Bucks, took 15 attempts per game in 2015/16 and are now taking over 40 a game.

Is this a trend that is concerning fans or is this just the way modern day basketball is being played? Just seeing what other people's thoughts are.

Hawkeye15
12-11-2018, 04:39 PM
In 2015, the first title for the Warriors since 1947, the Warriors were third in the league in three point attempts with 27 per game. Only one team took more than 30, which were the Rockets at 32.7. So far this year, 19 teams are taking more than 30 three point shots a game. The Bucks, took 15 attempts per game in 2015/16 and are now taking over 40 a game.

Is this a trend that is concerning fans or is this just the way modern day basketball is being played? Just seeing what other people's thoughts are.

With the rule changes, and teams like the Warriors spacing the floor, it was basically a copy of what works, which is very common in sports. Teams know they need to not only be able to space the floor in an era where you can't touch guards, but they also need to be able to defend that exact same thing. Analytics has all but killed the long 2, though plenty of coaches were ahead of the game when it came to that. Hell in 1991 my coach yanked me for shooting a 19 footer, and said, "why not just back up another 2 feet if you are going to shoot that?".

Rules will change again at some point, and perhaps a result will be the court shrinking some.

Vinylman
12-11-2018, 05:11 PM
In 2015, the first title for the Warriors since 1947, the Warriors were third in the league in three point attempts with 27 per game. Only one team took more than 30, which were the Rockets at 32.7. So far this year, 19 teams are taking more than 30 three point shots a game. The Bucks, took 15 attempts per game in 2015/16 and are now taking over 40 a game.

Is this a trend that is concerning fans or is this just the way modern day basketball is being played? Just seeing what other people's thoughts are.

The case study of a band wagon fan... 1947 LMFAO

Chronz
12-11-2018, 05:19 PM
Insiders for Houston have dreaded the day when the laymen accept math. Their advantage has shrunk.

Chronz
12-11-2018, 05:22 PM
To add to the subject. The warriors are 3pt gunners turned into eazy midrange shooters. That's partly scouting but also a testament to their unprecedented talent. God I hope j hope kd tries going to the moon

tredigs
12-11-2018, 05:28 PM
In 2015, the first title for the Warriors since 1947, the Warriors were third in the league in three point attempts with 27 per game. Only one team took more than 30, which were the Rockets at 32.7. So far this year, 19 teams are taking more than 30 three point shots a game. The Bucks, took 15 attempts per game in 2015/16 and are now taking over 40 a game.

Is this a trend that is concerning fans or is this just the way modern day basketball is being played? Just seeing what other people's thoughts are.


Firstly, how dare you! The Warriors won another title in the 50's while still in Philly and again in the Bay in '75 with Rick Barry.

Trend wise I think we're about the upper echelon of where we will see 3pt volume. The Warriors have not increased their attempts a bit. They're still hovering around 30 attempts and are now 17th in the league. They just shoot them at a higher percentage. They're actually the top volume mid-range shooting team in the league (also the best). Ideally it's about having dynamic players who can score on multiple levels, defend as a unit, and to play to your strengths; exploiting the defense if they're overloading in a particular way defensively. Also, have a superstar generational talent. Two is better than one.

I'm not sure I buy the rules bit. For one there are no real new rules for shooters the past decade (just an emphasis to enforce some rules, of which I have seen very little of the past few weeks). 3pt percentage is also down as a whole (35.1%, which is the 3rd or 4th lowest of the past 20 years), which is negligible, but it means teams are starting to see diminishing returns on the shot (be it via defense and/or sheer volume). The Rockets are taking a league high 42 attempts a night, but at their 33.7% clip, it's only 1.01 points per attempts. That's not good, and by far the weakest part of their offense in the early going. It takes balance and teams are constantly working to find it.

tredigs
12-11-2018, 05:31 PM
The case study of a band wagon fan... 1947 LMFAO

Only two problems are that this is not true, and the Warriors have had a famously rabid fanbase for decades. In fact it not only spits in your face as being ignorant to the games history, but only strengthens their rep as a die hard fanbase. A good troll effort though little one. You'll get there.

Chronz
12-11-2018, 05:32 PM
Firstly, how dare you! The Warriors won another title in the 50's while still in Philly and again in the Bay in '75 with Rick Barry.

Trend wise I think we're about the upper echelon of where we will see 3pt volume. The Warriors have not increased their attempts a bit. They're still hovering around 30 attempts and are now 17th in the league. They just shoot them at a higher percentage. They're actually the top volume mid-range shooting team in the league (also the best). Ideally it's about having dynamic players who can score on multiple levels, defend as a unit, and to play to your strengths; exploiting the defense if they're overloading in a particular way defensively. Also, have a superstar generational talent. Two is better than one.

I'm not sure I buy the rules bit. For one there are no real new rules for shooters the past decade (just an emphasis to enforce some rules, of which I have seen very little of the past few weeks). 3pt percentage is also down as a whole (35.1%, which is the 3rd or 4th lowest of the past 20 years), which is negligible, but it means teams are starting to see diminishing returns on the shot (be it via defense and/or sheer volume). The Rockets are taking a league high 42 attempts a night, but at their 33.7% clip, it's only 1.01 points per attempts. That's not good, and by far the weakest part of their offense in the early going. It takes balance and teams are constantly working to find it.

You ever seen the footage of that finals where wilt buried yall?

tredigs
12-11-2018, 05:53 PM
You ever seen the footage of that finals where wilt buried yall?

Yeah I've seen bits on the WiltChamberlainArchive youtube channel I think. Rick Barry was like a rookie or 2nd year guy and dropping 40. Looking now and Wilt was the lowest scoring starter on his team. Actually playing the team game.

Chronz
12-11-2018, 05:57 PM
Yeah I've seen bits on the WiltChamberlainArchive youtube channel I think. Rick Barry was like a rookie or 2nd year guy and dropping 40. Looking now and Wilt was the lowest scoring starter on his team. Actually playing the team game.
Don't disrespect Dansthemam bro. He's a legend and even he doesn't got the footage. Final play of the series is soo reminiscent of "the block' in the sense that it was the original block. Plz tell me you've heard of it

tredigs
12-11-2018, 06:08 PM
Don't disrespect Dansthemam bro. He's a legend and even he doesn't got the footage. Final play of the series is soo reminiscent of "the block' in the sense that it was the original block. Plz tell me you've heard of it

Never heard about any block, not a series I look back on often or anything though.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DRPf7WuFuU

Here's a similar version of the clips I've seen before. No replay or mention about a big block though.

valade16
12-11-2018, 06:22 PM
I'll take that one because I thought the OP was Valade, and so calling him a homer made no sense. Continue on being a no-nothing douche when it comes to the general NBA and your takes though. I am not trolling when I say I have never once seen a post from you and gone, "damn good point". I can't even recall them other than you being hate filled to be honest.

I honestly entered here and saw the logo and was like "WTF did I post this?" lol

Chronz
12-11-2018, 06:32 PM
Never heard about any block, not a series I look back on often or anything though.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DRPf7WuFuU

Here's a similar version of the clips I've seen before. No replay or mention about a big block though.

Twas an old wives tale but one I remember watching on ye olde VHS.

I actually credit the og, mjbulls for helping me find the transcript. Wish he were still alive today. I'll see what I can rummage up

Chronz
12-11-2018, 06:34 PM
It's so poetic too, I wrote a great soliloquy to that series vs the great choke of 73 n 9

Vinylman
12-12-2018, 09:37 AM
Only two problems are that this is not true, and the Warriors have had a famously rabid fanbase for decades. In fact it not only spits in your face as being ignorant to the games history, but only strengthens their rep as a die hard fanbase. A good troll effort though little one. You'll get there.

mods let crap like this through but delete the other posts...

PSD… where logic falls flat...

not surprised... you guys probably didn't "get it" either...

zookman65
12-13-2018, 10:32 AM
I think the new wide open game is much more exciting than the 90s, isolate and back a defender down game. The fact is there were players that could have excelled much more such as Bird with 3 pointers if not for the dogma of the day that you shouldnt be firing up more than one or two 3 pointers per team per game. Math is amazing, right? Someone figured out that shooting 35% from 3 is better than 45-50% from 2 point range.

Scoots
12-13-2018, 11:36 AM
I think the new wide open game is much more exciting than the 90s, isolate and back a defender down game. The fact is there were players that could have excelled much more such as Bird with 3 pointers if not for the dogma of the day that you shouldnt be firing up more than one or two 3 pointers per team per game. Math is amazing, right? Someone figured out that shooting 35% from 3 is better than 45-50% from 2 point range.

The late 90s game was terrible, but I think things have swung too far to the 3 at the moment. It's like the 2 years when they moved the 3 point line in, too many players starting shooting 3s so they moved the line back out. I think the court should be widened 2 feet and the 3 moved back a foot.

crewfan13
12-13-2018, 11:54 AM
I think the new wide open game is much more exciting than the 90s, isolate and back a defender down game. The fact is there were players that could have excelled much more such as Bird with 3 pointers if not for the dogma of the day that you shouldnt be firing up more than one or two 3 pointers per team per game. Math is amazing, right? Someone figured out that shooting 35% from 3 is better than 45-50% from 2 point range.

Exactly. But not only that, everyone has figured out very short shots and 3s are the highest percentage looks. Having floor spacers helps both. Not only do you get more 3s up, but it pulls defenders out of the paint for your penetrators. It's just difficult to build an offensively efficient team without those aspects.

And to the point that the warriors shoot more mid range shots now, that's partially because the threat of the 3 as well. For most nba players, wide open mid range looks aren't a bad shot. Most can convert those at a high percentage. It's the contested mid range looks that aren't ideal. So if you try to build your offense around the mid range shot and not have 3 pt threats, teams will pack it in and you'll end up taking more inefficient, contested mid range looks.

So while there may be a bit of a swing, it's impossible for me to see a very good offense built without good outside shooting barring any major rule and/or court size changes. The threat of the outside shot opens everything up and without that threat, your offense is likely doomed. We tend to think things are somewhat cyclical is sports but this doesn't feel like something that's going to cycle out of style on its own without some outside factor.

GREATNESS ONE
12-13-2018, 12:09 PM
Rabid loyal fan base!!!! :laugh:

Scoots
12-13-2018, 03:17 PM
Exactly. But not only that, everyone has figured out very short shots and 3s are the highest percentage looks. Having floor spacers helps both. Not only do you get more 3s up, but it pulls defenders out of the paint for your penetrators. It's just difficult to build an offensively efficient team without those aspects.

And to the point that the warriors shoot more mid range shots now, that's partially because the threat of the 3 as well. For most nba players, wide open mid range looks aren't a bad shot. Most can convert those at a high percentage. It's the contested mid range looks that aren't ideal. So if you try to build your offense around the mid range shot and not have 3 pt threats, teams will pack it in and you'll end up taking more inefficient, contested mid range looks.

So while there may be a bit of a swing, it's impossible for me to see a very good offense built without good outside shooting barring any major rule and/or court size changes. The threat of the outside shot opens everything up and without that threat, your offense is likely doomed. We tend to think things are somewhat cyclical is sports but this doesn't feel like something that's going to cycle out of style on its own without some outside factor.

Yep. Until there is, yet another, rule change, this is the trend offense will continue down.

Jamiecballer
12-13-2018, 09:23 PM
Insiders for Houston have dreaded the day when the laymen accept math. Their advantage has shrunk.Yep. People dont understand it was Houston that started this revolution.

Sent from my SM-A520W using Tapatalk

Scoots
12-14-2018, 08:56 AM
Yep. People dont understand it was Houston that started this revolution.

Sent from my SM-A520W using Tapatalk

Nah. They were just another step along the path.

Chronz
12-14-2018, 12:45 PM
Nah. They were just another step along the path.
Who else hired a stat centric GM? Pretty sure dork elvis played a huge hand in starting all of this.

Scoots
12-14-2018, 02:33 PM
Who else hired a stat centric GM? Pretty sure dork elvis played a huge hand in starting all of this.

The 3pt shot was introduced in 1980, in the first 10 years the rate 3 point shots were taken grew fairly consistently and more than doubled, the same is true for the next 10 years, it took 20 years to double again but in that time the game had a stagnation period because of the evolution of defensive schemes and the development of players coming in to the league which resulted in rules changes and the changes in the college game where coaches realized that having hot 3 point shooting was the easiest way to get a few rounds into the tournament that then naturally increased the rate of 3 point attempts as those players came in to the NBA. Add all that to the propagation of stat-heads getting more an more power within teams (and Morey was the first all-stat guy to become a GM).

Morey certainly played a part as did the Warriors with their success with being "a jump shooting team" making it "okay" to chuck even if Chuck didn't believe it. But there have been multiple teams in NBA history that shot far more 3s than the league average, and I remember Don Nelson talking about the power of the 3, pace, and using ball movement to create space in the 80s ... he just never had the defense to make it work with the Bucks, Warriors, or Mavs. Paul Westhead lead the Nuggets to nearly double the 3 attempts of their opponents.

There are very few things to the game that are truly new anymore.

zookman65
12-14-2018, 03:40 PM
3 > 2 = basketball analytics

Chronz
12-14-2018, 09:19 PM
The 3pt shot was introduced in 1980, in the first 10 years the rate 3 point shots were taken grew fairly consistently and more than doubled, the same is true for the next 10 years, it took 20 years to double again but in that time the game had a stagnation period because of the evolution of defensive schemes and the development of players coming in to the league which resulted in rules changes and the changes in the college game where coaches realized that having hot 3 point shooting was the easiest way to get a few rounds into the tournament that then naturally increased the rate of 3 point attempts as those players came in to the NBA. Add all that to the propagation of stat-heads getting more an more power within teams (and Morey was the first all-stat guy to become a GM).

Morey certainly played a part as did the Warriors with their success with being "a jump shooting team" making it "okay" to chuck even if Chuck didn't believe it. But there have been multiple teams in NBA history that shot far more 3s than the league average, and I remember Don Nelson talking about the power of the 3, pace, and using ball movement to create space in the 80s ... he just never had the defense to make it work with the Bucks, Warriors, or Mavs. Paul Westhead lead the Nuggets to nearly double the 3 attempts of their opponents.

There are very few things to the game that are truly new anymore.
So you're saying it all began in college?

COOLbeans
12-14-2018, 10:29 PM
Warriors consistency were considered one of the most blindly loyal fan bases in the NBA. Anyone who disputes this is either sinile or not paying attention. (Commentators and players always mentioned Oracle/ The Coliseum as being insanely loud and roudy)

basch152
12-15-2018, 12:10 AM
Warriors consistency were considered one of the most blindly loyal fan bases in the NBA. Anyone who disputes this is either sinile or not paying attention. (Commentators and players always mentioned Oracle/ The Coliseum as being insanely loud and roudy)

I remember they were consistantly going over capacity by quite a bit and had an absurdly rowdy crowd the entire year that they beat the #1 overall seed mavericks

Scoots
12-15-2018, 01:05 AM
So you're saying it all began in college?

No, but the changes in the college game contributes.