PDA

View Full Version : The Heat should stop trying to win and just tank.



TylerSL
11-16-2018, 12:45 PM
I honestly never really thought I would be of this opinion, but I believe the Miami Heat should not try to win this year and just tank. While I don't completely fault Riley and the front office for some of the moves that have been made over the last several years, we are struggling because of them. We don't have any cap space for this summer when tons of stars will be available, and we are unable to trade our expensive role players. Unless the team can find a way to unload someone, hopefully without giving away any more first round picks, then we will be in the tax both this year and next.

The on-court product hasn't been much better as the team is currently sitting at 6-8 and don't look to improve much after missing out on Jimmy Butler. Before I go on I want to acknowledge that I too would not have traded Josh Richardson, nor Adebayo, for Butler. While Butler is obviously much better than either of them, we would have to give him the pay day he seeks for him to stay and then he would be way overpaid in his mid 30's by the end of the contract. On top of that, Butler alone can't put this iteration of the team in contention. A trio of Butler/Dragic/Whiteside probably wouldn't get us past the second round in the East, and it would have cost us our future. He wasn't worth it. That said, the Heat need to get the star player they've been void of since Bosh's clots. We can't get one though because we don't have the assets to get a true superstar (Anthony Davis) and we would have to overpay for just an all-star level player (like we almost did for Butler).

With our cap situation a mess and our on-court product mediocre to put it nicely, we are literally stuck between a rock and a hard place. Our saving grace is that we own all of our future first round picks save the unprotected 2021 pick going to the Suns. That means we have our 2019 first rounder, and the top of this 2019 class looks amazing. If we decide to stop trying to win this season, which we are not winning anyway, we can give ourselves a good chance in the lottery. We don't even have to be the worst team to have a good chance, this year the 3 worst teams all have a 14% at the #1 pick, the 4th worst team has a 12.5% chance, the 5th worst 10.5%, and 6th worst 9%. If we are one of the six worst teams in the NBA we will have a legit chance at the #1 pick. In order to be one of the worst teams we need to trade Dragic, who is probably our only tradeable high-salary player. We couldn't get much back for him, probably a protected first round pick and an expiring, but if it both gets us under the tax and helps our chance of landing a great pick in the upcoming draft I say it's worth it. We're not winning with Dragic anyway so we might as well move on from him. We're stuck with Whiteside and Tyler Johnson through 2020, and Waiters and James Johnson through 2021, but if we can build through the draft we can be a much different team by as soon as next year. Let the 2018-19 season be all about Dwyane Wade's farewell tour and hope through the lottery. Because not much else is possible at this point.

Note-It's not that we don't have exciting pieces, I truly believe Richardson, Adebayo, Winslow, and McGruder all have upside and should all be getting serious playing time (I personally believe Adebayo should be starting), but none of them are to the Heat what Simmons/Embiid are to the Sixers. None of them are to the Heat what Tatum/Brown are to the Celtics. We need a true young stud on this roster, much like we got in 2003 when we selected Dwyane Wade. We need a game changer, the sooner the better. It is our way back to NBA relevancy.

beasted86
11-16-2018, 02:57 PM
Miami has instilled a culture of high effort, hard work, and accountability.

Riley and Spo would NEVER undo their culture by telling players to stop trying so hard to win. So this basically means it's impossible to tank.

Because that culture is part of their own makeup they will also never push a trade at a talent deficit just to get expiring contracts. Nor would they take equal length contracts of terrible players just because a draft pick is attached.

Also because of the unprotected 2021 pick, the timeline for a tank isn't even right.

Instead of thinking fantasy thinking.... reality is Miami's best way out of this situation is to stop repeating past mistakes and let the team get bad organically If they are going to tank. I was totally against the Winslow extension. I was against the price+ years on James Johnson's contract along with the number of years on Waiters' contract.

I also would be against a long term Dragić and/or Whiteside extension. If we could get away with an opt out and 2 year deal this summer for Dragić that would be ideal. If we can get Whiteside to opt in and trade him on his expiring deal this summer that again would be ideal.

But this fantasy talk of "guys should stop trying to give any effort" is a pointless discussion because we know it won't happen and I don't believe it even should. Once you make poor effort part of the team culture its impossible to get rid of it.

AllBall
11-19-2018, 06:05 PM
Well, to borrow beasted's word, I think we're organically bad right now. So they're unintentionally tanking anyways. It's been speculated that Waiters is delaying his comeback until after the trade deadline, so barring any other roster changes or JRich suddenly dropping 40+ a night, they're going to be bad for a while.

beasted86
11-19-2018, 08:18 PM
Miami will improve IMO once Dragić and Wade return. Also I feel JJ will begin to produce much more than Winslow does in the same role.

They aren't going to go on any 30-11 runs, but enough to hover at 8th-9th place.

naps
11-21-2018, 02:49 AM
I have never been one for tanking. But I think my patience has thinned out over time and I am just fad up with all these culture lectures which essentially produces zero results. End of the day, legends turn into myth when the process produces absolutely no results. We are stuck in the worst possible mud. We are neither a good enough team to win a playoff series (IF we can get there), nor bad enough to pick up gem in the draft. It's crazy to think how we handed out so many bad contracts to a bunch of journeymen. We are fans and our knowledge is limited when it comes to forseeing the future evolution of game along with its finance but Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg and whoever else are running the team should be able to forsee 4/5 years into the league as professionals. I have loved Pat Riley for many many years and I can't picture anyone else driving this team but man did he fail this go around. We must try to land some picks by offering anyone from this team. And I dont want no Jimmy Butler, no John Walls here. Dont intentionally lose games, just get rid of players that will win us enough games to be stuck at 8th or 9th place. Those players may bring some future value in return at the same time. So it's a win win.

beasted86
11-21-2018, 12:14 PM
I guess Miami is organically bad right now. Will probably finished bottom 10. Definitely not low enough to get a top 4 pick though.

I still have no clue what they were doing with the Winslow contract based on the terrible situation they already put themselves in with TJ, Waiters and JJ. Even with them bad enough to finish bottom 10 it worries me they will hand another unnecessary contract to McGruder.

Everyone should be available except Richardson. Bam included if he can somehow help shed a bad contract.

WaDe03
11-21-2018, 02:40 PM
They should definitely tank but itís the smart/right thing to do so it wonít happen. That being said Spos coaching and rotations have been terrible and guys are playing uninspired ball knowing they have no chance of being good so who knows.

When Riley **** the bed on the Jimmy trade the tank shouldíve started, just sucks to see the GOAT waste away on a bad team in his final year because Riley is bad at his job now.

WaDe03
11-21-2018, 02:42 PM
I guess Miami is organically bad right now. Will probably finished bottom 10. Definitely not low enough to get a top 4 pick though.

I still have no clue what they were doing with the Winslow contract based on the terrible situation they already put themselves in with TJ, Waiters and JJ. Even with them bad enough to finish bottom 10 it worries me they will hand another unnecessary contract to McGruder.

Everyone should be available except Richardson. Bam included if he can somehow help shed a bad contract.

Everyone should be available. A shot at Zion RJ or Reddish is better than anything any of these players give. Try your best to keep Bam since heís so young but if the deal is worth it go for it, he doesnít look like anything special so far.

TylerSL
12-02-2018, 02:19 PM
I have never been one for tanking. But I think my patience has thinned out over time and I am just fad up with all these culture lectures which essentially produces zero results. End of the day, legends turn into myth when the process produces absolutely no results. We are stuck in the worst possible mud. We are neither a good enough team to win a playoff series (IF we can get there), nor bad enough to pick up gem in the draft. It's crazy to think how we handed out so many bad contracts to a bunch of journeymen. We are fans and our knowledge is limited when it comes to forseeing the future evolution of game along with its finance but Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg and whoever else are running the team should be able to forsee 4/5 years into the league as professionals. I have loved Pat Riley for many many years and I can't picture anyone else driving this team but man did he fail this go around. We must try to land some picks by offering anyone from this team. And I dont want no Jimmy Butler, no John Walls here. Dont intentionally lose games, just get rid of players that will win us enough games to be stuck at 8th or 9th place. Those players may bring some future value in return at the same time. So it's a win win.

I think we can turn Wayne Ellington into a first round pick. Maybe not a 2019 first rounder, but we can get a future protected first rounder for him at the very least. He's a 3 point marksman who would make an impact on a team contending for a championship. He'd be great for the Lakers, Sixers, or even the Celtics who badly need scoring IMO.

I think we are stuck with our contracts for the next several years unless we attach Richardson to them which we definitely should not do. I don't think Winslow is valuable enough to convince teams to take on some of these contracts and while Adebayo might be, he has too much potential to be given up to shed salary. That means we're not moving TJ, Whiteside, JJ, or Waiters. The large contracts we could potentially move would be Dragic and/or Olynyk, which we should if the right deal presents itself.

No matter what though we need to play for the draft. The team as constructed isn't very good, currently projected to get the #6 pick in the draft, and extremely expensive, we have the highest payroll in the league when not including the tax. The flaws the front office made were made out of desperation. Bosh's clots really put the team in a terrible position, but Riley paid market value or above for role players. These guys would be movable pieces if they were on bargain deals, but they're not so they are not.

Knowing that we should probably expect not to have any cap space until the summer of 2020 when the contracts of Whiteside, TJ, Dragic, and JJ come to an end. JJ actually has a team option but we will certainly decline it, and so we will only have about $40 million in committed salary for the 2020/21 season (and that's including the 2019 first round pick's salary). The cap is projected at $118 million for the 20-21 season so we could be looking at having over $75 million in cap space for that summer. That doesn't mean we should go all out and spend it in one summer. The 2020 free agent class is pretty thin outside of Anthony Davis, who will likely get traded if he doesn't sign an extension with New Orleans. We have no other choice but to play the slow game, and so we need to keep and play our young players. Sell off Ellington to a contender, and potentially Dragic/Olynyk too. Make a really good pick in the 2019 draft and then do it again in the 2020 draft. The team, and our fortunes, can be extremely different in just a few years time if we do well in the draft. That has to be our focus, but we also need to maintain cap flexibility beyond 2020 so we can potentially bring in a whale that Riley has been chasing since Lebron left. That is how we get back to contention but we should expect, and actually hope, for some lean seasons this year and next.

If the front office can't or won't do these things and we end up as the #8 or #9 seed in the East and we spend our cap either re signing our players or bringing in other role players then we need to seriously consider front office changes. I think Riley is certainly safe at the moment and he should be, but we can't keep making roster mistakes going forward. This is how teams become the Knicks or the Kings.

7oc
01-22-2019, 09:02 PM
All for the tanking! I saw this change org that mentioned this.

"Pat Riley: Demote Eric Spoelstra back to Coaching Assistant - Miami Heat"

https://www.change.org/p/pat-riley-pat-riley-demote-erik-spoelstra-back-to-coaching-assistant-miami-heat

TylerSL
02-26-2019, 08:47 AM
We are in a complete tailspin, having lost 9 of our last 11. We are 1.5 games out of the 8 spot in the East, but there is no reason for us to even go for it. I realize it is Dwayne Wade's final season but who wants to see him get swept in the first round by Milwaukee, and then miss out on the lottery because we made the playoffs. Let him go out the way Kobe did. Not saying he'll drop 60 in his final game, although he should certainly try, but use these last 23 games to highlight his career and let him have the ball as much as possible.

If the season ended today, we would be the #10 lottery seed, giving us a 3.0% chance at the #1 pick and a 4.0% chance at a top 4 pick, and we can't fall lower than #12. Not good odds, but we can easily get better odds. With 23 games left and many teams at the bottom positioning themselves for the lottery already, it's basically impossible for us to finish with a record worse than the Suns, Grizzlies, Knicks, Cavs, Bulls, or Hawks. That means the best odds we can get would likely be the #7 lottery seed, currently held by the Wizards who we are 2.5 games better than currently. The #7 lottery seeds, holds a 7.5% chance at the #1 pick and a 8.5% chance at a top 4 selection. That's more than double our current odds and we couldn't fall higher than #10 as the #7 lottery seed.

This season is over for us, the team is trash right now. Even if we somehow make the playoffs, we'll just get destroyed by the Bucks or Raptors. For me, getting embarrassed in the playoffs isn't worth the loss of a lottery pick and an outside chance at a top 4 pick. This team is in cap hell until at least the summer of 2020 and likely the summer of 2021. We need to draft a really nice young player and let him develop for a year or two before we can really get back into the free agency game. Being a sure fire first round exit just isn't appealing to me.

AllBall
02-26-2019, 11:36 AM
^I'm with you brother.

naps
02-27-2019, 05:06 AM
Agreed 100%^^. Apparently, getting super-lucky in the lottery is our only hope for a turnaround.

WaDe03
02-28-2019, 09:29 AM
Wade is a god but letís get back to the tank. The 6th seed in the draft is pretty close, we can get it done.