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HandsOnTheWheel
01-23-2018, 11:56 PM
James youngest player to 30k blah blah...

To pass Kareem at 38,387, Lebron now has to average 22.29 PPG over an average of 75 games per year for the next 5 years. He averages are obviously adjusted if he averages more points/games but as of right now, Is it a given at this point that he passes KAJ, or is it becoming more of a long shot as Lebron declines with age?

mightybosstone
01-24-2018, 12:37 AM
At this point, I think it's more likely that he breaks Kareem's record than it is that he doesn't break it. If he was declining this season, I would think differently. But the guy is averaging more points per game this season than he has since 2014. And he's never missed more than 13 games in a season in his entire career. If he plays five more seasons, he's more than likely going to break it. If he plays 6-7 seasons, he's a lock to break it.

WaDe03
01-24-2018, 01:04 AM
I'll take it a step further. Unless he gets injured, he will be the 1st player to ever reach 40K.

FlashBolt
01-24-2018, 01:11 AM
I'll take it a step further. Unless he gets injured, he will be the 1st player to ever reach 40K.

I agree. But LeBron has said that his children comes first so I would not be surprised if he retires within a few more years. I think a player like LeBron's stature can certainly play PF and still average 20 points up until age 40. The problem is, that's not how I want to see LeBron's career go down. Kinda like Kobe, ruined it for me that the final year of his career was non-competitive. If LeBron ever plays deep into late 30's, I would like to see him on a team that can compete for a title or else there is no purpose for him to stick around. KAJ was doing it but still winning.

LA_Raiders
01-24-2018, 02:04 AM
He will go for it; he is well known for padding stats.

LOb0
01-24-2018, 02:16 AM
He's a tank like we've never seen. Dude has an insane amount of minutes on him already. Its gotta take its toll at some point. But I agree, its more likely he breaks it than doesn't.

If he plays 5 more seasons how many total minutes is that? With playoffs included? Even his body has gotta break down.

jaydubb
01-24-2018, 03:19 AM
I think he retires before he gets to kareem.

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ManningToTyree
01-24-2018, 03:50 AM
Entirely up to his desire to play into his late 30s and if his body can hold up as remarkably as it has to this point. Right now it seems like a foregone conclusion he will finish at the top.

Jeffy25
01-24-2018, 05:28 AM
According to a decline calculator created for baseball back in 2009, so take it with a grain of salt.....Bron is on pace to finish with 38,576, and has a 36% chance of reaching 40k points.

So 200 more than KAJ, or a 50/50 shot basically to do it.

Jeffy25
01-24-2018, 05:33 AM
He's a tank like we've never seen. Dude has an insane amount of minutes on him already. Its gotta take its toll at some point. But I agree, its more likely he breaks it than doesn't.

If he plays 5 more seasons how many total minutes is that? With playoffs included? Even his body has gotta break down.

Over the last five years, he totaled 17,908 minutes between both combined, over the last 5 years.

This would put him around 67k minutes, or around where Kareem finished, ahead of Karl.

Yanks All Day
01-24-2018, 11:59 AM
LeBron James is currently sitting on:

Points: 30,021 (6th)
Rebounds: 8,068 (65th)
Assists: 7,858 (12th)

He's the only player in the 30,000 points / 7,000 rebounds / 7,000 assists club. By the end of this season, he'll be the only player in the 30K / 8K / 8K club. By the time he retires, I'd be surprised if he wasn't the only guy in the 40K / 10K / 10K club. He's that good. Those numbers would put him 1st all-time scoring, top 40 in rebounding (as really a mainly perimeter player), and top 3-5 in assists. That's just incredible.

LBJ knows his basketball history. He knows that those numbers are what will separate him from everyone else in history, so I don't see him just retiring out of nowhere. He'll play until he can't play anymore. It's what all the greats do. Assuming he stays healthy, which is a huge IF (even for LeBron), his numbers will be limited to whatever he wants to keep them at.

Side note: I think another real factor that will keep LeBron in the NBA is the potential to one day play with his son. People have said it already. LeBron's a family man, and appears to be a pretty darn good father. His son is 13, and by the time he's 18, he might not even need to go to college to jump to the NBA. What better way to finish a career for LeBron than by playing with your son for 1-2 years? If they think LBJ Jr. has any chance of going pro, I'd guarantee LeBron sticks around long enough to sign with whatever team drafts his son.

mightybosstone
01-24-2018, 12:21 PM
LeBron James is currently sitting on:

Points: 30,021 (6th)
Rebounds: 8,068 (65th)
Assists: 7,858 (12th)

He's the only player in the 30,000 points / 7,000 rebounds / 7,000 assists club. By the end of this season, he'll be the only player in the 30K / 8K / 8K club. By the time he retires, I'd be surprised if he wasn't the only guy in the 40K / 10K / 10K club. He's that good. Those numbers would put him 1st all-time scoring, top 40 in rebounding (as really a mainly perimeter player), and top 3-5 in assists. That's just incredible.

LBJ knows his basketball history. He knows that those numbers are what will separate him from everyone else in history, so I don't see him just retiring out of nowhere. He'll play until he can't play anymore. It's what all the greats do. Assuming he stays healthy, which is a huge IF (even for LeBron), his numbers will be limited to whatever he wants to keep them at.

Side note: I think another real factor that will keep LeBron in the NBA is the potential to one day play with his son. People have said it already. LeBron's a family man, and appears to be a pretty darn good father. His son is 13, and by the time he's 18, he might not even need to go to college to jump to the NBA. What better way to finish a career for LeBron than by playing with your son for 1-2 years? If they think LBJ Jr. has any chance of going pro, I'd guarantee LeBron sticks around long enough to sign with whatever team drafts his son.

It's worth noting that he's also 19th in steals with 1,824, less than 300 short of the top 10 and less than 500 short of the top 5. He's likely going to finish his career first in total points, top 5 in total assists, at least top 10 in total steals and somewhere around top 40ish in total rebounds. In the history of the NBA, we've just never seen that level of dominance in so many statistical categories. It's remarkable.

Oh yeah... AND he's pretty much a lock to finish in the top 100 in blocks, probably somewhere in the top 70-80 range. He's already at 120th with 868.

KnicksorBust
01-24-2018, 12:23 PM
Everyone thought A-Rod was a lock to pass Hank Aaron...

mightybosstone
01-24-2018, 12:30 PM
Everyone thought A-Rod was a lock to pass Hank Aaron...

I wouldn't call Lebron passing Kareem a lock. At some point, Father Time catches up with everyone. There was a time when it was a realistic possibility that Kobe could pass Kareem, and then he just completely hit a wall that he couldn't overcome. And Kobe also hit that wall at 35 with the Achilles injury, only two years older than Lebron is now. One ACL or Achilles tear or other major injury could completely derail this in a second.

But I think Lebron could still pass that mark as long as he gives us three more years of 23-25 points a night before hitting that wall. He would then just need to give us some No. 2 or No. 3 level of production at that point, like 17-18 points a night over 60 games for a couple of years, and that would likely be enough to get to that mark. Frankly, as long as he can just keep playing basketball until he's 38 or 39 and he doesn't miss massive chunks of basketball over that span, he's probably going to get there.

Ahriman
01-24-2018, 12:32 PM
In the history of the NBA, we've just never seen that level of dominance in so many statistical categories. It's remarkable.

It's more that LBJ has extraordinary physical abilities. I mean the guy has been playing at least 84% of available games per season on heavy minutes since the age of 19. He's a freakin tank.
With those feats also come the less shiny ones. If he keeps on turning the ball as often, he'll be the leading player turning the ball over, and he might be top 5 in field goals misses

What he is doing is unprecedented, but let's not forget that every raw statistical feat is a product of longevity.

FlashBolt
01-24-2018, 01:54 PM
LeBron James is currently sitting on:

Points: 30,021 (6th)
Rebounds: 8,068 (65th)
Assists: 7,858 (12th)

He's the only player in the 30,000 points / 7,000 rebounds / 7,000 assists club. By the end of this season, he'll be the only player in the 30K / 8K / 8K club. By the time he retires, I'd be surprised if he wasn't the only guy in the 40K / 10K / 10K club. He's that good. Those numbers would put him 1st all-time scoring, top 40 in rebounding (as really a mainly perimeter player), and top 3-5 in assists. That's just incredible.

LBJ knows his basketball history. He knows that those numbers are what will separate him from everyone else in history, so I don't see him just retiring out of nowhere. He'll play until he can't play anymore. It's what all the greats do. Assuming he stays healthy, which is a huge IF (even for LeBron), his numbers will be limited to whatever he wants to keep them at.

Side note: I think another real factor that will keep LeBron in the NBA is the potential to one day play with his son. People have said it already. LeBron's a family man, and appears to be a pretty darn good father. His son is 13, and by the time he's 18, he might not even need to go to college to jump to the NBA. What better way to finish a career for LeBron than by playing with your son for 1-2 years? If they think LBJ Jr. has any chance of going pro, I'd guarantee LeBron sticks around long enough to sign with whatever team drafts his son.

Wow, 40k/10k/10k.. that's something that would never be broken. And when you consider the fact that he also produces in the playoffs. Amazing feat of production.

I just checked his playoffs ranking for all basic stats.

1) He's #1 in points total.
2) Has a chance to be #3 in rebounds if he keeps this pace up till 37.
3) Will almost definitely hit #1 in steals by the end of this season.
4) Will be top 10 in blocks if he keeps this pace up till 37.
5) Will be #2 in playoffs assists if he plays till 37 keeping this pace.

That's ridiculous.