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View Full Version : Sustainability of Bostonís winning



warfelg
11-21-2017, 09:10 AM
Was talking with my cousin whoís a Boston fan (and pessimistic at times) and was talking about how all these close games make him nervous. He thinks itís taking a lot out of Kyrie to pull the team back into it offensively. He also talked about how they havenít played a lot of good teams and these close games against them is another layer of worrying.

So whatís your take? How sustainable is this pace? Are they in for a struggle train time?

homie564
11-21-2017, 09:39 AM
The strength of schedule idea is dumb... theyíve beaten good teams and even great teams.

But with that said itís not 100% sustainable. I do think theyíll end with the best record in the east though (~58 wins? Something like that)


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IndyRealist
11-21-2017, 09:47 AM
At this pace they are on track for 73 wins, so no I don't think they're going to sustain it. But Kyrie is still really young, they'll be fine. Tell your friend to just enjoy the ride.

hugepatsfan
11-21-2017, 09:53 AM
16-2 is a 73 win pace. Obviously they won't sustain that. So in a literal sense it's definitely not sustainable. In a more broad perspective, I think they're a very good team. I actually think they'll be a better playoff team because they'll extend minutes of their better players:

Horford, Brown playing 32.6 minutes/game
Kyrie playing 31.5
Tatum playing 30.3
Morris playing 23.7 as he's still on restrictions coming back from injury

Right now we have marginal NBA players like Semi Ojeye, Shane Larkin, Daniel Theis playing a combined 35 minutes/game. Come playoff time they'll extend starter minutes and have better players out there longer.

JasonJohnHorn
11-21-2017, 09:54 AM
This is unsustainable. Teams will be watching tape and be better prepared moving forward.

But this is incredible. Keep in mind, that T-Mac Houston team (I believe without Yao who was out due to injury) went on a crazy win streak even longer than this and didn't even get out of the first round (though I think they had some injuries kicking around that year if memory serves me correct).

Early regular season. Great coaching, strong, unselfish players. They've come into the season prepared. Need a couple of games to adjust to Hayward being out. Other teams are just getting their $#!t together.

60+ wins seems certain, but they'll come down, just like A-God's 3pt%.

Yanks All Day
11-21-2017, 10:00 AM
The Celtics will slow down a little eventually, but this is a legitimate 55-60 win team. Boston is very good defensively, and defense tends to travel very well. If they can sustain this level of defense all season, they're going to be in a lot of close games with very good teams. Their main benefit is they have probably the best late-game player in basketball with Kyrie Irving. He'll win them a whole lot more close games than he'll lose them. Boston's combination of youth, athleticism, willingness / ability to defend, and superior coaching is going to make them a very successful team.

However, I think it's an Eastern Conference Finals team at best at the moment. When push comes to shove, I'm just not taking a 19 year old Jayson Tatum and 21 year old Jaylen Brown against a LeBron James team 4 times in 7 games. They're showing maturity beyond their years, but I do think this team would come up a little short against Cleveland, which is nothing to sneeze at. Boston has an immensely talented young team with a bright future. I just think it's going to be another year before they're beating LeBron.

warfelg
11-21-2017, 10:21 AM
FWIW the discussion was more around winning low scoring tight games than anything else.

Scoots
11-21-2017, 10:33 AM
As long as they don't get hurt and stay 100% focused on D they can sustain it.

WaDe03
11-21-2017, 10:34 AM
Theyll sustain it until they play the Cavs again probably.

Young$avage
11-21-2017, 10:39 AM
Atlanta Hawks.

mightybosstone
11-21-2017, 11:07 AM
They're a very good basketball team with an otherworldly defense, but I can't imagine that a team as mediocre as they are offensively (18th in ORtg, 20th in PPG) can keep up anything close to this winning pace long-term. I see them as a 55-60 win team with an outside shot to top 60 wins.

We also have to factor in potential injuries as both Kyrie and Horford aren't exactly known as iron men in this league. Kyrie has never played more than 75 games in his career, and Horford almost always misses a few games here or there.

Green_Monster
11-21-2017, 11:24 AM
Their defense will keep them in pretty much every game. Before last night, Bostonís bench shot 17% combined over 3 the previous three games. They won those games by 7, 4, and 11 respectively. Once Marcus Smart goes back to his career average shooting percentages (still not good), the bench will be better. Almost scary to think how good theyíd be if they had Hayward taking Smartís shots and the minutes of Ojeleye/Larkin/etc.

hugepatsfan
11-21-2017, 11:26 AM
They're a very good basketball team with an otherworldly defense, but I can't imagine that a team as mediocre as they are offensively (18th in ORtg, 20th in PPG) can keep up anything close to this winning pace long-term. I see them as a 55-60 win team with an outside shot to top 60 wins.

We also have to factor in potential injuries as both Kyrie and Horford aren't exactly known as iron men in this league. Kyrie has never played more than 75 games in his career, and Horford almost always misses a few games here or there.

I expect the offense to pickup. Morris is still being limited minutes wise and him taking time from guys like Theis or Ojeyele will improve the offense. Also, Kyrie has some clutch moments but overall he hasn't been great offensively. I also think Smart will regress to the mean which as bad as he's been shooting is actually a big improvement despite him still not being a good shooter lol

Also, in regards to injuries. Kyrie missed a full game and almost all of one. Horford missed two full games. So what they've done so far is still with some injury time factored in for those guys (what would project to 9 games missed each).

mightybosstone
11-21-2017, 11:50 AM
I expect the offense to pickup. Morris is still being limited minutes wise and him taking time from guys like Theis or Ojeyele will improve the offense. Also, Kyrie has some clutch moments but overall he hasn't been great offensively. I also think Smart will regress to the mean which as bad as he's been shooting is actually a big improvement despite him still not being a good shooter lol

Also, in regards to injuries. Kyrie missed a full game and almost all of one. Horford missed two full games. So what they've done so far is still with some injury time factored in for those guys (what would project to 9 games missed each).

They might get a little better offensively, but I think they kind of are what they are on that side of the floor. Getting a little more out of their role players isn't going to equate to them being a top 10 offense all of a sudden. And I think they'll come to a point where some offensive teams shoot lights out and start winning some games against them.

And that probably sounds overly negative, but I still definitely think they're a top 3-5 team in the league and should easily top 55 wins and get the top seed in the East. Another thing to factor in as well is that the Celtics already have a four-game lead on the No. 2 seed in the East after less than a quarter of the season. If that margin continues to grow, I can totally see Stevens resting some of his guys.

IndyRealist
11-21-2017, 11:58 AM
FWIW the discussion was more around winning low scoring tight games than anything else.

I think that's the kind of game you have to play when you have a superior 1v1 player like Irving. Keep the score low and prevent them from scoring, and those 4 or 5 plays where Irving just flat out beats his man count for significantly more. In a high scoring, free flowing game, Irving may drop 40 but so will the opponent.

hugepatsfan
11-21-2017, 12:51 PM
I think BOS needs to add a bench scorer on the perimeter. Because of Smrt's versatility to guard 1-3 and Rozier being able to guard both guard spots I think it can really be any position.

Right now the rotation is:

Kyrie / Rozier
Brown / Smart
Tatum / Ojeleye
Morris / Theis
Horford / Baynes

Add a scorer and then use either Ojeleye or Theis as the 10th man (depending on if you need rebounding or perimeter defense).

homie564
11-21-2017, 01:10 PM
I think BOS needs to add a bench scorer on the perimeter. Because of Smrt's versatility to guard 1-3 and Rozier being able to guard both guard spots I think it can really be any position.

Right now the rotation is:

Kyrie / Rozier
Brown / Smart
Tatum / Ojeleye
Morris / Theis
Horford / Baynes

Add a scorer and then use either Ojeleye or Theis as the 10th man (depending on if you need rebounding or perimeter defense).

Theis has been pretty awesome rebounding off the bench. Iím with you on needing an ďice manĒ as Iíve said in the past lol. They need someone who can come off the bench and shoot threes and run the offense when Kyrie is resting


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LA4life24/8
11-21-2017, 01:16 PM
This rate is not sustainable no. They've won 16 in a row. Barring any injury in sure they'll slow down a bit at some point but they'll still likely finish #1 in the east and have 58-62 wins.

I think stephens deserves a lot of credit though. Hes gettin the most out of every guy and most guys playin significant mins are young dudes. Hate to say but boston has a brigjt future

smith&wesson
11-21-2017, 01:59 PM
All depends on health... they need pretty much everyone to stay healthy as they can't absorb another injury to a key player (Irving, Horford, Brown, Tatum, Smart)

With that said I think they will get 60+ wins this year.

aman_13
11-21-2017, 02:01 PM
I believe they are playing over their heads.

CELTICS4LYFE
11-21-2017, 04:53 PM
Theis has been pretty awesome rebounding off the bench. Iím with you on needing an ďice manĒ as Iíve said in the past lol. They need someone who can come off the bench and shoot threes and run the offense when Kyrie is resting


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Lou Williams would be nice 😁

IndyRealist
11-21-2017, 04:55 PM
This is like the only good thread in the last 3 days. I'm going back to watching Punisher.

FlashBolt
11-21-2017, 05:19 PM
This is like the only good thread in the last 3 days. I'm going back to watching Punisher.

ill bring the popcorn

zn23
11-21-2017, 07:43 PM
You just have a feeling that if they sustain an injury to one of their starters theyre in big trouble. The bench is still the weakest part of their team and they are 6 players deep at best

hugepatsfan
11-21-2017, 08:15 PM
You just have a feeling that if they sustain an injury to one of their starters theyre in big trouble. The bench is still the weakest part of their team and they are 6 players deep at best

I think theyíre easily 8 deep.

Kyrie / Rozier
Brown / Smart
Tatum
Morris
Horford / Baynes

I expect the DPE to get a 9th guy they can feel good about.