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View Full Version : The Houston Rockets and the 3-point shot



valade16
11-15-2017, 06:08 PM
So last year the Rockets set the record for most 3-point attempts by a team at 40.3 per game, 6 more than the next closest team (33.9 by the Cavs).

This year the Rockets have increased their average to 44.5, which is 11.5 more than the next closest team (32.9 by the Mavs). 4 Rockets players are in the top 11 for 3PTA.

Currently, the Rockets are shooting 34% from 3, which is 26th best in the NBA.

Is this the future of basketball? Does it make sense to shoot so many more 3 pointers, even at such a %?

What are your thoughts on this strategy? Do you think more teams will go to this extreme?

aman_13
11-15-2017, 06:41 PM
They were really tough to watch last night. I guess it looks good when the shots go in.

mightybosstone
11-15-2017, 06:42 PM
I get your point, but I don't think this sample size is necessarily indicative of their shooting ability as a team. One of their better 3-point shooters and probably their best creator in Chris Paul has played one-half of a healthy basketball game so far this season. And guys like Gordon and Anderson, who take an incredibly high volume of shots, are shooting well below their averages from last season, when they were middle of the pack as a team at 35.7 percent.

But even with the poor 3-point percentage, they're second in the league in offensive rating. Last year, when they were a little better at the 3-point line, they posted one of the 10 highest offensive ratings in the history of the NBA. So, yeah, there's definitely a method to their madness.

ewing
11-15-2017, 06:44 PM
I hope not but unless the NBA takes away that force field they put bt any on the perimeter and the defense


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HandsOnTheWheel
11-15-2017, 06:46 PM
It's what the league has been morphing into for quite some time. Started with the Heat and those small-ball lineups as opposed to the traditional positions for decades. Then, evolved with the Warriors use of the best shooter ever (Curry), add another great shooter in Thompson and whoever else was there (Speights, Barbosa, Barnes). They have been the model for winning for the past 3 years because of it, and it's what all these young kids are trying to model their game off.

On another note though I think you'll always the gritty technical coaches like the Pops and Thibs, (who's teams are in the bottom five this season of 3 pointers attempted, yet have found success so far.). Knicks, Wizards, Grizzlies, and Blazers also rank in the bottom 10 for 3's attempted and have been good too.

All in all, GS's core will fizzle eventually and we may see coaches reverting back to traditional styles of basketball once they do. GS is somewhat of an anomaly in a sense that they were able to build such a force/put all the pieces together at once, and revolutionize the game so quickly. I think something to remember is that the majority of players in the league struggle to consistently make 3's and I think it can be argued that it hurts the team more than helps the team when players attempt/miss a lot of 3's, (in accordance to shooting as many 3's as can be.)

Look, will three-point shooting play a big role in the future of the league? Yes. Will it become an extreme in the future like Rockets are this year? Nah.

mngopher35
11-15-2017, 06:51 PM
I wonder if the rate at which they are taking 3's is what is opening things up for them to have the highest 2 pt % in the league?

Looking at the average EFG for the league even at the shooting % currently their 3 pt% has them right in line with the average (and as mentioned they could easily improve here). Using it at such a high volume probably opens up the defense throughout the game as well likely making running the offense/attacking easier when the time is right.

I think they are just kind of leading the way in trying to find out how high volume of 3 pt shots can change things and open it up. The more success they have the more likely it is to be followed by others but obviously the game is/has been moving towards that either way to some extent.

valade16
11-15-2017, 06:55 PM
I get your point, but I don't think this sample size is necessarily indicative of their shooting ability as a team. One of their better 3-point shooters and probably their best creator in Chris Paul has played one-half of a healthy basketball game so far this season. And guys like Gordon and Anderson, who take an incredibly high volume of shots, are shooting well below their averages from last season, when they were middle of the pack as a team at 35.7 percent.

But even with the poor 3-point percentage, they're second in the league in offensive rating. Last year, when they were a little better at the 3-point line, they posted one of the 10 highest offensive ratings in the history of the NBA. So, yeah, there's definitely a method to their madness.

That was sort of my point (and maybe it came out wrong). Even shooting such a low % they are an offensive juggernaught. They are shooting so many more 3's than any other team that even with a drastically lower % they're still a more efficient team because of it. If they start shooting better, it only justifies their use of the 3 even more.

What I was trying to ask is, do you think in the future this will be the norm? That teams will start shooting 40 or even 50 3's a game simply because of how efficient the shot is?

FlashBolt
11-15-2017, 07:00 PM
It's becoming a league of efficiency and results rather than traditional style of basketball. It's why you see players slimming down and are quicker because they don't require the same bulky physique of previous generations. Houston's greatest weapon also becomes their greatest weakness and you see that when a team slows down and starts punishing them in other areas. I can see them beating any team if they just knock down enough threes at a high clip rate but Warriors just did other things better than the Rockets and that's where shooting alone can't save you. But yeah, this is pretty much the norm and based on analytics, it isn't slowing down. Teams are chucking more and more threes. Two threes = three two's and a possession = a possession. Props to Houston for starting this, though. It probably started with D'Antoni during his Phoenix days but this team is taking it to a whole other level. You know what would be amazing to watch? Klay+Harden on the same team.

FlashBolt
11-15-2017, 07:07 PM
That was sort of my point (and maybe it came out wrong). Even shooting such a low % they are an offensive juggernaught. They are shooting so many more 3's than any other team that even with a drastically lower % they're still a more efficient team because of it. If they start shooting better, it only justifies their use of the 3 even more.

What I was trying to ask is, do you think in the future this will be the norm? That teams will start shooting 40 or even 50 3's a game simply because of how efficient the shot is?

You need the personnel and that's probably the most difficult part. Any team can jack 50 threes but if you don't have someone driving the offense and players being able to shoot it, it won't work. I mean, the most underrated part of this Rockets offense is honestly Clint Capela. He punishes you on the inside when you try and cover the three point line and his offensive rebounding is why you have to get back on the boards after every defensive play you make on the three.

mightybosstone
11-15-2017, 07:29 PM
That was sort of my point (and maybe it came out wrong). Even shooting such a low % they are an offensive juggernaught. They are shooting so many more 3's than any other team that even with a drastically lower % they're still a more efficient team because of it. If they start shooting better, it only justifies their use of the 3 even more.

What I was trying to ask is, do you think in the future this will be the norm? That teams will start shooting 40 or even 50 3's a game simply because of how efficient the shot is?

I do think this is the norm for the league moving forward. Look at the top four teams last season in 3-pointers made per game: Houston, Cleveland, Boston and Golden State. That's four of the teams that finished with the five best records in the league last season. And that trend is pretty consistent over the years: teams at the top of the standings are more likely to take and make more 3-pointers.

That being said, I do think the Rockets are simply at the far, far end of the spectrum. Pretty much everybody on their roster aside from their centers is a 3-point weapon, and Morey/D'Antoni have built the team that way on purpose. Most teams can't afford to take that many 3-pointers and get away with it, and Morey's teams have continued to shoot more and more threes every season as his personnel has morphed to allow for more 3-point attempts.

Also, I don't think you necessarily have to be an elite 3-point shooting team to be a serious contender, as the Spurs continue to show year in and year out, finishing around the middle of the pack in terms of 3-pointers made. Elite defensive squads with a superstar or two and at least competent 3-point shooting will pretty much always be in contention every season.

Scoots
11-15-2017, 10:06 PM
So last year the Rockets set the record for most 3-point attempts by a team at 40.3 per game, 6 more than the next closest team (33.9 by the Cavs).

This year the Rockets have increased their average to 44.5, which is 11.5 more than the next closest team (32.9 by the Mavs). 4 Rockets players are in the top 11 for 3PTA.

Currently, the Rockets are shooting 34% from 3, which is 26th best in the NBA.

Is this the future of basketball? Does it make sense to shoot so many more 3 pointers, even at such a %?

What are your thoughts on this strategy? Do you think more teams will go to this extreme?

33% is the mendoza line so as long as they are over that they are at a reasonable 1.0+ PPP.

History suggests that shooting more 3s reduces accuracy but Curry proved that isn't always true. When Walton was coaching the Warriors he was always urging Curry to take 15 3s a night.

I don't think it's going anywhere, but I don't think most teams will go quite as far as the Rockets.

tredigs
11-15-2017, 11:53 PM
Also, I don't think you necessarily have to be an elite 3-point shooting team to be a serious contender, as the Spurs continue to show year in and year out, finishing around the middle of the pack in terms of 3-pointers made. Elite defensive squads with a superstar or two and at least competent 3-point shooting will pretty much always be in contention every season.

The Spurs have been in the middle of the pack in attempts, but always at the top in 3pt%. Not once in this decade have they finished outside the top-5 in 3pt%, and their ability create open looks and drill 3's is a fundamental reason for their success.

I think the ultra-high volume 3pt shooting from a team like the Rockets gets exposed in the playoffs as defenses clamp down and easier shots are tougher to come by, but yes, obviously the 3pt shot is far, far more impactful then the 2pt shot. Curry has a higher career 3pt% then AI's overall FG%, and it's just below Kobe's career FG%. It's a major reason why he's massively more impactful as an offensive force.

Raps18-19 Champ
11-16-2017, 12:15 AM
The league will take more shots as a whole but I don't think many will crack 40 shots over the course of a season in the next 10-20 years. The defense will just adjust.

Raps18-19 Champ
11-16-2017, 12:30 AM
NBA should adopt FIBA rules on basket interference so big men can be more relevant.

Easy points to tap the ball in while its on the rim.

M.L.G.A.
11-16-2017, 12:55 AM
It's so easy to defend a jump shooting team, man or zone...don't double Harden and stay on everyone else...

FlashBolt
11-16-2017, 01:02 AM
It's so easy to defend a jump shooting team, man or zone...don't double Harden and stay on everyone else...

It ain't that simple. You're going to have to most likely double Harden and it isn't like those shooters are standing still. Capela is an absolute threat in the paint so it's not as if you can just stand there when he's setting picks.

Heediot
11-16-2017, 06:10 AM
I hope not but unless the NBA takes away that force field they put bt any on the perimeter and the defense


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Exactly. The three point barrage trend started in Europe, but if you watch the Euroleague now, the 3-point defense is so much better because the defensive rules are different. Teams close out faster on the shooter and you have to earn your attempts more.

NFLAccess
11-16-2017, 06:49 AM
I'm a Rockets fan and got a saying "When their hittting, we're winning. They do shoot a alot of 3s. It'll be nice to to get the ball to Capela inside. If it's not us shooting threes, it's the pick and roll with Harden and Capela finishing with a dunk or Harden driving and getting to the basket. Other than that Anderson is a 3 point shpoter, Eric Gordon is a 3 point shooter. Maybe it'll change when Paul comes back.

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europagnpilgrim
11-16-2017, 09:32 AM
It's becoming a league of efficiency and results rather than traditional style of basketball. It's why you see players slimming down and are quicker because they don't require the same bulky physique of previous generations. Houston's greatest weapon also becomes their greatest weakness and you see that when a team slows down and starts punishing them in other areas. I can see them beating any team if they just knock down enough threes at a high clip rate but Warriors just did other things better than the Rockets and that's where shooting alone can't save you. But yeah, this is pretty much the norm and based on analytics, it isn't slowing down. Teams are chucking more and more threes. Two threes = three two's and a possession = a possession. Props to Houston for starting this, though. It probably started with D'Antoni during his Phoenix days but this team is taking it to a whole other level. You know what would be amazing to watch? Klay+Harden on the same team.

Sometimes you outsmart yourself on basic bball talk

the league has always been about efficiency, Wilt proved that way back when teams shot 38-40pct and he blew those percentages out the water in the 60's, and he said in his interviews that if you take the most shots you should make at least half so he was being efficient even back then when it was harder to do because of the infant stages, traditional style is what they are trying to go back to when that so called 60's era pace was so fast and you seen 110+pts at will, well that is what they are trying to go back to, the tradition of the big score games

players are slimming down because as you age the worst thing a athlete can be is carrying extra weight regardless how dominant they may seem, Shaq is prime example of that

players are slimming down because they realize a vegan/electric foods style way of eating is the premium way to go which elevates the mind/body at highest levels, but I am sure you will call conspiracy theory on that as well like you do with all the other basic in your face information

IndyRealist
11-16-2017, 09:51 AM
It's so easy to defend a jump shooting team, man or zone...don't double Harden and stay on everyone else...

That's when Harden drops 50 on you.

ewing
11-16-2017, 09:56 AM
Exactly. The three point barrage trend started in Europe, but if you watch the Euroleague now, the 3-point defense is so much better because the defensive rules are different. Teams close out faster on the shooter and you have to earn your attempts more.

Itís interesting watching frank adjust on the Knicks. He is s heck of a defender who canít put the ball in the hole yet, I hope, but he clearly is having to adjust the way the nba game is called away from the basket


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Scoots
11-16-2017, 11:26 AM
It's so easy to defend a jump shooting team, man or zone...don't double Harden and stay on everyone else...

People have been having issues guarding the Warriors.

rhino17
11-17-2017, 12:01 PM
It's so easy to defend a jump shooting team, man or zone...don't double Harden and stay on everyone else...

That doesn't work on teams like Houston or Golden State that also have 3 guys that can beat almost anoyone off the dribble to go with the shooting.

Driven
11-17-2017, 12:37 PM
I like the strategy for the Rockets because they are trying to win a Championship, even if it's unlikely. They have to get an advantage over the Warriors somehow. Might as well take a chance by taking some analytics to the extreme. Also, don't overlook that their system also incorporates high percentage 2-point shots.

I do think that the Rockets have looked much more impressive this season than last, perhaps in part due to the increase in three pointers.

FlashBolt
11-17-2017, 01:36 PM
Sometimes you outsmart yourself on basic bball talk

the league has always been about efficiency, Wilt proved that way back when teams shot 38-40pct and he blew those percentages out the water in the 60's, and he said in his interviews that if you take the most shots you should make at least half so he was being efficient even back then when it was harder to do because of the infant stages, traditional style is what they are trying to go back to when that so called 60's era pace was so fast and you seen 110+pts at will, well that is what they are trying to go back to, the tradition of the big score games

players are slimming down because as you age the worst thing a athlete can be is carrying extra weight regardless how dominant they may seem, Shaq is prime example of that

players are slimming down because they realize a vegan/electric foods style way of eating is the premium way to go which elevates the mind/body at highest levels, but I am sure you will call conspiracy theory on that as well like you do with all the other basic in your face information

So why is it the three point shot hasn't exploded until now? Care to explain why it took so long for a team to realize that the three point shooting is vital to winning games now? Thanks for reiteraring what I said about players slimming down. You're the conspiracist nut here. Can you quit replying to me, please? You literally didn't dispute a single thing I said. It'll never go back to the 60's pace of scoring. No one wants to watch that nonsense of "get as close to the basket" every single possession. Maybe you do because you are like 67 years old but NBA would lose so many viewers if they did that.

ewing
11-17-2017, 01:40 PM
be nice