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View Full Version : How long before guys are averaging .500 from the arc?



JasonJohnHorn
09-10-2017, 05:30 PM
On 8 occasions players have averaged over .500 from the arc. Four of these instances came when the league moved the 3pt line in so that the Bulls would have a chance against the Rockets when Jordan returned (jk).

That means only on four occasions have players shot over .500 from the current 3pt line:

1. Kyle Korver: he shot .536 on 2.1 shots per game in 2010
2. Jon Sundvold (?): he shot 5.22 on 1.4 shots per game in 89
3. Jason Kapono: shot .514 on 3.1 shots per game in 2007
4. Steve Kerr: shot .507 in 1990 on 1.8 attempts per game


These guys were not primary scorers. They are generally the types of guys who pick up open shots when the defences break down, hence their higher percentages.

However, we've seen primary shooter with significant defense hounding them shoot over .450 (Curry did it taking over 11 shots a game) and even more shooting over .400 (Klay shoots over .400 taking over 8 shots a game).


So the questions are as follows. First: WTF is Jon Sundvold, how did he not get more shots, and why do I not know who he is? (jk) And second (the real question), how long before we start seeing primary options drop three's at .500? Or will we ever? Are Curry and Klay anomalies? Or the new standard?

IndyRealist
09-10-2017, 05:58 PM
#2 and #4 are symptomatic of what came up in another thread: In the 80's and 90's the 3pt line was considered a gimmick by coaches because it was imported from the ABA. Very few coaches at the time recognized the advantage they were willingly giving up.

To answer one of the questions, Sundvold seems to be a career backup PG who couldn't do anything besides shoot 3s.

Scoots
09-10-2017, 11:26 PM
If they make the 3pt line shorter again like they did in the 90s there will be 50 guys shooting .500 next year.

Since it's happened before I'm sure it will happen in the future, but it's probably going to be a catch and shoot player doing it.

LaVar Ball
09-11-2017, 12:55 AM
Mah boy gonna do it this yr!


ROOKIE OF THE YEAR!


I've called it into existence!

Chronz
09-11-2017, 09:07 AM
Never. There is a cap on this just like there is with ft shooting

IKnowHoops
09-11-2017, 10:00 AM
Props to Rihanna for that quote...that she actually knew what she was talking about.

Hawkeye15
09-11-2017, 11:00 AM
I don't think it will ever be the norm. You will continue to get a sniper who doesn't take anything but open looks to bump over it now and then, but nobody of usage will shoot over it.

tredigs
09-11-2017, 11:52 AM
There's a law of diminishing returns on shooting. >50% from 3 will never happen as a norm barring rule changes that essentially negate perimeter defense or another re-shortening of the line.

Chronz
09-11-2017, 12:48 PM
Props to Rihanna for that quote...that she actually knew what she was talking about.

I didn't know if it was real or not but seemed funny. What makes it hilarious is that kd lusted over Rihanna in the past, wanting to marry her and ****. You know it's sad when your dream girl trashes your lack of game

JasonJohnHorn
09-11-2017, 09:44 PM
Never. There is a cap on this just like there is with ft shooting

Well... FT is a little different, but there are a host of guys who shoot over 80% every season. Lots of guys who shoot over 85% even.

I'm not saying it is going to happen, but in the 80's and 90's, if a guy who 33% he was decent. Guys who shot in the high 30's were amazing. Now those guys are average and 40% is the gold standard.

I feel like with this being the direction the league is going in, more and more kids/coaches/young players are going to be looking at this aspect of the game, just like when Jordan popularize that slash/dunk/mid-range game.

If we have a generation of kids trying to shoot 3's like Curry and Klay, we'll end up with some great 3-pt shooters.

I don't know where it's going to cap off, but I feel like having some guys in the next ten years who are running at .500 with a high volume of shots isn't unreasonable.

lakers4sho
09-11-2017, 09:48 PM
when natural selection starts favoring it

LA4life24/8
09-11-2017, 10:14 PM
I think its highly unlikely that someone will consistently avg 50% from 3 because the sheer volume at which the most proficient 3 pt shooters shoot said shot

It could be done by guys who don't attempt many 3s sure but ie someone like steph (or any other high volume shooter) prolly wont just because they take so many it diminishes their chances

Jeffy25
09-11-2017, 10:32 PM
Never. There is a cap on this just like there is with ft shooting

Exactly this.

You'll see some players do it here and there. Just like you'll see very high free throw guys. But it'll never be the league average without it changing distance.

JasonJohnHorn
09-12-2017, 08:51 AM
I think its highly unlikely that someone will consistently avg 50% from 3 because the sheer volume at which the most proficient 3 pt shooters shoot said shot

It could be done by guys who don't attempt many 3s sure but ie someone like steph (or any other high volume shooter) prolly wont just because they take so many it diminishes their chances


If somebody had said to you ten years ago: we're going to see teams first options putting up 10 or more 3's a game and averaging .450 while doing it, would you have believed that? Knowing that the only guys to post that kind of efficiency were spot-up shooters taking open shots when franchise players were being double teamed?


Jeffy25 You'll see some players do it here and there. Just like you'll see very high free throw guys. But it'll never be the league average without it changing distance.


I'm not suggesting that this will ever be the league average. But the league average has gone up dramatically. That means that top tier talent has gone up, so the questions is: are we going to have guys (as in a half dozen or so in the league) who post a percentage around .500?

That's different than "Is the league average going to be .500.

YAALREADYKNO
09-12-2017, 09:05 AM
Never. There is a cap on this just like there is with ft shooting

That Rihanna quote is funny af lmao

Scoots
09-12-2017, 09:19 AM
Curry's best window of shooting over .500 from 3 is 14 games ... so over 14 games, with his crazy number of 3 attempts he averaged making over half. 14 games to 82 is a long trip at that extreme rate. That said, I could see more players doing it when they are not the primary ball handler and doing it off the dribble but off catch and shoots, even with 3+ attempts a game.

Yeah, it'll happen more often than it has in the past.

Sssmush
09-12-2017, 08:57 PM
I don't think it will ever be the norm. You will continue to get a sniper who doesn't take anything but open looks to bump over it now and then, but nobody of usage will shoot over it.

I'd say it's not impossible. I mean if the game keeps evolving the way it is, and new look offenses led by stronger and taller players with lethal 3-point accuracy start to emerge (Lebron for instance showed flashes in the Finals this year) then teams may be able to take fuller advantage of the greater floor space opened up by advanced play beyond the arc.

Player accuracy on unguarded or wide open jump shots would be the ceiling I think. So say if Klay Thompson for instance took 1,000 wide open unguarded jumpers from 3 in practice, that FG% would probably be what the ceiling is.

Because let's say if players start to shoot more and more effectively from deep and teams continue to get more efficient at playing the game out to to 40 feet. The offenses would seem to have an inherent advantage because the defenders have to chase the players around, some of whom might be much taller or faster, AND really effective passing could have an even more pronounced advantage the farther the spacing is.

Actually right now this imaginary 3-point line works against the offense in a way, because the defenders are guarding players relative to that line. Think about for instance how defenses will "trap" a guard with the ball against the halfcourt line. The 3-point line (measured outward) essentially stops the shooter right in front of the defender and once the shooter gets ready to shoot it is a straight line defensive attack. But once accuracy and efficiency effectively move say 8-10 feet back from the 3-point line, it's more difficult. Like think about the way that good players can get off 10-12 footers with a variety of moves. And screens. Pick and roll plays executed above the 3-point line. Or lightning fast 4-corners tactics that end with a wide open 3 from 30 or a wide open dunk down low.

It just seems like if that raw number of wide open FG accuracy goes up, then great players in really great next-gen offenses will be able to approach that number

JordansBulls
09-13-2017, 12:37 AM
Won't happen. If it didn't happen in the strongest era in the 90's it won't happen ever.

Sssmush
09-13-2017, 01:25 AM
Won't happen. If it didn't happen in the strongest era in the 90's it won't happen ever.

uh, ok.

I mean back then announcers were probably proclaiming that no one would ever hit 300 3's.

Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if a player or multiple players hit 800+ 3 pointers in a season within the next 5-10 years.

Of course there could be some new defensive innovation. But really it's like missile or artillery technology throughout history probably. For instance as artillery or missiles or sniper rifles improved, then attackers just moved farther and farther away from their targets and continued to hit them with greater and greater accuracy.

The increased distance from the target has significant advantages because it makes it harder to defend. So as accuracy increases from range, the advantage will just exponentially increase.

Scoots
09-13-2017, 01:42 PM
uh, ok.

I mean back then announcers were probably proclaiming that no one would ever hit 300 3's.

Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if a player or multiple players hit 800+ 3 pointers in a season within the next 5-10 years.

Of course there could be some new defensive innovation. But really it's like missile or artillery technology throughout history probably. For instance as artillery or missiles or sniper rifles improved, then attackers just moved farther and farther away from their targets and continued to hit them with greater and greater accuracy.

The increased distance from the target has significant advantages because it makes it harder to defend. So as accuracy increases from range, the advantage will just exponentially increase.

800+ 3s in a season. IF you did that and managed to shoot an incredible 45% that's 22 3pt attempts a game ... that is essentially Westbrook level of usage with none of the shots being 2s.

I shy away from absolutes ... but I can't see 800+ 3s made in a season ever.