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View Full Version : NBA has draft lottery reform under "serious consideration"



warfelg
09-08-2017, 03:41 PM
Story:
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20621318/reform-nba-draft-lottery-voted-17-18-season

Whats on the table:
~Aggressive pursuit of reform to start in 2019
~Flat odds for the top 3 team
~"Significant" decrease in the gap from the 5th worse (8.8%) and 1st (25%)
~No 1 can drop as low as 5 (from 4), No 2 can drop to 6 (from 5), and No 3 can drop to 7
~The previous means that the top 4 spots will be lotto'd out as opposed to the top 4

Another measure that isn't likely to make it is if you get the #1 pick, you cannot get a top 3 pick in the next draft. Not included in the article is they don't expect that to pass because teams are questioning how that works with owning other teams picks, swaps, and if you would be able to trade into the #1 pick if you had the previous #1 pick.

MILLERHIGHLIFE
09-08-2017, 03:53 PM
Somebody else on this topic said either do a snake draft where if your first one draft your last another. Or try baseball with so much money to go after rookies. Lowest team gets the most to spend for rookie pool. Can use your whole rookie cap pool for 1 guy or 4 guys. Or carry a option of 50% of that cap over to next season for a bigger swag money to sign a guy. I know the league mentioned the "wheel" lottery as well. But i'm sure if the Warriors landed #1 pick the league would go nuts. Also not sure how it would work if you owned other teams picks. If the wheel or snake draft or whatever would carry over. But the rookie pool is kinda cool idea. But the worst team gets the most for a allotment pool. But then that still be the same as it is now. If your bottom 4 teams for like 5 years then a weak draft ya carry your 50% payroll rookie money to another season then it get all crazy.

warfelg
09-08-2017, 04:42 PM
The only reason that works is because the MLB has like 9,000 round in their draft.

Dade County
09-08-2017, 05:23 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtL8kGXp0jk


If this happens, that means the Nets pick that the Cavs just got, can not be a top 5 pick no matter what. The pick would be pushed to the 7th or 8th pick.

This would be crazy.

hugepatsfan
09-08-2017, 05:32 PM
So instead of the 3rd worst team tanking to be the worst you're going to have the 6th and 7th and 8th worst teams tanking to get into that top 5 tier.

Combined with the imbalance of talent between the East and the West this is going to only further how laughable the East playoffs are. The team in the 8 seed of the East at the trade deadline is going to be looking to sell because they're only 5 games up on having tied for the best lottery odds lmao

I've said before and I'll say it again - best thing for tanking is to just go by record. You'll have a few teams each year fighting for the #1 pick but there won't be incentive for the teams further down (or up I guess) in the standings to tank. All the lottery does is broaden the tanking spectrum.

valade16
09-08-2017, 05:37 PM
I like the idea someone proposed a long time ago where draft order is determined by most wins after you have been officially eliminated from the playoffs.

So if your team is terrible they will likely get eliminated first and have more chances to get wins, but if they are that terrible they likely won't win much. Either way, you'd see a bunch of crappy teams desperate to win at the end of the season to get the most wins and get that #1 pick.

More-Than-Most
09-08-2017, 05:56 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtL8kGXp0jk


If this happens, that means the Nets pick that the Cavs just got, can not be a top 5 pick no matter what. The pick would be pushed to the 7th or 8th pick.

This would be crazy.

They couldnt just screw a team like that... I am sure there would be something in place.

dhopisthename
09-08-2017, 06:04 PM
They couldnt just screw a team like that... I am sure there would be something in place.

it wouldn't start till 2019. the pick would be fine.

warfelg
09-08-2017, 06:41 PM
So instead of the 3rd worst team tanking to be the worst you're going to have the 6th and 7th and 8th worst teams tanking to get into that top 5 tier.

Combined with the imbalance of talent between the East and the West this is going to only further how laughable the East playoffs are. The team in the 8 seed of the East at the trade deadline is going to be looking to sell because they're only 5 games up on having tied for the best lottery odds lmao

I've said before and I'll say it again - best thing for tanking is to just go by record. You'll have a few teams each year fighting for the #1 pick but there won't be incentive for the teams further down (or up I guess) in the standings to tank. All the lottery does is broaden the tanking spectrum.

Only the top 3, meaning the tanking is going to happen between 3-4-5.

What they are really looking to do is not make it a race for the bottom. By opening up the number of spots that are lotto'd and leveling the odds some at the bottom, they're hoping for less of a race to the very bottom. I think this really prevents it.

Kyben36
09-08-2017, 07:02 PM
I think that as somebody pointed out. nets pick would now be worth way less. I think that this is something that needs to be done. but it won't happen soon. it will probably take a few years to implement as it completely changed the stock of draft picks that have already been dealt

hugepatsfan
09-08-2017, 07:06 PM
Only the top 3, meaning the tanking is going to happen between 3-4-5.

What they are really looking to do is not make it a race for the bottom. By opening up the number of spots that are lotto'd and leveling the odds some at the bottom, they're hoping for less of a race to the very bottom. I think this really prevents it.

I'd rather have a race to the very bottom than a race to #3 though because a race to #3 will include more teams.

These were the lottery records last year:

20 (BRK)
24 (PHX)
26 (LAL)
28 (PHI)
29 (ORL)
31 (MIN)
31 (NYK)
32 (SAC)
33 (DAL)
34 (NO)
36 (CHA)
37 (DET)
40 (DEN)
41 (MIA)

You said in the OP they were gonna smooth out from #1-#5. So IMO, that gives serious incentive to get into that range. DET is the 12th team in that list and they're still only 8 games ahead of the #5 team. I think this new method would just encourage the back half of the lottery to try and get into the top 5 more than make the playoffs since the odds make it so much more beneficial to be in that spot.

warfelg
09-08-2017, 07:55 PM
Smooth out and decrease the difference between 1 and 5 is different.

Raidaz4Life
09-09-2017, 06:59 AM
I like the idea someone proposed a long time ago where draft order is determined by most wins after you have been officially eliminated from the playoffs.

So if your team is terrible they will likely get eliminated first and have more chances to get wins, but if they are that terrible they likely won't win much. Either way, you'd see a bunch of crappy teams desperate to win at the end of the season to get the most wins and get that #1 pick.

holy crap that's an incredible idea

Scoots
09-09-2017, 02:10 PM
Anybody know how to find the old thread where the lottery fixes were discussed at length earlier in the year?

Vee-Rex
09-09-2017, 02:46 PM
Anybody know how to find the old thread where the lottery fixes were discussed at length earlier in the year?

Do you know approximately when and/or what the title of the thread may have been?

Scoots
09-09-2017, 03:12 PM
I kind of like the method where teams draft other team's draft positions. Each team, in order of record from worst to first, get's to "draft" another team's pick next year. The worst team in the NBA would look at the prospects for the next year and select the team they think will be the worst, then the next team with do the same. That way each team will have no prospect of improving their draft position that year by tanking, only on selecting an earlier team to proxy for them in the next years draft. Bad teams still will have the best chance at getting a top pick (1 year delayed), with an incredibly small impetus to tank.

Kyben36
09-09-2017, 03:19 PM
I kind of like the method where teams draft other team's draft positions. Each team, in order of record from worst to first, get's to "draft" another team's pick next year. The worst team in the NBA would look at the prospects for the next year and select the team they think will be the worst, then the next team with do the same. That way each team will have no prospect of improving their draft position that year by tanking, only on selecting an earlier team to proxy for them in the next years draft. Bad teams still will have the best chance at getting a top pick (1 year delayed), with an incredibly small impetus to tank.

it's an interesting concept. prevents teams from themselves tanking.

so if I understand your theory right

worst record team selects which teams pick they want first. then second. so on
that next year. you get that teams pick. wherever it falls. (no lotery chances)
next year. the same thing happens. worst team gets first pick

Kyben36
09-09-2017, 03:20 PM
the only issue I see is how do you trade future picks. I suppose opposing teams could step in and chose the team they wants picks. ???

MILLERHIGHLIFE
09-09-2017, 03:55 PM
Anybody know how to find the old thread where the lottery fixes were discussed at length earlier in the year?

Draft wheel? That was kicked around.

Scoots
09-09-2017, 10:04 PM
the only issue I see is how do you trade future picks. I suppose opposing teams could step in and chose the team they wants picks. ???

Exactly. You trade your chance to select the team for the next year.

Scoots
09-09-2017, 10:04 PM
Draft wheel? That was kicked around.

There was a whole thread on several proposals.

IndyRealist
09-09-2017, 10:17 PM
I like the idea someone proposed a long time ago where draft order is determined by most wins after you have been officially eliminated from the playoffs.

So if your team is terrible they will likely get eliminated first and have more chances to get wins, but if they are that terrible they likely won't win much. Either way, you'd see a bunch of crappy teams desperate to win at the end of the season to get the most wins and get that #1 pick.
The issue with rewarding the best non-playoff team is that the teams that really need the #1 pick will have the least chance of getting it. They use a weighted lottery to help the bad teams get better, not help the middle teams make the playoffs.

LA4life24/8
09-10-2017, 12:29 AM
Part of their reform idea is grouping teams into tiers which in a different thread was my idea w flat rates for tiers. I like it. I also like the part about how no team can draft #1 consecutive years as well

warfelg
09-10-2017, 07:33 AM
The #1 pick in consecutive years is the hard one IMO.

I mean, theoretically speaking the Sixers could end up with 3 straight #1 picks.
2016 - Own pick.
2017 - Pick swap with Kings from 5 to 3 and trade 3+future pick to 1.
2018 - LAL pick could come in at number 1
2019 - Kings pick could come in at number 1

How do you regulate that? Teams aren't going to like that they can't trade up to #1. If you can't get #1 with a traded for pick the value of the pick is seriously dinged if people know you can't use it on #1.

Shammyguy3
09-10-2017, 12:13 PM
The issue with rewarding the best non-playoff team is that the teams that really need the #1 pick will have the least chance of getting it. They use a weighted lottery to help the bad teams get better, not help the middle teams make the playoffs.

But it would force really bad teams to go after free agents so they have a good enough chance of competing for top picks right?

cmellofan15
09-10-2017, 12:32 PM
The huge issue with grading teams on their record after they are eliminated from the playoffs is that teams like Miami last year weren't eliminated until the last game of the season. If a team goes 13-3 after playoff elimination and another goes 0-1 the incentive is to tank earlier on in the season.

Scoots
09-10-2017, 11:19 PM
A lot of ideas here:

http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?922867-How-to-fix-the-Nba-draft

Vinylman
09-12-2017, 08:27 AM
another stupid idea by the league... if you flatten the odds in the 1-5 range then more teams 6-10 are gonna tank even harder... is the nba really this ******* stupid... the talent disparity in this league is simple to understand and easy to fix...

1. Ineffective salary cap due to the following...

A. Cap on max salary
B. ******** exceptions like TPE's, MLE's, BAE's and Bird Rights (I include this exception for non-drafted players)

2. Inability to extend players whenever you want after their rookie deals (this is a ******* joke).

3. Current draft lottery not being a worse to best ... **** the lottery... its nothing more than a marketing gimmick to maintain interest in the league over the summer.