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View Full Version : The Ultimate GOAT List (Neutralized Stats)*Updated



Lionel20
07-24-2017, 09:26 AM
LINK AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE!!!

Each player is ranked according to individually estimated contribution, or Value Share.

My original concept of Value Shares is based on linear weights including Rosenbaum's Alternate Win Score. However after analyzing the advanced tracking stats from recent season I adopted my own weights. Because the metric still seemed to lack, especially in measuring individual defensive effectiveness, through my research I've implemented my own adjustments, most importantly to factor in defensive value not captured in the box score.

The Value Shares formula is a counting stat with a high correlation with wins (I can bore you with the details in a later post), it comprises of other details including my own recalculated Usg%, but significant adjustments are the reassessed box stats.

The first reassessment is the time period regulation, which covers among others things the change in pace, generally from decade to decade although I made some adjustments to mirror major NBA rule changes. It's fundamentally impossible to even start with comparing players across from different time periods without first forming a neutral period to serve as the common denominator. Generally, RPG, FTA in the 60s is higher than it is today, possibly due to pace. I didn't get into the "why" much, although there are very good explanations there. I simply took account of the league averages. The most important feature of the time period regulations, is of course which time period do I denominate all the box stats? In concluding my research, I found the early 90s to be the most neutral time period in NBA history to this point. By neutral I mean, the league averages and pace were fairly moderate, and "top-to-bottom" there was generally high level play from all positions.

That brings me to my next reassessment, the league quality adjustment. There are many factors that have affected the NBA quality of competition in my estimation: Expansion, Demographics, Rule Changes, etc. In my selection of the 90s as the most neutral period, the rules in particular allowed for a more balanced game. The lane dimensions compared to the early 60s, physicality compared to today's NBA (hand-checking, defending around screens, etc.), Rules governing offensive/defensive play in the paint, all allowed for a more quality game. If you were a poor defensive player, you were more likely to get exposed and exploited, if you were a great offensive talent, you were more likely to showcase your skill. In measuring League Quality, I used my original value share outcomes, which were based on Arturo Galleti's position adjustments.

Lastly,

*I applied a second pace adjustment to allocate the time period factor to each specific team's pace
*I prorated the adjusted box stats for strike-shortened seasons
*All Season stats totals include post season stats.
*I made slight adjustments in 2pt FG, FGA for pre-3pt NBA periods
*I made slight adjustments for Assists totals for pre-NBA/ABA merger seasons, it's my belief that scorekeepers were less generous during these periods
*70s ABA league quality = 60s NBA league quality
*Used multiple statistical models to estimate unavailable Box Stats
*GP are calculated as Total Minutes/36 = GP
etc.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSjcLr0yU7xAWqHHEl32VRehukUWDEGxjp2-90LIgkWqUsgWAeIDLQ6qm1hJNczXDMrCCDJ9maNC1oI/pubhtml

MarvinFinley
07-24-2017, 12:55 PM
I don't like the list.

tredigs
07-24-2017, 01:17 PM
Opened list: Saw Elton Brand and Larry Nance over Big O, Curry and Jerry West. Bill Russell, Isiah Thomas, Elgin Baylor and Rick Barry behind Alvin Adams and Mo Cheeks. We've got 6 time All Star Mitch Richmond (a guard in the West in the 90's) coming in almost exactly 200 slots behind 3 time All Star Kevin Johnson (a guard in the West in the 90's). Mitch had a 10 year prime where he only missed significant time once. KJ had a 9 year prime where he missed significant time in 4 of those seasons. There's countless "WTF?" entries littered around. I understand it's an algorithm and you're doing your best, but the list is a disaster.

Gritz
07-24-2017, 01:22 PM
Romeo better than Steve Nash?

You must be trollin

HandsOnTheWheel
07-24-2017, 02:44 PM
Chill out bro

jaydubb
07-24-2017, 06:14 PM
Kobe is obviously 16 spots too low

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

FlashBolt
07-24-2017, 07:22 PM
Lionel is 1000% smarter than the rest of us here with how he's able to come up with any of this stuff. I don't agree with the list but he's definitely not a troll.

tredigs
07-24-2017, 10:38 PM
Lionel is 1000% smarter than the rest of us here with how he's able to come up with any of this stuff. I don't agree with the list but he's definitely not a troll.

He's good at math, but terrible at application and the simple notion that you can not call something the "ULTIMATE GOAT LIST" and have Larry Nance and Elton Brand in the top 30 All Time 40+ slots ahead of the likes of Bill Russell haha. That means your formula is broken, and you need to get back to the drawing board (if your intention is making a formula for an ULTIMATE GOAT list). Carlos Boozer > Rick Barry and Steve Nash. Terrell Brandon > Allen Iverson. Word.

Lionel20
07-25-2017, 12:26 AM
Opened list: Saw Elton Brand and Larry Nance over Big O, Curry and Jerry West. Bill Russell, Isiah Thomas, Elgin Baylor and Rick Barry behind Alvin Adams and Mo Cheeks. We've got 6 time All Star Mitch Richmond (a guard in the West in the 90's) coming in almost exactly 200 slots behind 3 time All Star Kevin Johnson (a guard in the West in the 90's). Mitch had a 10 year prime where he only missed significant time once. KJ had a 9 year prime where he missed significant time in 4 of those seasons. There's countless "WTF?" entries littered around. I understand it's an algorithm and you're doing your best, but the list is a disaster.

I don't put much weight in All Star Game Appearances.

For example,
B.J. Armstrong was a top 5 vote-getter, starting PG for the EAST squad in '94. Feel free to check his numbers for that year. According the Value Shares, these PG's likely deserved a spot over B.J.

Mookie Blaylock
Mark Price
Anfernee Hardaway
Eric Murdock
Kenny Anderson
Muggsy Bogues

*all avg stats cited are adjusted

Kevin Johnson in his peak years '89 - '92, avg. 19.1 points, 10.3 Ast per-36, with high efficiency. Johnson was much better in his peak than Richmond, and his performance nearly twice as valuable than Richmond at any year during Richmond's career. In his peak period Johnson was a top-3 PG behind only Magic and Stockton.

Richmond from '88 - '98, was steady production-wise, avg. 21.5 pioints per-36. His peak years were arguably in the mid-90s. He was a top 3 SG in 1996 and 1997. But Richmond's overall level of performance didn't increase during this period as much as the elite performers at the SG position declined in my opinion.

In the 1990-91 Season 6 shot guards scored higher than Richmond his entire career:


Michael Jordan* 19.14
Clyde Drexler* 11.12
Reggie Miller* 8.88
Alvin Robertson 8.72
Hersey Hawkins 8.38
Joe Dumars* 8.37

In the 1995-96, 1996-97 regular seasons, no SG scored over 8 value shares. It wasn't really until the 2000-2001 season when Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, and Ray Allen came of age that the SG position began to produce more breakout performers.

Kevin Johnson peaked much higher at a time when his performance could be easily overshadowed by John Stockton, Magic Johnson, Terry Porter, Tim Hardaway, Mark Price, and Isiah Thomas.

Additionally, my value system awards playoff performances as bonus by combining it with regular season stats. Johnson logged 3043 more playoff minutes than Richmond did in his career. Johnson earned 10% of his 82 value shares from playoff performance.

tredigs
07-25-2017, 12:46 AM
I don't put much weight in All Star Game Appearances.

For example,
B.J. Armstrong was a top 5 vote-getter, starting PG for the EAST squad in '94. Feel free to check his numbers for that year. According the Value Shares, these PG's likely deserved a spot over B.J.

Mookie Blaylock
Mark Price
Anfernee Hardaway
Eric Murdock
Kenny Anderson
Muggsy Bogues

*all avg stats cited are adjusted

Kevin Johnson in his peak years '89 - '92, avg. 19.1 points, 10.3 Ast per-36, with high efficiency. Johnson was much better in his peak than Richmond, and his performance nearly twice as valuable than Richmond at any year during Richmond's career. In his peak period Johnson was a top-3 PG behind only Magic and Stockton.

Richmond from '88 - '98, was steady production-wise, avg. 21.5 pioints per-36. His peak years were arguably in the mid-90s. He was a top 3 SG in 1996 and 1997. But Richmond's overall level of performance didn't increase during this period as much as the elite performers at the SG position declined in my opinion.

In the 1990-91 Season 6 shot guards scored higher than Richmond his entire career:


Michael Jordan* 19.14
Clyde Drexler* 11.12
Reggie Miller* 8.88
Alvin Robertson 8.72
Hersey Hawkins 8.38
Joe Dumars* 8.37

In the 1995-96, 1996-97 regular seasons, no SG scored over 8 value shares. It wasn't really until the 2000-2001 season when Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, and Ray Allen came of age that the SG position began to produce more breakout performers.

Kevin Johnson peaked much higher at a time when his performance could be easily overshadowed by John Stockton, Magic Johnson, Terry Porter, Tim Hardaway, Mark Price, and Isiah Thomas.

Additionally, my value system awards playoff performances as bonus by combining it with regular season stats. Johnson logged 3043 more playoff minutes than Richmond did in his career. Johnson earned 10% of his 82 value shares from playoff performance.

Well, when you're both guards in the same conference at the same time (KJ came in during the 87-88 season and was done by '98, Mitch came in during the 88-89 season and was done by 2000), All Star and All-NBA appearances are telling of how their career shaped in relation to one another, yes. And with Mitch holding the edge in both, you would at the very least expect them to be within a similar range of each other. KJ imo had the better peak, but the 200 place difference is just not based in any reality that those who lived and watched the two during that time could back up when coupled with the eye/logic test.

This was just one random example due to them playing at the same time in the same conference though. I have listed far more that are much more egregious as it pertains to a "GOAT" list.

Lakers + Giants
07-25-2017, 12:55 AM
Pau > Dirk? Agreed :nod:

That's my boy PAU!

tredigs
07-25-2017, 03:26 AM
Explain to me Mo Cheeks at 57 and Pistol Pete Maravich at 257.

nastynice
07-25-2017, 04:02 AM
op, that's pretty savage. I get that there are a few names a little outta wack, but damn, considering you came up with a formula which generated that list, its pretty on point. Like the general list, take out a couple outliers, is actually pretty good. To me it is, I don't know. And if you kinda look at 80's on, it really does look pretty good, maybe older ball was just kinda played different.

I'll put it like this. Its good enough that I'm a lil freaked out right now

Ahriman
07-25-2017, 04:58 AM
I don't dispute the seriousness of this work but they are still some entries that makes me raise an eyebrow :laugh2:

Rondo just above Nash or even David freaking Lee above Reggie Miller

And Dumars is waaaay too low imo but I get that's an algorithm and not based on your opinion

eibram
07-25-2017, 05:21 AM
Glad to finally see Shaq as the highest ranked center BUT LeBron over Mike? Still not on board.

Kyben36
07-25-2017, 06:26 AM
Pau > Dirk? Agreed :nod:

That's my boy PAU!

Howard over both lol. there is something wrong with this list. I am not even sure Dwight makes the HOF. both guys mentioned after seem like sure fire