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View Full Version : Marc Stein: Pistons open to trading No. 12



mrblisterdundee
05-31-2017, 12:22 PM
According to Marc Stein of ESPN (https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/status/869613673316143104), the Pistons are open to trading the 12th pick for a win-now veteran.
What convincing trades do you have for the 12th pick?

mrblisterdundee
05-31-2017, 12:31 PM
I think we can objectively say this is a stupid idea by Van Gundy, but I never turn down a chance to create a trade proposal.
How about Bledsoe for Jackson and the pick?

hugepatsfan
05-31-2017, 12:42 PM
For comparison George Hill got moved for #12 just last year in the last year of his deal. Avery Bradley is in a similar situation but younger and a little bit better player. I would also include Rozier who is a good defensive PG (I've read DET wants to upgrade there.

From a BOS perspective I would do a 3 team trade with either CHI or NY (depending on if NY prefers Crowder or #16):

BOS gives: G Avery Bradley, F Jae Crowder, G Terry Rozier
BOS gets: #12, #16

CHI gives: #16
CHI gets: F Jae Crowder, G Ish Smith

DET gives: #12, G Ish Smith
DET gets: G Avery Bradley, G Terry Rozier

Supposedly the trade talks with Jimmy Butler hung up on including Crowder or not. If Crowder was the difference between CHI trading their all star or not, I'm assuming they value him at #16. Especially considering he makes more sense for them if they're keeping Butler and trying to win than he does if they're moving Butler and rebuilding.

Then if I'm BOS I try to package #12, #16, #37, our 2018 1st to the Knicks for #8 to take Lauri Markkanen. They get G Donovan Mitchell at #12 and F Justin Jackson at #16.

hugepatsfan
05-31-2017, 12:52 PM
I think we can objectively say this is a stupid idea by Van Gundy, but I never turn down a chance to create a trade proposal.
How about Bledsoe for Jackson and the pick?

I think Bledsoe for #12 is in play if PHX takes a PG at #4. And they definitely wouldn't want Reggie Jackson back. Honestly, I think there are too many good PGs already in the NBA and in the draft for anyone to want the remainder of his contracts.

I feel like PHX could get #13 from DEN or #14 from MIA without having to take back a bad contract. I could see Bledsoe for #12, Ish Smith, Boban because those deals are more reasonable.

Vinylman
05-31-2017, 01:17 PM
#12 for luol deng and mozgov

Championship for the motor city

warfelg
05-31-2017, 01:36 PM
12 for Otto Porters rights make sense.

hugepatsfan
05-31-2017, 01:41 PM
12 for Otto Porters rights make sense.

Can you do that? I'd think it has to be a S&T. That means DET has to send salaries back and they don't have any big expirings. WAS id they're letting Porter go I'm sure wants cap flexibility. I know S&Ts need to be one for one too.

hugepatsfan
05-31-2017, 01:49 PM
Also, would I be out of line saying that DET has to be bottom 5 situations in the whole NBA?

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/detroit-pistons/yearly/cap/

That's their multi-year breakdown. They're filled with guaranteed deals up through this offseason and next. They on paper should have some cap in 2019 but that's not accounting for any KCP deal this offfseason. They don't project to get high draft picks because they have so many OK players. None of there guys are particularly valuable in trades other than Drummond.

That team needs to blow it up, not trade #12 for a vet. Get a good package for Drummond. Trade guys like Leuer, Harris, Morris to teams that have use for them. It nets back some assets but most importantly lets them get to the top of the lottery potentially so their picks are actually worth something.

COOLbeans
05-31-2017, 02:28 PM
Also, would I be out of line saying that DET has to be bottom 5 situations in the whole NBA?

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/detroit-pistons/yearly/cap/

That's their multi-year breakdown. They're filled with guaranteed deals up through this offseason and next. They on paper should have some cap in 2019 but that's not accounting for any KCP deal this offfseason. They don't project to get high draft picks because they have so many OK players. None of there guys are particularly valuable in trades other than Drummond.

That team needs to blow it up, not trade #12 for a vet. Get a good package for Drummond. Trade guys like Leuer, Harris, Morris to teams that have use for them. It nets back some assets but most importantly lets them get to the top of the lottery potentially so their picks are actually worth something.

Why not let them compete with the "OK" guys they have. This exact reasoning is why the NBA continues to have terrible teams year after year. They guys they have are pretty good and if they can get more competitive this makes the league better rather than always shipping, "OK" players to better contenders. Its a terrible cycle that youre a proponent of.

hugepatsfan
05-31-2017, 02:44 PM
Why not let them compete with the "OK" guys they have. This exact reasoning is why the NBA continues to have terrible teams year after year. They guys they have are pretty good and if they can get more competitive this makes the league better rather than always shipping, "OK" players to better contenders. Its a terrible cycle that youre a proponent of.

I mean yeah it's better for the NBA if they stay decent but it just means the Pistons will never be an actual contender. A team of Drummond, Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris, KCP, Reggie Jackson, Ish Smith, Boban Marjanovic, Leuer, Stanley Johnson is never accomplishing anything. How do they get more competitive? They have crap picks because they're so decent. No cap flexibility. I just don't see how that team can improve.

And you know what, maybe DET takes a step back without some of those OK players but they can probably help another team. What if HOU got a Tobias Harris to help make them a little more competitive in the West. DET's loss can be another team's gain so I don't actually believe it's necessarily better for the NBA that those guys all just wast away in DET.

5ass
05-31-2017, 03:09 PM
For comparison George Hill got moved for #12 just last year in the last year of his deal. Avery Bradley is in a similar situation but younger and a little bit better player. I would also include Rozier who is a good defensive PG (I've read DET wants to upgrade there.

From a BOS perspective I would do a 3 team trade with either CHI or NY (depending on if NY prefers Crowder or #16):

BOS gives: G Avery Bradley, F Jae Crowder, G Terry Rozier
BOS gets: #12, #16

CHI gives: #16
CHI gets: F Jae Crowder, G Ish Smith

DET gives: #12, G Ish Smith
DET gets: G Avery Bradley, G Terry Rozier

Supposedly the trade talks with Jimmy Butler hung up on including Crowder or not. If Crowder was the difference between CHI trading their all star or not, I'm assuming they value him at #16. Especially considering he makes more sense for them if they're keeping Butler and trying to win than he does if they're moving Butler and rebuilding.

Then if I'm BOS I try to package #12, #16, #37, our 2018 1st to the Knicks for #8 to take Lauri Markkanen. They get G Donovan Mitchell at #12 and F Justin Jackson at #16.

If I'm the Pistons id just resign KCP instead of trading a lottery pick for Bradley.

hugepatsfan
05-31-2017, 03:32 PM
If I'm the Pistons id just resign KCP instead of trading a lottery pick for Bradley.

I was thinking they'd do both. I've read bad things about their D and they also need shooting.

Reggie Jackson/Terry Rozier
Avery Bradley / Stanley Johnson
KCP / Marcus Morris
Jon Leuer / Tobias Harris
Andre Drummond / Bynes (or Boban)

Bradley's on-ball defense lets them hide horrendous Reggie Jackson. KCP locks down the wings. Morris and Johnson off the bench can defend. Leuer I think is an alright defender at the 4. The bench of Rozier/Johnson/Morris is strong defensively so they can hid Harris and just let him get after it as a 6th man scorer.

5ass
05-31-2017, 03:46 PM
KCP is a very good defender at the guard positions because of his quickness, but he doesnt have that size and strength for SFs. That's a misuse of talent. I think Crowder makes more sense.

hugepatsfan
05-31-2017, 03:58 PM
KCP is a very good defender at the guard positions because of his quickness, but he doesnt have that size and strength for SFs. That's a misuse of talent. I think Crowder makes more sense.

That's true. For some reason I always thought KCP was more of a 2/3. I was kind of off on that one. Crowder would probably make more sense stylistically but I don't think he's nearly as good as Bradley. I definitely wouldn't give up #12 for Crowder. I think he's good but I think he gets overrated because people just lump in "BOS's great perimeter defenders - Bradley, Smart, Crowder". He's not in their league. He's good but not on their level.

I'm hoping we can deal him to CHI because they seem to like him a lot. Like I said earlier, the Butler talks supposedly hinged on including him in the trade or not. He's the 3 and D type of guy they need who can play small ball 4 in a Rondo/Wade/Butler grouping or can play SF with Butler at SG when Wade is out. So considering they think highly of him it'd be nice to get #16 for him because I think that's way above his value as a player.

If DET is misguided enough to give up #12 for Crowder then I'll take it and run. He is signed cheaply and honestly, a player as good as him is better than most #12 picks because NBA drafts are usually top heavy. But in their situation I think they need to gamble on more upside. Just stay put and take a guy like Donovan Mitchell.

hugepatsfan
05-31-2017, 04:06 PM
What if DET S&T KCP to CHA for Batum? They give him his max and get more of a true 2 to play with Walker and MKG. Also a younger guy. Batum took a step back last year but at his best he's better than KCP and DET takes a gamble. So you do that first and then have:

Jackson/Rozier
Bradley/Johnson
Batum/Morris
Leuer/Harris
Drummond/Boban or Bynes

HeartOfStarks
05-31-2017, 04:36 PM
Hoping we can move Melo for a pick in that 12-16 range but he won't waive that NTC for Detroit I don't believe (although he is friends with Tobias), but maybe a 3 team deal could be worked out? Just throwing it out there as a small possibility.

COOLbeans
05-31-2017, 04:58 PM
I mean yeah it's better for the NBA if they stay decent but it just means the Pistons will never be an actual contender. A team of Drummond, Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris, KCP, Reggie Jackson, Ish Smith, Boban Marjanovic, Leuer, Stanley Johnson is never accomplishing anything. How do they get more competitive? They have crap picks because they're so decent. No cap flexibility. I just don't see how that team can improve.

And you know what, maybe DET takes a step back without some of those OK players but they can probably help another team. What if HOU got a Tobias Harris to help make them a little more competitive in the West. DET's loss can be another team's gain so I don't actually believe it's necessarily better for the NBA that those guys all just wast away in DET.

So you're saying they should get worse for 5 years and hope some picks turn out good? That makes no sense since they justy opened a new arena and they have a pretty competitive squad. Not every great player comes in the top 5 or even top 10 of the draft. Teams need to make trades that fit with the players they want to keep if they go that way and build through developing diamonds in the rough that they pick that are not in the lottery.

If teams keep doing what youre suggesting, then the league is going to continue to suck over and over again.

hugepatsfan
05-31-2017, 05:30 PM
So you're saying they should get worse for 5 years and hope some picks turn out good? That makes no sense since they justy opened a new arena and they have a pretty competitive squad. Not every great player comes in the top 5 or even top 10 of the draft. Teams need to make trades that fit with the players they want to keep if they go that way and build through developing diamonds in the rough that they pick that are not in the lottery.

If teams keep doing what youre suggesting, then the league is going to continue to suck over and over again.

They were a few games below .500 this year and finished 10th in the East. The year before they were a little bit above .500, made the playoffs as an 8 seed and got swept. I don't really consider that being "pretty competitive".

I don't think every team should tank. If you can get better you should. But IDK, I personally wouldn't try to build a title team by getting lucky outside the lottery and drafting a superstar. I don't think that's a good strategy but whatever floats your boat. I think you gotta be more realistic with yourself and your chances. Don't keep pounding your head against a brick wall. If you truly have the avenues to get championship talent then by all means go for it and try to make smart moves. But if you don't have the avenues (be it draft picks that you realistically expect to land top talent, trade-able assets, or cap space) do the smart thing and try to hit re-set.

The league doesn't suck because there are bad teams. The league sucks because the #2/3/4 teams aren't even in the same realm as the #1 teams in each conference. And a big part of that is because of situations like DET where you get stuck without any means to ever get into that same world that #1 is. The NBA is a talent league more so than any other sport so it's never going to be realistic that you have a lot of teams competing but it'd be nice if #2 and #3 in each conference were semi-legit threats.

Heediot
05-31-2017, 05:35 PM
BK is drooling right now, but they have **** all to trade for the pick.

Kyben36
05-31-2017, 06:12 PM
for comparison george hill got moved for #12 just last year in the last year of his deal. Avery bradley is in a similar situation but younger and a little bit better player. I would also include rozier who is a good defensive pg (i've read det wants to upgrade there.

From a bos perspective i would do a 3 team trade with either chi or ny (depending on if ny prefers crowder or #16):

Bos gives: G avery bradley, f jae crowder, g terry rozier
bos gets: #12, #16

chi gives: #16
chi gets: F jae crowder, g ish smith

det gives: #12, g ish smith
det gets: G avery bradley, g terry rozier

supposedly the trade talks with jimmy butler hung up on including crowder or not. If crowder was the difference between chi trading their all star or not, i'm assuming they value him at #16. Especially considering he makes more sense for them if they're keeping butler and trying to win than he does if they're moving butler and rebuilding.

Then if i'm bos i try to package #12, #16, #37, our 2018 1st to the knicks for #8 to take lauri markkanen. They get g donovan mitchell at #12 and f justin jackson at #16.

chicago gets jae crowder and ish smith for #16, sign me up.

Personally, i dont see many good players sloted for that post 10 area, nobody who will make an impact like the 3 guys boston traded.

Kyben36
05-31-2017, 06:15 PM
To answer the question on this thread, i think the pick would have been more valuable at trade deadline than now. Looking at the late lotery, there are few guys there who i think will be very great, the guys i love are all looking like top 8 picks.

Those being

fultz
lonzo
jackson
fox
tatum
issac
smith (under rated imo)
monk (though i think his role needs to be figured out)
maybe collins (though im not holding out hope for him)

outside of them, i see alot of meh prospects.

hugepatsfan
05-31-2017, 06:26 PM
chicago gets jae crowder and ish smith for #16, sign me up.

Personally, i dont see many good players sloted for that post 10 area, nobody who will make an impact like the 3 guys boston traded.

For me it was about consolidation. I really like Lauri Markkanen as a scoring big. I've read the Knicks really like Donovan Mitchell who I think they could get at #12. These trades were a backdoor way for us to essentially turn some late picks and role players into a top 10 selection.

Bradley/Crowder/Rozier are all varying degrees of nice players but none are stars. Bradley is up for a big money deal and I'd rather not give it to him because I prefer keeping IT (as a 6th man to Fultz). I have us keeping Fultz and trying to sign Hayward. This deal also opens up the room for us to sign Hayward to a max and then sign Dewayne Dedmon to a deal starting at $12.6M which I think could get it done and give us much needed rebounding and size.

IT/Fultz (eventually this switches)
Smart/Brown (eventually this switches as well)
Hayward/(room exception signing - Thabo Sefolosha)
Horford/Markkanen
Dedmon/Zizic

I just like that talent distribution better. We have Fultz/Hayward coming in so re-distribute our assets (Rozier, Crowder, Rozier) to add cap space for a FA signing and a draft pick to help the front court.

Hopefully Fultz becomes the star people think he can and Brown continues his development. Then you put those guys with Hayward/Horford for a potent offensive lineup with Dedmon cleaning up inside.

On the bench you'd eventually have IT and Markkanen just dominating teams offensively. Surround them with tough rugged defenders like Smart.

Hayward if he comes will sign a 3 year deal with a player option for the 4th that he likely opts out of. Horford has 2 years left then a player option he likely opts in for at his age. Dedmon you try to get for 3 years so he lines up with them. IT will get an extension next year. But 3 years from now BOS is looking at a core of:

Fultz
Smart
Brown
IT
Markkanen
Zizic
Yabuesele (overseas draft n stash)
2018 BRK pick
2019 MEM pick
2019 LAC pick
2019 BOS pick

And cap space for a max FA. If they attach assets to IT then they can probably dump him at that point as well to free up a second max FA slot. And then while over the next 3 years you nip at CLE's heals you then transition to younger max players as the youngsters are coming into their own.

MILLERHIGHLIFE
05-31-2017, 06:40 PM
If I was Pistons GM i'd start over. Jackson and Drummond are dead weight money. Drummond regressed a lot last season. I'd trade both for late firsts or young pieces buried on another teams bench or whatever and keep #12 and bottom out another year. But match KCP deals. Pistons are done for. Even adding a so called vet for #12 wont get them into the playoffs.

WaDe03
05-31-2017, 07:23 PM
12 for Otto Porters rights make sense.

Why does that make sense though? Can you elaborate? Unless the Wizards can sign a max level player and actually have interest from one at the 3-4-5 then I don't think it makes sense.

MJNetsIsles
05-31-2017, 07:39 PM
12 for Brook Lopez and pick #27

mrblisterdundee
05-31-2017, 08:05 PM
I think Bledsoe for #12 is in play if PHX takes a PG at #4. And they definitely wouldn't want Reggie Jackson back. Honestly, I think there are too many good PGs already in the NBA and in the draft for anyone to want the remainder of his contracts.

I feel like PHX could get #13 from DEN or #14 from MIA without having to take back a bad contract. I could see Bledsoe for #12, Ish Smith, Boban because those deals are more reasonable.

How do you make the contracts work? I doubt you can add $14 million to Detroit's payroll.

warfelg
05-31-2017, 08:17 PM
Why does that make sense though? Can you elaborate? Unless the Wizards can sign a max level player and actually have interest from one at the 3-4-5 then I don't think it makes sense.

Because that team is stuck as is. They could be better off singing out Stanley Johnson with 12 to get Porter. Then put Leuer (horribly stupid contract) on the bench. Start Jackson-KCP-Porter-Morris-Drummond.

Pray through the season that they can dump off Jackson and Drummond for picks. KCP-Porter gives them two young talented wings to build with.

hugepatsfan
05-31-2017, 08:22 PM
How do you make the contracts work? I doubt you can add $14 million to Detroit's payroll.

If DET sends out Boban and Ish Smith with #12 that works for Bledsoe. If they move Bledsoe it's probably because they drafted a PG at #4 and they have Knight sondoibt theud want Reggie Jackson.

hugepatsfan
05-31-2017, 08:27 PM
Because that team is stuck as is. They could be better off singing out Stanley Johnson with 12 to get Porter. Then put Leuer (horribly stupid contract) on the bench. Start Jackson-KCP-Porter-Morris-Drummond.

Pray through the season that they can dump off Jackson and Drummond for picks. KCP-Porter gives them two young talented wings to build with.

Both are getting maxes though. That's like $25M each next year and with raises they'll eventually have those two making $60M/year between them. And they're good players. If the intention is to eventually trade off guys then Morris doesn't make sense IMO.

GiantsSwaGG
05-31-2017, 08:46 PM
Courtney Lee, O'Quinn for the 12th pick

GREATNESS ONE
05-31-2017, 08:50 PM
Jordan Clarkson for the 12th pick.

tp13baby
05-31-2017, 08:52 PM
Courtney Lee, O'Quinn for the 12th pick

Your proposals are usually brutal and this is no different

FOXHOUND
05-31-2017, 08:55 PM
So you're saying they should get worse for 5 years and hope some picks turn out good? That makes no sense since they justy opened a new arena and they have a pretty competitive squad. Not every great player comes in the top 5 or even top 10 of the draft. Teams need to make trades that fit with the players they want to keep if they go that way and build through developing diamonds in the rough that they pick that are not in the lottery.

If teams keep doing what youre suggesting, then the league is going to continue to suck over and over again.

Milwaukee did this and drafted Giannis at #15.

I do think Detroit is kind of ****ed, but I agree that the 76ers model isn't all it's cracked up to be. Detroit's problem has been poor team building and cap management. Portland was in a similar boat until they pulled off the Nurkic deal, although they still have serious cap issues to deal with. You never know when you may be able to pull off a move like that. Blowing it up ignores how hard it is to even get to this point.

MagicBucsSox
05-31-2017, 09:50 PM
I'll gladly send them Aaron Gordon

MiamiBoy77
05-31-2017, 10:36 PM
12 for Crowder makes sense

More-Than-Most
05-31-2017, 11:23 PM
and people wonder why i am all for tanking... the pistons are exactly where the 08 sixers were with iggy.... purgatory... good enough for an 8 seed and to maybe take 1 game in the playoffs before being ousted year in and year out with no real way of improvement.... its the worst possibly position to be in outside of the Nets and maybe orlando.

More-Than-Most
05-31-2017, 11:24 PM
Jordan Clarkson for the 12th pick.

because of his contract its actually a good trade... Maybe clarkson and your late first for the 12 pick gets it done.

FOXHOUND
05-31-2017, 11:39 PM
12 for Crowder makes sense

I think this draft is too good for a trade like that. Crowder is good and his contract is great, but he is 26 and he is what he is at this point. A good 3 and D player is valuable but they can draft someone at 12 who can potentially be much more and probably bottom out as a Crowder type. They need to try and find a Kawhi/Giannis type mid-round selection, not settle for mediocrity.

Someone like Justin Jackson, who brings shooting and playmaking at SF like they need, would be a much better get for them IMO.

hugepatsfan
06-01-2017, 03:08 AM
I think this draft is too good for a trade like that. Crowder is good and his contract is great, but he is 26 and he is what he is at this point. A good 3 and D player is valuable but they can draft someone at 12 who can potentially be much more and probably bottom out as a Crowder type. They need to try and find a Kawhi/Giannis type mid-round selection, not settle for mediocrity.

Someone like Justin Jackson, who brings shooting and playmaking at SF like they need, would be a much better get for them IMO.

I agree with your overall point but it's a bit ambitious to say that a #12 selection can "probably bottom out" as a Crowder type. I'm not a huge Crowder guy but a good NBA starter probably makes him one of the 5, 10 whatever percent of players drafted after #12 in the last decade. Not going to argue exact number but the point is that non top draft picks in the NBA flop more than any other league. A Crowder type isn't the floor of a #12 pick, it's a very good outcome.

Personally I wouldn't deal Crowder for #12 because I don't see anyone being even a solid bet to be as good as him. Only way I want to deal him is if it's part of a series of moves to get higher like I've proposed with also shipping out Bradley to get another mid 1st to move up into the top 10.

Now again I agree you don't do that trade as DET because they need some upside. Our situation is different. But at the same time I just think that if they get a Jae Crowdertype staying at #12 that would be a great pick and he's definitely not the floor of a #12 pick at all. They just need to take the chance that they get a special breakthrough pick even with the risk of most likely not getting someone as good as Crowder.

C-ross12
06-01-2017, 07:22 AM
I think this draft is too good for a trade like that. Crowder is good and his contract is great, but he is 26 and he is what he is at this point. A good 3 and D player is valuable but they can draft someone at 12 who can potentially be much more and probably bottom out as a Crowder type. They need to try and find a Kawhi/Giannis type mid-round selection, not settle for mediocrity.

Someone like Justin Jackson, who brings shooting and playmaking at SF like they need, would be a much better get for them IMO.

I think drafting someone of Crowders level at 12 would be a success. Here is a list of the past half dozen or so 12 picks.
2009 - Gerald Henderson
2010 - Xavier Henry
2011 - Alec Burks
2012 - Jeremy Lamb
2013 - Steven Adams
2014 - Dario Saric
2015 - Trey Lyles

I just don't see a Kawhi / Giannis type mid round. If Lauri Markkanen fell to 12, I could see him having the type of potential, but everything would have to work out for him. Terrance Ferguson is interesting and Donovan Mitchell could also surprised to that level, but its a tall mountain for those three to climb to get to Giannis / Kawhi level.

I'm not saying Detroit should trade the 12 for Crowder, but it's quite defensible if the desired outcome is a solid NBA starter. I think Justin Jackson will be a solid rotation guy, but if I were drafting at 12 and wanted a prospect with more upside I'd go either Mitchell or Ferguson.

hugepatsfan
06-01-2017, 07:33 AM
^ Just to add some evidence to my claim above, I went back 7 drafts from 2014 backwards (I don't think the 2015 or 2016 drafts have enough time for me to make good judgements yet on some of the later guys that have flashed). These are the guys drafted #12 or later that I think are (or were) better players than Crowder:

2014: Saric (#12), LaVine (#13), Nurkic (#16), Gary Harris (#19), Jokic (#41)
2013: Steve Adams (#12), Giannis (#15), Gobert (#27)
2012: [Jae Crowder himself was #34], Draymond Green (#35)
2011: Kawai (#15), Vucevic (#16), Faried (#22), Jimmy Butler (#30), Parsons (#38), IT4 (#60)
2010: Larry Sanders (#15 - before mental breakdown), Bledsoe (#18), Bradley (#19), Whiteside (#33)
2009: Jrue Holiday (#17), Ty Lawson (#18), Teague (#19), Taj Gibson (#26), Pat Beverly (#42), Danny Green (#46), Patty Mills (#55)
2008: Robin Lopez (#15), Hibbert (#17), Ryan Anderson (#21), Courtney Lee (#22), Ibaka (#24), Batum (#25), George Hill (#26), Pekovic (#31), DeaAndre Jordan (#36), Asik (#37)

I may have missed some. There were guys close like the Morris twins, Dieng in MIN, Fournier in ORL. But also some guys I listed that were close (Asik, Pekovic). Honestly other than a handful of guys from that list I don't think there are too many that are that much better than Crowder. So really I just think the idea that the "floor" of a #12 pick is Crowder is very unrealistic expectations. I did 7 drafts and came up with 32 players better than Crowder. Picks 12-60 of 7 drafts is equal to 343 picks. And my rough calculations have Crowder better than 91% of them.

Even if you want to limit the range to #12-20, there were a total of 63 picks in that range and I have 16 listed as better than Crowder. That means he's better than 75% of them in that more isolated range.

hugepatsfan
06-01-2017, 07:46 AM
Also I just want to be clear that DET, IMO, should try to draft for the higher upside. I'm just disputing the notion that Crowder is a "floor" for a pick in that range.

MILLERHIGHLIFE
06-01-2017, 07:54 AM
I think drafting someone of Crowders level at 12 would be a success. Here is a list of the past half dozen or so 12 picks.
2009 - Gerald Henderson
2010 - Xavier Henry
2011 - Alec Burks
2012 - Jeremy Lamb
2013 - Steven Adams
2014 - Dario Saric
2015 - Trey Lyles

I just don't see a Kawhi / Giannis type mid round. If Lauri Markkanen fell to 12, I could see him having the type of potential, but everything would have to work out for him. Terrance Ferguson is interesting and Donovan Mitchell could also surprised to that level, but its a tall mountain for those three to climb to get to Giannis / Kawhi level.

I'm not saying Detroit should trade the 12 for Crowder, but it's quite defensible if the desired outcome is a solid NBA starter. I think Justin Jackson will be a solid rotation guy, but if I were drafting at 12 and wanted a prospect with more upside I'd go either Mitchell or Ferguson.

Justin Jackson is staying in school another year. I know cause he was in the Bucks range at #17.

hugepatsfan
06-01-2017, 08:03 AM
Justin Jackson is staying in school another year. I know cause he was in the Bucks range at #17.

Justin Jackson from UNC is definitely in the draft. Do you mean Maryland's Justin Jackson?

FOXHOUND
06-01-2017, 08:50 AM
I agree with your overall point but it's a bit ambitious to say that a #12 selection can "probably bottom out" as a Crowder type. I'm not a huge Crowder guy but a good NBA starter probably makes him one of the 5, 10 whatever percent of players drafted after #12 in the last decade. Not going to argue exact number but the point is that non top draft picks in the NBA flop more than any other league. A Crowder type isn't the floor of a #12 pick, it's a very good outcome.

Personally I wouldn't deal Crowder for #12 because I don't see anyone being even a solid bet to be as good as him. Only way I want to deal him is if it's part of a series of moves to get higher like I've proposed with also shipping out Bradley to get another mid 1st to move up into the top 10.

Now again I agree you don't do that trade as DET because they need some upside. Our situation is different. But at the same time I just think that if they get a Jae Crowdertype staying at #12 that would be a great pick and he's definitely not the floor of a #12 pick at all. They just need to take the chance that they get a special breakthrough pick even with the risk of most likely not getting someone as good as Crowder.

Haha, I didn't mean to throw shade at Crowder like that. Whoops.

I meant a successful #12 selection could probably bottom out as a Crowder level player. Maybe that's ambitious but you aren't selecting players hoping they fail either.

I agree that the trade doesn't make much sense for Boston either, unless they were able to sign Hayward which comes after the draft. They could also trade Crowder for #12 with the intention of combining it with assets in a larger deal for George or Butler, since a draft pick is more valuable to a rebuilding team than Crowder would be, IMO. Of course, that deal would have to be in place because you don't risk losing Crowder without the payoff.

FOXHOUND
06-01-2017, 08:55 AM
I think drafting someone of Crowders level at 12 would be a success. Here is a list of the past half dozen or so 12 picks.
2009 - Gerald Henderson
2010 - Xavier Henry
2011 - Alec Burks
2012 - Jeremy Lamb
2013 - Steven Adams
2014 - Dario Saric
2015 - Trey Lyles

I just don't see a Kawhi / Giannis type mid round. If Lauri Markkanen fell to 12, I could see him having the type of potential, but everything would have to work out for him. Terrance Ferguson is interesting and Donovan Mitchell could also surprised to that level, but its a tall mountain for those three to climb to get to Giannis / Kawhi level.

I'm not saying Detroit should trade the 12 for Crowder, but it's quite defensible if the desired outcome is a solid NBA starter. I think Justin Jackson will be a solid rotation guy, but if I were drafting at 12 and wanted a prospect with more upside I'd go either Mitchell or Ferguson.

Yup, wasn't clear on what I meant by that. A Crowder-type would definitely be successful from the #12 spot but obviously you're hoping for something more.

The thing is nobody sees those guys coming until they do. Nobody expected Devin Booker to be what he was at #13 when he came from Kentucky as a shooter off the bench. Even Myles Turner at #11 from that draft. This draft has some serious talent, definitely wouldn't be surprise if some mid round picks became quite good.

hugepatsfan
06-01-2017, 09:09 AM
Haha, I didn't mean to throw shade at Crowder like that. Whoops.

I meant a successful #12 selection could probably bottom out as a Crowder level player. Maybe that's ambitious but you aren't selecting players hoping they fail either.

I agree that the trade doesn't make much sense for Boston either, unless they were able to sign Hayward which comes after the draft. They could also trade Crowder for #12 with the intention of combining it with assets in a larger deal for George or Butler, since a draft pick is more valuable to a rebuilding team than Crowder would be, IMO. Of course, that deal would have to be in place because you don't risk losing Crowder without the payoff.

Honestly, I want the pick and the cap space that comes with Bradley/Crowder deals. I really like Dedmon in FA for us. I think he's a perfect rim runner center who can block shots and rebound.

If CHI really wants to keep Butler like rumors say I think Bradley would be outstanding for them. Adds shooting and him/Butler is probably the top defensive duo in the whole NBA. They have to sort it out with Wade but I think #16 for him would be fair value.

I think it's dumb of DET to trade #12 for a vet but let's say they do. You send them Crowder/Rozier. Now you have #12, #16. We also have #37. Package those with next year's first and try to get back into the top 10. You've turned a few role players (one of which will get $20M or more next year) and a couple of late 1st/early 2nds into a top 10 selection. You can now sign Hayward and still have $12.6M of cap space left over. I love the offensive potential of Lauri Markkanen and the defensive potential of Jonathan Isaac. I feel like you could get one of them at #8.

Like I said, now you can sign Hayward to a max and then have $12.6M left over for Dedmon. Plus the room exception for either a SF or PF (depending on if we got Markkanen or Isaac).

IT/Fultz
Brown/Smart
Hayward/Isaac
Horford/(room exception)
Dedmon/Zizic

or

IT/Fultz
Brown/Smart
Hayward/(room exception)
Horford/Markkanen
Dedmon/Zizic

Even if Hayward doesn't sign, I think the consolidation of Crowder/Bradley/Rozier/#37/our 2018 1st into a top 10 draft pick is a good move for the future. We'll have the ability to try for another max player next year clearing out those cap holds/salaries (though it will require letting one of Smart/IT walk). So I'm actually cool making those trades either way because I think they're the smart long-term move regardless of what happens in FA.

FOXHOUND
06-01-2017, 09:16 AM
Honestly, I want the pick and the cap space that comes with Bradley/Crowder deals. I really like Dedmon in FA for us. I think he's a perfect rim runner center who can block shots and rebound.

If CHI really wants to keep Butler like rumors say I think Bradley would be outstanding for them. Adds shooting and him/Butler is probably the top defensive duo in the whole NBA. They have to sort it out with Wade but I think #16 for him would be fair value.

I think it's dumb of DET to trade #12 for a vet but let's say they do. You send them Crowder/Rozier. Now you have #12, #16. We also have #37. Package those with next year's first and try to get back into the top 10. You've turned a few role players (one of which will get $20M or more next year) and a couple of late 1st/early 2nds into a top 10 selection. You can now sign Hayward and still have $12.6M of cap space left over. I love the offensive potential of Lauri Markkanen and the defensive potential of Jonathan Isaac. I feel like you could get one of them at #8.

Like I said, now you can sign Hayward to a max and then have $12.6M left over for Dedmon. Plus the room exception for either a SF or PF (depending on if we got Markkanen or Isaac).

IT/Fultz
Brown/Smart
Hayward/Isaac
Horford/(room exception)
Dedmon/Zizic

or

IT/Fultz
Brown/Smart
Hayward/(room exception)
Horford/Markkanen
Dedmon/Zizic

Even if Hayward doesn't sign, I think the consolidation of Crowder/Bradley/Rozier/#37/our 2018 1st into a top 10 draft pick is a good move for the future. We'll have the ability to try for another max player next year clearing out those cap holds/salaries (though it will require letting one of Smart/IT walk). So I'm actually cool making those trades either way because I think they're the smart long-term move regardless of what happens in FA.

That's a good plan, if they could pull it off. I think Pop will keep Dedmon and I'm not sure #12 and #16 is enough to move top 10 unless that team misses on players they like and don't love who is left. It sounds feasible to me, though. I would say the Knicks at #8 are possible in that scenario but Markkanen might be gone by then, and I can't imagine Isaac getting past Minnesota.

hugepatsfan
06-01-2017, 10:11 AM
That's a good plan, if they could pull it off. I think Pop will keep Dedmon and I'm not sure #12 and #16 is enough to move top 10 unless that team misses on players they like and don't love who is left. It sounds feasible to me, though. I would say the Knicks at #8 are possible in that scenario but Markkanen might be gone by then, and I can't imagine Isaac getting past Minnesota.

It's going to be very tough for SA to keep Dedmon. They don't have bird rights so they need to fit him into cap space. If the Spurs renounce Simmons/Mills and trade away their 1st round pick then that gives SA about $8M of cap space. I had BOS offering him $12.6M so they'd need to clear more salary after letting Simmons/Mills walk. I don't think they have a very realistic shot of keeping him unless they move Gasol.

I was giving up #12, #16, #37 and our 1st next year (though I'd put some protection on that pick in case of a doomsday scenario). I've read the Knicks really like Donovan Mitchell who is who I think they'd take at #12.

I think one of Markkanen and Isaac should be on the board at #8. Fultz/Ball/Jackson/Tatum/Fox seem like they'll be the top 5 in some order. It could be Markkanen and Isaac to ORL and MIN respectively. I really like Zach Collins as well and would consider moving up for him. I'd love him at #12 but feel he probably goes to SAC at #10. If SAC ends up with Tatum at #5 instead of Fox though then I'd take my chance though because it makes them more likely to take a PG at #10.

In the end I doubt it happens because I think Ainge would be weary that moving Bradley/Crowder for a rookie hurts our defensive identity and toughness to much. We'll see though.

FOXHOUND
06-01-2017, 10:54 AM
It's going to be very tough for SA to keep Dedmon. They don't have bird rights so they need to fit him into cap space. If the Spurs renounce Simmons/Mills and trade away their 1st round pick then that gives SA about $8M of cap space. I had BOS offering him $12.6M so they'd need to clear more salary after letting Simmons/Mills walk. I don't think they have a very realistic shot of keeping him unless they move Gasol.

I was giving up #12, #16, #37 and our 1st next year (though I'd put some protection on that pick in case of a doomsday scenario). I've read the Knicks really like Donovan Mitchell who is who I think they'd take at #12.

I think one of Markkanen and Isaac should be on the board at #8. Fultz/Ball/Jackson/Tatum/Fox seem like they'll be the top 5 in some order. It could be Markkanen and Isaac to ORL and MIN respectively. I really like Zach Collins as well and would consider moving up for him. I'd love him at #12 but feel he probably goes to SAC at #10. If SAC ends up with Tatum at #5 instead of Fox though then I'd take my chance though because it makes them more likely to take a PG at #10.

In the end I doubt it happens because I think Ainge would be weary that moving Bradley/Crowder for a rookie hurts our defensive identity and toughness to much. We'll see though.

Oh ****, Pau opted in? lol, whelp.

I can see that draft scenario playing out but I think this is going to be a wild top 10. There are so many possible outcomes. I agree that Ainge isn't likely to go that route too. They aren't paying Horford $28M at his age to do anything but contend and young players don't win in the playoffs.

hugepatsfan
06-01-2017, 11:59 AM
Oh ****, Pau opted in? lol, whelp.

I can see that draft scenario playing out but I think this is going to be a wild top 10. There are so many possible outcomes. I agree that Ainge isn't likely to go that route too. They aren't paying Horford $28M at his age to do anything but contend and young players don't win in the playoffs.

Well it seems to be a formality that Pau will. But I guess it still could change.

I don't think that trading away Bradley/Crowder really goes against contending. They're going to take and keep Fultz. They wan to sign Hayward. if they accomplish that, they're going to have a rotation of:

IT/Fultz
Bradley/Smart
Hayward/Brown
Crowder
Horford/Zizic

(cap space for a max while keeping these guys requires salary dumping Terry Rozier and leaving last year's #16 pick Yabusele overseas one more year, along with renouncing Olynyk and other FA cap holds)

That looks good on paper, but there are some flaws/redundancies there. The major flaw is that the front court rebounding sucks. Crowder is a small ball 4 and Horford is a weak rebounder at the 5. And in this scenario there's no cap space for another big - just the room exception but options aren't good at that price range from what I see. So in this scenario it makes sense to trade something for a big man. In my scenario they back into that by moving Crowder/Bradley for pick while opening up cap space to go higher up in the big man market.

There's also the issue of lack of starpower. We need more than just Hayward to get up to CLE's level. And I don't mean more role players. I mean more stars. There are two guys on that bench with that ability though - Fultz and Brown. The hope is that over the next couple of seasons those guys grow an develop into very good players. If they do in fact become guys worthy of playing 30 minutes/night, then there's really not room for Crowder and Smart and Bradley all to keep doing it along with IT and Hayward on the perimeter. Something's gotta give. Roles will be reduced. And with some of those guys coming up for contracts, do you really want to pay a guy like Bradley his full value (probably over $20M/year) if you're hope is that his minutes are cut into? It's not that you can't because they do have the money but it's a matter of want to - you're better off spending that money/asset elsewhere to diversify your roster and add complimentary pieces.

Maybe it is a little bit of a step back in 2017 with a couple of young guys developing but I truly believe the type of moves I made but the roster in better position to be competitive over the next 3 years overall because it cleans up some flaws and duplication on the roster. I don't think Ainge views Horford as a guy who he has to win in his window but he does have 3 years left on his deal. I think his signing was more about just adding a max salary players when it was available to him since it's tough to find the right fit with guys have all sorts of different preferences. So I don't think he really views it as he has to do something right away.

LA4life24/8
06-01-2017, 12:14 PM
If im lakers id offer JC+28 for 12. Gotta make salaries match but im not familiar enough w Detroit's roster, someone halp


*** jk after investigating pistons roster/contracts i absolutely rescind this offer lol. There are some turrible contracts over there thatd have to come back to match

MILLERHIGHLIFE
06-01-2017, 06:08 PM
Justin Jackson from UNC is definitely in the draft. Do you mean Maryland's Justin Jackson?

There's two? Thanks for the heads up. Not sure which guy I wanted the Bucks to get. Off to youtube.

MILLERHIGHLIFE
06-01-2017, 06:27 PM
I checked over at Bucks board draft thread. I posted the video there. Its the UNC guy I want the Bucks to get for instant offense off the pine. Yes I'm happy he's back. Thanks man!

hugepatsfan
06-19-2017, 09:42 AM
http://amicohoops.net/nba-rumors-los-angeles-lakers-nba-draft-paul-george/


The Detroit Pistons are said to be looking to move their No. 12 overall pick, and sources have told Amico Hoops the Pistons and Lakers may have already connected.

Clarkson makes sense for DET. Clears some salary if you're LA.

I could also see #12 being enough of a chip for a team like BRK to take on Deng or Mozgov.

MILLERHIGHLIFE
06-19-2017, 09:51 AM
http://amicohoops.net/nba-rumors-los-angeles-lakers-nba-draft-paul-george/



Clarkson makes sense for DET. Clears some salary if you're LA.

I could also see #12 being enough of a chip for a team like BRK to take on Deng or Mozgov.


Clarkson for #12. Then package #12 with either of Deng or Mozgov to Nets for top #55 protected second round. Lakers be golden for cap in 2018 then. Us Bucks fans were discussing ideas to land Clarkson a while back as well.