PDA

View Full Version : Best landing spot for free agents



Scoots
05-12-2017, 07:17 PM
Free agent by free agent what situation would fit them best where that team could reasonably work out the signing or S&T?

1. KD - Warriors
2. Curry - Warriors
3. Hayward - Jazz
4. Griffin - OKC - S&T
5. CP3 - Spurs - I don't know how
6. Lowry -
7. Millsap -
8. Holiday -
9. Gallinari -
10. Porter -

etc.

More-Than-Most
05-12-2017, 07:20 PM
I think the sixers go after Lowry but Id rather have Holiday..

warfelg
05-12-2017, 07:41 PM
1. KD - Warriors
2. Curry - Warriors
3. Hayward - Toranto or Orlando (if they can clear space)
4. Griffin - Boston
5. CP3 - S&T Boston for Smart, IT, Crowder, Net's swap this year, Nets swap next year and filler. I know unlikely but it's an interesting move.
6. Lowry - Chicago if they let Rondo go, and Wade opts out.
7. Millsap - Atlanta. That 5th year is too much.
8. Holiday - I don't want this to happen but Knicks.
9. Gallinari - Rockets
10. Porter - He'll be back with Washington

Some RFA's:
Mirotic - Nets
Noel - Dallas
KCP - Philly
Snell - LAC
Jonathon Simmons - Nets

WaDe03
05-12-2017, 07:57 PM
Wade: Cavs Heat or Spurs
Durant: Heat if Wade goes back

WaDe03
05-12-2017, 07:58 PM
1. KD - Warriors
2. Curry - Warriors
3. Hayward - Toranto or Orlando (if they can clear space)
4. Griffin - Boston
5. CP3 - S&T Boston for Smart, IT, Crowder, Net's swap this year, Nets swap next year and filler. I know unlikely but it's an interesting move.
6. Lowry - Chicago if they let Rondo go, and Wade opts out.
7. Millsap - Atlanta. That 5th year is too much.
8. Holiday - I don't want this to happen but Knicks.
9. Gallinari - Rockets
10. Porter - He'll be back with Washington

Some RFA's:
Mirotic - Nets
Noel - Dallas
KCP - Philly
Snell - LAC
Jonathon Simmons - Nets

Toronto actually would be nice for Hayward but they won't have near the money. Why Orlando though? That would be a terrible decision.

warfelg
05-12-2017, 08:15 PM
Toronto actually would be nice for Hayward but they won't have near the money. Why Orlando though? That would be a terrible decision.

Because I think Orlando is the best bet to make a huge swing for a guy like Hayward. They are desperate to be relevant.

Jeffy25
05-12-2017, 08:45 PM
Wade: Cavs Heat or Spurs
Durant: Heat if Wade goes back

dude....come on

hugepatsfan
05-12-2017, 08:50 PM
I feel like all of them are best off re-signing and getting more money. BOS will have max cap space without sacrificing many contributors and are close to contention so I feel like theiy should be the top alternative for pretty much all of those guys.

Quinnsanity
05-12-2017, 09:45 PM
KD: Warriors, easy, but if he really did explore free agency, Washington suddenly looks a whole lot more appealing than they did a year ago, but they'd have to clear a lot of space.

Curry: Warriors, easy, but if he really did explore free agency, Charlotte seems like the favorite even if they'd have to clear a ton of space.

Hayward: Celtics. Supposedly his bond with Stevens is really tight (he recruited him before his growth spurt, bigger schools tried to get him afterwards but he stayed loyal to Brad), plus the Celtics are already closer to the title than Utah and that's before they add Hayward AND they still have all of those picks at their disposal. I think there's still some bad blood over his 2014 free agency, George Hill's injuries are only going to get worse over the next few years and they'd have to lose either Ingles or Favors to avoid the tax, maybe both. Utah isn't paying the tax.

Griffin: I expect him to be back with the Clippers. There isn't really a sensible team out there for him now. Boston is not committing four years to Blake in his current state, and even if that weren't a factor the problems with playing Horford at center aren't solved by Blake (they'd still have no rim-protection and Blake really isn't a great rebounder). I could sort of see Brooklyn if they wanted to gain some credibility, they obviously wouldn't be a winner but if Blake wants to stay in a big market they make some sense. Denver has sniffed around him in the past but are probably more of a Millsap team because they need a really good defender next to Jokic. Maybe Minnesota makes a big swing? No team here screams fit to me, so I'll say he goes back. Let me state for the record that an OKC S&T is not happening. OKC does not have cap space. They would have to send matching salaries back, and who do they have that the Clippers want? Adams is a great asset, but it would have to be a three-way unless they traded DeAndre elsewhere. I also don't think I'd give up Adams for Blake right now. I'm also not sure what the exact rule is regarding S&T's (the Coon FAQ wording is a bit unclear). I know you can't acquire a signed-and-traded player if that player puts you over the apron, but I'm not sure if you can be the team to sign-and-trade someone if you are over the apron. If Chris Paul is back, the Clippers will be above the apron. If the Thunder re-sign Roberson, they'd probably be near the apron too.

CP3: Spurs. I can't reconcile the competitor we see on the floor with the idea that he HAS to take a five-year max, even with all of the union stuff. I know there's a very good chance that I'm wrong and he just takes the money, but it just seems so hard to believe to me that at this point he'd really essentially give up on winning a championship. So I'm saying Spurs knowing it might look stupid.

Lowry: Sixers. He said he wanted to win a ring. He never said when. There isn't a team out there that could add Lowry and suddenly be good enough to beat the Warriors. So why not wait it out? Sign with Philly, help mentor their young guys, and then try to win a ring with them in one of your last few years when their yougnsters are all in their primes?

Millsap: 50/50 Between Hawks and Denver. If Atlanta wouldn't give Horford the five-year max when he was three years younger during his free agency and had been with the team his whole career then I have a hard time believing they'd give it to Millsap no matter what ownership says. There's probably still some bad blood from them almost trading him to Phoenix last summer, and he's never gotten enough respect there as is. I think Denver is a tough situation to pass up right now. Jokic is a young star, they've got some other nice pieces, and Atlanta isn't exactly trending up.

Holiday: New Orleans. They HAVE to overpay him, they have no way of replacing him. He'll get close to the max there, if not the max itself. The Pelicans have never thought about the consequences of their moves, they signed Asik for five years.

Gallinari: Wouldn't be surprised if Orlando cleared some space and chased him. If they're really committed to seeing this Elfrid Payton thing through then they need a wing who can shoot and do some secondary creation. Sacramento makes some sense if they just want to help their young guys develop and can live with the defensive issues. Minnesota might if they're open to playing him at 4. He'll have plenty of suitors in that non-max group.

Otto Porter: Brooklyn. They're going to chase restricted free agents, and either Porter or KCP will get the first offer. It's basically a coin flip between those guys, but I think Porter is slightly more attainable. Washington already has Oubre lined up as a potential replacement (and he'll be better if he can develop as a shooter, his defensive potential is insanely high even if he hasn't mastered the nuances of it yet), and looming over all of this is the Boogie free agency next year. John Wall once said that Boogie was coming. At the very least we know they're very close friends. It would take a fair bit of cap clearing, but I have to imagine that after failing to even reach Cleveland this time around the Wizards know that they aren't a title team yet and would therefore be willing to wait a year to try to vault themselves into that group.

I'll take on War's RFA's as well:

Mirotic: Hawks if Millsap leaves. They've always prioritized stretchy 4's and will have oodles of space. Minnesota if Thibs is more open about adding shooting (a necessity for the Wolves), but there might be some bad blood from when Thibs coached him. I'm 50-50 on whether or not Chicago brings him back, I guess I'd say I'm slightly leaning towards him coming back.

Noel: Dallas. I could see Boston maxing him out if they miss out on the whales, and that basketball fit is great, but Dallas wouldn't have traded for him if they didn't want him back.

KCP: I don't know what the hell is going on in Detroit, but KCP is too good to let walk for nothing, so I expect him to be back. They'll struggle to avoid the tax next season if they don't offload some money, but even on a max deal KCP is tradable. Get something for him next year if you must. If he had to leave? I like Philly if they don't sign Lowry. Toronto might sniff around if they lost everyone and wanted to just go younger, he'd be a nice backcourt match for DeRozan even if the passing would be an issue. I'd love him as a Knick but with Lee that feels like a pipe dream.

Snell: Milwaukee. No real reason to let him walk unless Monroe opts out and they want to try to create true cap space to chase someone. Not sure who that would be. Probably a shooter. If we insist on him going elsewhere, he was a Thibs guy in Chicago and the Wolves have oodles of space.

Jonathon Simmons: Phoenix. They need a more defensive minded wing for their bench. I think Roberson would be their choice but I think he'd be a bit out of their price range.

Also, how has nobody brought up Redick?

J.J. Redick: Indiana. If they keep Paul George they need to add shooting. This seems like a nice fit, and if they can get rid of Jefferson (either through trade or the stretch provision, see War I mentioned both are you happy?) they should have the space to sign him while retaining Teague's cap hold.

Quinnsanity
05-12-2017, 09:47 PM
Because I think Orlando is the best bet to make a huge swing for a guy like Hayward. They are desperate to be relevant.

Why on Earth would Hayward choose Orlando though? Why is Orlando a better fit than Boston or Utah, or Miami, or even the Lakers? I agree that they take a swing on someone. They have to move some salary first and ownership seems really annoyed with the idea of rebuilding more (we'll see who the new GM is, that will affect this), but I think they'd have to go down a tier to get someone. That's why I say Gallo makes some sense. I don't think Orlando even gets in the room with the automatic max guys.

Scoots
05-12-2017, 10:39 PM
We can basically project any smart player who can shoot to the Spurs.

Does anybody think Carmelo might move? Porz?

I should not have included Porter in my initial list, didn't mean to include restricted free agents. I was assuming every player option was taken to become a free agent.

The 2nd tier has Reddick, Monroe, Gasol, Wade, Ibaka, Hill, Teague, Gay

The 3rd tier has Iguodala, Rose, Waiters, Ilyasova, Tucker, Mills, Korver, Dedmon, Gibson

The 4th tier has Livingston, James Johnson, Nene, Amir Johnson, Deron Williams, McGee, Patterson

WaDe03
05-13-2017, 12:27 AM
Yea Carmelo will for sure be gone. Phil made some more comments today insisting they want him to succeed somewhere, just notNew York.

mrblisterdundee
05-13-2017, 12:37 AM
1. Durant: Warriors
2. Curry: Warriors
3. Hayward: Jazz
4. Griffin: Boston
5. CP3: New Orleans
6. Lowry: San Antonio
7. Millsap: Toronto
8. Holiday: Dallas
9. Gallinari: Denver
10. Porter: Washington

MILLERHIGHLIFE
05-13-2017, 10:50 AM
Yeah my Bucks sound like they wanna keep RFA Snell. Probably since he's the last piece here from the Knight trade. A Snell extension is just to hang onto a asset to be traded later. That's how the Bucks do things. Beasley,Jet UFA's. Moose, Hawes player options. What teams will chase Moose if he opts out? I was thinking him and Hawes both opt out. But lately other Bucks fans think they stay cause of the money.

Bostonjorge
05-13-2017, 02:07 PM
Boston should go after Hayward and Milshap.

CP3 in New Orleans would be a great fit.

Blake in Okc or Houston.

Lowry to the Spurs

Scoots
05-13-2017, 04:18 PM
If the Spurs get Lowry or CP3 and manage to convince LA to play bigger and bring in someone like Gibson to play the 4 ... that's the best possible place for all of those players.

Last year everything was on hold until KD signed ... this year I think everyone is watching the Clippers because their decisions hinge the whole league.

TrueFan420
05-13-2017, 05:02 PM
Wade: Cavs Heat or Spurs
Durant: Heat if Wade goes back

Lol put the pipe down bruh I think you've had enough

Green_Monster
05-13-2017, 05:26 PM
1. KD - Warriors
2. Curry - Warriors
3. Hayward - Toranto or Orlando (if they can clear space)
4. Griffin - Boston
5. CP3 - S&T Boston for Smart, IT, Crowder, Net's swap this year, Nets swap next year and filler. I know unlikely but it's an interesting move.
6. Lowry - Chicago if they let Rondo go, and Wade opts out.
7. Millsap - Atlanta. That 5th year is too much.
8. Holiday - I don't want this to happen but Knicks.
9. Gallinari - Rockets
10. Porter - He'll be back with Washington

Some RFA's:
Mirotic - Nets
Noel - Dallas
KCP - Philly
Snell - LAC
Jonathon Simmons - Nets

That CP3 trade would effectively kill any hope of a title for the Celtics in the next 10 years. They're left with CP3, Bradley, and Horford with barely any other assets. You don't trade IT, both Nets picks, Crowder and Smart for just CP3. Franchise killing move right there. Really bad.

lakerfan85
05-13-2017, 05:48 PM
I think everyone will take the vet minimum and sign with the Warriors or Cavs..

Heediot
05-13-2017, 05:50 PM
5. CP3 - S&T Boston for Smart, IT, Crowder, Net's swap this year, Nets swap next year and filler. I know unlikely but it's an interesting move.


Cp3 is going to be declining soon. Mortgaging your future for a guy that will be past his prime is not a wise move. All those pieces can probably land you both Butler and George almost IMO. Just have to throw a few more picks and prospects.

Tg11
05-13-2017, 06:45 PM
1. KD - Warriors will end up re-signing KD; he won't go anywhere
2. Curry - Warriors will end up re-signing KD; he won't go anywhere either
3. Hayward - Celtics should go after him but will he leave the Jazz though? I doubt it but if he does...Boston could be the next best place for him

4. Griffin - OKC- He could benefit from playing with Westbrook and not to mention isn't Blake from the OKC area?

5. CP3 - Spurs is a real possibility for Paul especially because they will need a PG sooner or later and with him on the Spurs he, Leonard and Aldridge altogether playing would make for a great championship caliber squad

6. Lowry - Raptors would be smart to re-sign Lowry to a long term contract but I think the Lowry era in Toronto is over but as for where he goes? I think the Sixers are the front runners to get him but I could see Lowry also in a Lakers uniform or Lowry going to the Clippers

7. Millsap - Orlando Magic could benefit from getting Milsap

8. Holiday - Knicks

9. Gallinari - Heat

10. Porter - Wizards will re-sign him

etc.

TrueFan420
05-13-2017, 07:14 PM
Who's got cap space? And how much?

aman_13
05-13-2017, 08:27 PM
Even tho Lowry going to Philly makes sense from the standpoint that he's going home, it doesn't in regards to winning a ring. They are still a couple yrs away and that's assuming they stay healthy.

I also doubt he leaves Toronto to play in the same division. He's either returning or going west imo.

Scoots
05-13-2017, 09:16 PM
Even tho Lowry going to Philly makes sense from the standpoint that he's going home, it doesn't in regards to winning a ring. They are still a couple yrs away and that's assuming they stay healthy.

I also doubt he leaves Toronto to play in the same division. He's either returning or going west imo.

Also as the subject is where is best for the player, not for the team ...

Quinnsanity
05-13-2017, 09:27 PM
Even tho Lowry going to Philly makes sense from the standpoint that he's going home, it doesn't in regards to winning a ring. They are still a couple yrs away and that's assuming they stay healthy.

I also doubt he leaves Toronto to play in the same division. He's either returning or going west imo.

This is kind of the point. There isn't a team he could join that would win a championship next year. Barring injury, the Warriors have it locked down for the next several. But Lowry could join the Sixers now, cash in, help develop the young guys, and then compete for titles in his final few seasons in a lesser role. If anything, that seems more meaningful to me especially with his hometown connection.

Cracka2HI!
05-13-2017, 09:50 PM
It's not going to be nearly as exciting as most here are predicting. There isn't enough teams with cap space for their to be very much movement. Only Philly has enough cap space to offer a max deal right now. I'm sure another team or 2 will create max space. The Spurs could be one of those teams. If Gasol opts out they could move Green and/or Parker to get there. If Gasol opts in he should be easy to trade. Boston would have to move a contract like Crowder or Bradley(on top of renouncing everyone else) to offer 1 max contract. I expect them to make a run at one of the big players but settle on keeping their core and a smaller addition, possibly a defensive minded Center. OKC and NO are popular FA destinations by posters but they are both over the cap. About $40 million over in OKC's case. Most players only chance to get that stupid Super-Max deal will be staying with their own team. Teams like the Lakers, Portland, OKC, Washington and Memphis would have done well not to trash their cap space last off-season. With all that said;

1. KD - Warriors
2. Curry - Warriors
3. Hayward - Jazz
4. Griffin - Clippers
5. CP3 - Clippers
6. Lowry - Spurs
7. Millsap - Heat
8. Holiday - Pelicans
9. Gallinari - Denver
10. Porter - Washington

Scoots
05-14-2017, 12:46 AM
It's not going to be nearly as exciting as most here are predicting. There isn't enough teams with cap space for their to be very much movement. Only Philly has enough cap space to offer a max deal right now. I'm sure another team or 2 will create max space. The Spurs could be one of those teams. If Gasol opts out they could move Green and/or Parker to get there. If Gasol opts in he should be easy to trade. Boston would have to move a contract like Crowder or Bradley(on top of renouncing everyone else) to offer 1 max contract. I expect them to make a run at one of the big players but settle on keeping their core and a smaller addition, possibly a defensive minded Center. OKC and NO are popular FA destinations by posters but they are both over the cap. About $40 million over in OKC's case. Most players only chance to get that stupid Super-Max deal will be staying with their own team. Teams like the Lakers, Portland, OKC, Washington and Memphis would have done well not to trash their cap space last off-season. With all that said;

1. KD - Warriors
2. Curry - Warriors
3. Hayward - Jazz
4. Griffin - Clippers
5. CP3 - Clippers
6. Lowry - Spurs
7. Millsap - Heat
8. Holiday - Pelicans
9. Gallinari - Denver
10. Porter - Washington

FWIW, to be eligible for a super max deal the player has to be 8 years in the league, and has to have won all-nba, dpoy, or mvp in the last 3 years, and must have never changed teams as a free agent.

I think the list of unrestricted FAs who can demand the super max is Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Stephen Curry, and Gordon Hayward. That's it. And of them I think the only one who could get it is Curry and I don't think he's going to demand it.

aman_13
05-14-2017, 02:58 AM
This is kind of the point. There isn't a team he could join that would win a championship next year. Barring injury, the Warriors have it locked down for the next several. But Lowry could join the Sixers now, cash in, help develop the young guys, and then compete for titles in his final few seasons in a lesser role. If anything, that seems more meaningful to me especially with his hometown connection.

2 yrs is a best case scenario. Who's to say Embiid remains healthy going forward and Simmons lives up to his expectations. For Embiid in particular, he has yet to show he can play a full 82 game season or anywhere close to that number. .

The future is promising but he would be banking on the youth to gradually improve and do so at an elite rate. That doesn't always happen and young teams typically don't win championships.

I think there are too many unknowns for Lowry to commit to Philly.

Quinnsanity
05-14-2017, 03:59 AM
FWIW, to be eligible for a super max deal the player has to be 8 years in the league, and has to have won all-nba, dpoy, or mvp in the last 3 years, and must have never changed teams as a free agent.

I think the list of unrestricted FAs who can demand the super max is Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Stephen Curry, and Gordon Hayward. That's it. And of them I think the only one who could get it is Curry and I don't think he's going to demand it.

A couple of slight corrections on your super max definition (technically called the Designated Player Exception):

- It only exists for players with either eight or nine years of experience, and pushes them from the 30% max bracket to the 35% max bracket. A player already in the 35% bracket (like Chris Paul) can't get any more than that. The one exception is that you can always make 105% of your previous salary, so if Chris Paul signed a five-year max at 35%, even after that contract expired, he could then sign a one-year deal for 105% of the salary he made in the final season of that deal even if it is above the max.

- To qualify, you have to have won DPOY or made an All NBA Team either in the most recent season, or in two of the previous three. An MVP in any of the previous three seasons automatically qualifies you.

- The technical rule is that you have to either be on the team that drafted you, or on a team that traded for you doing your rookie contract, to qualify rather than just never having changed teams as a free agent. In most cases these would be the same thing, but there would be rare exceptions.

With that in mind, Gordon Hayward is ineligible as he has only seven years of experience (though some have speculated he would sign a 1+1 to try to get it next year), and Blake Griffin is ineligible as he will likely have only made one All NBA team in the past three seasons (2014-15, I doubt he'll make it this year). Chris Paul is also ineligible as he has 12 years of experience.

The players who are eligible immediately, no matter what, are Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook. If Paul George makes an All NBA Team this season, he will be eligible as well (he has only seven years of experience, but as he has one season left on his contract it wouldn't actually kick in until after his eighth season). That is the entire list at this moment. The criteria were meant to be extremely difficult to reach.


2 yrs is a best case scenario. Who's to say Embiid remains healthy going forward and Simmons lives up to his expectations. For Embiid in particular, he has yet to show he can play a full 82 game season or anywhere close to that number. .

The future is promising but he would be banking on the youth to gradually improve and do so at an elite rate. That doesn't always happen and young teams typically don't win championships.

I think there are too many unknowns for Lowry to commit to Philly.

What's the alternative. Even if Lowry signed with the Spurs for the minimum, they would have virtually no chance of beating Golden State. Even if he went to Cleveland as Kyrie's backup that would be the case. There is nowhere he can sign that seems remotely capable of beating the Warriors.

So why not align yourself with a team that can win championships when they're done doing it? Why not wait out the Warriors? Philly is his best bet to do so. He can win a championship when he's 37 or 38. It doesn't have to happen now. Rings are rings.

Saddletramp
05-14-2017, 07:09 AM
^^^ The way Lowry plays, I dunno if he makes it to 37 or 38 in the NBA.

Scoots
05-14-2017, 09:26 AM
A couple of slight corrections on your super max definition (technically called the Designated Player Exception):

The players who are eligible immediately, no matter what, are Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook. If Paul George makes an All NBA Team this season, he will be eligible as well (he has only seven years of experience, but as he has one season left on his contract it wouldn't actually kick in until after his eighth season). That is the entire list at this moment. The criteria were meant to be extremely difficult to reach.

I read the rules and pared them down for expediency.

You are right, while CP3 could get paid "super max" money ... it is not accelerated earlier in his career.

Blake Griffin has 8 years in the NBA ... he was drafted in 2009 so I thought he made the list but you are right about the all-nba.

I left Westbrook and George off my list because they are not unrestricted which means they will not be leaving money on the table to sign elsewhere this off-season.

The rule was speculated to be targeted at the Warriors ... interesting how the only qualifying UFA is Curry :)

Back to the original point ... I was responding to "Most players only chance to get that stupid Super-Max deal will be staying with their own team." and trying to point out that "Most players" have no chance of getting a super-max deal ever and this year it's even fewer.

warfelg
05-14-2017, 10:30 AM
To the people constantly putting down the Lowry to Philly talk I'll give a few reasons why it makes sense:

1) He returns home.
2) He himself has said a few times that as long as LeBron is around no one is making it out of the east. I don't buy it, but he might think that a ring is a slim chance.
3) Off the court it makes sense. This team needs a respected starting quality vet to help lead them. They have a lot of fun, but I don't think there's a whole lot of how to win talk.
4) On the court it makes sense. His skill set blends with Simmons and Embiids skill sets well. He can be a jump shooter, can bring the ball up when needed.
5) I actually think the timeline fits. His contract will come off the books right as all these rookies get expensive. He helps us win, then by the time we are ready to compete he is either off the team or a vet min ring chaser.

Almost every young team ends up needing to overpay one of these old-ish star players at some point. 2018's FA class does not have many of them (depending on who signs what this year). I rather just sign a guy like this than throw away a bunch of assets in a trade.

aman_13
05-14-2017, 10:58 AM
What's the alternative. Even if Lowry signed with the Spurs for the minimum, they would have virtually no chance of beating Golden State. Even if he went to Cleveland as Kyrie's backup that would be the case. There is nowhere he can sign that seems remotely capable of beating the Warriors.

So why not align yourself with a team that can win championships when they're done doing it? Why not wait out the Warriors? Philly is his best bet to do so. He can win a championship when he's 37 or 38. It doesn't have to happen now. Rings are rings.

His immediate goal is to win a ring. That's what he said. Philly isn't winning one anytime soon. I also doubt Lowry plays to 37.

With the Spurs, he gets to compete now and perhaps the Pelicans are an option. Surround Lowry, Cousins and Davis with shooters and you got a championship caliber team.

JAZZNC
05-14-2017, 11:09 AM
Surround Lowry, Cousins and Davis with shooters and you got a championship caliber team.

No you don't. That team would be oft injured and has Cousins on the roster. Not a recipe for success.

MILLERHIGHLIFE
05-14-2017, 11:51 AM
To the people constantly putting down the Lowry to Philly talk I'll give a few reasons why it makes sense:

1) He returns home.
2) He himself has said a few times that as long as LeBron is around no one is making it out of the east. I don't buy it, but he might think that a ring is a slim chance.
3) Off the court it makes sense. This team needs a respected starting quality vet to help lead them. They have a lot of fun, but I don't think there's a whole lot of how to win talk.
4) On the court it makes sense. His skill set blends with Simmons and Embiids skill sets well. He can be a jump shooter, can bring the ball up when needed.
5) I actually think the timeline fits. His contract will come off the books right as all these rookies get expensive. He helps us win, then by the time we are ready to compete he is either off the team or a vet min ring chaser.

Almost every young team ends up needing to overpay one of these old-ish star players at some point. 2018's FA class does not have many of them (depending on who signs what this year). I rather just sign a guy like this than throw away a bunch of assets in a trade.

I don't think its to far fetched of 76ers making playoffs. 76ers would need a healthy season. Add Lowry could just be enough. Then that weakens the Raptors. Not sure if Raptors do a complete rebuild if Lowry bolts. Or they do a quick reload and add some other guard or bring Ibaka back. But Raptors could stumble if a few big names bolt.

Then if Pacers decide to unload PG13 to Lakers. That's another team nose diving. Then if Bulls finally rebuild and trade Butler to Celtics. Then Wade bolts for a ring. Then Bulls rebuild. So that's like 3 teams out of the playoff hunt. Then you got the Hawks up in the air ready to dump Howard. Millsap could bolt. The east could look different very quickly.

I haven't checked the 76ers capspace. But if they could add Lowry and another decent free agent and healthy Embiid and lottery picks added. Man they could be stocked. Adding a few free agents could mask the short comings of the youth movement quickly.

warfelg
05-14-2017, 12:11 PM
I don't think its to far fetched of 76ers making playoffs. 76ers would need a healthy season. Add Lowry could just be enough. Then that weakens the Raptors. Not sure if Raptors do a complete rebuild if Lowry bolts. Or they do a quick reload and add some other guard or bring Ibaka back. But Raptors could stumble if a few big names bolt.

Then if Pacers decide to unload PG13 to Lakers. That's another team nose diving. Then if Bulls finally rebuild and trade Butler to Celtics. Then Wade bolts for a ring. Then Bulls rebuild. So that's like 3 teams out of the playoff hunt. Then you got the Hawks up in the air ready to dump Howard. Millsap could bolt. The east could look different very quickly.

I haven't checked the 76ers capspace. But if they could add Lowry and another decent free agent and healthy Embiid and lottery picks added. Man they could be stocked. Adding a few free agents could mask the short comings of the youth movement quickly.

We have $35 mil on committed salaries if we don't pick up options and not counting rookies.

Going with the idea that we're going to have roughly $42 mil in committed salaries, which give $60 mil (give or take) in cap space.

EDIT:
The only place I don't think Lowry makes sense is his age. Being 31, he would be a 1 contract player for us. I think I would prefer someone 26-29 to be that max player that we bring in.

aman_13
05-14-2017, 12:17 PM
No you don't. That team would be oft injured and has Cousins on the roster. Not a recipe for success.

Talent wise, they would have a trio that can rival with any team in the NBA. How they would play together, health, etc., has risk factors. However, with the way the NBA landscape is set up right now, I'd take that risk.

Cracka2HI!
05-14-2017, 01:41 PM
FWIW, to be eligible for a super max deal the player has to be 8 years in the league, and has to have won all-nba, dpoy, or mvp in the last 3 years, and must have never changed teams as a free agent.

I think the list of unrestricted FAs who can demand the super max is Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Stephen Curry, and Gordon Hayward. That's it. And of them I think the only one who could get it is Curry and I don't think he's going to demand it.

I don't know all the technicalities but current teams can still pay their players much more than other teams. CP3 for example is eligible for a 5 year deal worth over $200 million. I'm not sure what another team can offer him but I know it's only 4 years. Blake is eligible for a 5 year $150+ million contract with the Clippers. He too will be leaving a lot of money on the table if he leaves. Same with Hayward, Lowry, Milsap, ect. I think Lowry and Milsap may move because I don't see their teams offering them 5 year deals at $30+ million per season. The 1+1 option does make some sense for Hayward but it's a risky contract for someone outside of LeBron and Durant to take. Those players could sign 1 year deals for the rest of their career and not leave any $ on the table. Most players need the security of that 5 year deal anytime they can get it.

FlashBolt
05-14-2017, 01:42 PM
I would love to play for Mark Cuban. Dude is one of the brightest minds out there. Is usually almost always objective. Would set you up for life if you deserve it. The way he is treating Dirk is nothing short of professional. Dude loves loyalty and Dallas is one of the best cities IMO. Food is great, people are outgoing, and very passionate sports fans.

CELTICS4LYFE
05-14-2017, 04:13 PM
I think a healthy Blake would be better than Hayward for Boston....keyword healthy

IT/Bradley/Crowdah/Blake/Horford

Dade County
05-14-2017, 06:47 PM
Curry & KD:
Both re-up with GS. 5yr max contract.

Blake:
Signs with Clips or Miami.

Hayward:
I believe his first meeting will be with Boston, if he leaves without signing, then i think he's agent will sale him on his contract with the Jazz.

Wild card team, HEAT. Pat can unload contracts & try to bring in 2 all stars.

Cp3:
New Orleans or Clips.

Lowry:
Whoever is stupid enough to offer him the most money.

Millsap:
Wiz or Rockets

Gallinari:
Lots of teams will be after him, especially after the key free agents sign with teams.

He might get max money. Teams he's offensive style fits... Denver, Houston, Miami, Boston.

Wiz need someone like him also.

warfelg
05-14-2017, 07:31 PM
What a shocker that a Heat fan thinks that everyone should sign with them...

Scoots
05-14-2017, 07:41 PM
I don't know all the technicalities but current teams can still pay their players much more than other teams. CP3 for example is eligible for a 5 year deal worth over $200 million. I'm not sure what another team can offer him but I know it's only 4 years. Blake is eligible for a 5 year $150+ million contract with the Clippers. He too will be leaving a lot of money on the table if he leaves. Same with Hayward, Lowry, Milsap, ect. I think Lowry and Milsap may move because I don't see their teams offering them 5 year deals at $30+ million per season. The 1+1 option does make some sense for Hayward but it's a risky contract for someone outside of LeBron and Durant to take. Those players could sign 1 year deals for the rest of their career and not leave any $ on the table. Most players need the security of that 5 year deal anytime they can get it.

True ... for the most part the home team can pay more ... it's just that the super max deal is going to have essentially no effect on free agency.

Quinnsanity
05-14-2017, 08:05 PM
I don't know all the technicalities but current teams can still pay their players much more than other teams. CP3 for example is eligible for a 5 year deal worth over $200 million. I'm not sure what another team can offer him but I know it's only 4 years. Blake is eligible for a 5 year $150+ million contract with the Clippers. He too will be leaving a lot of money on the table if he leaves. Same with Hayward, Lowry, Milsap, ect. I think Lowry and Milsap may move because I don't see their teams offering them 5 year deals at $30+ million per season. The 1+1 option does make some sense for Hayward but it's a risky contract for someone outside of LeBron and Durant to take. Those players could sign 1 year deals for the rest of their career and not leave any $ on the table. Most players need the security of that 5 year deal anytime they can get it.

Ok, just so we have all of this down, assuming there's a $101 million cap, here are the four relevant max contracts this summer (rounded):

30% max, with their own team (five years, 8% annual raises):

Year 1: $30.3 million
Year 2: $32.7 million
Year 3: $35.1 million
Year 4: $37.5 million
Year 5: $40 million

Total: $175.6 million

30% max, with another team (four years, 5% annual raises):

Year 1: $30.3 million
Year 2: $31.8 million
Year 3: $33.3 million
Year 4: $34.8 million

Total: $130.2 million

35% max, with own team (five years, 8% annual raises):

Year 1: $35.3 million
Year 2: $38.2 million
Year 3: $41 million
Year 4: $43.8 million
Year 5: $46.7 million

$205 million

35% max, with another team (four year, 5% raises):

Year 1: $35.3 million
Year 2: $37.1 million
Year 3: $38.9 million
Year 4: $40.7 million

Total: $152 million

Major free agents eligible for 30% max: Blake Griffin, Gordon Hayward, Jrue Holiday, Danilo Gallinari, Serge Ibaka

Major free agents eligible for 35% max: Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Paul Millsap, Kyle Lowry

Also note that teams can only have two players on five-year contracts at a time. This matters most for Jrue Holiday, as the Pelicans have Anthony Davis on a five-year contract and will save their other slot for DeMarcus Cousins next year, and Serge Ibaka, as DeMar DeRozan has a five-year deal and Lowry would probably like one if he stays as well.


Curry & KD:
Both re-up with GS. 5yr max contract.

Blake:
Signs with Clips or Miami.

Hayward:
I believe his first meeting will be with Boston, if he leaves without signing, then i think he's agent will sale him on his contract with the Jazz.

Wild card team, HEAT. Pat can unload contracts & try to bring in 2 all stars.

Cp3:
New Orleans or Clips.

Lowry:
Whoever is stupid enough to offer him the most money.

Millsap:
Wiz or Rockets

Gallinari:
Lots of teams will be after him, especially after the key free agents sign with teams.

He might get max money. Teams he's offensive style fits... Denver, Houston, Miami, Boston.

Wiz need someone like him also.

Heat can't afford two maxes with Whiteside and Dragic. Those two combine for $40.8 million or so next season. Two 30% maxes would be $60.6 million in year 1. That in itself is over the $101 million projected cap, but you also have to add blank roster charges of $815,000 (next year's rookie minimum) for the empty spots, taking the total to ljust under $108 million. So even if they traded every other player on the roster and their pick, and good luck doing that, the best they could do is one max and another guy in the $23-24 million range. Frankly I don't think Miami even has the clout to get two guys like that at this point. They didn't even make the playoffs last year.


We have $35 mil on committed salaries if we don't pick up options and not counting rookies.

Going with the idea that we're going to have roughly $42 mil in committed salaries, which give $60 mil (give or take) in cap space.

EDIT:
The only place I don't think Lowry makes sense is his age. Being 31, he would be a 1 contract player for us. I think I would prefer someone 26-29 to be that max player that we bring in.

Who even is that guy though? Durant, Curry and Hayward won't seriously consider them. Jrue can make more money in New Orleans, and even if he couldn't, the Sixers traded him. There's probably some bad blood there. Hill is 31 and has a pretty extensive injury history. Teague is a horrific fit with Simmons. Patty Mills isn't that caliber of player. KCP is restricted. Why not just take the great player who probably wants to be there? Let him give your team some credibility and help get them into the playoffs next year, which would be important reps for the youngsters. There isn't an ideal free agent out there. So take the All Star that might actually want to be there and assume that if things go as planned, he'll play for the vet's minimum/cap exceptions after this deal to stay a part of the contender he helped build


His immediate goal is to win a ring. That's what he said. Philly isn't winning one anytime soon. I also doubt Lowry plays to 37.

With the Spurs, he gets to compete now and perhaps the Pelicans are an option. Surround Lowry, Cousins and Davis with shooters and you got a championship caliber team.

Competing with the Warriors, unless you're LeBron or you're a Spurs team with CP3, is probably unrealistic for the time being. The Spurs with Lowry might win a game or two against GSW but certainly not a series barring injury. His best chance for a ring overall is to position himself on a team that can win one later (unless he's willing to go be a backup on the Warriors, which he obviously isn't).

Also, I see a lot of people saying guys like CP3 and Lowry should consider the Pelicans. That won't happen. First of all, the Pelicans don't have cap space. They can only bring back Jrue Holiday on Bird Rights, most of their money is wasted on terrible contracts (take your pick, Asik, Hill, Moore, Ajinca etc...). Sure, they could move those guys and create max space to chase CP3 or Lowry, but that would cost them plenty of picks. How are they going to find shooting without picks to trade? They certainly won't have the money, shooters are expensive. It would be great if the Pellies could sign CP3 AND Redick AND Otto Porter. It's just unrealistic.

If I were New Orleans, I almost feel like I'd go for broke this offseason, use my picks to create as much space as possible, use that space on shooters while retaining Jrue's cap hold, and then go over the cap to bring Jrue back. That's their only path to contention in my eyes. They have to figure this out NOW. If they aren't contenders next year, Boogie will leave as a free agent.

Scoots
05-14-2017, 08:34 PM
Also note that teams can only have two players on five-year contracts at a time. This matters most for Jrue Holiday, as the Pelicans have Anthony Davis on a five-year contract and will save their other slot for DeMarcus Cousins next year, and Serge Ibaka, as DeMar DeRozan has a five-year deal and Lowry would probably like one if he stays as well.

That I didn't know.

Dade County
05-14-2017, 09:41 PM
What a shocker that a Heat fan thinks that everyone should sign with them...

Everyone? Come on man, just stop it.



Heat can't afford two maxes with Whiteside and Dragic. Those two combine for $40.8 million or so next season. Two 30% maxes would be $60.6 million in year 1. That in itself is over the $101 million projected cap, but you also have to add blank roster charges of $815,000 (next year's rookie minimum) for the empty spots, taking the total to ljust under $108 million. So even if they traded every other player on the roster and their pick, and good luck doing that, the best they could do is one max and another guy in the $23-24 million range. Frankly I don't think Miami even has the clout to get two guys like that at this point. They didn't even make the playoffs last year.


I had to re-read my post.

I didn't say Miami would hand out two max contracts, but i can understand why you would jump to that conclusion.

I mentioned Miami as a dark horse, but of course they would have to trade Dragic, McRob & Winslow to free up cap space. We all know Bosh ontract is going to be taken care of.

So yes, if Miami wanted too, they can go after & sign two all star caliber players.

Pat can sale there 30-11 record at the back half of the season, and explain they were very injured in the first half of the season. this is in regards to your "they didn't make the playoffs"comment.

More-Than-Most
05-14-2017, 09:57 PM
What a shocker that a Heat fan thinks that everyone should sign with them...

when did this start lol... Like I get they got lebron/bosh but that was all lebrons doing... They dont have a wade there etc... Right now why would anyone want to sign with the head? I just dont see it.

More-Than-Most
05-14-2017, 09:59 PM
Everyone? Come on man, just stop it.



I had to re-read my post.

I didn't say Miami would hand out two max contracts, but i can understand why you would jump to that conclusion.

I mentioned Miami as a dark horse, but of course they would have to trade Dragic, McRob & Winslow to free up cap space. We all know Bosh ontract is going to be taken care of.

So yes, if Miami wanted too, they can go after & sign two all star caliber players.

Pat can sale there 30-11 record at the back half of the season, and explain they were very injured in the first half of the season. this is in regards to your "they didn't make the playoffs"comment.

but they had that record because of a guy like dragic... freeing him up so you can sign 2 players would take away from that 2nd half record no?

Cracka2HI!
05-14-2017, 10:08 PM
Ok, just so we have all of this down, assuming there's a $101 million cap, here are the four relevant max contracts this summer (rounded):

30% max, with their own team (five years, 8% annual raises):

Year 1: $30.3 million
Year 2: $32.7 million
Year 3: $35.1 million
Year 4: $37.5 million
Year 5: $40 million

Total: $175.6 million

30% max, with another team (four years, 5% annual raises):

Year 1: $30.3 million
Year 2: $31.8 million
Year 3: $33.3 million
Year 4: $34.8 million

Total: $130.2 million

35% max, with own team (five years, 8% annual raises):

Year 1: $35.3 million
Year 2: $38.2 million
Year 3: $41 million
Year 4: $43.8 million
Year 5: $46.7 million

$205 million

35% max, with another team (four year, 5% raises):

Year 1: $35.3 million
Year 2: $37.1 million
Year 3: $38.9 million
Year 4: $40.7 million

Total: $152 million

Major free agents eligible for 30% max: Blake Griffin, Gordon Hayward, Jrue Holiday, Danilo Gallinari, Serge Ibaka

Major free agents eligible for 35% max: Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Paul Millsap, Kyle Lowry

Also note that teams can only have two players on five-year contracts at a time. This matters most for Jrue Holiday, as the Pelicans have Anthony Davis on a five-year contract and will save their other slot for DeMarcus Cousins next year, and Serge Ibaka, as DeMar DeRozan has a five-year deal and Lowry would probably like one if he stays as well.



.
Thanks for posting. This information should be posted here. Many posters would do well to review this and the cap room situations for most teams. I also have no idea why so many think NOP is a FA destination. They will have the MLE and likely blow it on a terrible player. These salary #'s are the main reason I don't worry much about CP3 and Blake leaving The Clippers. Blake would be leaving $45 million on the table to leave and CP3 over $50 million. I don't see them doing it but if they do The Clippers won't be stuck paying those crazy year 4 and 5 contracts.

WaDe03
05-14-2017, 10:28 PM
when did this start lol... Like I get they got lebron/bosh but that was all lebrons doing... They dont have a wade there etc... Right now why would anyone want to sign with the head? I just dont see it.

That was Wades doing, but like you said he isn't there anymore.

Dade County
05-14-2017, 10:50 PM
but they had that record because of a guy like dragic... freeing him up so you can sign 2 players would take away from that 2nd half record no?

It depends what you would replace Dragic with. Pros & cons, lets leave that up to Spo & Pat.

Pat will try, it's his job. Just cause i pointed that they can try to target two all stars doesn't mean they will land any of them.

FlashBolt
05-14-2017, 10:57 PM
It's rigged if the Heat sign a free agent.. it can't happen. I think Mark Cuban should investigate.

Jamiecballer
05-14-2017, 11:39 PM
To the people constantly putting down the Lowry to Philly talk I'll give a few reasons why it makes sense:

1) He returns home.
2) He himself has said a few times that as long as LeBron is around no one is making it out of the east. I don't buy it, but he might think that a ring is a slim chance.
3) Off the court it makes sense. This team needs a respected starting quality vet to help lead them. They have a lot of fun, but I don't think there's a whole lot of how to win talk.
4) On the court it makes sense. His skill set blends with Simmons and Embiids skill sets well. He can be a jump shooter, can bring the ball up when needed.
5) I actually think the timeline fits. His contract will come off the books right as all these rookies get expensive. He helps us win, then by the time we are ready to compete he is either off the team or a vet min ring chaser.

Almost every young team ends up needing to overpay one of these old-ish star players at some point. 2018's FA class does not have many of them (depending on who signs what this year). I rather just sign a guy like this than throw away a bunch of assets in a trade.
Don't forget colangelo is an idiot who would blow his load on something others were running from.

Sent from my SM-T530NU using Tapatalk

Quinnsanity
05-15-2017, 12:00 AM
That I didn't know.

Yup, gonna be interesting to see how some of the younger teams handle it. Minnesota has LaVine and Wiggins up for extensions this summer. How will LaVine feel hearing, "sorry man, we can't give you five years, Towns is coming up." Jabari can't get one from the Bucks either because of Middleton and Giannis. The most famous case of this is OKC, who couldn't give Harden a fifth year because they'd already done it for Westbrook and Durant.


Thanks for posting. This information should be posted here. Many posters would do well to review this and the cap room situations for most teams. I also have no idea why so many think NOP is a FA destination. They will have the MLE and likely blow it on a terrible player. These salary #'s are the main reason I don't worry much about CP3 and Blake leaving The Clippers. Blake would be leaving $45 million on the table to leave and CP3 over $50 million. I don't see them doing it but if they do The Clippers won't be stuck paying those crazy year 4 and 5 contracts.

I hate pimping myself on here, but I'm doing cap primers for every team here (https://thesportspost.com/nba-salary-cap-primers-for-every-team/). If anyone wants to know about a team's specific cap situation, that's where they're posted. Atlantic and Pacific divisions are up already, Central is this week, will go for the next four, but I have all of the others done so if anyone has any questions on unposted teams just ask.

LOb0
05-15-2017, 12:01 AM
Its hard to fathom someone is going to give Blake a max contact. He's the classic Shawn Kemp, career ready to fall off a cliff guy. And he's always hurt.

I wouldn't go near him with max dollars.

More-Than-Most
05-15-2017, 12:21 AM
Id love Lowry as a sixer fan but id prefer Holiday just as much... You will have to give either a max nomatter what... I sure as hell wouldnt want to give blake a max if I am any team... DUDE IS GLASS.

kobe4thewinbang
05-15-2017, 01:10 AM
I think the sixers go after Lowry but Id rather have Holiday..Not saying you're wrong about them 76ers loving injury prone dudes.

kobe4thewinbang
05-15-2017, 01:16 AM
Free agent by free agent what situation would fit them best where that team could reasonably work out the signing or S&T?

1. KD - Warriors
2. Curry - Warriors
3. Hayward - Jazz
4. Griffin - OKC - S&T
5. CP3 - Spurs - I don't know how
6. Lowry -
7. Millsap -
8. Holiday -
9. Gallinari -
10. Porter -

etc.1.Durant will sign with the Warriors, cuz he's a punk coward.

2. Curry ain't all that anymore, so he'll stick around.

3. Hayward should go to the Celtics. Jazz ain't winning squat, but they can offer the most money. If he joined the Celtics, they'd give LeBron a run for his money next season. He could also go to the Clippers in a S&T for Blake Griffin because Clippers need an SF.

4. Blake will sign with And 1 because that's all he's good for these days.
j/k
Peeps keep saying OKC but why the heck would they want him?

5. Paul's gonna stick around with the Clippers.
Spurs would probably have to not re-sign anybody to be able to sign him.

6. Lowry needs to ride out his time on some fun little team that needs a star. He's too injury prone to even play in May. Let's say the Nuggets.

7. Millsap should join the Spurs in a trade for Aldridge.

8. Holiday should go to Dallas.

9. Gallinari should go to the Thunder.

warfelg
05-15-2017, 07:42 AM
Who even is that guy though? Durant, Curry and Hayward won't seriously consider them. Jrue can make more money in New Orleans, and even if he couldn't, the Sixers traded him. There's probably some bad blood there. Hill is 31 and has a pretty extensive injury history. Teague is a horrific fit with Simmons. Patty Mills isn't that caliber of player. KCP is restricted. Why not just take the great player who probably wants to be there? Let him give your team some credibility and help get them into the playoffs next year, which would be important reps for the youngsters. There isn't an ideal free agent out there. So take the All Star that might actually want to be there and assume that if things go as planned, he'll play for the vet's minimum/cap exceptions after this deal to stay a part of the contender he helped build


Well, that's the issue is Lowry is about the only guy that we could bring in. I don't think there's that much bad blood there with Jrue because he still loves the city and the city still loves him.

Hill wouldn't cost as much as Lowry (in theory) which is why I would be ok with taking him on even with that history.

Patty Mills is actually a good idea for us, because Brown wants to run the Spurs system offense, but I don't think Mills leaves SA.

KCP is someone we should take a run at dependent on the lottery.

It's kinda like I pointed out:
There's a lot of good reasons to like the fit of Lowry with the Sixers, however the age things is a little strange, but at the same time, as you pointed at (and I was hinting at) there was no "middleground" type guy that we could sign.

Scoots
05-15-2017, 08:53 AM
We can't predict the "ring chaser" discount CP3 or Lowry will offer. If it's substantial then a lot more options open up. And getting a ring or even getting to the finals pays off monetarily in the long run if you are central to the story.

warfelg
05-15-2017, 09:07 AM
We can't predict the "ring chaser" discount CP3 or Lowry will offer. If it's substantial then a lot more options open up. And getting a ring or even getting to the finals pays off monetarily in the long run if you are central to the story.

Lowry is more likely to do that than CP3.

Don't forget CP3 is the head of player reps, and him and LBJ were the ones that pushed for these supermax rules and huge paydays. If he pushed that hard for it and doesn't take it, there will be a huge discord among the players in the next CBA talks.

But that's just my opinion.

Scoots
05-15-2017, 09:47 AM
One possible factor in KD accepting less than what he could demand to stay in GS is Nike wanting him in GS to counter UA's only star in Curry. A friend who works in a sports agents office (and used to work in the Oracle arena administration office) there are rumors that KD is making a LOT (~$50M) more money because he's in GS. I didn't realize it before, but supposedly KD is part of Nike's deal with the University of Texas too ... I wonder how many players are part of $300M college deals too?

If we look at the shoe deal side of player movement ... I wonder what that effect has on CP3, Griffin, George and the other stars in talks about moving?

Scoots
05-15-2017, 09:49 AM
Lowry is more likely to do that than CP3.

Don't forget CP3 is the head of player reps, and him and LBJ were the ones that pushed for these supermax rules and huge paydays. If he pushed that hard for it and doesn't take it, there will be a huge discord among the players in the next CBA talks.

But that's just my opinion.

It's a good point that CP3 has argued that max players should demand the max ... that said, I don't think the Clippers should pay CP3 the max and if they won't/can't ... I don't see anywhere else he'll be able to get it who also have a chance to be better than the Clippers.

hugepatsfan
05-15-2017, 10:00 AM
The Celtics have 7 players under guaranteed contracts:

Al Horford - $27,734,405
Avery Bradley - $8,808,989
Jae Crowder - $6,796,117
Isaiah Thomas - $6,261,395
Jaylen Brown - $4,956,480
Marcus Smart - $4,538,020
Terry Rozier - $1,988,520

That's a total of $61,083,926. We also have a $650K partial guarantee to Demetrius Jackson (out of $1,384,750). I imagine we could easily salary dump that using a 2nd round pick but in the event we can't, we'd just keep him on the roster since the $734,750 is less than the minimum roster spot charge of $815,615 it would create. So for now I would include him.

The Celtics are also expected to bring over last year's 1st round picks of Guershon Yabusele and Ante Zizic. They will carry cap holds of $2,247,480 and $1,645,200, respectively.

Add in those three (Jackson, Yabusele, Zizic) and now BOS is at $66,361,356 for 10 players.

The last thing to factor in is the cap hold for the BRK pick. We'll know exactly tomorrow but we know for sure it can be no lower than #4. This cap hold will be our #11 player and then a potential FA signing would be the 12th which gets us up to the minimum, so no need to factor in roster space cap holds. Cap holds for the draft pick are as follows:

#1 pick - $7,026,240 (brings team salary up to $73,387,596 which leaves $27,612,405 of cap room)
#2 pick - $6,286,560 (brings team salary up to $72,647,916 which leaves $28,352,085 of cap room)
#3 pick - $5,645,400 (brings team salary up to $72,006,756 which leaves $28,993,245 of cap room)
#4 pick - $5,090,040 (brings team salary up to $71,451,396 which leaves $29,548,605 of cap room)

A max for Hayward or Blake will be $30,300,000 using a $101M cap projection. So depending on where th epick lands BOS needs to clear the following amounts:

#1 pick - $2,687,596
#2 pick - $1,947,916
#3 pick - $1,306,756
#4 pick - $751,396

Keep in mind that the FA signing would be BOS's minimum 12th player. So if they start clearing guys out to make room, you have to subtract from the savings a $815,615 minimum roster charge. The net savings of the following players are below:

Smart - $3,722,405
Rozier - $1,172,905
Yabusele (can leave him overseas instead of dumping him) - $1,431,865
Jackson - $734,750
(Not including Zizic because he really seems ready by most accounts and fills a need as a bigger inside guy - Yabu is still a little more developmental I think)

If BOS gets the #1 pick, they can free up enough cap space by salary dumping Rozier/Jackson and dumping/stashing Yabusele. If they drop down to #4 salary dumping just Jackson will get them within $40K of a max (if Hayward/Blake are willing to leave money on the table to leave their teams then I have to think that last $40K won't be an issue). If they get #2 or #3 then salary dumping Rozier and Jackson will be enough.

If we do get #1, I wonder if they would rather dump Smart than those other combinations because he will be up for a contract after next year and along with a max signing this year and IT/Bradley being FAs next year it could get pricey. Rozier would be cheap for an extra year and if we're getting #1 we're getting Fultz which probably means a reduced role for Smart anyways.

But back to the larger point - BOS has a very reasonable path to offer a max. We have to let Olynyk walk but he's being replaced by Zizic coming over (though there's risk with a rookie). Smart or Rozier, if salary dumped, would be getting replaced by the guard we draft with the BRK pick. Amir would be replaced in the starting lineup by either Hayward or Blake if we signed them. Gerald Green and Jerebko sometimes play but they'd be replaced with vet min guys just fine. There are some different lineup possibilities with those replacements (i.e. if you sign Hayward do you start Crowder at PF or do you sign a vet min/room exception big to start next to Horford and play Crowder off the bench) but in terms of guys in the rotation vs. out it's a good situation. There's some risk with Olynyk being replaced by a rookie but overall I think the talent in is easily better than the talent out.

If BOS can't land Hayward or Blake I expect them to go down a tier to Galinari because Ainge likes him supposedly. He brings a lot of the same things Hayward does, albeit at a lower level of course. But cap space is use it or lose it for us this offseason. Depending on what he gets we might even be able to still sneak in Olynyk's cap hold and onto him going forward as well.

Trades are also in play too but I think we'd use the cap space and then go over the cap in trades.

warfelg
05-15-2017, 10:07 AM
It's a good point that CP3 has argued that max players should demand the max ... that said, I don't think the Clippers should pay CP3 the max and if they won't/can't ... I don't see anywhere else he'll be able to get it who also have a chance to be better than the Clippers.

Don't disagree with any of that.

But he'll get it. I think that the Clips ultimately panic this offseason and bring everyone back.

celtNYpatsHeels
05-15-2017, 11:18 AM
1. KD - Warriors
2. Curry - Warriors
3. Hayward - Jazz
4. Griffin - Thunder
5. CP3 - Spurs
6. Lowry - Pelicans
7. Millsap - Nets or Hawks
8. Holiday - Dallas
9. Gallinari - Celtics
10. Ibaka - Hawks if Milsap leaves. Knicks

Saddletramp
05-15-2017, 01:17 PM
One possible factor in KD accepting less than what he could demand to stay in GS is Nike wanting him in GS to counter UA's only star in Curry. A friend who works in a sports agents office (and used to work in the Oracle arena administration office) there are rumors that KD is making a LOT (~$50M) more money because he's in GS. I didn't realize it before, but supposedly KD is part of Nike's deal with the University of Texas too ... I wonder how many players are part of $300M college deals too?

If we look at the shoe deal side of player movement ... I wonder what that effect has on CP3, Griffin, George and the other stars in talks about moving?


I hate the endorsement side of this stuff. Who's to say Nike wouldn't offer to cover the difference of what he could make wherever he goes? All of these higher up players could take $5 million a year and have their shoe companies pay the $20-25 million difference. Big markets and endorsement deals are starting to ruin sports.

Scoots
05-15-2017, 10:18 PM
I hate the endorsement side of this stuff. Who's to say Nike wouldn't offer to cover the difference of what he could make wherever he goes? All of these higher up players could take $5 million a year and have their shoe companies pay the $20-25 million difference. Big markets and endorsement deals are starting to ruin sports.

I'm fairly sure it's nothing new where non-basketball reasons influence where players sign. And in this case I think it was not as much about market size, but getting a Nike star on Curry's team. But yeah, my point was that people keep talking about salary like it's THE deciding factor ... if you are sitting on a $300M merch deal the difference between $100M (4 at $25) and $140M (4 at $35) is not a 40% increase but rather a 10% increase ($400M to $440M) and 10% can be made up by "better marketing opportunities".

Agents are forbidding their players from working out for the Kings and Celtics ... the Kings because they are a nightmare, and the Celtics because there is no obvious hole for a pick to slide in to.

Melo has to stay in NY because of his wife.

Iguodala liked the Bay Area as a prime option because he wants to be involved in tech and finance.

People keep putting Griffin in OKC because it's "home".