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JasonJohnHorn
04-26-2017, 09:07 AM
The MVP is a regular season award, but it's hard not to look at the entire season, playoffs included, when determining who actually is the most valuable player to his team.

That said, I realize regular season MVP should only factor in the regular season, and indeed, the votes are cast before the playoffs even start, but that said... how would the post-season impact who you vote for were you casting a ballot after the post-season?

With the Thunder eliminated in the first round, having only earned a single victory in the playoffs, would Westbrook still warrant a vote near the top of the list? I mean... how valuable can one guy be if all he got you was a single win in the post-season?

Would the performance James just pounded home in a four-game sweep of the Pacers make him a little more deserving?


Should the entirety of the playoffs be weighed in? Especially now given that the award won't be handed out until after the playoffs?

Scoots
04-26-2017, 09:44 AM
If you look for playoffs MVP it's pretty much always LeBron, just like it was pretty much always Jordan. LeBron coasting through portions of the regular season rules him out for that award because we can see now what a fully engaged LeBron looks like.

My regular season MVP "vote" went to Kawhi, and the playoffs have supported that position.

JasonJohnHorn
04-26-2017, 10:11 AM
If you look for playoffs MVP it's pretty much always LeBron, just like it was pretty much always Jordan. LeBron coasting through portions of the regular season rules him out for that award because we can see now what a fully engaged LeBron looks like.

My regular season MVP "vote" went to Kawhi, and the playoffs have supported that position.

This is just so clearly the right answer to me, and I realize it is subjective, but... everybody is just like 'Westy and Harden'.

DPOY and 61 wins while being the first option on offense, posting higher efficiency than both Harden and Westy with respect to FT, 3pt and 2pt percentages.

I mean... each were the lone all-star on their team this year, and put up impressive personal stats, and while Leonard's per-game averages were not as seemingly outstanding, his defense is far and away superior to either Harden or Westy, and his team won more games than either of them. I'd rather have a guy who scored 25 with higher percentages than a guy who scores 30 on lower percentages and also need a couple extra possessions to get there with foul calls. I mean... Harden and Westy are amazing, but in a comparison of the three... there is no question in my mind.

I just don't see the debate beyond "Yeah, but triple-double". Which to me, isn't an argument.

mrblisterdundee
04-26-2017, 11:13 AM
If you look for playoffs MVP it's pretty much always LeBron, just like it was pretty much always Jordan. LeBron coasting through portions of the regular season rules him out for that award because we can see now what a fully engaged LeBron looks like.

My regular season MVP "vote" went to Kawhi, and the playoffs have supported that position.

His numbers in the playoffs are somewhat inflated based on his huge workload, but LeBron's still been the most dominant player in the playoffs, when you take matchups into consideration. He's dominated George, who's probably the fourth- to sixth-best forward to make the playoffs after LeBron, Kawhi, Durant and possibly Giannis and Green.
Kawhi's been the most hyper-efficient 39.2 PER, 52.6 percent from three, 100 percent on 9.8 free throws per game but that would be a different story if someone like Allen or George was out there guarding him. I'm not saying he wouldn't play well, but he wouldn't be nearly as efficient.And it's only going to get easier for Kawhi next round, when he harasses Harden and torches Ariza.

FlashBolt
04-26-2017, 11:16 AM
I think the negatives hurting Kawhi are:

1) Spurs were 7-1 without Kawhi. I don't know the scenarios for each game but that's still a damn good record.
2) Someone mentioned this but Spurs actually had a better rating defensively with Kawhi on the bench. I'm not saying that means Kawhi is a bad defender but it's a stat out there.
3) Relative to what Kawhi is playing with, Russ just doesn't have much there. His triple double is correlated with us winning. When he gets more rebounds/assists, we do better. So there might be a few stat-stuffing numbers involved but generally, we need him to play that way to win games.
That's all I can find. I like Kawhi but I think the duty for every player has been different -- especially for Russ.
I'm starting to also realize that this Rockets team is being blown out of proportion. The way I see it, they are a loaded offensive roster with a system that can beat many teams. With or without Harden, they can score.

lol, please
04-26-2017, 11:27 AM
The MVP is a regular season award, but it's hard not to look at the entire season, playoffs included, when determining who actually is the most valuable player to his team.

That said, I realize regular season MVP should only factor in the regular season, and indeed, the votes are cast before the playoffs even start, but that said... how would the post-season impact who you vote for were you casting a ballot after the post-season?

With the Thunder eliminated in the first round, having only earned a single victory in the playoffs, would Westbrook still warrant a vote near the top of the list? I mean... how valuable can one guy be if all he got you was a single win in the post-season?

Would the performance James just pounded home in a four-game sweep of the Pacers make him a little more deserving?


Should the entirety of the playoffs be weighed in? Especially now given that the award won't be handed out until after the playoffs?

No, it shouldn't, more than anything because I am a person who values consistency and does not support change for the sake of it. It's a regular season award, just because you find it "hard" to ignore the playoffs when thinking about candidates, doesn't mean the rule should be changed because you personally find it difficult to accept.

Thus, since it's been a regular season award for as long as I remember, I never consider the playoff performances of candidates. If the playoffs were included, would it sway my vote? No. The playoffs in their entirety are too small of a sample size to make a difference. There's also another problem - in the regular season, there is a set amount of games, in the playoffs, it's too complicated and inconsistent to try and measure a guy who goes on a tear for 7 games but gets bounced in the first round with a guy who doesn't show up in the first round but plays well up through the WCF, and so on and so forth.

FlashBolt
04-26-2017, 11:48 AM
Playoffs may be a small sample size but it's also the most IMPORTANT sample size. I can't for the life understand why the guy who has the highest USG% and opportunity to jack shots should be MVP but going by those guidelines, it's Westbrook who should be MVP. LeBron has been the MVP for nearly a decade now. Sorry, but it's true. If we're specifically talking about value and how one player can provide you the best results for an entire season, it's LeBron.

Scoots
04-26-2017, 12:02 PM
His numbers in the playoffs are somewhat inflated based on his huge workload, but LeBron's still been the most dominant player in the playoffs, when you take matchups into consideration. He's dominated George, who's probably the fourth- to sixth-best forward to make the playoffs after LeBron, Kawhi, Durant and possibly Giannis and Green.
Kawhi's been the most hyper-efficient 39.2 PER, 52.6 percent from three, 100 percent on 9.8 free throws per game but that would be a different story if someone like Allen or George was out there guarding him. I'm not saying he wouldn't play well, but he wouldn't be nearly as efficient.And it's only going to get easier for Kawhi next round, when he harasses Harden and torches Ariza.

I was assuming you were arguing with me because you quoted me ... but I think we agree. I said playoff MVP is LeBron, regular season is Kawhi. Although if your point is Kawhi could be playoff MVP too ... he will be if he can win a title.

Scoots
04-26-2017, 12:05 PM
2) Someone mentioned this but Spurs actually had a better rating defensively with Kawhi on the bench. I'm not saying that means Kawhi is a bad defender but it's a stat out there.


That is an odd one. It turns out opponents even shoot FTs MUCH better with Kawhi on than off. It can't all be luck, but there is definitely some strangeness with those on/off numbers because no way is the Spurs real D better without Kawhi.

FlashBolt
04-26-2017, 03:19 PM
That is an odd one. It turns out opponents even shoot FTs MUCH better with Kawhi on than off. It can't all be luck, but there is definitely some strangeness with those on/off numbers because no way is the Spurs real D better without Kawhi.

I saw an explanation that said kawhis defense is so great that they avoid passing the ball to the player kawhi guards in the hope that kawhi would just leave everyone else alone. It's definitely weird. I hope kdspurs can chime in on that because there is definitely zero chance kawhi hurts a team defensively.

mrblisterdundee
04-26-2017, 05:29 PM
I was assuming you were arguing with me because you quoted me ... but I think we agree. I said playoff MVP is LeBron, regular season is Kawhi. Although if your point is Kawhi could be playoff MVP too ... he will be if he can win a title.

I should have been clear that I think the playoffs should be the primary factor in the MVP, DPOY, Sixth Man and other awards. They should almost always go to players who at least has a competitive second-round playoff series.
LeBron coasting a bit during the regular season to rest up for domination in the playoffs shouldn't ding him in the MVP race. He's faced stiffer competition in the playoffs than Leonard going up against the Allen-less Grizzlies, but has dominated the Pacers more than Kawhi has Memphis. I don't think you can understate the importance of no Allen in Kawhi's hyper-efficiency.

lol, please
04-26-2017, 11:16 PM
Playoffs may be a small sample size but it's also the most IMPORTANT sample size. I can't for the life understand why the guy who has the highest USG% and opportunity to jack shots should be MVP but going by those guidelines, it's Westbrook who should be MVP. LeBron has been the MVP for nearly a decade now. Sorry, but it's true. If we're specifically talking about value and how one player can provide you the best results for an entire season, it's LeBron.

Curry surpassed Lebron several seasons ago.

I do agree about it being a more important sample size, but it won't outweigh over 80 games.

JasonJohnHorn
04-26-2017, 11:49 PM
That is an odd one. It turns out opponents even shoot FTs MUCH better with Kawhi on than off. It can't all be luck, but there is definitely some strangeness with those on/off numbers because no way is the Spurs real D better without Kawhi.

A lot of teams have been plotting offense around Leonard. For example, I believe it was when they played the Bulls, they gave the ball to Wade instead of Butter because Leonard guard Butler. So he shut down his man, but Wade got hot. When they switch Leonard onto Wade, they ran plays through Butler again.

This is why raw stats (as I am aware you know based on your previous posts) can be misleading. If the guy Leonard is guarding isn't being given shots, his defense is having a more nuanced impact: taking the ball away from their go-to guy and relying on a lesser player. However, it may make it seem like the defensive rating is better when he's off the court, because the best defense player will be put on the best offensive player when Leonard is resting.

Another thing to consider: Pop often puts stronger defenders on the floor when Leonard is pulled off to compensate, so the team defense may be better, but Leonard may still be carrying the load when he's on the court with a slightly weaker defensive team. For instance, LMA has never been know for his defense, nor has Lee. I often see Leonard on the court with them. Gasol is often on the court when Leonard is pulled off, and he's likely the team's best post defender, which is a more critical defensive position than a wing player.

There are a few things at play here.

FlashBolt
04-27-2017, 12:32 AM
Curry surpassed Lebron several seasons ago.

I do agree about it being a more important sample size, but it won't outweigh over 80 games.

I say it all the time but I'm going to actually do it and put you on ignore Don't know why you feel it's cool to troll but I won't be feeding you.

kdspurman
04-27-2017, 02:15 PM
I saw an explanation that said kawhis defense is so great that they avoid passing the ball to the player kawhi guards in the hope that kawhi would just leave everyone else alone. It's definitely weird. I hope kdspurs can chime in on that because there is definitely zero chance kawhi hurts a team defensively.

Ball denial is a big part of his defensive genius. The other thing that some teams did was pull Kawhi's man far away from the basket and essentially play 4 on 4, and put him in a position where he can't really help. It's such a tricky stat, but the overall defense early on was not great either, with Pau starting and Green missing some time. And to be honest, he didn't start out as dominant on that end with him having more responsibility offensively, but a couple months in, things started to normalize a bit.

I saw this tweet, and it really just shows how he still gets it done. This is obviously a small sample size, but it's against some of the best scorers we have. I'm sure it can be expanded to other opponents, and still show the impact he has on that end.

851103596343164928

So when I see stats that show the Spurs are better defensively w/Kawhi off the court, I know that's where context matter and it's one of those situations to not blindly accept it.