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nysportsfan23
04-11-2017, 08:48 PM
Just wondering how some teams are going to make their salary cap situations work.

How are the clippers going to pay Paul/Griffin/Jordan/Reddick/Moute? Wouldn't that essentially be the same team as now, with zero flexibility and probably the loss of some lesser pieces, what is that next year 7th in west?

Celtics if they draft Fultz will have him, Bradley, isiah, smart, horford, etc causing a cap crunch next offseason, how does that work?

Portland is a capped to the moon team that is the wests 8 seed, how do they make any changes if necessary?

If the cavaliers fall short, who do they move, considering they are capped out?

Finally Golden State, who is renounced after Durant/Curry sign maxes? And how does that impact a title defense if they win.

Seems like change is coming. Not hating, I'm a Knicks fan, would rather these problems. We have Joakim Noah.

warfelg
04-11-2017, 09:07 PM
Just wondering how some teams are going to make their salary cap situations work.

How are the clippers going to pay Paul/Griffin/Jordan/Reddick/Moute? Wouldn't that essentially be the same team as now, with zero flexibility and probably the loss of some lesser pieces, what is that next year 7th in west?

They'll without a doubt lose Reddick. Moute might stay for the MMLE. Griffin extends this year. CP3 is the wildcard. Blake should sign for 1 and see what CP3 does.


Celtics if they draft Fultz will have him, Bradley, isiah, smart, horford, etc causing a cap crunch next offseason, how does that work?

This might be one of the easier ones. If they draft Fultz/Ball/Smith JR; extend Bradley, Trade Isaiah, Trade Smart, Trade Crowder. Possibly all three together with the Nets swap for Butler. Then you have the cap to find a PF. Fultz/Ball/Smith-Bradley-Butler-FA PF-Horford.


Portland is a capped to the moon team that is the wests 8 seed, how do they make any changes if necessary?

Give up picks with Turner and Crabbe to open up cap. Best off finding one stupid team that might take them (cough NO cough)(cough Sacramento cough). That's best hope. The worst case is having to trade CJ or Lillard for a kings ransom.


If the cavaliers fall short, who do they move, considering they are capped out?

Hope JR is able to be dumped. In reality they need to find a way to move Love for some assets. They spent too much on TT/Love, and they let TT and JR hold them hostage over wanting to keep the team together. They should have really played a hard line with JR this year.


Finally Golden State, who is renounced after Durant/Curry sign maxes? And how does that impact a title defense if they win.

Lose Iggy, Zaza, and Livingston. Keeping those 4 is going to really hurt them since they haven't exactly drafted great since then. They should really take the best deal they can for Klay to open up space through cheap contracts and picks.


Seems like change is coming. Not hating, I'm a Knicks fan, would rather these problems. We have Joakim Noah.

Agreed that change is coming.

TheMightyHumph
04-11-2017, 09:24 PM
Just wondering how some teams are going to make their salary cap situations work.

How are the clippers going to pay Paul/Griffin/Jordan/Reddick/Moute? Wouldn't that essentially be the same team as now, with zero flexibility and probably the loss of some lesser pieces, what is that next year 7th in west?

Celtics if they draft Fultz will have him, Bradley, isiah, smart, horford, etc causing a cap crunch next offseason, how does that work?

Portland is a capped to the moon team that is the wests 8 seed, how do they make any changes if necessary?

If the cavaliers fall short, who do they move, considering they are capped out?

Finally Golden State, who is renounced after Durant/Curry sign maxes? And how does that impact a title defense if they win.

Seems like change is coming. Not hating, I'm a Knicks fan, would rather these problems. We have Joakim Noah.

After reading your post, you've worried me about the situations of these unbelievably under pressure owners that can't afford to pay a luxury tax, as they have children to feed.

Not sure I'll be able to sleep well tonight, as I will be considering these poor abused owners plights.

TrueFan420
04-11-2017, 09:53 PM
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Lose Iggy, Zaza, and Livingston. Keeping those 4 is going to really hurt them since they haven't exactly drafted great since then. They should really take the best deal they can for Klay to open up space through cheap contracts and picks.

Yes they will renounce Iggy and Shaun. Zaza is on a 1 year deal and will either walk or come back for vet min. Iggy prob comes back on a 1 year vet while Shaun walks for a pay day. But even if they all walk we won't deal Klay. Ownership said they don't care about cap. They'll keep the team together. Only thing to break up the 4 will be if Klay wants to be a go to first option. He doesn't strike me as the type to mess with a good thing. We will go over the cap to keep the team together. Comes down to if the 4 want to finish together.

Scoots
04-11-2017, 10:01 PM
Yes they will renounce Iggy and Shaun. Zaza is on a 1 year deal and will either walk or come back for vet min. Iggy prob comes back on a 1 year vet while Shaun walks for a pay day. But even if they all walk we won't deal Klay. Ownership said they don't care about cap. They'll keep the team together. Only thing to break up the 4 will be if Klay wants to be a go to first option. He doesn't strike me as the type to mess with a good thing. We will go over the cap to keep the team together. Comes down to if the 4 want to finish together.

Iguodala said on the radio that he and Myers have talked and he fully expects to be back. So that's either the vet min or the MLE. Of course it would be nice to have the MLE for someone else, if that's what he wants I'd probably pay it.

da ThRONe
04-11-2017, 10:08 PM
This is what a salary cap is supposed to do create balance within the teams. Some teams again are just smarter about how they use their cap. If more GM's actually made brighter decisions the wealth would spread even faster. Some executives just can't help themselves when given cap space.

IndyRealist
04-11-2017, 10:16 PM
After reading your post, you've worried me about the situations of these unbelievably under pressure owners that can't afford to pay a luxury tax, as they have children to feed.

Not sure I'll be able to sleep well tonight, as I will be considering these poor abused owners plights.

I don't think the post is about profitability, it's about being able to improve their teams.

Scoots
04-11-2017, 10:29 PM
They'll without a doubt lose Reddick. Moute might stay for the MMLE. Griffin extends this year. CP3 is the wildcard. Blake should sign for 1 and see what CP3 does.

They can pay Reddick, Griffin, and CP3 more than anyone else can ... my guess is they do that and use the MLE and vet minimums to try to make something happen. What they should do is fire Rivers the day after they are out of the playoffs.


This might be one of the easier ones. If they draft Fultz/Ball/Smith JR; extend Bradley, Trade Isaiah, Trade Smart, Trade Crowder. Possibly all three together with the Nets swap for Butler. Then you have the cap to find a PF. Fultz/Ball/Smith-Bradley-Butler-FA PF-Horford.

Ainge talks a good game, but I can't see him pulling off that trade, or anything close to it.


Give up picks with Turner and Crabbe to open up cap. Best off finding one stupid team that might take them (cough NO cough)(cough Sacramento cough). That's best hope. The worst case is having to trade CJ or Lillard for a kings ransom.

My guess is they essentially stand pat too. Expect young guys to improve.


Hope JR is able to be dumped. In reality they need to find a way to move Love for some assets. They spent too much on TT/Love, and they let TT and JR hold them hostage over wanting to keep the team together. They should have really played a hard line with JR this year.

Will anybody trade for their assets? I think the team stays pretty much the same next year except the vet minimum players rotate.


Lose Iggy, Zaza, and Livingston. Keeping those 4 is going to really hurt them since they haven't exactly drafted great since then. They should really take the best deal they can for Klay to open up space through cheap contracts and picks.

Iguodala implied he's coming back ... probably for part if not all of the MLE. "haven't exactly drafted great" ... so they traded away the 2013 and 2014 picks in a really stupid deal from 2009 and in the deal to get Iguodala which paid off with a title in Kerr's first year. Since then they've had 2 30th picks in the draft and picked one guy who can't stay healthy and a guy who was DL player of the month as a rookie this year. For the picks they've had they've done a pretty good job. In the same time they acquired and developed Ian Clark, James McAdoo, and most importantly Patrick McCaw (they also traded or lost Justin Holiday and Kent Bazemore). Zaza can go, and Livingston probably will choose to take the money but he may come back, McGee may come back (he said he wants to), and West may retire or come back, and McAdoo and Clark may leave ...

So,
Curry/McCaw
Thompson/??? (Clark/Holiday?)
Durant/Iguodala
Green/Looney (McAdoo?)
West/McGee/Jones

That seems very workable to me to challenge for another title.



I wonder what the:

Jazz are going to do with Hayward, Hill, and Ingles.

Pistons are going to do with KCP? Max?

Raptors are going to do with Lowry and Ibaka

Grizzlies are going to do with Randolph (would anyone else want him in today's NBA?) and JaMychal Green. Is this the end for Tony Allen and Vince Carter?

Pelicans are going to do with Jrue Holiday

Heat are going to do with Waiters

Hawks are going to do with Milsap

Quinnsanity
04-12-2017, 01:08 AM
I wonder what the:

Jazz are going to do with Hayward, Hill, and Ingles.

Pistons are going to do with KCP? Max?

Raptors are going to do with Lowry and Ibaka

Grizzlies are going to do with Randolph (would anyone else want him in today's NBA?) and JaMychal Green. Is this the end for Tony Allen and Vince Carter?

Pelicans are going to do with Jrue Holiday

Heat are going to do with Waiters

Hawks are going to do with Milsap

You and War did the original list of teams pretty thoroughly, so I'll go through your list and do those teams, then present a few of my own:


Jazz are going to do with Hayward, Hill, and Ingles.

Utah is currently $40 million under the projected tax line ($122 million is my current projection but it's fluid) and Hayward is in all likelihood going to have a Year 1 salary of just over $30 million. The Jazz are not paying the tax. It's an absolute non-starter for that market. So if they want to retain George Hill, they will likely have to find a way to clear around $10 million. There are a number of ways they could go about that. A Derrick Favors trade for a draft pick (and he'd net a pretty decent one) clears the money. Joe Johnson and/or Alec Burks would be harder to trade, but if absolutely necessary, the stretch provision (which pays players the total value of their contracts over 2x+1 the number of years left) on both would free around 3.5 million on Johnson and around $6 million on Burks, which also gets them to that same basic point. My best guess would be either a Favors trade, or using Dante Exum as bait to get someone to take Johnson or Burks. This also assumes that Boris Diaw's team-option is declined. Joe Ingles will leave unless Hayward does.


Pistons are going to do with KCP? Max?

Detroit's situation is predicted largely on Aron Baynes. If he accepts his player option, Detroit has over $95 million committed and a KCP max takes them essentially to the cap (considering they'll have a lottery pick to pay). Would ownership accept the tax on a non-playoff team? If Baynes declines his player option, a KCP max would be workable. We know KCP is getting a max offer. Brooklyn is going to make it, this has been reported widely. But whether or not Detroit can accept will be based largely on that Baynes option, or their ability to trade someone else. Of course, we've heard rumors about how unhappy Stan Van Gundy is with this roster. He might just blow it up.


Raptors are going to do with Lowry and Ibaka

I wrote extensively about the Raptors cap situation here (http://thesportspost.com/nba-raptors-5-step-savings-plan/). The short answer is that if we make the two assumptions that the Raptors are honest in their intent to re-sign both Ibaka and Lowry and that Raptors will aim to stay below the projected luxury tax line, here are the moves I project they would make: trade DeMarre Carroll with a first round pick attached to a team with cap space (likely Brooklyn or Philly), give away Jonas Valanciunas, Cory Joseph, Paskal Siakam and Bebe Nogueira for free and stash their first round pick in Europe. That would give them a roster just below the tax line (with my projected contract numbers which are obviously imperfect) of Lowry, DeRozan, Tucker, Ibaka, Patterson, Powell, Wright and Poeltl with minimum slots/second round pick salaries filling out the rest of the roster.


Grizzlies are going to do with Randolph (would anyone else want him in today's NBA?) and JaMychal Green. Is this the end for Tony Allen and Vince Carter?

Aside from the total dollar values, there's also a very real order of operations concern in Memphis. If the Grizzlies wanted to, they could actually operate as a below-the-cap team by stretching Chandler Parsons. That would save them something like $12-13 million in immediate cap space, putting them at around $20 million in space overall if they renounced everyone else. That space would disappear the moment JaMychal Green signed because his minuscule cap hold (190% of $980,000) would be replaced by an actual contract. But if they signed a free agent first, they could keep Green as well with no real cap limitations (so long as his deal didn't launch them past the tax line). Would you rather retain the rights on ZBo, Allen and VC, or go for a free agent in the $20 million range (JJ Redick comes to mind) and hope you can use loyalty to convince one or some of those guys to take the minimum and/or BAE to come back? It's a tough call, especially since it means spending $70 million+ in real money to make Parsons go away. If the Grizzlies chose to simply bring everyone back and do nothing with Parsons, they have around $30 million with which to operate below the tax (which I'd think gets at least three out of the four back, if not all of them). If they attached picks to Parsons to convince someone to take him, they would be able to create max space.


Pelicans are going to do with Jrue Holiday

Pelicans will max Jrue out. They have no other recourse. They're looking at around $12 million in cap space this summer pre-Holiday contract, not close to enough to attract even George Hill much less the max guys. They can pay Holiday up to his max no questions asked, but to pay a free agent the same they'd have to stretch Solomon Hill, Omer Asik AND Etwaun Moore, or trade two of them (or one of them plus Alexis Ajinca). So they're basically stuck. Holiday has all of the leverage, and once they sign Boogie to his extension next summer (if he even stays) they'll be in the tax in virtual perpetuity. The lesson here is the be more careful with your contracts. New Orleans has almost $40 million dedicated to the four players listed above and Quincy Pondexter next season. If those contracts didn't exist they could fill both of their wing spots long term or maybe bring in a max guy to play with Boogie and Davis, who are both below market value right now. But those bad deals prevent them from taking advantage of the great value they're getting on their top two. So get ready for a horrible Jrue contract.


Heat are going to do with Waiters

I would bet my life on Waiters being gone. Miami will at least meet with whatever superstar free agent seriously considers leaving. I don't know who it will be, but of Curry, Durant, Paul, Griffin, Lowry and Hayward I imagine at least one plays the field a bit. Superstars take time to make their decisions. Players in Waiters' class sign the highest offer they get. It's just going to be a matter of timing, and frankly, 2018 is the first year Miami has real incentive to tank. They lose their pick to Phoenix if it falls outside of the top seven. The Heat may be satisfied with mediocrity this season, but it's fair to assume based on their franchise history that they won't be for long. My guess is that they tank next year to keep that pick and then surrender their unprotected 2019 pick to Phoenix after they've spent money in the 2018 offseason.


Hawks are going to do with Millsap

The Al Horford situation is instructive here. Atlanta was willing to give him five years, or they were willing to give him a four-year max, but they would not give him both five years and the max. Despite the Hawks offering him the most total money (and the highest AAV), Horford was so insulted by their refusal to give him the whole max that he left. You know who else Atlanta has insulted? Millsap, through constant trade rumors. He might be out the door already, but in order to keep him, I think we can reasonably say that Atlanta will have to do what they wouldn't with Horford last year and give him the full five-year max. I have serious doubts that they'll be willing to do that just knowing how they operate as a franchise. I expect Millsap to leave for that reason.

There are two really interesting teams cap-wise that nobody has mentioned yet, and they're interesting for the same reasons: Philly and Minnesota.

Minnesota has Towns, Wiggins and LaVine contracts upcoming, the latter two being eligible this offseason. This will be their last summer with meaningful cap space, but they'll have max cap space. Do they play with fire and offer someone a big contract to be an actual part of their long term core? Just to spit ball some names, Nikola Mirotic would be a nice stretch-4 for them and Thibs has coached him before, or they'd be a prime candidate for a restricted free agent (Otto Porter makes sense if Minnesota is willing to go smaller). Will Minnesota put themselves in long-term tax trouble to add an impact piece now (and realistically this is at least two years away from coming to fruition)? Or will they be frugal?

Philly is in the same boat. Embiid is up for his extension now (though he'll probably sign next summer as an RFA) and the rest of the young guys are coming. They aren't in as much of a hurry as Minnesota, but we've all heard the Kyle Lowry rumors. Would Colangelo, who traded for him in Toronto, max him out knowing that the back end of that contract will unequivocally look bad (especially since by then Simmons, Embiid and Saric at least will be on second contracts)?

Do either of those teams get creative with their cap space and take on someone else's problem? Philly's timeline matches up perfectly to accept Chandler Parsons without even needing to space him (same goes for Evan Turner or Joakim Noah). Minnesota could do that on a shorter deal. I'm just really curious to see how these teams treat their cap space, because right now, it's an actual asset for them. It won't be forever, and it's very much an "if you don't use it, you lose it" situation. I do think Philly pays a veteran point guard, and I think Minnesota signs a free agent they're confident they can flip if necessary (or get someone on a short enough deal it won't matter). But those are the two big wild cards in my eyes.

warfelg
04-12-2017, 08:08 AM
There are two really interesting teams cap-wise that nobody has mentioned yet, and they're interesting for the same reasons: Philly and Minnesota.

Philly is in the same boat. Embiid is up for his extension now (though he'll probably sign next summer as an RFA) and the rest of the young guys are coming. They aren't in as much of a hurry as Minnesota, but we've all heard the Kyle Lowry rumors. Would Colangelo, who traded for him in Toronto, max him out knowing that the back end of that contract will unequivocally look bad (especially since by then Simmons, Embiid and Saric at least will be on second contracts)?

Do either of those teams get creative with their cap space and take on someone else's problem? Philly's timeline matches up perfectly to accept Chandler Parsons without even needing to space him (same goes for Evan Turner or Joakim Noah). Minnesota could do that on a shorter deal. I'm just really curious to see how these teams treat their cap space, because right now, it's an actual asset for them. It won't be forever, and it's very much an "if you don't use it, you lose it" situation. I do think Philly pays a veteran point guard, and I think Minnesota signs a free agent they're confident they can flip if necessary (or get someone on a short enough deal it won't matter). But those are the two big wild cards in my eyes.

Our situation is easy:

~ Turn down the option on Gerald Henderson
~ Let Sergio walk.
~ Pick up options on Holmes, RoCo, TJ McConnell

That would leave us close to $80mil in cap space.

Right now offer Embiid a 4 year $60-70 mil deal, basically a modern cap size version of the contract Curry got. If he says he rather bet on his health, then we match any offer in RFA.

So that's only taking about $17-18 mil of the cap. Still have $62 mil to spend.

Max out one of Jrue Holiday, Kyle Lowry, Gordon Hayward. Any one of those three would fit perfectly and we still have $30ish mil to spend. Plus our high pick, potential of LAL high pick, a boatload of 2nds.

So (health dependent) we could have locked up with cap space to spare:
Embiid, Simmons, Saric, Lowry/Holiday/Hayward, TLC, Rookie 1, Rookie 2 (potentially)

Then you count on the cap still going up some, ability to sign over the cap to keep your players (Simmons, Saric, RoCo), incoming 2019 unprotected Kings pick, some overseas assets.

I think you tried to make it sound a little more tough than it really is.

da ThRONe
04-12-2017, 08:16 AM
Our situation is easy:

~ Turn down the option on Gerald Henderson
~ Let Sergio walk.
~ Pick up options on Holmes, RoCo, TJ McConnell

That would leave us close to $80mil in cap space.

Right now offer Embiid a 4 year $60-70 mil deal, basically a modern cap size version of the contract Curry got. If he says he rather bet on his health, then we match any offer in RFA.

So that's only taking about $17-18 mil of the cap. Still have $62 mil to spend.

Max out one of Jrue Holiday, Kyle Lowry, Gordon Hayward. Any one of those three would fit perfectly and we still have $30ish mil to spend. Plus our high pick, potential of LAL high pick, a boatload of 2nds.

So (health dependent) we could have locked up with cap space to spare:
Embiid, Simmons, Saric, Lowry/Holiday/Hayward, TLC, Rookie 1, Rookie 2 (potentially)

Then you count on the cap still going up some, ability to sign over the cap to keep your players (Simmons, Saric, RoCo), incoming 2019 unprotected Kings pick, some overseas assets.

I think you tried to make it sound a little more tough than it really is.

Maxing Lowry out isn't a good idea he's already over 30. Nobody should give Holiday a max. Haward on the other hand makes sense. But honestly I'd hold tight and continue to trust the process of developing the talent already on the roster.

warfelg
04-12-2017, 08:18 AM
Maxing Lowry out isn't a good idea he's already over 30. Nobody should give Holiday a max. Haward on the other hand makes sense. But honestly I'd hold tight and continue to trust the process of developing the talent already on the roster.

We would have to max any of those guys to get them to come. We have to overpay.

da ThRONe
04-12-2017, 09:20 AM
We would have to max any of those guys to get them to come. We have to overpay.

That's why my personal philosophy is to just wait and cultivate the talent you already have. All those guys are in the same time line and depending on who Philly can get this year as many as 3 may be projected as franchise changing talents.

Scoots
04-12-2017, 09:26 AM
You and War did the original list of teams pretty thoroughly, so I'll go through your list and do those teams, then present a few of my own: <sniiiiiiiiiiiip>

Excellent post! Thanks.

I wonder if teams will be even more shy of the tax now that the cap isn't going up as much as they hoped. The new TV deal is a 9 year deal but there isn't any new big source of revenue on the horizon to increase those numbers. I think that is part of why the league is talking about advertising on jerseys.

The Jazz might be willing to flirt with the tax with their position as the best up and coming team in the west. Favors has a lot of injury history to net a high draft pick AND a big new contract, so while the Jazz may find a trade partner, I suspect they would not get much in return.

The 4 players you have the Raps throwing away seem like they would draw more trade interest than "nothing".

On the Grizz ... if Reddick moved to Memphis the Clippers would essentially HAVE to blow up their team. I get the impression the Grizzlies are just going to keep trying to have a decent team around Conley and Gasol while staying under the tax, so the question is indeed Parsons and Green and how they are valued by the team.

Waiters should take less to stay in Miami, but he's probably not smart enough to do that. I don't think Miami tanks, but it's not impossible.

Scoots
04-12-2017, 09:44 AM
Philly doesn't have contract problems, they have talent problems.

The Sixers can stay in The Process and add some mid-grade guards to help them out.

Darren Collison, Patty Mills, Justin Holiday, CJ Miles ... guys who are just in their primes but not max players, and are solid teammates with decent all-around guard games.

warfelg
04-12-2017, 09:48 AM
Philly doesn't have contract problems, they have talent problems.

The Sixers can stay in The Process and add some mid-grade guards to help them out.

Darren Collison, Patty Mills, Justin Holiday, CJ Miles ... guys who are just in their primes but not max players, and are solid teammates with decent all-around guard games.

Mills and Holiday are the 2 best to bring in.

Still to think to have cap space for more moves, assets for more trades, and be starting:
Simmons-Mills/Holiday/Lowry-RoCo-Saric-Embiid
with Draft pick 1, Draft pick 2 (potentially), TLC, Stauce, McConnell on the bench.

That's scary for the east.

tp13baby
04-12-2017, 10:10 AM
Denver will also be a team with a ton of cap space. We could easily max someone, but who do we go out and get? Malone wants defenders and a rim protector with Jokic.

Gallo should be gone.

Scoots
04-12-2017, 12:38 PM
Mills and Holiday are the 2 best to bring in.

Still to think to have cap space for more moves, assets for more trades, and be starting:
Simmons-Mills/Holiday/Lowry-RoCo-Saric-Embiid
with Draft pick 1, Draft pick 2 (potentially), TLC, Stauce, McConnell on the bench.

That's scary for the east.

True, but still need some things to come together.

I think Darren Collison is under-rated, and Mills is probably a little over-rated ... but that Spurs heritage.

warfelg
04-12-2017, 12:46 PM
True, but still need some things to come together.

I think Darren Collison is under-rated, and Mills is probably a little over-rated ... but that Spurs heritage.

Some, but not as many as most think. The biggest thing coming together is these next 2 drafts.

Edit:
On Collison vs Mills. I rather have Mills because of the Spurs lineage and that Brown worked with him. And the other thing I like more is Collison sometimes comes off like he thinks he's a star player and wants to be the guy. Mills is ok with being a role player.

Oh and Mills and Simmons are Australian Bros.

TrueFan420
04-12-2017, 12:52 PM
Iguodala said on the radio that he and Myers have talked and he fully expects to be back. So that's either the vet min or the MLE. Of course it would be nice to have the MLE for someone else, if that's what he wants I'd probably pay it.
Man I hope it's vet min. I'd rather the MLE go to Shaun or a younger player. I love Iggy but he's getting up there and is much more inconsistent than he use to be. He's still a valuable piece for the bench but not at the full or even half of the MLE.

Scoots
04-12-2017, 04:42 PM
Some, but not as many as most think. The biggest thing coming together is these next 2 drafts.

I would think health and trading Okafor would be 1 and 2 ... or maybe 1 and 3.

warfelg
04-12-2017, 05:05 PM
I would think health and trading Okafor would be 1 and 2 ... or maybe 1 and 3.

Okafor is untradable I think.

Isn't good. Net negative with him on the court. Missed the end of last year with torn meniscus. Twice shut down this year because of the same knee. Missed large chunks of times outside of that because of that same knee.

I can't think of any team willing to take that risk.

Quinnsanity
04-12-2017, 05:32 PM
Our situation is easy:

~ Turn down the option on Gerald Henderson
~ Let Sergio walk.
~ Pick up options on Holmes, RoCo, TJ McConnell

That would leave us close to $80mil in cap space.

Right now offer Embiid a 4 year $60-70 mil deal, basically a modern cap size version of the contract Curry got. If he says he rather bet on his health, then we match any offer in RFA.

So that's only taking about $17-18 mil of the cap. Still have $62 mil to spend.

Max out one of Jrue Holiday, Kyle Lowry, Gordon Hayward. Any one of those three would fit perfectly and we still have $30ish mil to spend. Plus our high pick, potential of LAL high pick, a boatload of 2nds.

So (health dependent) we could have locked up with cap space to spare:
Embiid, Simmons, Saric, Lowry/Holiday/Hayward, TLC, Rookie 1, Rookie 2 (potentially)

Then you count on the cap still going up some, ability to sign over the cap to keep your players (Simmons, Saric, RoCo), incoming 2019 unprotected Kings pick, some overseas assets.

I think you tried to make it sound a little more tough than it really is.

Not sure where you're getting the $80 million number. We're assuming a $101 million cap and Bayless, Simmons and Embiid take them to around $20 million alone. When you factor in the other players they have signed that takes it up to $35 million, and if we assume they're picking fourth and fifth (get the Lakers pick, don't jump up) that's another $7 million or. Let's take the total up to $45 million with minimum cap holds. That's $56 million in cap space. Still a ton obviously, but $80 million is a stretch.

I think you're being incredibly naive on an Embiid extension though. He will absolutely, unequivocally get a max offer sheet. He could miss all of next season and that wouldn't be in doubt. You think Orlando or Brooklyn wouldn't max him out? They're desperate. Realistically you're looking at Embiid getting a year-one salary of $25 million or so.

Let's play that out over the long term assuming you do get a max guy this summer (I'm saying Lowry, as Hayward will not even take that meeting and Holiday will be maxed out by New Orleans). Next year would be totally fine. So would the year after that.

But let's talk 2019-20. By then, Embiid is up to the high 20's (I'm too lazy to do the math, let's say $29 million). Lowry is in Year 3 of what is presumably a max contract that starts at around $35 million (35% of a $101 million cap). Those two combined around to be making around $70 million alone. With no expected rises in the cap (you can't argue they're coming without a revenue stream to support it), that likely means the rest of the roster will have to be fairly cheap. They'll still have Saric, Simmons, both 2017 picks, their 2018 pick and their 2019 picks on rookie scale contracts, so that's going to be ok.

But Simmons gets a max (if he's the player we think he'll be) prior to 2020-21. Even with everyone else on rookie scale contracts, that probably pushes Philly into the tax. That Lowry contract is going to be horrific by that point, and there won't really be any cap relief because any money they save after he expires will immediately go to extending the young guys (unless they want to circumvent the rules as the Spurs did with Kawhi and Detroit did with Drummond through some order of operations shenanigans, but that creates a major financial burden down the line. How far into the tax will Harris go to fund a winner?)

So it's not as optimistic as you think it is. They still have a ton of flexibility and if they want to sign a max player this offseason or really in any upcoming offseason they should be able to. But it's going to create tax problems down the line unless every draft pick winds up sucking.

Btw, forget who originally said it, but love the Patty Mills fit in Philly. A bit old for what they should be looking for and doesn't come with the Lowry credibility, but he's such a perfect fit stylistically.


Denver will also be a team with a ton of cap space. We could easily max someone, but who do we go out and get? Malone wants defenders and a rim protector with Jokic.

Gallo should be gone.

Millsap is the guy everyone talks about, but I love Derrick Favors as Denver's partner for Jokic. Great defender and rebounder, good low-post scorer, very low maintenance and is still only 25 (compared to Millsap who's better, but already 31). I think Favors could be for Denver what David West was for Indiana. I certainly think the No. 14 pick would get him in a trade, or if not, perhaps a future pick. As I said earlier, Utah is probably going to be pretty eager to trade Favors if they want to keep Hayward and Hill.

warfelg
04-12-2017, 05:45 PM
Harris has said in the past that he will pay what it takes to win a championship. So the Tax isn't a problem.

I was a little off in the numbers but we still have massive space left. I fully expect Okafor gone for peanuts so that's taking $5 mil off our books. Picking up the 3 I talked about only adds $3 mil to the cap.

Your trying to hard to make it sound like we're in a dire situation. FWIW, 2019 Bayless comes off the books. After next year Staus's contract is to the QO. Luwawu is cheap and productive. I doubt Andersons contract is picked up much longer. We got Sac's 2019 unprotected pick coming.

Dario and Simmons are under team control until 2021. The rookies in 2017 are cheap until 2022, which means whoever we sign this year to a max (if we do) is off the books by the time those rookies are ready for extensions. 2019 Sac pick (if high) would be ready for an extension in 2024, which is when Embiid would be ready for his 2nd NBA contract if he makes it until then.

I would be happy to be in the tax if it means Embiid, Saric, Simmons, a pick or two this year all require max contracts. How many teams have ever had this problem?

More-Than-Most
04-12-2017, 05:56 PM
If they tossed a 4 year deal at embiid for 17-20 a year he jumps at it... he would be dumb not too... The sixers are in a fantastic cap situation just stop.

More-Than-Most
04-12-2017, 05:57 PM
Harris has said in the past that he will pay what it takes to win a championship. So the Tax isn't a problem.

I was a little off in the numbers but we still have massive space left. I fully expect Okafor gone for peanuts so that's taking $5 mil off our books. Picking up the 3 I talked about only adds $3 mil to the cap.

Your trying to hard to make it sound like we're in a dire situation. FWIW, 2019 Bayless comes off the books. After next year Staus's contract is to the QO. Luwawu is cheap and productive. I doubt Andersons contract is picked up much longer. We got Sac's 2019 unprotected pick coming.

Dario and Simmons are under team control until 2021. The rookies in 2017 are cheap until 2022, which means whoever we sign this year to a max (if we do) is off the books by the time those rookies are ready for extensions. 2019 Sac pick (if high) would be ready for an extension in 2024, which is when Embiid would be ready for his 2nd NBA contract if he makes it until then.

I would be happy to be in the tax if it means Embiid, Saric, Simmons, a pick or two this year all require max contracts. How many teams have ever had this problem?

nothing more needed to be said after that

Quinnsanity
04-12-2017, 05:59 PM
Harris has said in the past that he will pay what it takes to win a championship. So the Tax isn't a problem.

I was a little off in the numbers but we still have massive space left. I fully expect Okafor gone for peanuts so that's taking $5 mil off our books. Picking up the 3 I talked about only adds $3 mil to the cap.

Your trying to hard to make it sound like we're in a dire situation. FWIW, 2019 Bayless comes off the books. After next year Staus's contract is to the QO. Luwawu is cheap and productive. I doubt Andersons contract is picked up much longer. We got Sac's 2019 unprotected pick coming.

Dario and Simmons are under team control until 2021. The rookies in 2017 are cheap until 2022, which means whoever we sign this year to a max (if we do) is off the books by the time those rookies are ready for extensions. 2019 Sac pick (if high) would be ready for an extension in 2024, which is when Embiid would be ready for his 2nd NBA contract if he makes it until then.

I would be happy to be in the tax if it means Embiid, Saric, Simmons, a pick or two this year all require max contracts. How many teams have ever had this problem?

Why would you think I'm trying hard to make things look bad for Philly? You've said it twice now. I've been as pro-Philly as anyone on this site lol. I'm just realistic.

Every owner SAYS that they'll spend whatever it takes to win a championship. Very few owners mean it. Maybe Harris is willing to go into the tax. But I think it's pretty naive to expect him to pay, say, what Cleveland has when Dan Gilbert's personal wealth is significantly higher, or what the Knicks and Lakers have paid in the past because of the luxuries their market affords them. I imagine they will be a team that spends quite a bit and they will go over the tax at some point or another. But the whole "I'll pay anything" mantra most owners spout to their fans usually winds up being BS. If Micky Arison, an owner worth something like 2.5 times as much as Harris, wasn't willing to pay the tax consistently with LeBron, I think it's fair to assume there will be a budget in Philly tighter than "anything for a ring."

I never even said that Philly's situation was dire. Being in position to offer someone in their 30's a max contract and not deal with the consequences of that deal until the final year or two is quite a good situation to be in. But by the end of a max for Lowry, Embiid and Simmons are going to have their new deals signed as well. Having all of that money committed, especially when there are so many more young guys on the way up, makes it hard to add role players on multi-year deals. That will be a necessity considering the unique style Simmons plays, Embiid's health risks and the general need for role players any team with title aspirations has. So is the situation dire? No. But you're pretending Philly will basically have unlimited money for the next half decade and that's just not true. They are going to have to make decisions. And frankly, they are eventually going to have to make decisions. Let's say Embiid, Simmons, Saric, both 2017 picks, their 2018 pick and both 2019 picks turn into the players they want them to be. There is no ****ing way any team could afford to pay all of those guys. These are 2023 and 2024 problems, but the Sixers are not going to be able to keep everyone in perpetuity. It's a long way off, but in the next few years Philly is going to have decisions to make and eventually those decisions are going to become more and more impactful. I don't see how this is remotely criticism. It's fact. It's a consequence of Hinkie getting them this many assets in the first place.

Geez War. You're one of the saner NFL posters on this site. Why do you get so defensive about the Sixers?

Green_Monster
04-12-2017, 06:06 PM
This might be one of the easier ones. If they draft Fultz/Ball/Smith JR; extend Bradley, Trade Isaiah, Trade Smart, Trade Crowder. Possibly all three together with the Nets swap for Butler. Then you have the cap to find a PF. Fultz/Ball/Smith-Bradley-Butler-FA PF-Horford.

Why would the Celtics trade their whole team AND a Nets pick for Butler. Why. Why. Why.

Goodbye #1 seed with max cap space, two high draft picks, and a young solid core. Hello #3/4 seed and no future.

More-Than-Most
04-12-2017, 06:23 PM
Why would the Celtics trade their whole team AND a Nets pick for Butler. Why. Why. Why.

Goodbye #1 seed with max cap space, two high draft picks, and a young solid core. Hello #3/4 seed and no future.

that is why i was against them going after a butler and more for them going after a cousins/PG13 or standing pat...... That being said they wont win a championship with IT... Id trade him and the nets pick for butler without a 2nd thought.

warfelg
04-12-2017, 06:31 PM
Why would the Celtics trade their whole team AND a Nets pick for Butler. Why. Why. Why.

Goodbye #1 seed with max cap space, two high draft picks, and a young solid core. Hello #3/4 seed and no future.

I'm not saying together in one deal. In parts.

Scoots
04-12-2017, 07:10 PM
If they tossed a 4 year deal at embiid for 17-20 a year he jumps at it... he would be dumb not too... The sixers are in a fantastic cap situation just stop.

If his agent is any good there is no way he jumps at that deal.

Quinnsanity
04-12-2017, 07:15 PM
that is why i was against them going after a butler and more for them going after a cousins/PG13 or standing pat...... That being said they wont win a championship with IT... Id trade him and the nets pick for butler without a 2nd thought.

They wouldn't win a championship with Butler either... especially without Isaiah. What would that make them? The Bulls with better role players, basically.

I don't see why people get so antsy with the Celtics. Why can't they just stay the course? They're already a 50-win team. If they use their cap space well this summer (Hayward would be great, but if not a rim-protector) they could get near 60 next year. That puts them within range for a 2011 Mavs type title, but more importantly, it keeps their real plan of contending in the 2020's with all three of those Nets picks in their primes intact. If they could make the Finals in the next few years? Great. But we have to realize that isn't their main goal. Why bother competing with the Warriors now when realistically they can compete with normal contender-level teams in five years?

Quinnsanity
04-12-2017, 07:17 PM
If his agent is any good there is no way he jumps at that deal.

This. Embiid will absolutely, no doubt about it, I would bet my life on it I'm so sure, get a max offer sheet from somebody. Even if he doesn't play a single game next year. He was THAT good in the games he did play. Brooklyn, Orlando, teams like that, the really hopeless ones, would take that shot in a heartbeat. There is no scenario where Embiid gets less than the max short of him getting paralyzed or something.

Green_Monster
04-12-2017, 07:53 PM
I'm not saying together in one deal. In parts.

"Trade Isaiah, trade Smart, trade Crowder. Possibly all three together with the Nets swap for Butler."

Am I reading it wrong?

warfelg
04-12-2017, 07:53 PM
They wouldn't win a championship with Butler either... especially without Isaiah. What would that make them? The Bulls with better role players, basically.

I don't see why people get so antsy with the Celtics. Why can't they just stay the course? They're already a 50-win team. If they use their cap space well this summer (Hayward would be great, but if not a rim-protector) they could get near 60 next year. That puts them within range for a 2011 Mavs type title, but more importantly, it keeps their real plan of contending in the 2020's with all three of those Nets picks in their primes intact. If they could make the Finals in the next few years? Great. But we have to realize that isn't their main goal. Why bother competing with the Warriors now when realistically they can compete with normal contender-level teams in five years?

Lets just say for ***** and giggles that they max Hayward.
Isaiah wants a max and will get it.
Avery Bradley is going to make more than $8mil in his next contract.
Smart is going to need paid soon.
They have the Net's picks the next two years coming up.
And by using the way you've planned it out with the Sixers they got to pay their picks eventually, when Crowders contract is up they'll have to pay him more than $7mil a year, they need to get another big to pair with Horford, they'll lose some depth in the next few years coming up because of expiring contracts.

Wow - they'll spend too much!

Whoops don't forget Guerschon Yabusee, Ante Zizic! And their own pick next year!

It's the same logic you used on the Sixers so it should apply here right?

warfelg
04-12-2017, 07:58 PM
"Trade Isaiah, trade Smart, trade Crowder. Possibly all three together with the Nets swap for Butler."

Am I reading it wrong?

I said possibly, didn't say it would be good or that they needed to.

warfelg
04-12-2017, 08:06 PM
Sorry Quinn what I did there was a little absurd, but the incoming picks of the Sixers aren't even 100% guaranteed to work out, heck Simmons hasn't even played yet. You're counting us having to pay guys we might not have to.

And if we get to a place that we might have to pay those guys, and we're near the cap already? I would be fine with trading someone for picks and role players and keeping a deep team that can keep the window open for many years.

Green_Monster
04-12-2017, 09:05 PM
I said possibly, didn't say it would be good or that they needed to.

Alright. I'm just saying it's not possible. Ainge wouldn't be able to make that deal before getting fired for even considering it.

GiantsSwaGG
04-12-2017, 09:05 PM
Philly doesn't have contract problems, they have talent problems.

The Sixers can stay in The Process and add some mid-grade guards to help them out.

Darren Collison, Patty Mills, Justin Holiday, CJ Miles ... guys who are just in their primes but not max players, and are solid teammates with decent all-around guard games.

We have Justin Holiday bird rights, he isn't going anywhere

Quinnsanity
04-12-2017, 09:08 PM
Lets just say for ***** and giggles that they max Hayward.
Isaiah wants a max and will get it.
Avery Bradley is going to make more than $8mil in his next contract.
Smart is going to need paid soon.
They have the Net's picks the next two years coming up.
And by using the way you've planned it out with the Sixers they got to pay their picks eventually, when Crowders contract is up they'll have to pay him more than $7mil a year, they need to get another big to pair with Horford, they'll lose some depth in the next few years coming up because of expiring contracts.

Wow - they'll spend too much!

Whoops don't forget Guerschon Yabusee, Ante Zizic! And their own pick next year!

It's the same logic you used on the Sixers so it should apply here right?

I already see that you apologized so I won't dig into how ridiculous this analogy is. I'll just make the general statement that no matter what happens in these playoffs or this summer in free agency, there is no ****ing way IT, Bradley and Smart are all on the roster opening night 2018-19. At least one of them will be gone. They aren't paying all three no matter what. That happens with or without Hayward.

Every team (except maybe a contending New York or Los Angeles team, or Cleveland apparently) has financial limitations and has to make choices about which players they can keep and which they can't, especially when outside talent is a factor as well.

warfelg
04-12-2017, 09:16 PM
I already see that you apologized so I won't dig into how ridiculous this analogy is. I'll just make the general statement that no matter what happens in these playoffs or this summer in free agency, there is no ****ing way IT, Bradley and Smart are all on the roster opening night 2018-19. At least one of them will be gone. They aren't paying all three no matter what. That happens with or without Hayward.

Every team (except maybe a contending New York or Los Angeles team, or Cleveland apparently) has financial limitations and has to make choices about which players they can keep and which they can't, especially when outside talent is a factor as well.

Cleveland right now is a great example of paying the tax to win is worth it. Then again they close to maxed out 1 guy not worth it (TT), and threw a boatload of money they didn't need to to another player (JR).

Scoots
04-12-2017, 09:58 PM
Cleveland right now is a great example of paying the tax to win is worth it. Then again they close to maxed out 1 guy not worth it (TT), and threw a boatload of money they didn't need to to another player (JR).

Paying relatively a lot to Shump and Frye too. Amazing that they are at $124+M the next 2 years with 8 players.

Also amazing that the Warriors have less than $40M under contract for next year right (assuming Durant opts out) now but that's only 5 players.

Dade County
04-12-2017, 10:35 PM
Miami should be good, just have to cut ties with Bosh and hopefully Pat can sale a key free agent into coming here. 30-11 to finish out the season.

Also I see Pat pulling off a trade within a month.

warfelg
04-12-2017, 10:42 PM
Paying relatively a lot to Shump and Frye too. Amazing that they are at $124+M the next 2 years with 8 players.

Also amazing that the Warriors have less than $40M under contract for next year right (assuming Durant opts out) now but that's only 5 players.

Clevelands problem was they were financially binded to have to pay them because they weren't able to replace any of those guys so they had to pay them, and those guys knew that, so they really raked Cleveland over the coals in getting paid.

Quinnsanity
04-13-2017, 04:45 PM
Cleveland right now is a great example of paying the tax to win is worth it. Then again they close to maxed out 1 guy not worth it (TT), and threw a boatload of money they didn't need to to another player (JR).

Cleveland is an anomaly. They have, I believe, the fourth or fifth richest owner (Gilbert's personal fortune is in excess of $6 billion), and he has had no choice to be to acquiesce to LeBron's demands when it came to paying teammates because he was not locked into a long-term deal. I would not be at all surprised to see Cleveland try to shed salary this offseason because LeBron is now signed on for a few more years, and will only be able to get the full five-year max from Cleveland afterwards (thanks to a rule he fought to change, moving the over-36 rule to the over-38 rule). I wouldn't ever expect another team to be in the exact situation Cleveland is, where they're being held hostage by a player who has already left once and means so much to the city.

Will owners go over the tax for a year or two to try to win a title? Sure. But in most cases, those are going to be short terms to avoid repeater tax penalties (see Micky Arison with Mike Miller, for example), and they typically aren't going to go THAT far over the tax (the two notable exceptions here being the Nets and Cavs, who both ran completely past it and paid huge prices because of it). There have really only been two owners that have proven willing to pay the tax consistently: James Dolan and Mark Cuban. Dolan's market makes it impossible for him to lose money, and Cuban relies on the Mavericks giving him exposure for his other businesses. Most owners aren't in that situation.

You're really aggressively trying to talk yourself into a world where the Sixers have an unlimited payroll, War. They're going to have to budget. I don't know exactly how much, and I think there's a world where they are willing to pay the tax on a short term basis much like Miami did when they were contending. But don't pretend they are cap-proof. Their problems may be several years away, but they are going to come. That's just what happens when you accumulate that many assets.


Miami should be good, just have to cut ties with Bosh and hopefully Pat can sale a key free agent into coming here. 30-11 to finish out the season.

Also I see Pat pulling off a trade within a month.

Most of that team that went 30-11 will be gone. Waiters, James Johnson, Babbit and Willie Reed were all on one-year deals. All of those guys are getting raises somewhere, some of them pretty significant. So the Heat will have plenty of cap space to operate with, but they're rebuilding half of the roster.

Plus, they have Tyler Johnson's poison pill to think about. If they spend up to the cap this year on long term deals, that'll push them into the tax next year because of Johnson's big raise. Micky Arison is not paying the tax for a non-title team. He only did it for LeBron, and as we've seen, he wasn't willing to do it forever.

So I expect the Heat to chase a major piece this summer. I don't know who, but someone. Either they'll get that guy, and the rest of the roster will be pretty bare bones, or they'll use the same one-year deal strategy they used last summer. Neither scenario gets the Heat into realistic title contention. So I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami try to tank.