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Lionel20
03-17-2017, 01:47 PM
*Active Tracking as of 3/16,

Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis, Isaiah Thomas, John Wall are all great players but it's a three way race.

I've explained in detail, my Value Shares formula in other threads. Unfortunately, I don't have time to present all the weights and measures in this thread. Value Shares is based on a set of linear weights, box stats including TOV and Personal Fouls, and a on-ball defensive rating (counting stat) assumed from Sports VU statistics. Values Share linear weights maintain an extremely high correlation with wins expected in the NBA. It values volume, durability, and player efficiency.

Russell Westbrook

USG = 39.11
MP = 2364
FG% = .419
ORB = 117
AST = 704
STL = 111
BLK = 27
TOV = 363
PF = 161
Drtg = -1.00
Value Shares = 12.29

James Harden

USG = 29.93
MP = 2476
FG% = .443
ORB = 78
AST = 765
STL = 101
BLK = 30
TOV = 395
PF = 176
Drtg = -.36
Value Shares = 12.35

LeBron James

USG = 26.44
MP = 2328
FG% = .541
ORB = 75
AST = 549
STL = 81
BLK = 36
TOV = 263
PF = 107
Drtg = 2.84
Value Shares = 12.51



Comments:

Harden, Westbrook operate at the much higher Usage Rate... Westbrook's USG on the all-time scale rivals that of Kobe Bryant '06, Allen Iverson '02, Jerry Stackhouse '01. Westbrook, arguably less efficient than each of them w/ 5.6 TOV P-36, 41% FG. But Westbrook is currently averaging a triple-double, w/ 1.8 ORB P-36.

Harden, albeit a significantly lower usage, is more efficient shooting... @ just over 44%. But opponents shooting 44.8%, shoot 47% when defended by Harden. Russell's Westbrook's differential is even worse -- 45% shooters, shoot 49%.

Enter LeBron James.

LeBron is far and away the most efficient player in the group. James' Ast/TOV ratio of 2.08, bests Harden's = 1.94, Westbrooks = 1.93

James eFG% = .591 (8th in the NBA)
Westbrook eFG% = .467
Harden eFG% = .529

Both Harden, Westbrook get to the line much more frequently than James, Harden FTA P-36 = 10.74, Westbrook a league leading = 11.18 FTA P-36. And shoot only 84%, while James is only a 67% FT shooter this year.

But even with FT% factored in through True Shooting%, James establishes himself as the most efficient shooter slightly over Harden.

James TS% = .618
Harden TS% = .617
Westbrook TS% = .547

Where James makes up ground against Harden is on the defensive end. Defense is difficult to measure, especially if only gauging through box stats. My defensive ratings look primarily at how well players shoot while defended by a particular player and how well players guarded by that defender shoot against the rest of the league.

Players that James has guarded shoot 42% against James, while shooting 46% against the rest of the league. These player tracking measures combined with the counting box stats reveal James -- to know surprise -- as the better defender.

I devised a formula to measure both non-box and box defensive impact, Defensive Points:

James Def. Pts = 1708, in 2328 MP
Westbrook Def. Pts = 1627, in 2364 MP
Harden Def. Pts = 1519, in 2476 MP

All in all, my work shows that among contenders for the Maurice Podoloff Trophy, LeBron James is currently the most valuable player.

FlashBolt
03-17-2017, 01:50 PM
Something I've been saying the entire time. LeBron has been the best player by far since the ASG.

tp13baby
03-17-2017, 04:35 PM
Everyone just looks at raw stats but I'm all aboard the Lebron train. He still is having the best year.

FlashBolt
03-17-2017, 04:55 PM
And I don't think anyone is taking into consideration that the Cavs went through numerous changes in their rotation due to injuries. With J.R. and Love out and Korver yet to be on the team, who did the Cavs have? Tristan Thompson is a rebounder but the scoring disappears when LeBron sits. Yes, even with Irving, Cavs have trouble scoring. I mean, when you have to play DeAndre Liggins and Kay Felder for substantial minutes, the team is clearly not THAT deep. Through it all, one player was consistent and is only getting better as the season drags along. He's playing more minutes than the other two candidates and puts up equally as good numbers under less USG%.

Jamiecballer
03-17-2017, 05:05 PM
And I don't think anyone is taking into consideration that the Cavs went through numerous changes in their rotation due to injuries. With J.R. and Love out and Korver yet to be on the team, who did the Cavs have? Tristan Thompson is a rebounder but the scoring disappears when LeBron sits. Yes, even with Irving, Cavs have trouble scoring. I mean, when you have to play DeAndre Liggins and Kay Felder for substantial minutes, the team is clearly not THAT deep. Through it all, one player was consistent and is only getting better as the season drags along. He's playing more minutes than the other two candidates and puts up equally as good numbers under less USG%.

thats lebron in the nutshell. he could have a staggering number of MVP's by the time it's all said and done if the voters were not so easily distracted by the new and shiny

More-Than-Most
03-17-2017, 07:44 PM
this needs to be shared with the lesser knowledgeable people that are trying to argue harden and westy.

FlashBolt
03-17-2017, 08:37 PM
last 20 games

LeBron averaging 27/9.6/9.6


58% shooting
43% from threes.

I mean... if we're talking about numbers, look no further.

More-Than-Most
03-17-2017, 08:59 PM
last 20 games

LeBron averaging 27/9.6/9.6


58% shooting
43% from threes.

I mean... if we're talking about numbers, look no further.

na bro numbers no longer matter because they favor James so now we will go by wins/losses because its the case that fits harden right now and goes against Lebron... If that was similar they would just go with last years records for vindication or the excuse that lebron plays out East even though the celtics/raptors/wizards and so on are starting to limit that excuse as well.

IKnowHoops
03-17-2017, 11:24 PM
last 20 games

LeBron averaging 27/9.6/9.6


58% shooting
43% from threes.

I mean... if we're talking about numbers, look no further.

Lebron is unreal. He is basically unstoppable with those numbers. That is straight killing it.