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Scoots
02-13-2017, 01:06 PM
1. James Harden HOU 334
2. Russell Westbrook OKC 304
3. John Wall WAS 215
4. LeBron James CLE 212
5. DeMarcus Cousins SAC 198
6. Eric Bledsoe PHO 175
7. Dennis Schroder ATL 168
8. Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 161
9. Devin Booker PHO 154
10. Stephen Curry GSW 153
11. Jeff Teague IND 152
Kyle Lowry TOR 152
13. Goran Dragic MIA 151
14. Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 147
15. Paul George IND 136

I think pace and passing have increased leaguewide and that is leading to more turnovers which is fine, but things jump out at me on the above list.

1. Harden and Westbrook are REALLY giving the ball away at an alarming rate.
2. The drop-off after the top 5 is significant.
3. The list is not as heavily dominated by PGs like it used to as players in more positions are the ones initiating offense more often now.
4. Old school ball-security-value-every-possession coaches must be screaming at their TVs.

Curry throws these show-boating passes that are optimistic at best and probably has 2 turnovers a game on those and it drives Kerr crazy. What the heck is Harden doing to get 6 TOs a game?!?

High usage often results in lower efficiency and 1-3 on the usage chart are top 5 on the list (Westbrook, Cousins, and Harden), LeBron is 15th in usage and 4th in total TOs.

The quality of teammates has some effect and that would explain Westbrook, Cousins, and Harden to some extent, LeBron's teammates are no excuse and neither really are Wall's.

I've watched games from all of these guys and when they had really high turnover numbers I usually assumed it was an off night, so I'm not a valid judge of what is going on. Why are the numbers so high for these guys?

Sactown
02-13-2017, 01:23 PM
1. James Harden HOU 334
2. Russell Westbrook OKC 304
3. John Wall WAS 215
4. LeBron James CLE 212
5. DeMarcus Cousins SAC 198
6. Eric Bledsoe PHO 175
7. Dennis Schroder ATL 168
8. Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 161
9. Devin Booker PHO 154
10. Stephen Curry GSW 153
11. Jeff Teague IND 152
Kyle Lowry TOR 152
13. Goran Dragic MIA 151
14. Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 147
15. Paul George IND 136

I think pace and passing have increased leaguewide and that is leading to more turnovers which is fine, but things jump out at me on the above list.

1. Harden and Westbrook are REALLY giving the ball away at an alarming rate.
2. The drop-off after the top 5 is significant.
3. The list is not as heavily dominated by PGs like it used to as players in more positions are the ones initiating offense more often now.
4. Old school ball-security-value-every-possession coaches must be screaming at their TVs.

Curry throws these show-boating passes that are optimistic at best and probably has 2 turnovers a game on those and it drives Kerr crazy. What the heck is Harden doing to get 6 TOs a game?!?

High usage often results in lower efficiency and 1-3 on the usage chart are top 5 on the list (Westbrook, Cousins, and Harden), LeBron is 15th in usage and 4th in total TOs.

The quality of teammates has some effect and that would explain Westbrook, Cousins, and Harden to some extent, LeBron's teammates are no excuse and neither really are Wall's.

I've watched games from all of these guys and when they had really high turnover numbers I usually assumed it was an off night, so I'm not a valid judge of what is going on. Why are the numbers so high for these guys?

I'm glad you posted this, that's straight bonkers. WB actually has a lower TOV% than last season .

Hardens TOV% is up but marginally compared to his AST% , but it's still up to almost 20%

KAT being in the top 15 is surprising

HandsOnTheWheel
02-13-2017, 02:47 PM
Not really surprising at all..

HandsOnTheWheel
02-13-2017, 02:49 PM
I'm glad you posted this, that's straight bonkers. WB actually has a lower TOV% than last season .

Hardens TOV% is up but marginally compared to his AST% , but it's still up to almost 20%

KAT being in the top 15 is surprising

Yes.

ManRam
02-13-2017, 03:01 PM
It's just usage. Russ and James are just off the charts in terms of usage...so that's going to lead to absurd raw turnover numbers. Russ is actually turning the ball less per play than last year, he's just involved in so many more plays.

Just look at TOV% (turnovers per 100 plays...it's not gonna be the most perfect stat, but it adjusts for usage)

Russ: 16.2
Harden: 19.8
Wall: 16.5
James: 16.7

Career averages (random guys I consider great passers)

Stockton: 20.8
Magic: 19.4
Zeke: 16.8
Kidd: 18.8
Nash: 19.5
CP3: 13.1 (GOAT)

mightybosstone
02-13-2017, 03:27 PM
Harden can be frustrating to watch at times in this regard. Sometimes, it really is just sloppy passing or him trying to make an amazing pass to get an easy basket when he doesn't need to. But he also gets called for a lot of offensive fouls, and the Rockets also have some young guys (Capela and Harrell) who have trouble catching those passes on pick and roll plays, resulting in turnovers that should really be 2 points.

But as ManRam said, when you consider his TO%, it's not absurdly high when compared to other all-time great distributors. I also read somewhere at some point this week that Harden leads the league in most passes per game (it was well over 60). If you pass the ball that many times per game, it's going to be picked off a few times by the other five guys on the floor.

NFLAccess
02-13-2017, 04:01 PM
The Rockets fan that I am, I did read that Harden was leading the league in turnovers but not at this alarming number.

Sactown
02-13-2017, 04:28 PM
Harden can be frustrating to watch at times in this regard. Sometimes, it really is just sloppy passing or him trying to make an amazing pass to get an easy basket when he doesn't need to. But he also gets called for a lot of offensive fouls, and the Rockets also have some young guys (Capela and Harrell) who have trouble catching those passes on pick and roll plays, resulting in turnovers that should really be 2 points.

But as ManRam said, when you consider his TO%, it's not absurdly high when compared to other all-time great distributors. I also read somewhere at some point this week that Harden leads the league in most passes per game (it was well over 60). If you pass the ball that many times per game, it's going to be picked off a few times by the other five guys on the floor.

Yeah but in his prime John Stockton was repping a nearly 5-1 Ast/To ratio, Harden isn't even at 2-1

The other PGs mentioned about were also 3-1 in their prime

FlashBolt
02-13-2017, 04:32 PM
This doesn't involve the fact that it's better for that player to have the ball regardless of the turnover %. With the ball being in Harden's hands more and less on his teammates, those turnovers are bound to happen. Prime Stockton had someone to feed it to. Harden/Westbrook don't have a player half as good as Karl Malone.

Scoots
02-13-2017, 04:43 PM
Harden can be frustrating to watch at times in this regard. Sometimes, it really is just sloppy passing or him trying to make an amazing pass to get an easy basket when he doesn't need to. But he also gets called for a lot of offensive fouls, and the Rockets also have some young guys (Capela and Harrell) who have trouble catching those passes on pick and roll plays, resulting in turnovers that should really be 2 points.

But as ManRam said, when you consider his TO%, it's not absurdly high when compared to other all-time great distributors. I also read somewhere at some point this week that Harden leads the league in most passes per game (it was well over 60). If you pass the ball that many times per game, it's going to be picked off a few times by the other five guys on the floor.

The game is wildly different now than when those all-time greats listed were playing. Efficiency and a distribution of the role of who is initiating the offense has changed considerably. So the comparison to the past is a flawed starting point.

Scoots
02-13-2017, 04:50 PM
This doesn't involve the fact that it's better for that player to have the ball regardless of the turnover %. With the ball being in Harden's hands more and less on his teammates, those turnovers are bound to happen. Prime Stockton had someone to feed it to. Harden/Westbrook don't have a player half as good as Karl Malone.

Which brings up why LeBron who is 15th in usage and has excellent people to pass to is still so high on turnovers.

FlashBolt
02-13-2017, 04:56 PM
Which brings up why LeBron who is 15th in usage and has excellent people to pass to is still so high on turnovers.

I've watched some Cavs games and it's usually his teammates fault for not getting into position. There are passes LeBron makes that are just way too advanced for some guys and they just get out of position. He's also gotten pretty lazy and careless throughout the regular season so I don't think it necessarily matters as much as it should. The question is, who else do you give the ball to on the Cavs? Kyrie Irving's skill isn't predicated on passing the ball and outside of J.R. Smith, this Cavs team doesn't have much to get others involved. Which is why James was so adamant about a playmaker. Liggins can't playmake and Felder has been terrible for them. They really miss Delly's presence off the bench both offensively and defensively. There's no chemistry with Felder AT ALL. I don't know why they even put him out there tbh.

Scoots
02-13-2017, 05:21 PM
I've watched some Cavs games and it's usually his teammates fault for not getting into position. There are passes LeBron makes that are just way too advanced for some guys and they just get out of position. He's also gotten pretty lazy and careless throughout the regular season so I don't think it necessarily matters as much as it should. The question is, who else do you give the ball to on the Cavs? Kyrie Irving's skill isn't predicated on passing the ball and outside of J.R. Smith, this Cavs team doesn't have much to get others involved. Which is why James was so adamant about a playmaker. Liggins can't playmake and Felder has been terrible for them. They really miss Delly's presence off the bench both offensively and defensively. There's no chemistry with Felder AT ALL. I don't know why they even put him out there tbh.

While that is somewhat true ... the fact is that if his teammates don't make the "right" cuts or are not capable of catching the surprise bullet passes then he shouldn't be throwing them. Love was a very good passer and initiator, the problem there is that the area of the floor he used to do that from is also where LeBron likes to be.

LeBron has more turnovers per game and more turnovers per minute than at any point in his career and he's doing it with the most expensive roster he's ever played with ... and all that is with his 2nd LOWEST usage for his career.

He misses JR and Shump ... and yeah Delly ... but GM LeBron made those choices just as he chooses to throw those passes.

LeBron being an outlier is a surprise because he is such an incredible all around player. I wonder if he's pressing for some reason, because he seems almost manic sometimes on the floor.

mightybosstone
02-13-2017, 05:52 PM
The game is wildly different now than when those all-time greats listed were playing. Efficiency and a distribution of the role of who is initiating the offense has changed considerably. So the comparison to the past is a flawed starting point.

True. But you know what you're not considering? That the players in that list weren't remotely the scorers that Harden and Westbrook are. Not only are they creating for others at an extremely high rate, but they're attacking the basket and boast insanely high USG%. If you attack the rim as much as those guys do, you're going to be called for a lot of offensive fouls and you're going to lose control of the ball every once in a while.

It's not just the passing that's leading to the high turnover rates, dude. It's that paired with their offensive aggressiveness.

JAZZNC
02-13-2017, 06:16 PM
It's interesting how frequently people are bringing up how it's the other players "fault" they didn't catch the pass etc. Stockton talked often about knowing who you are passing to and how each player had their own ways they needed to get the ball on a particular pass to be effective. A lot of this "other players fault" argument is still on the main playmaker for not knowing their teammates well enough to try and deliver the ball to them in an inopportune spot. Now given I certainly don't expect Harden, Westbrook, or LeBron to have the passing acumen of the best to ever do it but obviously these "flashy" passes/trying to force it to a guy for an easy shot that simply isn't capable of catching it isn't working and they should cut down on that. 300+ TOs at this point in the season is just astronomical.

FlashBolt
02-13-2017, 06:31 PM
Against the Spurs, Irving was supposed to get open for the three. They didn't run that play they designed after the T/O. LeBron gets the turnover. Sometimes yes, it does matter. LeBron has the ability to pass but watch a few of the games and you'll see some turnovers are really not because of his doing.

JAZZNC
02-13-2017, 07:55 PM
Against the Spurs, Irving was supposed to get open for the three. They didn't run that play they designed after the T/O. LeBron gets the turnover. Sometimes yes, it does matter. LeBron has the ability to pass but watch a few of the games and you'll see some turnovers are really not because of his doing.

I certainly wasn't suggesting they are all his fault. Just that I found it interesting how many people we placing blame on other players, when I feel like a good portion of this kinds of turnovers are just expecting more than the other guys are capable of.

Scoots
02-14-2017, 12:51 AM
True. But you know what you're not considering? That the players in that list weren't remotely the scorers that Harden and Westbrook are. Not only are they creating for others at an extremely high rate, but they're attacking the basket and boast insanely high USG%. If you attack the rim as much as those guys do, you're going to be called for a lot of offensive fouls and you're going to lose control of the ball every once in a while.

It's not just the passing that's leading to the high turnover rates, dude. It's that paired with their offensive aggressiveness.

Fair point.

Scoots
02-14-2017, 01:09 AM
Just looked it up ... Harden right now is tied for 18th on the all-time worst turnover seasons in NBA history. If he maintains this pace he'll beat the worst turnover season of all time by around 13%. Westbrook would finish as the worst of all time if not for Harden because he's just on pace to beat the record by around 9%. The top 3 spots on the all-time list are all George McGinnis, and the only players in the top 25 from the last 30 years are Harden, Westbrook, and Allen Iverson. Something is out of whack.

As a counter point, Kawhi is 7th in the NBA in usage, Isaiah Thomas is 5th in usage both are certainly the center of their team's offenses but they are turning the ball over a fraction as often.

Having looked at this stuff I think my choice for MVP has to be Kawhi.

europagnpilgrim
02-14-2017, 02:09 AM
1. James Harden HOU 334
2. Russell Westbrook OKC 304
3. John Wall WAS 215
4. LeBron James CLE 212
5. DeMarcus Cousins SAC 198
6. Eric Bledsoe PHO 175
7. Dennis Schroder ATL 168
8. Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 161
9. Devin Booker PHO 154
10. Stephen Curry GSW 153
11. Jeff Teague IND 152
Kyle Lowry TOR 152
13. Goran Dragic MIA 151
14. Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 147
15. Paul George IND 136

I think pace and passing have increased leaguewide and that is leading to more turnovers which is fine, but things jump out at me on the above list.

1. Harden and Westbrook are REALLY giving the ball away at an alarming rate.
2. The drop-off after the top 5 is significant.
3. The list is not as heavily dominated by PGs like it used to as players in more positions are the ones initiating offense more often now.
4. Old school ball-security-value-every-possession coaches must be screaming at their TVs.

Curry throws these show-boating passes that are optimistic at best and probably has 2 turnovers a game on those and it drives Kerr crazy. What the heck is Harden doing to get 6 TOs a game?!?

High usage often results in lower efficiency and 1-3 on the usage chart are top 5 on the list (Westbrook, Cousins, and Harden), LeBron is 15th in usage and 4th in total TOs.

The quality of teammates has some effect and that would explain Westbrook, Cousins, and Harden to some extent, LeBron's teammates are no excuse and neither really are Wall's.

I've watched games from all of these guys and when they had really high turnover numbers I usually assumed it was an off night, so I'm not a valid judge of what is going on. Why are the numbers so high for these guys?

All time list are some of the the so called purest PG's ever with Kidd/Stockton ranked in the top 4, Zeke is 6th, Magic 11th and Nash 13th, The Answer 17th, when you have the ball as much as those players its going to be turnovers but you live with the high assist/usage rate of those players, nothing more or less

nothing new is under the sun it is just more scrutinized in todays game

I agree with pretty much you are saying because I use to say the same thing but its hard for efficient nut heads(and non players/factors) to figure this type of stuff out

nastynice
02-14-2017, 02:59 AM
The Rockets fan that I am, I did read that Harden was leading the league in turnovers but not at this alarming number.

I wouldn't consider it alarming. Seeing how much harden and westbrooks team leans on them, it should be expected. Especially given that neither are true pg. The to per 100 possessions that was posted earlier is probably more accurate.

nastynice
02-14-2017, 03:03 AM
True. But you know what you're not considering? That the players in that list weren't remotely the scorers that Harden and Westbrook are. Not only are they creating for others at an extremely high rate, but they're attacking the basket and boast insanely high USG%. If you attack the rim as much as those guys do, you're going to be called for a lot of offensive fouls and you're going to lose control of the ball every once in a while.

It's not just the passing that's leading to the high turnover rates, dude. It's that paired with their offensive aggressiveness.

Great post. I think what harden and Westbrook are doing is amazing.

mightybosstone
02-14-2017, 09:39 AM
Just looked it up ... Harden right now is tied for 18th on the all-time worst turnover seasons in NBA history. If he maintains this pace he'll beat the worst turnover season of all time by around 13%. Westbrook would finish as the worst of all time if not for Harden because he's just on pace to beat the record by around 9%. The top 3 spots on the all-time list are all George McGinnis, and the only players in the top 25 from the last 30 years are Harden, Westbrook, and Allen Iverson. Something is out of whack.

As a counter point, Kawhi is 7th in the NBA in usage, Isaiah Thomas is 5th in usage both are certainly the center of their team's offenses but they are turning the ball over a fraction as often.

Having looked at this stuff I think my choice for MVP has to be Kawhi.

Yeah, but neither of these guys is averaging 10+ assists per game either. I think that's the missing factor.

mightybosstone
02-14-2017, 09:43 AM
You know why the turovers for these two guys probably seems unprecedented? It's because nobody has done what they're doing since Tiny Archibald and Oscar. But they didn't measure turnovers until the mid 70s, after those guys peaked.

Had they measured turnovers back then, I'd be willing to bet that both guys would have posted an insane amount of them as well in the seasons they posted 30 and 10.

IndyRealist
02-14-2017, 12:03 PM
The problem with measuring TOs against usage is that TOs are figured into usage. So you commit more TOs, your usage goes up too, and your ratio doesn't reflect the difference. Harden and Westbrook are prime examples.

Sactown
02-14-2017, 01:08 PM
I think instead of looking at the individuals turnovers it's better to look at the team overall in comparison to the league,

Both rank in the bottom 7 in the league in turnovers per game, so obviously that isn't ideal.

However Houston isn't nearly bad as a team with the Ast/To ratio ranking 11th in the league while OKC is in the bottom 4.

Also both are in the bottom half in the league in turnovers differential, I don't think you can be successful in the playoffs with those numbers

IndyRealist
02-14-2017, 01:21 PM
I think instead of looking at the individuals turnovers it's better to look at the team overall in comparison to the league,

Both rank in the bottom 7 in the league in turnovers per game, so obviously that isn't ideal.

However Houston isn't nearly bad as a team with the Ast/To ratio ranking 11th in the league while OKC is in the bottom 4.

Also both are in the bottom half in the league in turnovers differential, I don't think you can be successful in the playoffs with those numbers

This is also a very good point. People are excusing the turnovers because they handle the ball so much. Presumably, they are getting turnovers someone else would have gotten anyway. Yet their teams rank poorly in turnovers, suggesting it's not simply just shifting from one player to another, but they are creating additional turnovers.

Sactown
02-14-2017, 01:41 PM
This is also a very good point. People are excusing the turnovers because they handle the ball so much. Presumably, they are getting turnovers someone else would have gotten anyway. Yet their teams rank poorly in turnovers, suggesting it's not simply just shifting from one player to another, but they are creating additional turnovers.

Exactly, if your argument is a replacement player would turn the ball over at an equal or more frequent rate, then they should be at least an average team in those categories, but they aren't. They're below average.

I think both guys are stat chasing, doing exactly what Rando has been accused of making a career out of. The only argument to me at this point is, are they benefiting the team with their reckless style of play?

I'm not sure you can win deep in the playoffs when your PG turns the ball over 6 times a game.

Scoots
02-14-2017, 05:15 PM
You know why the turovers for these two guys probably seems unprecedented? It's because nobody has done what they're doing since Tiny Archibald and Oscar. But they didn't measure turnovers until the mid 70s, after those guys peaked.

Had they measured turnovers back then, I'd be willing to bet that both guys would have posted an insane amount of them as well in the seasons they posted 30 and 10.

Mid-70s? http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/tov_season.html

Scoots
02-14-2017, 05:19 PM
Exactly, if your argument is a replacement player would turn the ball over at an equal or more frequent rate, then they should be at least an average team in those categories, but they aren't. They're below average.

I think both guys are stat chasing, doing exactly what Rando has been accused of making a career out of. The only argument to me at this point is, are they benefiting the team with their reckless style of play?

I'm not sure you can win deep in the playoffs when your PG turns the ball over 6 times a game.

Turnovers will probably go up in the playoffs while possessions will go down.

I wish the playoffs were officiated the same as the regular season.

Sactown
02-14-2017, 05:27 PM
Turnovers will probably go up in the playoffs while possessions will go down.

I wish the playoffs were officiated the same as the regular season.

I just don't think you can beat the spurs in a half court game against more set defenses while turning the ball over like that, you can't give good team extra possessions.

Hawkeye15
02-14-2017, 05:37 PM
I'm glad you posted this, that's straight bonkers. WB actually has a lower TOV% than last season .

Hardens TOV% is up but marginally compared to his AST% , but it's still up to almost 20%

KAT being in the top 15 is surprising

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/page/nbarank_townsplayerranks/nba-player-rankings-how-much-karl-anthony-towns-improved


Beyond shot distribution and drawing fouls, Towns also has continued to grow as a playmaker as Tom Thibodeau has expanded his role in the offense. Towns' touches per game have increased from 55 to 73. Even when adjusting for an increase in minutes, Towns is averaging over 10 more touches per 36 minutes than his rookie season. No 7-footer has had the ball in his hands as often as the Timberwolves center.

With this larger role, Towns has not disappointed. Not only has he shaved his turnover percentage down from 13 percent to 12 percent, he has increased his assist rate from 11 percent to 14 percent. That might seem insignificant, but for a team that's starved for playmaking outside of Ricky Rubio, it's a boon. Towns actually has a higher assist rate than either Andrew Wiggins or Zach LaVine (before he was injured) and easily ranks second on the team in total passes per game behind Rubio.

Sactown
02-15-2017, 02:06 AM
http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/page/nbarank_townsplayerranks/nba-player-rankings-how-much-karl-anthony-towns-improved

Even with that info top 15 seems a little surprising, that's more than half of the league's primary ball handlers.

Also I imagine he gets majority of his touches in the high post?

mrblisterdundee
02-15-2017, 03:10 AM
Cost of doing bidness.

mightybosstone
02-15-2017, 09:03 AM
Mid-70s? http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/tov_season.html
Look at those numbers again, dude. McGinnis was in the ABA at the time, not the NBA. The ABA adopted turnovers in the late 60s, but the NBA didn't start keeping track of them until 1977. Hence, we have no clue how many turnovers Tiny or Oscar would have had when they posted seasons similar to what Harden and Westbrook are doing.

Hawkeye15
02-15-2017, 10:41 AM
Even with that info top 15 seems a little surprising, that's more than half of the league's primary ball handlers.

Also I imagine he gets majority of his touches in the high post?

he gets a ton of touches high post, and outside the 3 point line.

Scoots
02-15-2017, 11:26 AM
Look at those numbers again, dude. McGinnis was in the ABA at the time, not the NBA. The ABA adopted turnovers in the late 60s, but the NBA didn't start keeping track of them until 1977. Hence, we have no clue how many turnovers Tiny or Oscar would have had when they posted seasons similar to what Harden and Westbrook are doing.

You are right, sorry I missed that.

Sactown
02-15-2017, 01:11 PM
he gets a ton of touches high post, and outside the 3 point line.

Where are most of his turnovers coming from?

Hawkeye15
02-15-2017, 01:59 PM
Where are most of his turnovers coming from?

his dribble drives. He thinks he is Manu Ginoboli like 3 times a game

Sactown
02-15-2017, 02:02 PM
his dribble drives. He thinks he is Manu Ginoboli like 3 times a game

I call that the boogie drive

Hawkeye15
02-15-2017, 02:19 PM
I call that the boogie drive

pretty much. I love Towns, he is going to be a total stud, but like 3 times a game, he just loses his **** and tries to go 1-5 off the dribble, euro-stepping until he trips himself and runs over a defender.

Sactown
02-15-2017, 03:53 PM
pretty much. I love Towns, he is going to be a total stud, but like 3 times a game, he just loses his **** and tries to go 1-5 off the dribble, euro-stepping until he trips himself and runs over a defender.

Yeah that's exactly what Boogie does, he also gets hit with the hook in the post as an offensive foul.