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Lionel20
02-04-2017, 10:32 PM
We're 60% through the 2016-17 NBA Season. In this thread I'll present the top 240 (750+ minutes) players through this point in the season as the top performers have began to crystallize. In subsequent posts in this thread, I'll also present top defensive performers, and other player breakdowns and projections up until the ASG. This top 240 NBA players' list is based on info as of 2/4/2017.

Just a quick summary, my work in this thread analyzes various categories of stats into one metric -- Value Shares. Value Shares assess player performance by applying linear weights based on "Alternate Win Score" and "VORP". My individual on-ball defensive ratings estimates are formed through the differential between opponent Shooting Pct. against the individual player and the rest of the League. The defensive ratings are factored into the box stat weights and ran through my win conversion formula -- which converts the base factor into that player portion of team value or Value Shares. I've totaled the individual player Values Shares hundreds of times over multiple seasons dating back to 1950, and I'm fairly confident that Value Shares has the strongest correlation coefficient you'll find.


RK Name Value Shares
1 James Harden 10.76
2 Russell Westbrook 9.65
3 Kevin Durant 9.25
4 Anthony Davis 9.07
5 LeBron James 8.70
6 Stephen Curry 8.65
7 Giannis Antetokounmpo 8.64
8 DeMarcus Cousins 8.54
9 Jimmy Butler 8.50
10 Isaiah Thomas 8.38
11 Karl-Anthony Towns 8.19
12 Kyle Lowry 8.10
13 Kawhi Leonard 7.86
14 John Wall 7.75
15 Kemba Walker 7.31
16 Rudy Gobert 7.10
17 Marc Gasol 6.87
18 C.J. McCollum 6.75
19 Damian Lillard 6.60
20 DeMar DeRozan 6.53
21 DeAndre Jordan 6.49
22 Eric Bledsoe 6.11
23 Draymond Green 6.01
24 Gordon Hayward 6.00
25 Jeff Teague 5.91
26 Andre Drummond 5.90
27 Otto Porter 5.90
28 Kyrie Irving 5.90
29 Dwight Howard 5.89
30 Jabari Parker 5.87
31 Klay Thompson 5.79
32 Hassan Whiteside 5.77
33 Kevin Love 5.67
34 Carmelo Anthony 5.63
35 Bradley Beal 5.62
36 Chris Paul 5.52
37 Lou Williams 5.50
38 Myles Turner 5.44
39 Paul Millsap 5.37
40 Paul George 5.35
41 Trevor Ariza 5.26
42 Harrison Barnes 5.26
43 Nikola Jokic 5.22
44 Mike Conley 5.21
45 Nicolas Batum 5.16
46 Serge Ibaka 5.16
47 Brook Lopez 5.14
48 LaMarcus Aldridge 5.11
49 Marcin Gortat 5.10
50 Mason Plumlee 4.92
51 Tobias Harris 4.89
52 Danilo Gallinari 4.80
53 Goran Dragic 4.78
54 Steven Adams 4.77
55 Nikola Vucevic 4.76
56 Dwyane Wade 4.73
57 Zach LaVine 4.71
58 Thaddeus Young 4.68
59 Kristaps Porzingis 4.57
60 Al Horford 4.54
61 Jae Crowder 4.50
62 Andrew Wiggins 4.47
63 Eric Gordon 4.44
64 Dennis Schroder 4.43
65 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope4.42
66 Enes Kanter 4.38
67 Jonas Valanciunas 4.38
68 Ersan Ilyasova 4.34
69 Elfrid Payton 4.31
70 Ryan Anderson 4.28
71 Wilson Chandler 4.18
72 Tristan Thompson 4.12
73 Gorgui Dieng 4.09
74 Greg Monroe 4.05
75 Blake Griffin 3.99
76 Kenneth Faried 3.99
77 Ricky Rubio 3.98
78 Jrue Holiday 3.92
79 Trevor Booker 3.84
80 Marcus Morris 3.82
81 Taj Gibson 3.79
82 Wesley Matthews 3.76
83 Markieff Morris 3.76
84 Avery Bradley 3.74
85 Derrick Rose 3.74
86 Tyson Chandler 3.72
87 Robin Lopez 3.71
88 Zach Randolph 3.71
89 J.J. Redick 3.68
90 Devin Booker 3.67
91 Tyler Johnson 3.66
92 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 3.63
93 Victor Oladipo 3.59
94 Terrence Jones 3.54
95 Pau Gasol 3.54
96 Seth Curry 3.54
97 James Johnson 3.49
98 Jordan Clarkson 3.49
99 Jon Leuer 3.46
100 Clint Capela 3.44
101 Aaron Gordon 3.43
102 JaMychal Green 3.40
103 Maurice Harkless 3.37
104 Julius Randle 3.34
105 Nick Young 3.33
106 Andre Iguodala 3.31
107 Patrick Beverley 3.31
108 Joel Embiid 3.27
109 Marcus Smart 3.25
110 Darren Collison 3.22
111 Marvin Williams 3.22
112 Rudy Gay 3.20
113 Patty Mills 3.19
114 Robert Covington 3.18
115 Evan Fournier 3.16
116 Bojan Bogdanovic 3.15
117 Courtney Lee 3.11
118 Cody Zeller 3.10
119 Malcolm Brogdon 3.08
120 David Lee 3.03
121 P.J. Tucker 3.02
122 Allen Crabbe 3.01
123 Terrence Ross 3.01
124 Luol Deng 2.95
125 Sam Dekker 2.94
126 Tim Hardaway 2.93
127 Thabo Sefolosha 2.93
128 Dwight Powell 2.92
129 Montrezl Harrell 2.92
130 Tony Allen 2.90
131 Marreese Speights 2.89
132 Joakim Noah 2.83
133 Andre Roberson 2.81
134 DeMarre Carroll 2.80
135 T.J. McConnell 2.80
136 Deron Williams 2.80
137 Brandon Jennings 2.77
138 Frank Kaminsky 2.75
139 Austin Rivers 2.73
140 Ty Lawson 2.72
141 Evan Turner 2.71
142 Sean Kilpatrick 2.69
143 Kent Bazemore 2.68
144 Garrett Temple 2.68
145 Marco Belinelli 2.68
146 George Hill 2.63
147 C.J. Miles 2.62
148 Will Barton 2.62
149 D'Angelo Russell 2.62
150 Iman Shumpert 2.60
151 Tony Snell 2.58
152 Amir Johnson 2.51
153 E'Twaun Moore 2.50
154 Lucas Nogueira 2.49
155 Vince Carter 2.49
156 Ish Smith 2.47
157 Kyle Korver 2.47
158 Joe Ingles 2.46
159 Bismack Biyombo 2.44
160 Nikola Mirotic 2.42
161 T.J. Warren 2.41
162 Mike Muscala 2.40
163 Rodney Hood 2.39
164 Tim Frazier 2.38
165 Zaza Pachulia 2.38
166 Kosta Koufos 2.38
167 Danny Green 2.35
168 Patrick Patterson 2.35
169 Cory Joseph 2.35
170 Kelly Olynyk 2.33
171 Joe Johnson 2.31
172 Gerald Henderson 2.30
173 Rajon Rondo 2.27
174 Justin Holiday 2.27
175 Langston Galloway 2.24
176 Alex Len 2.22
177 Matthew Dellavedova 2.22
178 Luc Mbah a Moute 2.19
179 Raymond Felton 2.17
180 Jamal Crawford 2.17
181 Jameer Nelson 2.14
182 Dario Saric 2.14
183 Channing Frye 2.13
184 Justin Hamilton 2.11
185 Nene Hilario 2.09
186 Shabazz Muhammad 2.08
187 D.J. Augustin 2.07
188 Timofey Mozgov 2.07
189 Solomon Hill 2.06
190 Sergio Rodriguez 2.05
191 Jeff Green 2.02
192 John Henson 1.99
193 Matt Barnes 1.97
194 Manu Ginobili 1.97
195 Dion Waiters 1.95
196 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 1.95
197 Nik Stauskas 1.93
198 Glenn Robinson 1.91
199 Trey Lyles 1.91
200 Al-Farouq Aminu 1.88
201 Tony Parker 1.87
202 Jusuf Nurkic 1.86
203 Emmanuel Mudiay 1.82
204 Brandon Knight 1.81
205 Jamal Murray 1.81
206 Reggie Jackson 1.80
207 Doug McDermott 1.80
208 James Ennis 1.77
209 Jahlil Okafor 1.73
210 Brandon Ingram 1.71
211 Wayne Ellington 1.70
212 Rodney McGruder 1.69
213 Jerami Grant 1.66
214 Terry Rozier 1.66
215 Anthony Tolliver 1.63
216 Ramon Sessions 1.61
217 Derrick Favors 1.61
218 Norman Powell 1.58
219 Dorian Finney-Smith 1.57
220 Jonas Jerebko 1.56
221 Monta Ellis 1.56
222 Joe Harris 1.54
223 Buddy Hield 1.53
224 Dante Cunningham 1.50
225 Arron Afflalo 1.46
226 Kelly Oubre 1.45
227 Josh Richardson 1.37
228 Shaun Livingston 1.34
229 Jonathon Simmons 1.34
230 Nemanja Bjelica 1.34
231 Shelvin Mack 1.32
232 Andrew Harrison 1.24
233 Domantas Sabonis 1.17
234 Marquese Chriss 1.14
235 Richard Jefferson 1.04
236 Malcolm Delaney 0.96
237 Corey Brewer 0.90
238 Kris Dunn 0.84
239 Isaiah Whitehead 0.76
240 Boris Diaw 0.75

DanG
02-05-2017, 06:03 AM
#36 Chris Paul
#37 Lou Williams

#99 Jon Leuer
#108 Joel Embiid


Blake Griffin #75?


There's so much more but what the hell

ManRam
02-05-2017, 11:47 AM
Yeah, Chris Paul being that low is absurd. I'd be curious to hear why lionel thinks his math spits that result out. By most other all-encompassing statistical methods, he's right at the top. I don't know (or remember) exactly how you calculate this, but that is shouting at me that something is being overlooked...though more generally speaking it does seem to do a decent job aggregating player value. We're talking about a guy that's lapping the competition in RPM (http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM), for example.

tp13baby
02-05-2017, 12:54 PM
#36 Chris Paul
#37 Lou Williams

#99 Jon Leuer
#108 Joel Embiid


Blake Griffin #75?


There's so much more but what the hell

VORP is a flawed stat. PER is better honestly.

IndyRealist
02-05-2017, 02:09 PM
How do you do a weighted box score measurement back to 1950, when you didn't have turnovers, steals, blocks, or 3pt% until the mid 70s?

aman_13
02-05-2017, 03:52 PM
Yeah, Chris Paul being that low is absurd. I'd be curious to hear why lionel thinks his math spits that result out. By most other all-encompassing statistical methods, he's right at the top. I don't know (or remember) exactly how you calculate this, but that is shouting at me that something is being overlooked...though more generally speaking it does seem to do a decent job aggregating player value. We're talking about a guy that's lapping the competition in RPM (http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM), for example.

Paul has been outstanding this season. It's too bad he's been hurt this yr and yes he's way too low on that ranking.

Chronz
02-05-2017, 04:21 PM
Yeah, Chris Paul being that low is absurd. I'd be curious to hear why lionel thinks his math spits that result out. By most other all-encompassing statistical methods, he's right at the top. I don't know (or remember) exactly how you calculate this, but that is shouting at me that something is being overlooked...though more generally speaking it does seem to do a decent job aggregating player value. We're talking about a guy that's lapping the competition in RPM (http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM), for example.

If you translate their RPM into their "Wins" added, CP3 ranks lower.

Its gotta be a average vs additive thing

IKnowHoops
02-06-2017, 01:32 AM
If you translate their RPM into their "Wins" added, CP3 ranks lower.

Its gotta be a average vs additive thing

Exactly, CP3 has missed a good portion of games. If your not going off of average of games played, and instead going off totality, then Paul is not going to rank as high as he should.

Lionel20
02-06-2017, 12:16 PM
Chris Paul is #154 in Total Minutes Played, he's played in only 70% of the Clippers games this season. Blake Griffin and Joel Embiid only 60% of team games. Leuer and Williams play around 25 MPG. Value Shares is a counting stat. If these players aren't on the floor, how can they impact the game in a valuable way?

Lionel20
02-06-2017, 12:29 PM
VORP is a flawed stat. PER is better honestly.

PER understates defensive performance. My value shares formula only borrows some elements from VORP.

Giannis94
02-06-2017, 12:48 PM
This list is pefect. Giannis is right where he belongs.

Lionel20
02-17-2017, 03:44 PM
Russell Westbrook (2016-17) v Oscar Robertson (1961-62)

Russell Westbrook, as you may know, is on pace to average a triple double for the 2016-17 season. It is the last such season (double figure PTS/REB/AST per game) since Oscar Robertson's 1961-1962 Season 55 years ago.

The 2016-17 NBA season is almost 70% through, @ the AS Week break. Projecting Westbrook's season going foward, the question is which player's season is better?

A short preface about my methods.

1.) My methods culminate into a four digit number labelled value shares, which I've described in the OP.
2.) My Value Shares for the purposes of cross-era comparisons are based on box stats "adjusted" for era [pre-1973 box stats est.], defensive ratings, position-related league quality measures, etc.
3.) Playoff stats are factored into the Value Shares computations. Playoff games are typically more important than Regular Season games, therefore so are the player performances. Instead of assessing a bonus or multiplier to playoff numbers, I simply add the totals to the regular season totals prior to the application of the Value Share linear weights. Player performance is part of a players legacy.

Russell Westbrook (figures assuming he plays the remaining 25 games + est. 6 playoff games)

*Per 36 minutes
PPG = 32.3
FG% = .436
RPG = 10.46/ORB =
APG = 11.39
TOV = 5.76
PF = 2.63

MP = 3158
Est. Value Shares = 17.69

Oscar Robertson

*Per 36 minutes
PPG = 20.1
FG% = .535
RPG = 5.64/ORB = 1.44
APG = 9.46
TOV = 3.81
PF = 2.54

MP = 3519
Value Shares = 16.09